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Viewpoint: US poised for energy policy rush

  • : Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 19/12/26

President Donald Trump's administration is setting course to rapidly implement changes to energy sector regulations and open new areas to drilling ahead of next year's presidential election.

The administration's plan is to wrap up high-profile regulatory actions, hold contentious oil and gas lease sales in Alaska and finish as much energy-related litigation as possible in the last year of Trump's first term. Completing those actions early next year would make it harder for them to be overturned if a Democratic candidate wins in the 3 November elections.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is handling some of the highest profile of those regulations. They include two different rules expected for release in the first quarter of next year that would first ease and then potentially rescind methane restrictions on the oil and gas industry. A separate EPA rule, expected as soon as January, could freeze fuel-economy standards for cars and pickup trucks after 2020, boosting fuel use by 500,000 b/d by 2030.

EPA separately on 18 December asked a federal court to expedite a lawsuit from states and environmentalists challenging a decision this year to revoke the ability of California and other states to enforce their own clean vehicle standards that would increase to the equivalent of 46.7 miles/USG by 2025. EPA wants the court to hold arguments in the case by spring, which it said would give automakers certainty over their compliance obligations.

The US Interior Department's most significant upcoming action is a plan to hold its first oil and gas lease sale in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a once-protected area estimated to hold 5.7bn-10.4bn bl of crude. Another priority will be finishing up a plan that could increase by 55pc the amount of federal acreage in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska available for leasing.

Interior's push for a massive expansion of offshore oil and gas leasing that would open up more than 95pc of federal waters to drilling has been placed on hold, in the wake of a court ruling that halted leasing off the coast of Alaska. Oil industry officials expect no movement on that plan until after the 2020 election because of opposition to offshore drilling in Florida and other swing states.

Interior is also defending in court its decision last year to weaken its implementation of the Endangered Species Act, a high-profile case that critics say would make it far harder for more species to gain protection. And the agency next year plans to propose a revision to oil, gas and coal royalty regulations, after a court this year halted its decision to block tougher rules.

Federal agencies in many cases are racing against the clock to finish regulations because the Congressional Review Act, a statute that allows lawmakers to disapprove recent rules by a majority vote. Republican lawmakers used the law in 2017 to throw out coal mining rules and oil payment transparency regulations. The law only applies to regulations within 60 legislative days, meaning rules finished by summer would not be subject to disapproval.

By Chris Knight


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25/04/24

Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only

Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only

Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Southwest Airlines withdrew its full-year 2025 and 2026 financial forecasts due to economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs. The US-based passenger airline limited its outlook to just the second quarter 2025 during its first quarter earnings release on Thursday, saying a projected economic slow-down would pressure unit revenue to be flat and possibly fall by 4pc compared to the second quarter 2024. In the second quarter available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — are expected to rise by 1-2pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. First quarter ASMs were down by 1.9pc to 41.3bn from the same three-months in 2024, which was in-line with their expectations. Southwest's first quarter load factor, or the percentage of seats filled, dropped by 4.4pc from the prior year to 73.9pc. First quarter total operating expenses, including jet fuel, dropped by 2.2pc from the previous year to $6.65bn. Southwest paid $2.49¢/USG for jet fuel in the first quarter, a decrease of 16pc from 2024. Fuel efficiency improved in the first quaer due more fuel-efficient aircraft, with 500mn USG consumed, down by 4.6pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. Expected lower jet fuel prices should help ease operating cost in the upcoming months. Southwest expects to pay $2.20¢/USG to $2.3¢/USG for jet fuel in the next quarter. Southwest narrowed its first quarter 2025 net loss to $149mn from $231mn a year earlier. By Carrie Carter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Water levels delay Tennessee River lock reopening


25/04/24
25/04/24

Water levels delay Tennessee River lock reopening

Houston, 24 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will delay the reopening of the Tennessee River's Wilson Lock by three weeks after high floodwater disrupted repair plans. The Wilson Lock is now planned to reopen in mid-June or July, the Corps said this week. The lock's main chamber has been closed since September after severe cracks were found in the structure. The Corps initiated evacuation procedures so personnel and equipment could be removed before any water entered the dewatered lock and ruined repairs after high water appeared too close to the lock's edge. The water did not crest above the temporary barrier the Corps installed to keep water out. Delays at the lock averaged around 10 days as of 24 April, according to the Corps. Barge carriers fees have been in place for each barge that must pass through the auxiliary chamber of the lock since 25 September, when the lock first closed. Restricted barge movement placed upward pressure on fertilizer prices in surrounding areas as well. The lock still requires structural repairs to the main chamber gates, including the replacement of the pintle components, the Corps said. This is the fourth opening delay the Corps have issued for the Wilson Lock, with the prior opening dates being in November , then April and then in June . The Wilson Lock will enter its eighth month of repairs next month. By Meghan Yoyotte and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Investment funds slash net long position on Ice TTF


25/04/24
25/04/24

Investment funds slash net long position on Ice TTF

London, 24 April (Argus) — Investment funds have slashed their TTF net long positions on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) nearly in half so far in April, with commercial undertakings' net long position conversely rising. Investment funds' net long position on Ice dropped to 86TWh in the week ending 17 April, well below the 146TWh at the end of March, and was as low as 73TWh on 11 April ( see net positions graph ). The near-halving of their net position was driven entirely by the closing of longs, which dropped to 308TWh by 17 April from 383TWh on 28 March. In contrast, shorts dropped by only 16TWh in the same period, the exchange's most recent Commitments of Traders report shows. This left investment funds' total amount of open positions at 529TWh by 17 April, well down from 620TWh on 28 March. Global commodity market turmoil in recent weeks following the US' ‘liberation day' on which president Donald Trump announced tariffs on nearly every country may have prompted funds to reduce their exposure to gas market. The resulting fallout in global commodity, stock, bond and currency markets would have hit multi-strategy hedge funds in particular, which had exposure to many different assets, some of which are thought to be among the largest players in the overall investment fund category of participant. Wider macroeconomic factors rather than market fundamentals have driven the TTF this month, according to many traders, with daily TTF movements frequently having tracked wider moves across global macroeconomic indicators such as the S&P 500 index. In contrast with investment funds' sharply reduced net long position, commercial undertakings — the other largest category of market participant, mostly comprising firms with retail portfolios — more than doubled their net long position to 85TWh on 17 April from 33TWh on 28 March. This means commercial undertakings' and investment funds' net positions now have nearly exactly converged, with the difference between them having been as wide as nearly 350TWh as recently as early February. Commercial undertakings first flipped to a net long position in the week ending 28 February, and the net long has steadily increased every week since then. While investment funds significantly reduced their overall exposure to the TTF, commercial undertakings increased both their long and short positions in April. Total shorts rose by about 34TWh between 28 March and 17 April to 1.055PWh, while longs soared by 86TWh to 1.140PWh. This leaves their total open positions at about 2.195PWh, more than quadruple investment funds' 529TWh. The data could suggest that commercial undertakings took advantage of hedge funds unwinding their long positions, leading to a reallocation of about 90TWh of liquidity from speculative positions to risk reduction contracts. The large majority of commercial undertakings' overall open positions are risk reduction contracts, which total 1.457PWh out of aggregate open positions of 2.195PWh, or 66pc. In contrast, investment funds hold zero risk reduction contracts, making it likely that all of their interest is speculative. Commercial undertakings' risk reduction shorts increased only by about 7TWh between 28 March and 17 April to 747TWh, but longs soared by 92TWh over the same period to an all-time high of 710TWh. As recently as 28 February, risk reduction longs were as low as 550TWh, meaning an overall increase of nearly 200TWh in less than two months. The only other time in recent history when risk reduction longs increased at such a rapid pace was in 2018, when they jumped from 445TWh on 30 July to a peak of 644TWh on 15 October ( see risk reduction graph ). One explanation for such a distinct increase in risk reduction longs while shorts remained roughly even could simply be that utilities have purchased winter contracts instead of the more usual practice of hedging physical gas bought for summer injection by selling winter contracts. Typically, summer prices are below winter thanks to lower seasonal consumption, so a utility would buy the summer to inject the gas and sell the winter for when it will be withdrawn, locking in a profit margin. But because summer prices this year remained above winter, there was no commercial incentive to lock in a negative spread, meaning utilities may simply have opted to buy winter contracts to cover their expected demand. But since the turn of April, TTF summer-month prices have increased their discount to the front-winter, providing more of an incentive to inject gas. By Brendan A'Hearn Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Commercial undertakings' risk reduction positions TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Valero's Mexico fuel import permit reinstated: Update


25/04/24
25/04/24

Valero's Mexico fuel import permit reinstated: Update

Include market comments, details of Valero operations in Mexico. Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Independent US refiner Valero said its permit to import fuel into Mexico has been reinstated after being suspended earlier this month. The temporary suspension was imposed by Mexico's tax authority SAT on 9 April as part of the country's efforts to fight fuel smuggling, Valero said. The suspension was lifted after the company reached out to stakeholders and customs officials in Mexico and was "quickly exonerated of any wrongdoing," Valero said Thursday morning during its first quarter earnings call. Valero on 23 April sent a notice to customers in Mexico saying its import operations had resumed, but the two-week stop disrupted supply in several regions. Some cities, like Irapuato in Guanajuato state northwest of Mexico City, remain without product, according to market sources. "Although this is all unfortunate and created significant supply disruption for our customers, it is part of an effort in Mexico to limit the import of illegal fuel," Valero chief financial officer Gary Simmons said in the earnings call. Fuel smuggling is rampant in Mexico, with illicit fuel sales accounting for up to 30pc of Mexico's 1.2mn b/d of gasoline and diesel demand, according to finance ministry estimates. Most of the illicit supply enters Mexico through mislabeling oil products at the US-Mexico border as petrochemicals, additives or biofuels, which are not subject to excise taxes on diesel and regular gasoline. Earlier this month Mexico stopped the movement of all fuel trucks as part of fight against fuel smuggling. Valero top importer to Mexico Valero is the largest private fuel importer in Mexico, operating an extensive distribution network supported by its refineries in the US Gulf coast and a system of terminals, pipelines, rail routes, truck routes and waterborne logistics. Its fuel sales accounted for 10pc of Mexico's gasoline and diesel demand on 9 April, according to the company. The company imports road fuels by pipeline from its Corpus Christi and Three Rivers refineries in Texas to the 195,000 bl NuStar storage terminal in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas. Valero's waterborne fuel deliveries arrive at the 2.1mn bl Sempra terminal in Veracruz, from which it supplies other terminals near Puebla, Mexico City and Guadalajara. Valero stores fuel at four private-sector terminals in Mexico, with over 4mn bl of capacity. The company is also expected to start storing fuel at the new 1.1mn bl OTM maritine terminal in Altamira, Tamaulipas, in the near future. The company operates a network of over 290 retail fuel stations in Mexico and also supplies fuel to other retailers and fuel marketers. In Mexico Valero holds gasoline, diesel and jet fuel import permits valid through 2038. Valero is one of only a handful of private-sector companies with such permits, as Shell, Marathon and ExxonMobil hold permits to import only gasoline and diesel. Private-sector companies started importing fuel into Mexico in 2016 after the market opened to more competition, but under former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's administration, the energy ministry (Sener) cancelled dozens of fuel import permits. By Eunice Bridges and Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Valero's Mexico fuel import permit reinstated


25/04/24
25/04/24

Valero's Mexico fuel import permit reinstated

Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Independent US refiner Valero said its permit to import fuel into Mexico has been reinstated after being suspended earlier this month. The temporary suspension was imposed by Mexico's tax authority SAT on 9 April as part of the country's efforts to fight fuel smuggling, Valero said. The suspension was lifted after the company reached out to stakeholders and customs officials in Mexico and was "quickly exonerated of any wrongdoing," Valero said Thursday morning during its first quarter earnings call. Fuel smuggling is a rampant problem in Mexico, with illicit fuel sales accounting for up to 30pc of Mexico's 1.2mn b/d of gasoline and diesel demand, according to finance ministry estimates. Most of the illicit supply enters Mexico through mislabeling oil products at the US-Mexico border as petrochemicals, additives or biofuels, which are not subject to to excise taxes on diesel and regular gasoline. Earlier this month Mexico stopped the movement of all fuel trucks as part of fight against fuel smuggling. In Mexico,Valero holds gasoline, diesel and jet fuel import permits valid through 2038. Valero is one of only a handful of private-sector companies with such permits. Shell, Marathon and ExxonMobil hold permits to import only gasoline and diesel. Valero is the largest private fuel importer in Mexico. On 9 April, its sales accounted for 10pc of Mexico's gasoline and diesel demand, according to the company. Private-sector companies started importing fuel into Mexico in 2016 after the market opened to more competition, but under former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's administration, the energy ministry (Sener) cancelled dozens of fuel import permits. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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