Indonesian power sector coal intake to dip in 2020: PLN
Coal consumption by Indonesia's power sector this year is expected to edge lower from a year earlier and also fall short of earlier projections, as the country's Covid-19 lockdown weighs on electricity demand and generation.
Domestic coal consumption by power utilities this year is expected to be 95.6mn t, down from 97mn t in 2019, said Indonesian state-owned power generation and transmission firm PLN. The latest guidance is also down 12.2pc from its initial forecast of 108.87mn t for 2020. The power sector's coal consumption was 68.17mn t during January-August this year, up from 50.16mn t in the first half of the year.
The earlier projection for coal consumption was based on an expected increase in power demand this year. But this has remained almost flat with the Covid-19 lockdown. Electricity consumption during January-July edged 0.51pc higher from the same period last year, PLN said.
But coal consumption has edged up in the past two months with an easing of lockdown restrictions. Average coal demand rose to 9mn t/month in July and August from 8.36mn t/month during January-June.
PLN expects the country's coal consumption to remain relatively steady for the rest of the year.
DMO obligation
Indonesia's overall sluggish coal demand will make it more difficult for coal mining companies to fulfil their domestic market obligation (DMO) for the year, said the country's energy ministry (ESDM).
Domestic coal consumption is expected to reach 125mn t this year, short of the original 155mn t because of the weaker demand from the power sector, the ESDM said. This included coal consumption by utilities, as well as industries including cement mills.
Electricity demand is expected to recover in the coming months, PLN said, although it is unlikely to reach pre-Covid-19 levels.
PLN forecasts that even in 2021 power sector total coal demand will only reach 98.01mn t versus an original prediction of 120.53mn t. It may reach 103.72mn t in 2022 but significantly lower than the projected 128.54mn t.
The country's mining association APBI in August asked the government to relax the country's DMO because of weaker domestic coal demand. The DMO system requires coal producers to make a percentage of their annual output, currently set at 25pc, available to the domestic market. The ministry did not immediately clarify if it planned to relax the DMO requirements this year.
Related news posts
Upper Mississippi locks closed by high water
Upper Mississippi locks closed by high water
Houston, 3 July (Argus) — High water levels on the upper Mississippi River have caused several lock closures and spurred delays for barge carriers. Lock and Dams (L&D) 12, 16 and 17 on the upper Mississippi River closed 2 July and are expected to remain closed through the rest of this week and possibly into the next, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. Locks 11, 13, 18 and 20 are expected to close on 4 July. The Corps will likely close locks 14 and 22 on 5 July, while lock 15 is expected to close 6 July. The Corps said the duration of the July 4-5 closures is unclear. Another 2-5 inches of rain fell along the western Corn Belt in the past week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. High river conditions led to major flood status at Dubuque, Iowa, while other locations along the river are at moderate flooding levels. Water levels are 4-5ft below record highs on the upper Mississippi River. The outdraft at lock and dam 16 was at 211,444 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Tuesday, compared with typical flow of 41,100cfs. Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line anticipates 7-10 days of disruption followed by a 2-3 week catch-up. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US services contract in June, signal broad weakening
US services contract in June, signal broad weakening
Houston, 3 July (Argus) — Economic activity in the US services sector contracted in June by the most since 2020 while a report earlier this week showed contraction in manufacturing, signaling a broad-based slowdown in the economy as the second quarter came to an end. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) registered 48.8 in June, down from 53.8 in May. Readings above 50 signal expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction for the services economy. The June services PMI "indicates the overall economy is contracting for the first time in 17 months," ISM said. "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment." The business activity/production index fell to 49.6 from 61.2. New orders fell by 6.8 points to 47.3. Employment fell by 1 point to 46.1. Monthly PMI reports can be volatile, but a services PMI above 49 over time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. "Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs," ISM said. The prices index fell by 1.8 points to 56.3, showing slowing but robust price gains. ISM's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June from 48.7 in May, ISM reported on 1 July. It was the third consecutive month of contraction and marked a 19th month of contraction in the past 20 months. Wednesday's weaker than expected ISM report, together with a Wednesday report showing initial jobless claims last week rose to their highest in two years, slightly increase the odds that the Federal Reserve may lower its target rate later this year after maintaining it at 23-year highs since last year in an effort to stem inflation. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s TerraCom misses FY2024 coal sales target
Australia’s TerraCom misses FY2024 coal sales target
Sydney, 3 July (Argus) — Australian thermal coal producer TerraCom has failed to hit its full-year sales guidance for the 2024 fiscal year to 30 June, because of lower sales at its Blair Athol mine. The Blair Athol mine in Queensland state's Bowen basin sold 408,000t for April-June to finish the year at 1.57mn t, below its 1.7mn t guidance. This came because of significant unscheduled downtime occurring on the dragline in mid-June, the firm said on 3 July. This ultimately affected railing its output to port, with the third planned June shipment now to be made in early July, TerraCom said. TerraCom last year slashed its expected thermal coal sales for the year to 30 June 2023 to 1.8mn t from 1.9mn t, because of issues with logistics on the Queensland rail network it uses. TerraCom, which sells Blair Athol coal to Japanese and South Korean energy markets and the Indian sponge iron market, has set a sales guidance for the mine of 1.8mn t for the year to 30 June 2025. By Tom Major Australian thermal coal prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia's coal exports edge higher in April
Indonesia's coal exports edge higher in April
Singapore, 1 July (Argus) — Indonesia's coal exports in April edged higher from a year earlier, led by a growth in shipments to India and southeast Asia. The country exported 44.54mn t of coal in April, up by 2.2pc from a year earlier, customs data show. But the exports fell from 46.1mn t in March . The data includes all types of coal such as thermal as well as coking coal. Indonesia exported about 175.58mn t of coal in January-April, up from 168.5mn t during the same period a year earlier. The country could export a total of 526.68mn t this year at the current pace of 43.89mn t/month, up from 521.1mn t a year earlier, according to Argus calculations based on the customs data. The year-on-year increase in April exports was mainly supported by a rise in demand from India, the world's second-largest coal importer, as utilities there looked to bulk up purchases to replenish stocks for the summer season. Shipments to India in April rose by 8.5pc on the year and by 4.8pc on the month to 11.03mn t, according to the data. The exports were supported by strong demand from utilities with an increase in coal-fired generation. India's overall coal-fired generation — which meets most of the country's power requirements — rose to 116.5TWh in April, up from 106TWh a year earlier, according to data from the country's Central Electricity Authority. April's coal-fired generation was also higher than March's 112.5TWh because heatwaves led to increased air-conditioning use. Indonesian exports also rose to cater for increased demand from southeast Asia. Exports to the region in April rose by 36pc on the year and by 21pc from March to 11.03mn t. This was led by a steady rise in exports to Vietnam, where shipments more than doubled to 2.86mn t from 1.35mn t a year earlier and 2.03mn t in March. The demand was led by utilities as coal-fired generation rose to around 16.5TWh in April, up from an estimated 11.89TWh a year earlier, to cater for an increase in power demand during the dry season. Vietnamese coal imports reached 6.5mn t in May , up from 4.97mn t a year earlier, and from 5.9mn t in April, provisional customs data show. Shipments to China — the world's largest coal importer — accounted for nearly 35pc of Indonesian exports at 15.57mn t, down from 18.5mn t a year earlier and 19.26mn t in March. The drop came as Chinese utilities slowed down purchases of seaborne cargoes in line with the softness in thermal power generation. China's thermal power generation, which mainly uses coal, fell to 454TWh in May from 471TWh a year earlier and 459TWh in April, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China's imports of thermal coal — including non-coking bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal, and lignite — totalled 32.7mn t, down from 31.4mn t a year earlier and from 32.9mn t in May, Chinese customs data show. Output rises A rise in Indonesian coal production supported higher exports in January-April. Output during the period rose to 266.1mn t, up by 9.2pc from a year earlier, according to data from the country's energy ministry (ESDM). But the output in May and June is estimated to have slipped, taking the year-to-date tally to about 371mn t, down by 2.5pc from a year earlier. The data will likely be revised, as output is frequently reviewed in Indonesia because of a lag in some producers' reporting. Indonesian output could face pressure from heavy rains in parts of key coal-producing Kalimantan region, while production cutbacks could also affect overall production. Some coal producers could trim output in response to ongoing prices in the international market. Argus assessed Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal at $52.86/t fob Kalimantan on 28 June, down by 6.4pc from $57.50/t on 8 March, the highest level for 2024. It is also sharply down from a 2023 peak of $90.41/t in January last year. Weaker output could dent the export trajectory, but coal exports in May are estimated at 44.12mn t, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler, up from 41.47mn t a year earlier. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Indonesian coal exports (mn t) Indonesia Jan-Apr coal exports by destination (mn t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more