Australian heavy crude premiums ease

: Crude oil, Oil products
20/09/23

Heavy sweet Asia-Pacific crudes remain in demand for use in fuel oil blending, although reduced vessel movements because of the impact of Covid-19 has pulled premiums down from record highs at the start of the year.

Australian heavy sweet Pyrenees for November loading traded last week at a premium of $5.10-5.20/bl to North Sea Dated, its lowest premium in 19 months. Pyrenees' premiums surged to a record high of $30.50/bl to Dated in January for March-loading volumes. Australian heavy sweet Van Gogh is currently valued around a $7.55/bl premium to Dated, after the grade traded at premiums as high at $27.80/bl in January. But no trades have been done recently for the grade as the Van Gogh Ningaloo Vision floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) has been in Singapore since April for maintenance. The FPSO may not return to Australia until early next year, according to some traders, as Covid-19 travel restrictions have made it more difficult to move personnel to Singapore to bring the FPSO back.

The values of these low-sulphur, high-density Australian crudes, as well as South Sudan Dar Blend, firmed in late 2019 and early 2020 because they were blended directly into bunker fuel to meet the International Maritime Organisation's tighter sulphur limits for marine fuels implemented in January 2020.

South Sudan's Dar Blend rose to a record high premium of $6.20/bl to Dated in January but is currently around a $1.25/bl discount to Dated. Dar Blend did not strengthen as much as Pyrenees and Van Gogh. Although the crude is sometimes used for fuel oil blending, it has a much lower flash point — the temperature at which fuel vapour ignites — compared with the Australian grades, limiting its suitability.

Flash point is key to the suitability of crudes for use in fuel oil blending. Australian heavy sweet Vincent firmed to a premium of $8.15/bl to Dated in late July from a $1/bl discount to Dated at the end of April, after producer Woodside boosted the grade's flash point to around 100°C , allowing it to be used for fuel oil blending.

But overall softer demand from fuel oil blenders has recently weighed on premiums of these heavy sweet crudes. Fuel oil stocks in Asia-Pacific have generally been higher this year compared with late last year, partly because of reduced global oil demand as the impact of Covid-19 has curbed shipping movements. Production cuts by Opec+ this year have also reduced to some extent the export movements of crude from producing regions.

Bunker fuel sales in Singapore in August did rise to a five-month high, although it is unclear if this is sustainable, given increased demand concerns from the continued Covid-19 outbreaks worldwide. The rise in overall bunker sales in August was driven by an increase in high-sulphur fuel oil because of the shrinking number of ports providing the grade, but this growth may prove limited as scrubber installations have slowed recently. Sales of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) in Singapore in August also fell by about 2pc from July to 2.84mn t, accounting for 69.6pc of total bunker sales. The higher viscosity LSFO 380cst grade accounted for the bulk of sales at 2.23mn t.

Despite the weakening in the premiums for these heavy sweet crudes, they still fared better compared with some of the light sweet, middle distillates-rich Asia-Pacific crudes. Their spot differentials slumped this year with a collapse in Singapore jet fuel refining margins. Malaysian light sweet Labuan fell to a discount of $4/bl to Dated in April, its deepest discount since at least March 2009, with the grade currently valued around a 20¢/bl premium to Dated for November-loading volumes.

By Rhalain Reyes

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24/12/23

Viewpoint: US east coast diesel oversupply to linger

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — The US Atlantic coast distillate market grappled with higher inventories and flat demand throughout most of 2024, dynamics that are likely to continue in the coming year. In the US Gulf coast, the main supplier of distillates to the Atlantic coast, refinery production has outpaced US domestic distillate demand, saturating the region with product shipped via the Colonial and Plantation pipelines. The US Gulf coast supplies roughly 70pc of all diesel consumed in the US Atlantic coast, with the majority shipped via pipeline. The four-week average for production of ultra-low sulphur distillates — including diesel (ULSD) and heating oil (ULSH) — in the US Gulf coast for the week ended 13 December was 7pc higher than levels from a year earlier. But overall US diesel demand was down by 2.1pc year-over-year and down by 1.9pc on the US Atlantic coast. In addition to soft demand, ultra-low sulphur distillate stocks in PADD 1B — which includes New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware — in the week ended 13 December were nearly 36pc above levels a year earlier and 33pc higher than average levels recorded since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. Even with demand flat and inventories oversupplied, US refineries have not cut production. Heightened export opportunities, primarily to Europe, have created active trade flows between US Gulf coast diesel refiners and overseas end-user markets. Total distillate exports loading from the US Gulf coast year-to-date 2024 are 10pc higher than in the same period in 2023, with a 1.12mn b/d export average in 2024, compared to 1.02mn b/d loading in 2023. But not all of the additional supply is making it out of the Gulf coast. A 4.9pc increase in production in the Gulf coast means an extra 130,000 b/d of supply, while an increase of 10pc in diesel exports means an extra 100,000 b/d in outflows. Fluctuations in vessel availability and refinery production often prevent all distillate output allocated for export from being shipped from the US Gulf coast. As a result, incremental overproduction of distillates is redirected to the US Atlantic coast, with one market participant describing the Colonial pipeline as a "dumping ground" for excess product. Although economic growth in Europe remains flat, changes in the global supply chain following Russia's invasion of Ukraine are expected to sustain arbitrage opportunities for US producers to ship diesel to Europe. Shipping EN-590 gasoil — the European diesel fuel standard with a 10 ppm sulphur limit rather than the 15 ppm ULSD equivalent used in North America — from the US Gulf coast to Europe is easier than from the US Atlantic coast because of the US Gulf coast's larger refining capacity and export infrastructure, despite the US Atlantic coast's closer proximity to Europe. Although EN-590 and ULSD have similar low-sulfur requirements, EN-590 requires specific blending to meet European standards, a process better supported by US Gulf coast refineries. It does not appear that significant relief is on the horizon in the form of increased domestic demand. Diesel demand traditionally closely traces gross domestic product (GDP). But that correlation has been decoupling in recent years as the US economy has increasingly relied on non-manufacturing services to provide economic growth. Year-over-year GDP in the US grew by 2.8pc at the end of the third quarter of 2024, while diesel demand fell by 2.1pc during the same period, according to US Bureau of Economic Analysis data. While some economists are projecting US GDP to grow around 2.5pc in 2025, this is unlikely to lead to a spike in diesel demand. Continued demographic shifts and population migrations away from the US Northeast to the Sun Belt states also do not support increased demand forecasts. With narrowing refining margins, dwindling demand and sustained higher production, market participants could expect to face challenging economic conditions in 2025. By Cooper Sukaly Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

24/12/23

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

New York, 23 December (Argus) — A Republican-controlled Congress will decide the fate next year of a federal incentive for low-carbon fuels, setting the stage for a lobbying battle that could make or break existing investment plans. The 45Z tax credit, which offers greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions, is poised to kick off in January. Biofuel output has boomed during President Joe Biden's term, driven in large part by west coast refiners retrofitting facilities to process lower-carbon fats and oils into renewable diesel. The 45Z tax credit, created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), was designed to extend that growth. But Republicans will soon control Washington. President-elect Donald Trump has dismissed the IRA as the "Green New Scam", and Republicans on Capitol Hill, who had no role in passing Biden's signature climate legislation, are keen to cut climate spending to offset the steep cost of extending tax cuts from Trump's first term. Biofuels support is a less likely target for repeal than other climate policies, energy lobbyists say. But Republicans have already requested input on 45Z, signaling openness to changes. Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, which enables them to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, to extend tax breaks that are scheduled to expire in 2025. "I want to place our industry in a place to make sure that the biofuels tax credit is part of reconciliation," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, president of the National Oilseed Processors Association. But lawmakers "could punt the biofuels discussion if stakeholders aren't aligned." A decade ago, biofuel policy was a simple tug-of-war between the oil and agriculture industries. Now many refiners formerly critical of the Renewable Fuel Standard produce ethanol and advanced biofuels themselves. And the increasingly diverse biofuels industry could complicate efforts to present a united front to Congress. Farm groups worry about carbon intensity scoring hurting crop demand and have lobbied to curtail record-high feedstock imports, to the chagrin of some biorefineries. Those producers are no monolith either: Biodiesel plants often rely more on local vegetable oils, while ethanol producers insist on keeping incentives that do not discriminate by fuel type and some oil majors would back subsidizing fuels co-processed with petroleum. Add airlines into the picture, which want greater incentives for aviation fuels, and marketers frustrated by 45Z shifting subsidies away from blenders — and the threat of fractious negotiations next year becomes clear. There are options for potential compromise, according to an Argus analysis of comments submitted privately to Republicans in the House of Representatives, as well as interviews with energy lobbyists and tax experts. The industry, frustrated by the Biden administration's delays in clarifying 45Z's rules, might welcome legislative changes that limit regulatory discretion regardless of what agency guidance eventually says. And lobbyists have floated various ways to appease agriculture groups without kneecapping biorefineries reliant on imports, including adding domestic content bonuses, imposing stricter requirements for Chinese-origin used cooking oil, and giving preference to close trading partners. Granted, unanimity among lobbyists is hardly a priority for Republican tax-writers. Reaching any consensus in the restive caucus, with just a handful of votes to spare in the House, will be difficult enough. "These types of bills always come to down to what's the most you can do before you start losing enough votes to pass it," said Jeff Navin, cofounder of the clean energy advocacy firm Boundary Stone Partners and a former House and Senate staffer. "Because they can only lose a couple of votes, there's not much more beyond that." And the caucus's goal of cutting spending makes an industry-wide goal — extending the 45Z credit into the 2030s — even more challenging. "It is a hard sell to get the extension right away," said Paul Winters, director of public affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Climate costs Cost concerns also make less likely a simple return to the long-running blenders credit, which offered $1/USG across the board to biomass-based diesel. The US Joint Committee on Taxation in 2022 scored the two-year blenders extension at $5.5bn, while pegging three years of 45Z at less than $3bn. An inconvenient reality for Republicans skeptical of climate change is that 45Z's throttling of subsidies based on carbon intensity makes it more budget-friendly. Lawmakers have other reasons to not ignore emissions. Policies elsewhere, including California's low-carbon fuel standard and Europe's alternative jet fuel mandates, increasingly prioritize sustainability. The US deviating from that focus federally could leave producers with contradictory incentives, making it harder to turn a profit. And companies that have already sunk funds into reducing emissions — such as ethanol producers with heavy investments in carbon capture — want their reward. Incentives with bipartisan buy-in are likely more durable over the long run too. Next time Democrats control Washington, liberals may be more willing to scrap a credit they see as padding the profits of agribusiness — but less so if they see it as helping the US decarbonize. By Cole Martin Tax credit changes 40A Blenders Tax Credit 45Z Producers Tax Credit $1/USG Up to $1/USG for road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for aviation fuels depending on carbon intensity For domestic fuel blenders For domestic fuel producers Imported fuel eligible Imported fuel not eligible Exclusively for biomass-based diesel Fuels that produce no more than 50kg CO2e/mmBTU are eligible Feedstock-agnostic Carbon intensity scoring incentivizes waste over crop feedstocks Co-processed fuels ineligible Co-processed fuels ineligible Administratively simple Requires federal guidance on how to calculate carbon intensities for different feedstocks and fuel pathways Expiring after 2024 Lasts from 2025 through 2027 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German heating oil demand dips, diesel stocks reduced

24/12/23

German heating oil demand dips, diesel stocks reduced

Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Heating oil consumers in Germany are refraining from purchasing because of high inventories, while importers are lowering their diesel stocks to maintain low bio-blended reserves. Reported volumes of heating oil traded to Argus fell by nearly 35pc last week. Consumers see little need to increase their stocks that, although they have steadily declined, remain higher than the same period in 2023 at 59.6pc, Argus MDX data show. Heating oil traded at about €1.50/100l higher than the previous week, further deterring consumers from last-minute purchases ahead of the Christmas holiday. Importers are striving to keep their diesel stocks minimal until the year's end. Obligated parties will be unable to use any surplus greenhouse gas (GHG) certificates from previous years in 2025 and 2026, so importers that have already met their obligations this year are eager to avoid generating more certificates until January. As a result, demand is low for diesel imports into Germany's northern ports and to storage facilities along the Rhine river. Northern Germany experienced a significant drop in imports in December to the lowest since September, Vortexa data show. But importers and barge operators are preparing for increased import activity in early 2025 to replenish their biodiesel inventories as quickly as possible. Suppliers at the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery in Bavaria are experiencing low stocks, primarily as a result of heightened demand in early December when buyers were active before an increased CO2 levy and the GHG quota take effect on 1 January. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures

24/12/23

Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures

London, 23 December (Argus) — Another tranche of European refining capacity will close for good next year, but the reprieve for margins in the region may only be temporary. Nearly 400,000 b/d of capacity, around 3pc of Europe's total, is scheduled for permanent closure in 2025, comprising Petroineos' 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in Germany and a third of the capacity at BP's nearby 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery . Around 30 refineries have closed in Europe since 2000. Among the most recent was Italian firm Eni's 84,000 b/d Livorno refinery in northern Italy earlier this year. And only this month, trading firm Gunvor announced it is mothballing its small upgrading refinery in Rotterdam . The Rotterdam facility had already stopped processing crude in 2020, leaving it peculiarly exposed to the margins between intermediate feedstocks and finished fuels. The refinery has been hit by a 25pc increase in operating costs in the last four years and a squeeze on margins, the latter the result of competition from new refineries outside the region, Gunvor said. Outside Europe, the world has added more than 2.5mn b/d of crude distillation capacity in the last three years. Three brand new refineries have come on stream in the Middle East in that time — Saudi Arabia's 400,000 b/d Jizan, Kuwait's 615,000 b/d Al-Zour with Oman's 230,000 b/d Duqm refineries. More recently, Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, Mexico's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and Yulong Petrochemical's 400,000 b/d refinery in China's Shandong province started up, all of which are likely to ramp up throughput in 2025. Refinery closures tend to support margins for those that remain. But European refiners' costs continue to rise while demand for their products falls, which means next year's closures are unlikely to be the last. Simpler and smaller refineries are prime candidates for closure as they usually achieve weaker margins. Europe also has plenty of refineries built before 1950 that are still running. These older plants can be more at risk of accidents and breakdowns. And repairs can sometimes cost so much that they tip a refinery into the red. An ongoing concern for European refiners is the trend towards lighter and sweeter crude slates , driven by supply-side dynamics, which is resulting in higher naphtha yields at a time when demand for naphtha from Europe's petrochemical sector is under pressure from a contraction in cracking capacity. But many in the market expect the greatest pressure in 2025 will fall on those coastal refineries in Europe that were built to maximise gasoline output. If, as expected, Dangote continues to shrink Nigeria's demand for gasoline imports , these refineries will be hit hardest. Any refinery that cannot desulphurise all of its gasoline output to the 10ppm required for UK or EU usage will be under intense pressure, as west Africa is presently among the only outlets for European high-sulphur gasoline. Strike support One of the strongest supports for European refining margins in 2025 could come in the form of industrial action if new capacity cuts or closures were to be announced. Refinery workers in the region have shown willing and able in the past to organise large-scale strikes, most emphatically in France. The highest diesel refining margins Argus has ever recorded came in October 2022, when the entire French refining system was shut down by strikes. Another trend to watch out for next year is the continuing shift in the ownership structure of Europe's refining sector. The large integrated oil companies that have dominated the industry for so long have been steadily selling European refining assets to independents and trading firms. The latter are nimbler and able to cut costs more ruthlessly. And with many of them not publicly listed, they are less susceptible to pressure regarding their environmental footprints. There could be more instalments in this story in 2025. Sweden's Preem started accepting bids for its Swedish refining assets in the summer of 2024 and Russia's Lukoil is considering bids for its Burgas refinery in Bulgaria. By Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House votes to avert government shutdown

24/12/20

US House votes to avert government shutdown

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly today to extend funding for US federal government agencies and avoid a partial government shutdown. The Republican-controlled House, by a 366-34 vote, approved a measure that would maintain funding for the government at current levels until 14 March, deliver $10bn in agricultural aid and provide $100bn in disaster relief. Its passage was in doubt until voting began in the House at 5pm ET, following a chaotic intervention two days earlier by president-elect Donald Trump and his allies, including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk. The Democratic-led Senate is expected to approve the measure, and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it. Trump and Musk on 18 December derailed a spending deal House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump lobbied for a more streamlined version that would have suspended the ceiling on federal debt until 30 January 2027. But that version of the bill failed in the House on Thursday, because of opposition from 38 Republicans who bucked the preference of their party leader. Trump and Musk opposed the bipartisan spending package, contending that it would fund Democratic priorities, such as rebuilding the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. But doing away with that bill killed many other initiatives that his party members have advanced, including a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. Depending on the timing of the Senate action and the presidential signature, funding for US government agencies could lapse briefly beginning on Saturday. Key US agencies tasked with energy sector regulatory oversight and permitting activities have indicated that a brief shutdown would not significantly interfere with their operations. But the episode previews potential legislative disarray when Republicans take full control of Congress on 3 January and Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Extending government funding beyond 14 March is likely to feature as an element in the Republicans' attempts to extend corporate tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025, which is a key priority for Trump. The Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate next month, but their hold on the House will be even narrower than this year, at 219-215 initially. Trump has picked two House Republican members to serve in his administration, so the House Republican majority could briefly drop to 217-215 just as funding for the government would expire in mid-March. Congress will separately have to tackle the issue of raising the debt limit. Conservative advocacy group Economic Policy Innovation Center projects that US borrowing could reach that limit as early as June. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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