Hedge fund enters LME fob China HRC market

: Metals
19/11/22

Drakewood Capital Management has traded the LME's China steel coil export contract, in the first reported trade by a hedge fund since the contract launched in March.

Hedge fund participation in the contract is a crucial step in broadening the liquidity pool ahead of widespread use by physical market participants to hedge risk. Seven banks are using the contract as a risk management tool on behalf of clients, but hedge funds provide a counterparty to take the other side of trades.

The first bank traded the contract in June, while first Chinese bank started trading last month.

The fob China hot-rolled coil (HRC) contract had a record month in October with 7,736 lots traded. Open interest ended October at 3,501 lots. The contract traded 2,653 lots from 1-18 November.

The small size of the lots, at 10t each, limits risks in the early development of the market.

New participants are testing back-office processes and taking small directional positions at this stage, but as volume picks up hedge funds will be able to take larger and more complex positions, said Joel Parsons, a Singapore-based ferrous metals trader at Drakewood.

The LME fob China HRC contract provides exposure to the world's largest producer and consumer of steel, which accounts for half of global production and is closely watched for its influence on other markets. The US-China trade war has also factored into the development of the contract by adding to market uncertainty, as HRC is a major industrial input and so acts as a gauge of China's macro-economic strength.

Intense competition from Indian coil exporters weighed on the region's seaborne prices in August-October, sending the underlying Argus fob China HRC index down by 15pc to $426/t on 29 October from $501/t on 1 August. Indian exports surged while Chinese exports fell to an eight-month low in October.

A pause in the US-China trade war, stronger-than-expected construction demand in China and the end of India's monsoon season gave a boost to demand outlooks, lifting the fob China HRC index by 5pc to $450/t this month. The LME contract settles against the monthly average of the index, which is at $436/t so far in November.

The forward curve has bulged for December-January on a bullish demand outlook for China's winter season, when steel inventories build ahead of spring demand. December and January traded at $452.50/t and $452/t respectively yesterday, a premium to November at $443/t, with the rest of the curve backwardated to January 2021 at $417/t.

In early September, the curve was backwardated all the way from November at $442/t to May 2020 at $427/t. The curve then moved into contango, with June and July 2020 at $427.50/t and $431.50/t respectively, before weakening for the remainder of next year with December 2020 at $428/t.

The LME now has 10 liquidity providers listed for its ferrous contracts after the entry of Mettalex, Mercury Derivatives Trading and Theme International Trading in October-November.

By Chris Newman

LME fob China HRC forward curve $/t

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24/12/18

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

London, 18 December (Argus) — Expectations that weak seaborne coking coal prices in the last quarter of 2024 will carry over to 2025 in the face of low steel prices is pointing to further consolidation among US coking coal producers. Consol Energy and Arch Resources set up the most significant merger of 2024 for the US market , with the merged company expected to generate $110mn-140mn of cost savings and "operational synergies" within 6-18 months of the close of the transaction. But continuing cost pressures will likely lead to closures of smaller high-cost mines, not uncommon in the past when US coking coal prices have reached a down cycle. The fob Australia premium low volatile (PLV) coking coal price fell from this summer's high of $260/t in early July to average $203.46/t from the start of October, translating to prices that are below cost for many US producers. In recent years, price volatility and lack of liquidity, particularly in the Atlantic market, has meant many buyers have chosen to buy at index-linked prices, often with fob Australia indexes. The fob US east coast price has averaged $192.84/t for the current quarter, while the high volatile A fob Hampton Road price has averaged $186.47/t in the same period, prices cited by many US producers at near or even below cost after taking into consideration rail and port handling charges. Lower cost longwall miners like Alpha Met Resources reported an average sale cost of $114.27/short ton ($125.96/t) in the third quarter for metallurgical coal, Arch Resources reported $93.81/st for the same and Warrior Met Coal indicated $120.21/st. But others such as Corsa are in clear loss-making territory at $169/st. After freight and handling charges, many of these producers will have fob equivalent costs closer to $170-190/t or even above $200/t for smaller continuous mining operations. The poor margins has also meant US producers like Ramaco have cut back their guidance while lost output capacity has failed to lift prices . Last month, many US producers have already looked to reduce shifts by extending time off for the holidays and hunting season. But this has still failed to stem supplies, particularly in the high volatile coal segment where traders and suppliers that had secured tonnes earlier this year or more recently via term contracts have been offering prices at steep discounts for on-water cargoes to Asia and port stocks in China. US producers have been focusing their efforts on sales to Asia in the face of weak demand in Europe, leading to the absence of much incremental coking coal demand in the region since last year. In a time of high fob Australia prices, margins for US sales to Asia might have been attractive. But with low Australian prices and competition from Russia and Mongolia continuing to grow, the second half of 2024 has seen poor margins for US sales to Asia. While Russian mining costs have risen, they are still well under the levels in the US. Industry sources peg average production cost for open-pit mining in the Kuzbass region at $18.37-35.75/t, excluding value-added tax (VAT), while underground mining stands at $24.83-60.58/t, excluding VAT, according to sources at Russian coal mining companies. Russian coal is also typically discounted to account for sanctions and difficulties with payments, and more recently the export duty on Russian coking coal was removed. US president-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose import tariffs on all imports from China has drawn concern in the market about China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US coal. In a well-supplied market and the presence of strong competing producing countries at key import destinations, many US producers expect they will have to absorb any increase in tariff to secure sales to China. At a recent industry conference in Prague, several participants indicated the fob Australia PLV index should be in the region of $220-225/t to be sustainable for the wider industry. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Japan to continue filling bulk scrap demand

24/12/18

Viewpoint: Japan to continue filling bulk scrap demand

Shanghai, 18 December (Argus) — Asian steel scrap buyers will probably remain risk-averse next year and continue to focus on purchasing Japanese scrap in small bulk cargoes over US scrap on large vessels. Japanese scrap, which has a shorter lead time and more flexible shipment sizes, is often considered by Asian buyers to be lower risk compared with US scrap, which has a longer delivery period and less wiggle room in parcel sizes, particularly when steel and scrap demand is weak. South Korean scrap imports fell by 44pc year on year to 1.83mn t in the first 10 months of 2024, but Japanese scrap's market share increased to 72pc from 70pc the previous year. Vietnamese buyers, which have been largely absent from the US scrap export market for over a year, imported 2mn t of Japanese scrap in January-October, rising by 63pc on the year and accounting for 44pc of Vietnam's total imports. The Philippines, once a net exporter of ferrous scrap, has imported more scrap in recent years, with Japan supplying 92pc of its scrap imports during the first three quarters of 2024. The growing steelmaking capacity and infrastructure investments in southeast Asia will further drive demand for Japanese scrap in the region in the coming years. Japanese scrap suppliers may also have greater appetite to sell to overseas markets in the coming year because lower domestic scrap demand in the country and the weaker yen against the US dollar have widened the price spread between domestic and exported scrap. The spread between Vietnam imported scrap prices and Japan domestic collection prices increased to $77/t on 6 December from around $53/t on 5 January after Tokyo Steel — the domestic scrap price setter in Japan — made multiple price cuts of more than ¥10,000/t ($66/t) since July, while prices for HMS 1/2 80:20 cfr Vietnam have dropped by only around $40/t. Japan's leading steel mills plan to transit more production from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces, which may increase domestic scrap demand after 2027. But in the short term, prices are still expected to remain largely dependent on conditions in the wider ferrous market. Japanese crude steel production in the first 10 months of 2024 totalled 70.2mn t, down by 3.7pc year on year. Major steelmakers in Japan have cut their production forecasts for the 2024-25 fiscal year, citing a weaker domestic market. Demand for building materials is expected to decline further owing to rising construction costs and persistent labour shortages. Japanese steel imports rose by 10pc year on year to 2.8mn t in April-September, the highest since 2014, according to the finance ministry. Many Japanese mills fear that rising imports could further pressure the domestic steel market in 2025 if there is no government intervention. With the Japanese ferrous market expected to remain clouded by lower domestic steel production and higher steel imports, any excess scrap supply will be sold in the export market to reduce sales pressure in the domestic market. Japanese scrap exporters are facing challenges such as volatile exchange rates and vessel shortages, which have limited their export appetite in the past few months. Freight rates for scrap cargoes from Japan have increased by over $10/t since October and led to lower offers from Japanese suppliers and a wider bid-offer spread in the last quarter of 2024. But traders anticipate that this bottleneck will gradually ease in early 2025. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's BHP, Rio Tinto in electric smelter tie-up

24/12/18

Australia's BHP, Rio Tinto in electric smelter tie-up

Sydney, 18 December (Argus) — The Australian NeoSmelt resource consortium will build a major pilot electric iron smelter in Kwinana, Western Australia, supporting a broader push towards low-emissions steel. The consortium is led by the country's largest iron miners, BHP and Rio Tinto and steel producer BlueScope. Western Australia's government has agreed to support the project through a A$75mn ($47.5mn) investment, it said on 17 December. NeoSmelt expects the site to produce between 30,000-40,000t of molten iron at the site once it is operational by 2028. The site will use natural gas to process ore. The group will also look at moving towards hydrogen-based production processes over time. But the NeoSmelt development is still at an early stage. The consortium will make a final investment decision on the plant sometime in 2026. Other firms are also currently working on low-carbon smelting projects in the state. Global mineral firm Fortescue plans to house an electric furnace at its green iron plant at its Christmas Creek mine. The company hopes to produce 1,500t/yr of iron at the facility, beginning in 2025. Another younger metals firm Green Steel of WA (GSWA) is developing a similar smelter in the state's Mid-West region. GSWA is scheduled to start producing 2.5mn t/yr of iron at the plant, using natural gas and hydrogen, in 2028. The company will make a final decision on the project next year. The recent push towards green steel production comes after federal government initiatives designed to support sustainable production across the country. The Australian government announced in its most recent budget that it will focus on supporting aluminium and steel decarbonisation efforts over the next decade. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina touts quarterly economic growth

24/12/17

Argentina touts quarterly economic growth

Montevideo, 17 December (Argus) — Argentina's macroeconomic conditions continue to stabilize, with growth picking up and inflation trending down. The economy expanded by 3.9pc in the third quarter of the year compared to the previous three months, according to preliminary data from the statistics agency (Indec). It was the first quarter-on-quarter growth since President Javier Milei took office a year ago during a deep recession with a promise to overhaul the long-struggling economy. The economy contracted by 1.9pc in the fourth quarter of 2023, by 2.1pc in the first quarter of 2024 and by 1.7pc in the second quarter. While the economy is still down by 2.1pc compared to a year earlier, the government presented the data, together with falling inflation, as evidence that Milei's strategy to deregulate and shrink the state is working. Inflation in November was 2.4pc, a huge decline from the 25pc when Milei took office in December 2023. Accumulated inflation through November was 112pc. According to Indec, private consumption was up by 4.6pc from quarter to quarter and investment by 12pc. The country has had a fiscal surplus for nine months. The currency has stabilized after a brutal devaluation early in 2024 of more than 50pc. Exports grew by 3.2pc from the second quarter and are the most positive economic indicator so far this year. Exports in the first three quarters of 2024 were up by 20pc compared to a year earlier. The energy sector in the GDP calculation increased by only 0.4pc in third quarter, but it plays an important role in the trade balance. The country will have a trade surplus this year close $20bn compared with a $6.9bn deficit in 2023, according to the central bank. Argentina registered its first energy surplus in 15 years in the first half of 2024, exporting $4.81bn and importing $3.79bn. Crude exports were up by 60pc compared to 2023. Oil and gas trade organization Ceph forecasts an energy surplus of $25bn by 2030, based on projections of crude output of 1.5mn b/d and natural gas at 230mn m³/d. The government has reduced from 18 to eight the number of cabinet ministries and eliminated hundreds of regulations. Deregulation and transformation minister Federico Sturzeneggar announced in early December that approximately 4,500 regulations would be eliminated in 2025. But the austerity measures have caused a spike in poverty, with more than 50pc of the population living below the poverty line, up from 41.7pc in December 2023. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

24/12/17

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

Houston, 17 December (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has determined that the main chamber of the Wilson Lock on the Tennessee River near Florence, Alabama, will remain closed until spring 2025 as repairs continue. The Wilson Lock, the first lock on the Tennessee River, closed on 25 September after cracks in the lock gates on both the land and river sides were discovered. The main lock was closed to prevent further damage in the main chamber, although the auxiliary chamber was kept open for navigation. The Corps had been eyeing an earlier opening date for the main chamber since the start of November. Although months of repairs have taken place, the Corps resolved to keep the main chamber closed to preserve the lock and maintain personnel safety. The Corps, in partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is still assessing the root cause of the cracking. A second de-watering of the gate is scheduled for the first three months of 2025 to repairs. No official date has been set for the lock reopening, although some barge carriers have heard of a late April opening date. A regular 15 barge tow has endured 5-6 days of delay through the lock on average, according to carriers. The Corps' Lock Status Report on the Wilson Lock reported a nearly two-week delay for tows navigating through the lock. This has been costly for shippers by forcing them to pay delay fees. Wilson Lock is the second lock in Alabama to undergo a lengthy closure this year. Most lock and dams along the US river system are over 70 years old, likely resulting in more closures in the coming year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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