China to sign US trade deal next week: Update

: Crude oil, Metals, Petrochemicals
20/01/09

Adds details throughout

Chinese government officials will visit Washington next week to sign a "phase one" trade deal with the US, China's commerce ministry said today.

The comments confirm US President Donald Trump's timeline for the signing ceremony announced last week, further boosting the prospects of the two countries reaching a deal that will at least put on hold their trade dispute.

Chinese vice-premier Liu He will lead a delegation to Washington over 13-15 January to sign the first-phase deal, the commerce ministry said. "The teams of both parties are in close communication on the specific arrangements for signing the agreement," it said.

The commerce ministry did not comment on the content of the agreement. The outline of the phase-one deal was agreed last month, averting a round of tariffs covering an additional 30pc of the volume of US imports from China that were scheduled to take effect on 15 December.

The deal outline released by the US and described by Chinese officials points to an ambitious document covering financial services, currency rates and a mechanism for enforcing trade disputes. But a lack of detail from both sides suggests negotiations may be continuing on rolling back existing tariffs and commitments by China to buy US energy and other commodities.

US officials say that Beijing has committed to buying $200bn of US energy, agricultural and other products and services in 2020-21, nearly doubling its total US imports. But Beijing said its energy purchases will be based on market fundamentals.

The Chinese government has made small steps towards market liberalisation since talks on the interim deal concluded in mid-December. It announced plans last month to remove import tariffs on a handful of products including some US-origin polymers, and today provided more details of reforms to its upstream oil and gas sector that will widen access for foreign companies. But it is unclear if such measures will carry much weight in talks with the US Trump administration, which appears focused on securing promises from Beijing to raise its purchases of US products.

And in another possible sign of disagreement, the commerce ministry today pointedly declined to confirm Trump's plans to visit Beijing or his assertion that talks will begin soon on a second-phase agreement.

"Regarding the second stage of consultations, I have no more information to share with you," the ministry said.

By Kevin Foster

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25/05/15

Pakistan container scrap trade pressured by surcharges

London, 15 May (Argus) — Ferrous scrap suppliers are facing higher costs from new surcharges announced by major container shipping firms on trading routes to Pakistan, following recent geopolitical tensions in the region. Shipping lines have announced imminent emergency operational cost recovery surcharges on containers for trading routes to and from Pakistan following the recent escalation in tensions between the country and India. This resulted in days of fighting, with India launching attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in retaliation for an April terrorist attack in Kashmir. India-Pakistan relations have stabilised after the countries agreed a tentative ceasefire on 10 May , but concerns remain over security in the region. Major global container shipping line Maersk has imposed charges of $300/container to Pakistan from every country, excluding those in Asia-Pacific, starting from 21 May or 13 June, depending on the country. Surcharges of $300-500/container have been implemented on trade from Pakistan. Other lines, including MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have announced surcharges on imports and exports ranging from $300-800/container, depending on line, route and trade direction, which will start coming into effect from mid-May for most regions, with those for other regions such as North America coming into effect in the first half of June. The Pakistan and Indian governments at the start of May imposed shipping orders banning merchant vessels bearing the other country's flag from stopping at their ports. And shipping lines changed trading routes across the region following the outbreak of hostilities and prior to the ceasefire announcement. But Maersk said this week it is "witnessing a gradual return to normalcy" at port operations in India and Pakistan, and will continue to monitor the situation closely. Indian imports/exports can remain on board through Pakistan ports, while in India, Pakistan imports are allowed to transit through Indian ports but not exports, the firm said earlier this week. Any increase to freight costs is likely to further limit exporters' interest in selling to the region, which has already slowed significantly, market sources said. As a result, some container exporters and freight forwarders do not expect the surcharges to remain in place. Containerised scrap suppliers said prices to Pakistan would need to rise by around $10/t to absorb the additional surcharges, but many noted difficulties, with buyers in the country not lifting their bids and their own purchasing prices upstream remaining firm. The last containerised shredded scrap sales to the south of Pakistan were reported in the $370-375/t range, which buyers are heard to be continuing to target. But domestic prices for shredded scrap in key supply regions remain firm, with inland yards not willing to accept lower prices sought by suppliers. Exporters would need one of the two price points to move to make trade with Pakistan workable. By Corey Aunger and Brad MacAulay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU stainless prices to continue to fall: Assofermet

25/05/15

EU stainless prices to continue to fall: Assofermet

London, 15 May (Argus) — An fall in European producers' cold-rolled stainless steel prices and input costs in the third quarter will make output more competitive against imports from Asia, including China and Indonesia, according to Alessandro Bettuzzi, sales director at Italian distributor Oiki Acciai Spa and co-ordinator of Italian steel and scrap association Assofermet's stainless steel division. On the sidelines of last week's Made in Steel event in Milan, Bettuzzi said high service centre stocks and weak demand in key sectors like automotive and household appliances are likely to mean a weak third quarter in Europe, particularly in Italy, with its many distribution centres. "I'm not positive for the next month," Bettuzzi told Argus . "This is because fundamentals are so weak, and prices of scrap nickel are falling, which will produce lower prices than today's level." A further fall in energy costs will also bring down prices, keeping imports at bay, he added. Following January-February's mostly stable prices in Europe, Bettuzzi said the cold-rolled flat product market fell by €100/t from mid-March. The downtrend will probably continue until July, he said, given the pattern of weakening demand over the past eight months. The Argus assessment for stainless steel 304 cold-rolled 2mm sheet delivered northwest Europe had risen to €2,655/t at the end of February from €2,500/t at the end of December, but had fallen to €2,525/t by the beginning of May. Traders surveyed by Argus see further declines, as mills focus on capacity utilisation and filling order books. "The auto and appliances industries at this moment are going through a major lull," Bettuzzi said. "These sectors are very important to absorb stainless steel." Bettuzzi reiterated Asoffermet's view that a recovery can only happen if the EU starts thinking about safeguarding downstream end-products, instead of focusing on protecting upstream steelmakers. "If final consumption disappears, everything upstream will disappear," he said. "Asoffermet is really pushing for this. The EU is focusing too much on the producer." Energy prices remain a problem for European producers, and Bettuzzi said investment in renewables is the long-term solution. "For Italy, it is all out how we negotiate as we are obliged to buy energy from other countries, which can cause fluctuations." Bettuzzi cautioned against allowing Asian semi-finished products, such as slab, to enter Europe exempt from duty, and suggested applying the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) or a similar duty. "If we apply duties only on coils and sheets, but do not impose duties on semi-finished products, they will come in at 25pc less from Asia compared to Europe," he said. Bettuzzi highlighted flanges, heavily imported by Italy, which have been arriving duty-free. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

25/05/15

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Global battery demand across electric vehicle (EV) and storage applications rose to almost 1TWh in 2024, according to energy watchdog the IEA, in its latest report. Demand was largely driven by EV sales growth, with EV battery demand growing by more than 25pc on the year to over 950GWh, mainly propelled by electric cars which accounted for over 85pc of EV battery demand, said the IEA in its EV Outlook 2025 . The almost 1TWh of demand is expected to more than triple to over 3TWh in 2030 under the IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps), which is based on countries' prevailing policies , with more demand from electric trucks despite electric cars still making up the majority of demand. EV battery demand rose by more than 30pc on the year in China, and currently takes up 59pc of total global EV battery demand. US demand has also grown, with the country taking up 13pc of the total share, on par with the EU. The IEA expects critical minerals supply surplus to persist over the next few years but cautioned that depressed prices could dissuade future investments and lead to supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. "It will take about a decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing primary mineral demand," said the IEA, citing feedstock limitations. Recent raw material prices for battery recyclers in China, the largest battery recycling market, remain higher than their battery recycling yields such as recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt, a Chinese battery recycler told Argus . Domestic battery recycling plants operating rates are "not high," the battery recycler said, with very thin activity in the domestic black mass market. Excessive battery capacity Global battery cell manufacturing capacity grew by almost 30pc in 2024 to 3.3TWh, more than triple the battery demand, according to the report. South Korean battery manufacturers accounted for over 400GWh of overseas battery manufacturing capacity in 2024, much higher than the 60GWh from Japanese manufacturers and 30GWh from Chinese manufacturers. South Korea's battery manufacturing is poised to further expand to more than 1TWh in 2030, almost double that of Chinese manufacturers, if all announced projects materialise. Global manufacturing capacity could grow to about 6.5TWh in 2030, about double the demand projected under IEA's Steps scenario, if all committed projects are realised. This would also entail China's share of global manufacturing capacity weakening from 85pc in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030. LFP battery share rises Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries made up nearly half of the global EV battery market in 2024, said the IEA. Nearly all electric car LFP batteries sold in Europe or US were produced in China, which has a "de facto monopoly", said the IEA, with LFP becoming more attractive to European original equipment manufacturers looking to cut production costs. South Korean battery makers' market share in the EU fell to 60pc last year, down from 80pc in 2022, displaced by Chinese battery producers because the chemistry of LFP makes it more competitive, according to IEA. But top South Korean battery makers — LG Energy Solution , Samsung SDI , SK On — have all unveiled plans to mass produce EV LFP batteries over the coming years, looking to compete in the space. Japanese battery makers meanwhile saw their US market share fall to around 48pc, eroded by South Korea. South Korea took up 35pc of US market share last year, up from 20pc in 2022. Japanese domestic LFP development is also facing challenges, with Japanese carmaker Nissan recently cancelling a LFP plant in Kyushu as it goes through a restructure. LFP's penetration in the southeast Asia, Brazil and India markets is rising even quicker, with LFP battery electric car shares surpassing 50pc in each of the countries in 2024, according to the report. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Казахстан перераспределил тариф на транзит нефти в Китай

25/05/15

Казахстан перераспределил тариф на транзит нефти в Китай

Riga, 15 May (Argus) — Казахстан с 1 мая перераспределил ставки тарифа на транзит российской нефти в Китай. Суммарная стоимость транспортировки сохранилась в размере $15/т без учета НДС, при этом прокачка сырья по участку Прииртышск (граница России и Казахстана) — Атасу подорожала, а поставка по маршруту Атасу — Алашанькоу подешевела, сообщил 10 апреля казахстанский трубопроводный оператор Казтрансойл (КТО). С 1 мая транспортировка российской нефти по участку Прииртышск — Атасу подорожает до $7,24/т с $4,23/т, а прокачка по маршруту Атасу — Алашанькоу подешевеет до $7,76/т с $10,77/т без учета НДС. Данное направление используется для транзита 10 млн т/год российской нефти в Китай через Казахстан. ________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических обзоров рынка транспортировки грузов в странах Каспийского региона и Центральной Азии — в отчете Argus Транспорт Каспия . Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook

25/05/15

IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook

London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA has nudged up its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and 2026, citing better macroeconomic forecasts and the effects of lower oil prices. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based watchdog raised its projected increase in oil consumption by 20,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2025, bringing overall demand to 103.9mn b/d. It increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 760,000 b/d. In its previous OMR the IEA cut its oil demand forecasts for 2025 by 310,000 b/d after the US' announcement of an array of import levies in April. But the IEA said today the tariff supply shock appeared less severe than initially implied, pointing to subsequent US trade arrangements with the UK and China. US talks with other countries continue. "Subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies' permanence and economic impact," the IEA said. But it said policy uncertainty continued to weigh on consumer and business sentiment, and it sees oil consumption growth slowing to 650,000 b/d between now until the end of 2025, from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter of the year. Its demand growth forecast for 2025 is 320,000 b/d lower than at the start of the year. The IEA increased its global oil supply growth forecast by 380,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d in 2025, with almost all the rise accounted for by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ cuts. It nudged its oil supply growth forecast for 2026 up by 10,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d. Eight Opec+ members earlier this month agreed to continue accelerating the pace of their planned unwinding of 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts for June. The IEA again revised down its supply growth forecasts for the US, mainly because of the effects of lower oil prices on US shale producers. It downgraded US growth by 50,000 b/d to 440,000 b/d for 2025 and by 100,000 b/d to 180,000 b/d for 2026, and said US tight oil production in 2026 would contract on an annual basis for the first time since 2020. The IEA said sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela are a key uncertainty in its forecasts. It noted that Russian crude supply grew by 170,000 b/d in April as crude prices fell below the G7 $60/bl price cap. The IEA's balances show supply exceeding demand by 730,000 b/d in 2025 and by 930,000 b/d in 2026. It said global observed stocks rose by 25.1mn bl in March, with preliminary data showing a further rise in April. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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