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IMF flags further cut to global economic forecasts

  • : Crude oil
  • 20/06/15

The IMF is likely to revise down its projections for the global economy this year to reflect the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.

The group predicted in April that the world economy would shrink by 3pc this year. It plans to release a new forecast on 24 June that is likely to reflect the "extremely challenging conditions" in the real economy, managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.

"We are likely to revise downward further on the basis of incoming data, which tells us that most countries are doing worse than we had projected," Georgieva said on 13 June.

Governments across the world have introduced fiscal support totalling $10 trillion, which has helped put a floor under the economy and is likely to reduce the longevity of the crisis, she said. Financial markets have recovered almost to pre-pandemic levels thanks to sizeable injections of liquidity. But the IMF warned of a "very dramatic collapse in trade" and speculation about a substantial reversal of global economic integration.

Georgieva's comments came as rising concerns about a second wave of coronavirus cases sent oil prices lower. Beijing has reported almost 100 new infections in recent days and shut down some parts of the city after going almost two months without any community spread. Cases are also rising in some areas of the US after lockdowns began to be lifted.

August Brent crude futures were down by 1.9pc at $38/bl at just before 12pm Singapore time (04:00 GMT), after earlier dropping as low as $37.56/bl. The July WTI contract fell by 2.8pc to $35.25/bl.

"This pandemic has been, and continues to be, like dominoes falling," Georgieva said, noting how the impact has spread from China and Asia to Italy, the US, Brazil, south Asia and Africa. "And we all know that it is not over until it is over everywhere."


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25/01/07

Libyan oil exports resilient in 2024

Libyan oil exports resilient in 2024

London, 7 January (Argus) — Libyan crude exports dipped by just 2pc last year despite several months of politically-motivated blockades at ports and oil fields. The country exported 973,000 b/d across its 12 crude grades in 2024, according to Argus tracking data, only marginally down on 2023 when 989,000 b/d was loaded, the second-highest year for exports since the civil war in 2011. Exports averaged more than 1mn b/d in six out of the 12 months last year and hit 1.15mn b/d in December — the highest monthly average since February 2021. A rise in upstream activity over the past year has enabled Libya to boost its oil production to 1.4mn b/d in recent months — the highest in over a decade — and this has helped to offset the impact of disruptions to loadings earlier in 2024. Libya's largest oil field, El Sharara, was shut by protestors on 2-21 January last year and again on 3 August . The field feeds into the light sweet Esharara stream which is exported from the Zawia terminal. Esharara loadings fell to just 41,000 b/d in January 2024, sharply below the grade's average exports of 135,000 b/d in 2023. Exports of the grade plunged to just 20,000 b/d in August and ground to a complete halt in September for the first time since May 2022. A leadership crisis at Libya's central bank then led to a blockade at ports and fields by Libya's eastern-based administration on 26 August which lasted until 3 October . The blockade pushed total crude loadings to a near four-year low of 507,000 b/d in September. before recovering to 843,000 b/d in October, 1.09mn b/d in November and 1.15mn b/d in December. Demand for Libyan crude from European buyers remained strong last year despite the disruptions. Europe accounted for 84pc of Libyan crude exports in 2024, up from an 80pc share in 2023. By Kuganiga Kuganeswaran Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Caracas clamps down before disputed inauguration


25/01/06
25/01/06

Caracas clamps down before disputed inauguration

Caracas, 6 January (Argus) — Exiled Venezuelan politician Edmundo Gonzalez called on his opposition supporters to protest President Nicolas Maduro's plans to take the oath of office on 10 January, despite the US and other countries long backing claims of election fraud. Gonzalez was likely the winner of Venezuela's 28 July presidential election, international observers and others hold, but Maduro claimed victory and forced his opponent into exile in Spain. Gonzalez met with US president Joe Biden at the White House today, as part of several international visits. Protesting is "a task for everyone, for the political leadership but also for all Venezuelans who believe in democracy", Gonzalez said when leaving the White House today. The US has not changed its sanctions on Venezuela, including restrictions on crude exports, in response to the election results. Biden did not indicate that the US sanctions regime would change following his meeting with Gonzalez today, based on the White House readout of the meeting. "Both leaders agreed there is nothing more essential to the success of democracy than respecting the will of the people," the White House said. President-elect Donald Trump has not specified what will change after he takes office on 20 January, but many of the restrictions he put in place during his first term remain. The Venezuelan opposition may be hoping that the incoming US administration's officials, which include long-time Venezuela hardliners such as secretary of state nominee Marco Rubio and designated White House national security adviser Mike Waltz, would advance a tougher policy toward Maduro. But it is equally possible that Trump's plans to deport millions of migrants from the US would lead to dealmaking between the White House and Maduro, who said he would accept Venezuelans returning home from the US. In Caracas, Maduro's administration has heavily increasing police presence on the streets this week ahead of the swearing-in ceremony. Police lined platforms on the Caracas subway and guarded entry points into the city, searching most passengers and cars, causing lengthy delays. Police and paramilitary groups known as colectivos also surrounded the presidential palace of Miraflores. The main thoroughfare Avenida Urdaneta has been closed to motor traffic. Maduro's planning swearing-in has also led to additional diplomatic falling outs, with Venezuela breaking diplomatic ties with Paraguay after its president held a call with Gonzalez on Sunday and recognized him as the legitimate Venezuelan president. Venezuela had already severed ties with about a dozen countries in the area for siding with Gonzalez. Neighboring Brazil and Colombia are among the few Latin American countries with ambassadors in Caracas. Both Brazil and Colombia have promised to send a representative, although not their presidents, to the ceremony, but the EU has said it will not recognize the event. Gonzalez will be arrested if he tries to return to Venezuela, defense minister Vladimir Padrino reiterated today. The Maduro government is offering a $100,000 reward for information leading to Gonzalez' arrest. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadian prime minister Trudeau to resign


25/01/06
25/01/06

Canadian prime minister Trudeau to resign

Calgary, 6 January (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said he will resign as soon as his Liberal Party selects a new leader to run in general elections expected later this year. Calls for Trudeau to resign have been growing for months but became too much to ignore as the Liberals continued to fall further behind the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre in polling. Recent polls indicate the centre-right Conservatives would win a majority of seats in the House of Commons if an election were held today. "If I'm having to fight internal battles, I can't be the best option in that election," Trudeau said in Ottawa this morning. Parliament was set to return from a break on 27 January, at which time Conservatives were expected to attempt to trigger an election by way of a no-confidence vote. Canada's governor general — at Trudeau's request — extended the break until 24 March. That break will buy the Liberals time to find a new leader but it will be a tall order for any successor to both unite the party and also connect with Canadians on short notice before an expected spring election. "There will be confidence votes in March," said Trudeau, whose minority government has been propped up by the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP has helped Trudeau survive no-confidence votes in recent months, but on 20 December vowed that it would also bring the government down when it returned to session. Trudeau was elected as a member of parliament (MP) in 2008, leader of the Liberal Party in 2013, and has been prime minister since 2015 after defeating the then Stephen Harper-led Conservatives. There is no obvious replacement for Trudeau after deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned last month , citing "costly political gimmicks," unrestrained spending and being at odds over the approach to the "grave challenge" of aggressive US nationalism. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened a 25pc tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico unless they tighten borders to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration into the US. Trudeau's plan to resign does not change the Conservative party's plans to call for new elections, Poilievre said today. "Every Liberal MP in power today and every potential leadership contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," he said. If elected, Poilievre plans to cut a number of environmental programs championed by the Liberals, including the carbon tax. The Conservatives support the continued use of oil and gas, exploration for hydrocarbons, and pipeline construction. The next federal election must occur on or before 25 October this year, according to the electoral calendar. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US crude output at record 13.46mn b/d in Oct: EIA


25/01/03
25/01/03

US crude output at record 13.46mn b/d in Oct: EIA

Calgary, 3 January (Argus) — US crude production rose to a record 13.46mn b/d in October on sustained strength in Texas and New Mexico, according to the EIA's latest Petroleum Supply Monthly report. Output rose from 13.2mn b/d in September and 13.15mn b/d in October 2023, and pushed past the previous record of 13.36mn b/d set in August. Texas pumped a record 5.86mn b/d, up from 5.8mn b/d in September and 5.57mn b/d a year earlier, while New Mexico produced 2.08mn b/d, down slightly from record highs in August and September, but up from 1.8mn b/d in October 2023. Gulf of Mexico output rebounded to 1.85mn b/d from a hurricane-affected 1.57mn b/d in September, but was down from 1.94mn b/d a year earlier. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes


25/01/03
25/01/03

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes

Some Republicans worry that their razor-thin House majority could soon see their caucus fractured, writes Chris Knight Washington, 3 January (Argus) — The new Republican majority in US Congress has set its sights on passing legislation to grow energy production, unwind climate policies and cut trillions of dollars in taxes, but doing so will require the party to overcome its history of infighting. That disharmony was on display last month, when Republicans in the House of Representatives nearly forced a government shutdown by scuttling a spending deal negotiated by their own leaders. Similar dynamics have been at play for the past two years, as rifts over how to govern made it difficult for House Republican leaders to use a tiny majority to extract policy concessions during negotiations. The first test of party unity in the 119th Congress — sworn in on 3 January — will come as House Republicans vote on whether to re-elect Mike Johnson as speaker with an even smaller majority than last year. Johnson can only afford to lose a handful of votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him, before Republicans risk a repeat of 2023, when far-right members ousted the last speaker but could not agree on a replacement for weeks. A lengthy voting impasse could delay the 6 January certification of the election victory of president-elect Donald Trump, who this week endorsed Johnson. Trump campaigned on passing legislation to allow industry to "drill, baby, drill" by increasing federal oil and gas lease sales, removing regulations and unwinding parts of outgoing president Joe Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among the options are rescinding a fee on methane emissions that started at $900/t, and requiring more oil and gas lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico. On taxes, Trump has proposed extending $4 trillion in cuts due to expire at the end of 2025, in addition to cutting corporate rates to as low as 15pc from 20pc, rescinding clean energy credits, and putting a 20pc tariff on all imports. Other items on Congress' to-do list include passing legislation to fund the government and raising the statutory limit on federal debt. Republicans also say they want to pass a bill to expedite federal permitting, after a bipartisan effort to do so failed to advance in December. Learning to two-step Republican leaders have floated a two-step plan to pass Trump's legislative agenda that would use "budget reconciliation" — a legislative manoeuvre that will prevent a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, but which limits the bill to provisions that will affect the federal budget. Senate majority leader John Thune, a Republican from Texas, has suggested packaging immigration, border security and energy policy into a first budget bill that would pass early this year. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and far more complex — budget bill that would focus on taxes and spending. But some Republicans, mindful of a slim 220-215 House majority that will temporarily shrink because of upcoming vacancies, worry the two-part strategy could fracture the caucus. Republicans have yet to decide the changes to the IRA, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans last year said they opposed a "full repeal" of the law, which disproportionately benefits districts represented by Republicans. Republicans plan to use their expanded influence to push changes at all levels of government and the work it supports. Incoming Republican chairman of the Senate energy committee John Barrasso has issued a report urging OECD energy watchdog the IEA to revive the inclusion of a "business-as-usual" reference case in its annual World Energy Outlook. Barrasso says the IEA has lost its focus on energy security and instead become a "cheerleader" for the energy transition. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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