Latest market news

Analysis: Vietnam emerges as polymer hub amid trade war

  • : Petrochemicals
  • 19/10/07

Vietnam is positioning itself as southeast Asia's top polymer hub as it indirectly benefits from the US-China trade war.

The trade war has created two positive spillovers for Vietnam, through the increased availability of cheaper US-origin cargoes and the emergence of new conversion investment from China.

Vietnam is a key importer of polymers, with estimated imports of 5.59mn t/yr of polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in 2018, according to the Vietnam Plastics Association (VPA).

PE imports totalled 1.73mn t/yr, while PP imports were at 1.34mn t/yr last year, the VPA data show.

Vietnam's imports typically come from the Middle East, South Korea and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) member countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.

But the emergence of US PE supply is adding new flows. More resins from the US that were originally bound for China are instead expected to make their way to Vietnam, especially given the country's attractive import duty structure.

US producers are steering clear of China because of restrictive duties placed on most polymers. The tariff rate on some US imports from China, including certain polymer grades, is scheduled to rise to 30pc from 25pc on 15 October.

By contrast, Vietnam has set its import duty at zero for PE and at 3pc for PP from most origins outside southeast Asia. Asean countries are exempt from duties when selling PP to Vietnam.

Import reliance

Vietnam does not have any existing PE production, making it highly dependent on imports. The country imports around 70pc of its domestic PP requirements.

Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemicals (NSRP) produces 370,000 t/yr of PP, while Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical (BSR) operates a 150,000 t/yr PP unit, according to Argus data.

Most PE and PP is sold to Vietnam directly by producers or by international traders with distribution channels in the country. Global polymer traders such as Vinmar and Tricon have started to export US-origin PE from Houston into Vietnam and other Asean nations in their own branded bags in recent months.

Shipment timings from the US to Vietnam vary from two to three months, depending on occasional port congestion in Houston. Asean-origin material benefits from shorter transit routes, ranging from a few days to two weeks.

The largest polymer distributor in Vietnam by far is OPEC Plastics, thanks to its significant distribution channels across the country for PE, PP, polystyrene (PS), ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), PVC and PET. OPEC Plastics, which also exports PE out of Houston, has an international presence in Asean, China, Russia and the Middle East.

Chinese investment

The Vietnamese polymer industry is increasingly attracting newer investments from Chinese convertors, which are shifting their factories to the country to circumvent restrictive tariffs on US-origin PE. Taiwan's Formosa Plastics, South Africa's Sasol and global producers ExxonMobil and Lyondellbasell are among the companies that have added new PE capacity in the US this year. The absence of extensive China distribution has helped drive Vietnam's fast emergence as a key outlet in Asia for these newer US capacities.

The wave of relocations of Chinese convertors to Vietnam has happened relatively quickly, with only slightly more than a year having elapsed since the trade war first escalated. The investments in Vietnam also come as China is forging ahead with its Belt and Road initiative to expand its international investments in southeast and central Asia.

Three out of 10 new convertor units in Vietnam have now been bought by polymer factories with Chinese owners, a major machinery manufacturer said.

Chinese convertors with a presence in Vietnam have had to act quickly to preserve their businesses, which have already been hit by sluggish domestic growth in downstream sectors such as automotive and packaging in China.

High-level US-China talks will resume this week in Washington, but prospects for a deal that would resolve the trade war between the two countries remain remote.

Vietnam-EU FTA

The new Vietnamese factories, most of which are Chinese-owned, are not just expected to benefit from buying cheaper PE resins from the US but will also soon be able to sell finished products to Europe at preferential duty rates.

The EU and Vietnam signed a free-trade agreement (FTA) in June that will progressively eliminate nearly all customs duties on goods traded between the two sides. The FTA is likely to be formally ratified later this year.

Vietnam may also emerge as an alternative export destination for newer Chinese PP resin producers. Guangxi Petrochemical and Sinopec Beihai operate polymer units in Guangxi, close to the China-Vietnam border.

Vietnam will add to its existing PP capacity and introduce PE production for the first time in the coming years. South Korean textiles and chemicals maker Hyosung will start a new petrochemical complex in Vietnam's Ba Ria-Vung Tau province early next year. Its new 300,000 t/yr PP unit is scheduled to come on stream in the coming months.

In the longer term, Long Son Petrochemicals, majority owned by Thailand's SCG, is scheduled to start up a new 450,000 t/yr PP unit and 1mn t/y PE plant in 2024 in Vietnam's Vung Tau, Argus data show.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

Hong Kong unveils green maritime fuel action plan


24/11/18
24/11/18

Hong Kong unveils green maritime fuel action plan

Shanghai, 18 November (Argus) — The Hong Kong special administrative region government unveiled a green maritime fuel action plan on 15 November, aimed at making the region a top-tier centre for green fuel bunkering and reducing carbon emissions from the port of Hong Kong. According to the Action Plan on Green Maritime Fuel Bunkering, Hong Kong aims to curb carbon emissions in line with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which targets 20% emissions reduction in international shipping by 2030 and a 70% reduction by 2040, compared with 2008 levels, before achieving net-zero emissions by or around 2050. The plan also targets to reduce carbon emissions from Hong Kong-registered ships by at least 11pc, compared with 2019 levels, and have 55pc of diesel-fuelled vessels in the government fleet switch to green maritime fuels by 2026. Hong Kong will target lower carbon emissions from the Kwai Tsing Container Terminals by 30pc, compared with 2021, and ensure that 7pc of its registered ships use green maritime fuels by 2030. Separately, the plan outlines that Hong Kong will have completed the development of the Code of Practice (CoP) on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and green methanol bunkering by 2025. The government will also invite industry expressions of interest by end-2025 for the conversion of a land parcel near the port in Tsing Yi South for green maritime fuel storage. Hong Kong is expected to achieve an annual sale of over 200,000t of green marine fuels by 2030, with over 60 LNG or green methanol bunkering services for ocean-going vessels a year, according to the plan. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Korea’s Plagen plans Azeri green methanol plant


24/11/15
24/11/15

Cop: Korea’s Plagen plans Azeri green methanol plant

Baku, 15 November (Argus) — South Korean clean energy firm Plagen has signed an initial agreement to develop a green methanol production plant near the port of Baku, Azerbaijan. Plagen expects that the plant, which it described as Azerbaijan's first green methanol facility, will produce 10,000 t/yr of the fuel by 2028. It will use Plagen's technology, the firm said at a side event at the UN Cop 29 climate summit today. The methanol will be produced from agricultural waste and wood waste, including hazelnuts shells and almond shells, which will be sourced from Azerbaijan, Plagen chief executive officer John Kyung said. The production process yields 96t of methanol from 300t of biomass. The produced methanol will be used as bunker fuel, and contribute Baku port's goal to reach "carbon neutrality" by 2035 amid increased traffic through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, as ships seek alternatives to the fraught Suez Canal route. Kyung said today that the firm also has plans to produce green methanol at Indonesia's Batam to supply as bunker fuel to Singapore, the biggest bunkering port in the world. Plagen also expects 32,000 t/yr of green methanol production by 2027 at a plant in Taebaek, South Korea. This is up from 10,000 t/yr as previously planned . By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil starts US, Canada PE-dumping probe


24/11/14
24/11/14

Brazil starts US, Canada PE-dumping probe

Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — Brazil's government has started an anti-dumping investigation into polyethylene (PE) produced in the US and Canada. The country's foreign trade committee Gecex launched the investigation on 13 November following allegations from the sole Brazilian PE producer, major petrochemical company Braskem, that these countries are exporting PE to Brazil at prices below what is considered fair market value. Overall imported PE prices into Brazil have been in a downward trend since July, pushing down Braskem prices in the domestic market. Gecex said it will analyze export prices and compare them with those in the domestic markets of both countries. If dumping is confirmed, corrective measures may be applied to protect the Brazilian industry. A preliminary analysis has identified significant evidence of dumping, justifying the continuation of the investigation, Gecex said. It added that there was a considerable increase in PE imports from these countries — especially from the US — during the period being investigated, which may have contributed to the decline in domestic prices and harmed the domestic producer. The preliminary analysis of dumping evidence covered 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024. The damage analysis period extended from 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2024. The anti-dumping investigation into PE imports from the US and Canada was preceded by an increase in import taxes on a number of polymers and chemicals to 20pc from 12.6pc, including PE, polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), effective since 15 October. Repercussions An international trader specializing in polymer imports into Brazil told Argus that if anti-dumping duties are applied, his company's PE imports from the US to Brazil could drop by 20-30pc. "The decision has a 10-month deadline to be presented, but I believe it will be implemented and possibly announced earlier," he said, adding that this is another Braskem maneuver to regain its traditional 70pc market share in the Brazilian market. If confirmed, the measure is expected to have a significant impact on the Brazilian economy, especially on the plastic products manufacturing industry, as imports of finished plastic products could rise substantially, the trader said. One US-based trader selling US and Canada PE into Brazil sees the possible application of anti-dumping measures on the products as a structural development. "We will need to source PE in different production regions such as Asia and the Middle East, developing new ways of logistics, cash flows, ways of payment, to make it work flawlessly as it currently works with North American PE," the trader told Argus . "Prices should go up and we will increase our margins on PE sales." Brazil's January-September PE production increased by 1pc to 1.7mn t from the same period in 2023, while domestic sales fell bu 2pc to 1.24mn t. In contrast, PE imports jumped by 45pc to 1.54mn t, resulting in an apparent consumption of around 2.8mn t, up by 20pc higher year-on-year and a record high. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dutch PVC recycler to file for bankruptcy


24/11/14
24/11/14

Dutch PVC recycler to file for bankruptcy

London, 14 November (Argus) — Dutch PVC recycler Vinylrecycling will file for bankruptcy on 19 November after a legal battle with the Dutch government over clarifications regarding PVC waste exports. The company recycles 20,000-30,000 t/yr of PVC waste. Vinylrecycling has been in a prolonged legal battle with the Netherlands Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate (ILT) over exports to third countries including Guatemala, India and Algeria of what the ILT described as "PVC waste" but the company declared to be "raw material". The ILT then restricted exports for Vinylrecycling and fined the company. Vinylrecycling has been appealing this decision, with a judgment expected by 1 January, but the company said "some creditors no longer have the patience to wait," and the company will be filing for bankruptcy. "The Council of State is expected to issue its verdict, hopefully before January 1, but that might be too late for our company. No one will step in to take on the 20,000 to 30,000t of PVC we recycle, so I'm concerned it may all end up in a landfill," chief executive of Vinylrecycling Huib van Gulik told Argus . "Although rebuilding our company will be a complex task, we will speak with the trustee to explore whether a restart is possible or if we will contest the bankruptcy," the company added. "Vinylrecycling warmly invites potential investors, strategic partners, and other interested parties to discuss a restart and/or a contestation of the bankruptcy with us or, later, with the trustee," the company said. Vinylrecycling produces regrind, granulate and micronised powder rPVC. By George Barsted Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more