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IMF downgrades global growth forecast

  • : Crude oil, Emissions, Metals, Natural gas
  • 19/10/15

The IMF yet again has marked down its projections for global economic growth this year and next because of the US-China trade war.

The IMF, in an update to its World Economic Outlook, projected today that global GDP will grow by 3pc this year, down by 0.2 percentage point from its forecast in July, and lower than the 3.6pc growth in 2018. The forecast for 2020 was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4pc. IMF forecasts are widely used in the modeling behind key oil demand projections, including the IEA's.

The change in the latest update of its key forecast is the fifth consecutive downward revision by the IMF, each tied to the gradual escalation in tariffs affecting trade between the world's two largest economies, the US and China.

"We are, once again, downgrading growth for 2019 to 3pc, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis," IMF director of research Gita Gopinath said. The downgrade would have been even greater if not for the efforts by central banks in advanced and emerging economies to offset the effect of trade wars on their economies, the IMF said. "With central banks having to spend limited ammunition to offset policy mistakes, they may have little left when the economy is in a tougher spot," it warned.

Both the US and China said they made progress in the latest round of talks in Washington on 10-11 October, but the negotiations' only tangible outcome was a delay in the US' planned increase in tariff rates on about half of imports from China. "We look forward to more details on the recent tentative deal reached between China and the US," Gopinath said.

The IMF forecasts US GDP growth at 2.4pc this year and 2.1pc in 2020. It projects China's economy will grow by 6.1pc this year and 5.8pc next year. Analysis by IMF economists suggests implementation of all announced tariffs could lower GDP growth next year by 0.6 percentage points in the US and 2 percentage points in China.

The IMF lowered the 2019 forecast for almost every major advanced and emerging economy. "The global economy is in a synchronized slowdown," Gopinath said. India's economy is projected to grow by 6.1pc this year, a 0.9 percentage point reduction from the previous forecast. The eurozone economies are forecast to grow by 1.2pc this year, the same as the forecast for the UK.

The IMF cut Saudi Arabia's projected growth this year to 0.2pc this year, down from its previous 1.9pc estimate. It explains the downward revision by the weakness in oil prices and the extension of the Opec/non-Opec production restraint agreement. The effect of the 14 September attacks on Saudi oil facilities "is difficult to gauge at this stage but adds uncertainty to the near-term outlook," the IMF said.

It projects that Iran's economy will shrink by 9.5pc this year as a result of US sanctions on the country's oil sector. The IMF previously estimated the decline in Iran's GDP at 6pc this year.

Another target of US sanctions, Venezuela, is projected to see the decline in its GDP accelerate to 35pc this year, shrinking its economy to barely a third of the level in 2013.


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25/05/05

Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April

Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April

Mexico City, 5 May (Argus) — Activity in Mexico's manufacturing sector shrank for a 13th straight month in April, with declines accelerating in production and new orders, according to a survey of purchasing managers. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 45.5 in April from 46.9 in March, finance executives' association IMEF said, moving further below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. US tariffs imposed since March are adding pressure to Mexico's manufacturing sector, which makes up about a fifth of the national economy. The auto industry, responsible for roughly 18pc of manufacturing GDP, may be the hardest hit by the new measures, including a 25pc tariff on auto parts that took effect 3 May. Mexico remains the top exporter of vehicles to the US, supplying 23pc of all US auto imports in 2024. But IMEF said tariffs compound broader, mostly domestic headwinds, including reduced public spending and investor uncertainty stemming from sweeping legal and regulatory reforms. New investment has stalled since late 2024. The PMI index for new orders fell by 2.5 points to 41.8, the lowest since June 2020. Production dropped by 2.5 points to 43.6, while employment fell by 0.6 point to 46.4. New orders and production have now been in contraction for 14 straight months, and employment for 15. Inventories saw the steepest drop in April, falling 4 points to 46.3 — sliding from expansion to contraction — as manufacturers accelerated shipments after tariff implementation dates were confirmed. IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI — which covers services and commerce — remained in contraction for a fifth consecutive month but edged up by 0.5 points to 49.0 in April. Within that index, new orders rose by 0.6 points to 48.1, employment increased 1.3 points to 48.6 and production held steady at 47.5. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alcmene withdraws ExxonMobil Miro shares offer


25/05/05
25/05/05

Alcmene withdraws ExxonMobil Miro shares offer

Hamburg, 5 May (Argus) — Austrian company Alcmene has withdrawn from its plans to buy ExxonMobil's share in German refining joint venture Miro. Alcmene told ExxonMobil of the withdrawal on 29 April, putting an end to a drawn-out sales process. ExxonMobil agreed in October 2023 to sell its 25pc stake in Miro, which operates the 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery in Germany. The sale was initially put on hold by a court order following a petition by fellow shareholder Shell in April 2024. The court in Karlsruhe dismissed ExxonMobil's appeal in the final instance in July, prohibiting the company from selling its stakes without prior agreement by Shell. Shell holds 32.25pc in the venture, Russian state-controlled Rosneft has 24pc and US firm Phillips 66 has 18.75pc. Rosneft's German business has been under state trusteeship since September 2022. Rosneft plans to sell all of its German assets. By Natalie Müller and Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California refinery closures panic politicians


25/05/05
25/05/05

California refinery closures panic politicians

Houston, 5 May (Argus) — California could lose up to 17pc of its refining capacity within a year, triggering major concerns about its tightly supplied and frequently volatile products market. US independent Valero announced on 16 April that it will shut or repurpose its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco by April 2026. The firm is also evaluating strategic alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. And independent Phillips 66 said in October that it would shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in the fourth quarter of this year. Valero's Benicia announcement brought a quick reaction from state officials. Governor Gavin Newsom on 21 April urged regulators at the California Energy Commission (CEC) to work closely with refiners through "high-level, immediate engagement" to make sure Californians have access to transport fuels. He has ordered them to recommend by 1 July any changes to California's approach that are needed to ensure adequate fuel supply during its energy transition. The message appears to have hit home. The CEC delayed a vote on new refinery resupply rules to provide time for additional feedback and consultation with stakeholders after the Valero announcement. The CEC also plans to introduce a rule this year for minimum inventory requirements at refineries in the state as well as possible rules on setting a refiner margin cap. The new rules are part of an effort by Newsom to mitigate fuel price volatility in California, including the signing of two pieces of legislation known as AB X2-1 and SB X1-2. Refiners have been unhappy with the state's regulatory and enforcement environment for some time. It is "the most stringent and difficult" in North America owing to 20 years of policies pursuing a move away from fossil fuels, Valero chief executive Lane Riggs says. The long and short of it Refinery closures are fuelling long and short-term supply concerns in California. The most immediate is an anticipated supply crunch at the end of this summer. Phillips 66's plan to shut the Los Angeles refinery by October will deal a significant blow to the state's refining capacity and is likely to occur at a time when Californian gasoline prices are most prone to volatility. The US west coast is an isolated market, many weeks sailing time from alternative supply sources in east Asia or the US Gulf coast. California's strict product specifications further limit who can step in when refinery output falls. The state sometimes sees price spikes in late summer and early autumn because the switch from summer gasoline blends leaves local inventories low while in-state refineries adjust to producing winter grades. California gasoline prices spiked in September 2022 when stocks fell to a nine-year low on the west coast. Spot deliveries hit a record $2.45/USG premium to Nymex Rbob futures in the Los Angeles market at the time (see graph). Production problems at several refineries in southern California led to another spot price surge in September 2023. The California Air Resources Board (Carb) permitted an earlier switch to cheaper winter gasoline production in response to both events. Refinery closures will force California to rely on imports in the longer term, leaving the state exposed to stretched supply lines. State regulators' proposed solutions have raised eyebrows. The CEC's Transportation Fuels Assessment report in August last year included a policy option in which California would buy and own refineries, which the state is not pursuing. Another option involves state-owned products reserves to allow rapid deployment of fuel when needed. The CEC and Carb regulators will also release a draft transportation fuels transition plan later this year. By Eunice Bridges and Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Labor win may aid low-carbon Fe, Al sectors


25/05/05
25/05/05

Australia's Labor win may aid low-carbon Fe, Al sectors

Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — The Australian Labor party's victory in the country's 3 May parliamentary election could support low-carbon iron and aluminium developers, providing policy clarity and public capital to the sectors. Labor's victory provides more certainty around Australia's A$14bn ($9.06bn) green hydrogen subsidy scheme, which will help steel producers transition towards hydrogen-powered steel furnaces. The opposition Coalition during the election pledged to scrap the programme, which will allow producers to claim A$2/t of green hydrogen produced from 2027. Australian steelmaker NeoSmelt and South Korean steelmaker Posco are developing electric iron smelters in Western Australia (WA) that produce hot-briquetted iron, which is used in the green steel process. Both projects will initially rely on natural gas but may transition to hydrogen-based processing as hydrogen production rises. Australia's hydrogen tax credits may prove crucial given ongoing hydrogen production challenges. South Australia's state government closed its Office of Hydrogen Power SA on 2 May, following a funding cut earlier this year. Labor can now also move forward with plans for A$2bn in low-emissions aluminium production credits, beginning in 2028-29. Smelters will be able to claim credits per tonne of low-carbon aluminium produced, based on their Scope 2 emission reductions. The party's proposal does not include any blanket credit for producers. Labor's aluminium production credits are aimed at supporting the Australian government's goal of doubling the country's share of renewable power from about 40pc to 82pc by 2030. Australian producers export about 1.5mn t/yr of aluminium, according to industry body Australian Aluminium Council, from four smelters located around the country. Green iron funding Labor's election win also secures its A$1bn lower-emission iron support pledge , first announced in late February. Half of the fund will go towards restarting and transitioning the 1.2mn t/yr Whyalla steelworks in South Australia into a green steel plant. The other half will support new and existing green iron and steel projects to overcome initial funding barriers. Labor has not allocated any funding through the programme yet. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s election gives LNG, fuels sector certainty


25/05/05
25/05/05

Australia’s election gives LNG, fuels sector certainty

Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — Australia's governing Labor party's second majority term could mean that changes to the offshore permitting regime promised last year are signed into law, while east coast LNG businesses will avoid a planned reservation system proposed by the opposition. Labor's victory at the 3 May election combined with the election of fewer members from the Greens party and climate-focused independents, could mean it faces less pressure to cancel fossil fuel projects. But it will remain reliant on the Greens to pass laws through the nation's upper house — the senate — meaning Labor may need to negotiate the passage of bills with the leftist party if the Liberal-National-based coalition opposes its measures. The Greens ran on a promise to ban new coal, oil and gas projects but won fewer seats than in 2022 because of preference flows. A federal decision on the lifetime extension of the Woodside Energy-operated 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG delayed by Labor, is now looking more positive for the firm. The firm sees approval as vital to progressing its Browse gas development offshore northwestern Australia. Voters' rejection of the opposition Coalition on the nation's east coast means its policy to reserve a further 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) from the Gladstone-based LNG exporters will not proceed. The result provides an opportunity for certainty and stability for the energy sector, upstream lobby Australian Energy Producers said. The group urged the government to focus on new supply as Australia's gas reserves for domestic use rapidly deplete. The government will need to specify exactly how it aims to secure supplies to ensure stable supply, once coal-fired generators retire at the end of the 2020s and into the 2030s. This is because the nation's integrated system plan is based on Labor's policy of reaching 82pc renewable energy in the power grid, backed up by about 15GW of gas-fired power. Industry will await further direction stemming from the Future Gas Strategy which canvassed solutions to Australia's declining gas supply including new pipelines, storage and seasonal LNG imports. Permitting concerns In the government's previous three-year term, a series of court-ordered requirements to consult with affected Aboriginal groups briefly disrupted multi-billion dollar LNG developments. Labor promised to specify through new laws exactly which groups must be consulted before approvals could be granted. But these were dropped from the agenda in early 2024 following opposition by the Greens. Labor's resources minister Madeleine King blamed the Greens for obstructionist manoeuvres on this legislation, but it remains unclear if and when Labor might introduce such laws. Conversely, the Coalition promised to end government support for anti-gas lobbies such as law group the Environmental Defenders Office — set to continue under Labor. In liquid fuels, Labor's victory should boost Australia's electric vehicle (EV) sales, with emissions standards laws set to remain enforced. The Coalition had said it would soften the laws because of concern over cost of living pressures. Plans to temporarily cut the fuel excise will also not progress. Australia's EV take-up has stalled, and industry has blamed this on poor investment in recharging infrastructure and other policy settings, including the removal of the fringe benefits tax exemption for plug-in hybrid car models. A re-elected Labor government is likely to further policy towards a mandate for sustainable aviation fuel or renewable diesel, given the growing share of Australia's emissions projected to come from the transport industry. It pledged A$250mn ($162mn) for low-carbon liquid fuels development in March , for low-carbon liquid fuels development in March, as part of its commitment to the nascent sector. Local market participants are optimistic that further biofuels support will be provided as urgency to meet net zero ambitions builds, including a 2030 target of 43pc lower emissions based on 2005 levels. About A$6bn/yr of feedstocks like canola, tallow and used cooking oil are exported from Australia, while existing ethanol and biodiesel producers are running underutilised plants, making about 175mn litres/yr at present, because of poorly-enforced blending mandates. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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