Malaysia to cut reliance on petroleum revenues
Malaysia is seeking to reduce its reliance on oil and gas revenues, forecasting a near 25pc fall in total petroleum revenues to 37.8bn ringgit ($9.2bn) next year as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to batter global crude prices.
The drop, from petroleum revenues of 50bn ringgit this year, is largely driven by an estimated fall in dividends from state-owned oil firm Petronas to 18bn ringgit next year, down by almost 50pc from 34bn ringgit in 2020 and just a third of the 54bn ringgit paid in 2019, according to a fiscal outlook report that accompanied the government's 2021 budget announcement on 6 November.
Revenue diversification is one of several major structural issues facing the Malaysian government, said the director of the economic studies programme at the Malaysia-based Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia Yeah Kim Leng.
"Reducing its dependence on petroleum revenue and Petronas' dividends is therefore not only prudent but also necessary given the decline in the world oil price and long-term trend towards reducing the use of fossil fuels to tackle climate change," he said.
Yet Petronas committed to paying a "very generous dividend" in 2020 given it is a tough year for the oil industry, said the assistant professor of business and society at Malaysia's Asia School of Business Renato Lima de Oliveira, indicating the government is not yet on a path towards reducing its reliance on petroleum revenues. "States like Sarawak and Sabah are fighting to increase their oil revenues with new state sales taxes. So institutionally, we are not seeing measures that are designed to diversify away from petroleum-related revenues."
More agricultural support
The government's 2021 budget of 322.5bn ringgit provides support for the country's agriculture sector in particular, while seeking to give a much-needed boost to an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic.
The budget has allocated 20mn ringgit for sustainable palm oil certification programmes and a 16mn ringgit incentive for the production of latex, used to make items such as gloves.
Malaysia is the world's second-biggest palm oil producer behind Indonesia and largest supplier of gloves.
The government has also raised its Covid-19 fund ceiling by 20bn ringgit to 65bn ringgit in the 2021 budget, setting aside 1bn ringgit to fight a third wave of infections next year.
The country's economy is projected to contract by 4.5pc this year on the impact of the pandemic but rebound between 6.5-7.5pc next year, driven by stimulus packages, budget 2021 initiatives and expected global economic growth of 5.2pc, finance minister Zafrul Abdul Aziz said in his budget announcement.
This is the first budget tabled by prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin's administration, which has only a slim parliamentary majority. Muhyiddin's Perikatan Nasional coalition came close to falling apart during September-October on the possibility that United Malays National Organisation (Umno) MPs had switched support to opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. Umno is one of the biggest component parties in Perikatan Nasional.
"Muhyiddin's position remains vulnerable even though budget 2021 is the biggest in the nation's history in terms of projected expenditure because it remains to be seen whether it can really revitalise the economy next year," said an associate professor at Malaysia's Putra Business School Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff.
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Technical issues shut Japanese crackers, delay restarts
Technical issues shut Japanese crackers, delay restarts
Singapore, 26 July (Argus) — A series of technical issues forced Japanese cracker operators to shut their units or delay restarts in July, resulting in lower olefins output and higher spot demand. Idemitsu Kosan shut its naphtha cracker in Tokuyama, Yamaguchi prefecture on 15 July, because of gas leakage at its complex. The cracker can produce up to 623,000 t/yr ethylene and 370,000 t/yr propylene. Associated downstream units at the Tokuyama site are likely still operating, resulting in spot demand for prompt ethylene cargoes in the Japanese market, according to market participants. The restart date of the cracker remains unclear, with some market sources saying that the cracker could be on line again in first-half of August. But others said the cracker will be off line until end of August to coincide with Idemitsu Kosan's planned maintenance schedule. Idemitsu Kosan originally planned to shut the Tokuyama-based cracker in September for a 50-day turnaround. The firm declined to comment on the turnaround schedule, citing that the cracker remains shut and it is unsure when it can resume operations. Mitsui's cracker in Sakai, Osaka prefecture also encountered technical issues during its cracker restart. The producer has completed the turnaround, which took place in early July, but will need to procure equipment to address technical issues for the cracker start-up, market participants said. Mitsui's cracker has a nameplate capacity of 600,000 t/yr of ethylene and 280,000 t/yr of propylene. Fellow producer Maruzen Petrochemical also delayed the restart of its cracker in the Chiba prefecture. The cracker was shut on 15 May and was supposed to restart by mid-July. The shutdown has been extended to the end ofJuly, according to market participants. The reason behind the extensions were unclear. Maruzen's Chiba cracker has a production capacity of 525,000 t/yr of ethylene and 335,000 t/yr of propylene. Tighter supplies Shutdown extensions and sudden outages at crackers have tightened olefins supplies in northeast Asia, with Chinese market participants reporting limited offers this week. Asian ethylene prices in the cfr northeast Asia market rose slightly this week to $860-880/t, up by $8/t from the last session, according to Argus ' latest assessments on 24 July. Japan experienced a heavy cracker turnaround season this year, with four crackers conducting scheduled maintenance in the first-half of 2024. Eneos' cracker in Kawasaki prefecture was shut from 5 March until mid-May. Tosoh's Yokkaichi cracker in Mie prefecture was also shut for maintenance from 4 March to the end of April. Keiyo Ethylene's cracker in Chiba prefecture went off line on 10 April for a 14-day planned maintenance. Mitsubishi Chemical's cracker in Kashima, Ibaraki prefecture was shut from May to June. Total ethylene exports from Japan this year are expected to fall from the previous year because of heavy cracker turnarounds. Japan's ethylene exports were at 239,642t during January-May, down by 5,733t from the same period in 2023, according to GTT data. Imports were at 20,296t from January to May, up by 13,500t or almost tripling on the year. By Nanami Oki, Brian Leonal and Toong Shien Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Yemen warring factions reach UN-mediated financial deal
Yemen warring factions reach UN-mediated financial deal
Dubai, 25 July (Argus) — The UAE today welcomed a UN-mediated agreement between Yemen's warring factions that could allay economic woes in the impoverished country. The UAE's ministry of foreign affairs hailed the 23 July announcement of an agreement between the internationally recognised Yemen presidential leadership council (PLC) and the Houthi militant group "with respect to airlines and the banking sector." The UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia, support the PLC. The agreement stipulates "cancelling all the recent decisions and procedures against banks by both sides and refraining in the future from any similar decisions or procedures," and calls for the resumption of Yemenia Airways' flights between Sana'a and Jordan at three a day and operating flights to Cairo and India "daily or as needed." The deal was reached two days after Israeli jets bombed the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeidah. The internationally-recognised central bank in Aden in April ordered financial institutions to move their main operations from Houthi-held territory within 60 days or face sanctions. That deadline ran out in June, leading to a ban on dealing with six banks whose headquarters remained in Houthi-held Sana'a. The Houthis retaliated by taking similar measures against banks in PLC-held areas and seized four Yemenia Airways planes at Sana'a airport. The PLC said it hoped the Houthis would also meet a commitment to resume crude exports. Yemen's crude production collapsed soon after the start of the country's civil war, from around 170,000 b/d in 2011-13 to 50,000-60,000 b/d in 2022, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Data from analytics firm Kpler suggests Yemen has not exported any crude since October 2022. Threats yield results The Iran-backed Houthis earlier in July threatened to attack vital infrastructure such as airports and ports in Saudi Arabia, holding Riyadh responsible for decisions taken by Aden's central bank. The Houthis struck central Tel Aviv on 19 July, inviting an Israeli retaliation that took out a power station that supplies the Red Sea coastal city of Hodeidah and its port and fuel tanks, which are controlled by the Houthis. A breakthrough in the UN-mediated talks between the PLC and the Houthis resulted in the agreement on 22 July, a possible sign that Riyadh might have compromised to avoid a Houthi escalation. The Houthis have been attacking commercial ships in and around the Red Sea since November last year, six weeks after the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war, in what they say is an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q
Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q
London, 25 July (Argus) — TotalEnergies said today that a worsening performance at its downstream Refining & Chemicals business and its Integrated LNG segment led to a 7pc year-on-year decline in profit in the second quarter. Profit of $3.79bn was down from $5.72bn for the January-March quarter and from $4.09bn in the second quarter of 2023. When adjusted for inventory effects and special items, profit was $4.67bn — slightly lower than analysts had been expecting and 6pc down on the immediately preceding quarter. The biggest hit to profits was at the Refining & Chemicals segment, which reported an adjusted operating profit of $639mn for the April-June period, a 36pc fall on the year. Earlier in July, TotalEnergies had flagged lower refining margins in Europe and the Middle East, with its European Refining Margin Marker down by 37pc to $44.9/t compared with the first quarter. This margin decline was partially compensated for by an increase in its refineries' utilisation rate: to 84pc in April-June from 79pc in the first quarter. The company's Integrated LNG business saw a 13pc year on year decline in its adjusted operating profit, to $1.15bn. TotalEnergies cited lower LNG prices and sales, and said its gas trading operation "did not fully benefit in markets characterised by lower volatility than during the first half of 2023." A bright spot was the Exploration & Production business, where adjusted operating profit rose by 14pc on the year to $2.67bn. This was mainly driven by higher oil prices, which were partially offset by lower gas realisations and production. The company's second-quarter production averaged 2.44mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), down by 1pc from 2.46mn boe/d reported for the January-March period and from the 2.47mn boe/d average in the second quarter of 2023. TotalEnergies attributed the quarter-on-quarter decline to a greater level of planned maintenance, particularly in the North Sea. But it said its underlying production — excluding the Canadian oil sands assets it sold last year — was up by 3pc on the year. This was largely thanks to the start up and ramp up of projects including Mero 2 offshore Brazil, Block 10 in Oman, Tommeliten Alpha and Eldfisk North in Norway, Akpo West in Nigeria and Absheron in Azerbaijan. TotalEnergies said production also benefited from its entry into the producing fields Ratawi, in Iraq, and Dorado in the US. The company expects production in a 2.4mn-2.45mn boe/d range in the third quarter, when its Anchor project in the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to start up. The company increased profit at its Integrated Power segment, which contains its renewables and gas-fired power operations. Adjusted operating profit rose by 12pc year-on-year to $502mn and net power production rose by 10pc to 9.1TWh. TotalEnergies' cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.78bn in April-June — an 8pc fall from a year earlier. The company has maintained its second interim dividend for 2024 at €0.79/share and plans to buy back up to $2bn of its shares in the third quarter, in line with its repurchases in previous quarters. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Feedstock imports shake up US biofuel production
Feedstock imports shake up US biofuel production
New York, 24 July (Argus) — Waste from around the world is increasingly being diverted to the US for biofuel production, helping decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors like trucking and aviation. But as refiners turn away from conventional crop-based feedstocks, farm groups fear missing out on the biofuels boom. Driven by low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) in states like California, US renewable diesel production capacity has more than doubled over the last two years to hit a record high of 4.1bn USG/yr in April according to the Energy Information Administration. Soybean and canola processors have invested in expanding crush capacity, expecting future biofuels growth to lift vegetable oil demand. But policymakers' growing focus on carbon intensity, a departure from the long-running federal renewable fuel standard (RFS) that sets volume mandates for broad types of fuel, primarily benefits waste feedstocks, which generate larger LCFS credits because they are assessed as producing fewer emissions. Argonne National Laboratory's GREET emissions model, which has been modified by federal and California regulators for clean fuels programs, factors in emissions sources like fertilizers and diesel use on farms for virgin vegetable oils but not for used oils sourced from cooking operations. Refiners trying to maximize government subsidies are thus sourcing waste-based feedstocks from wherever they can find them. Through May this year, imports to the US under the tariff code that includes used cooking oil (UCO) and yellow grease rose 90pc from year-prior levels to more than 1.8bn lb (844,000t). While China represents most of that, sources are diverse, with significant sums coming from Canada, the UK, and Indonesia. Imports of inedible and technical tallow, waste beef fat that can be turned into biofuels, have also risen 50pc so far this year to 800,000lb on ample supply from Brazil. While soybean oil was responsible for nearly half of biomass-based diesel production in 2021, that share has declined to around a third over the first four months this year as imports surge (see graph). "Every pound of imported feedstock that comes in displaces one pound of domestically sourced soybean oil or five pounds of soybeans," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, chief executive of the National Oilseed Processors Association. Even as LCFS and RFS credit prices have fallen over the last year, hurting biofuel production margins and threatening capacity additions , imports have not slowed. Feedstock suppliers, many from countries with less mature biofuel incentives and limited biorefining capacity, might have few options domestically. And exporting to the US means they can avoid the EU's more prescriptive feedstock limits and mounting scrutiny of biofuel imports. More ambitious targets in future years, particularly for sustainable aviation fuel, "will create a lot of competition for UCO in the global market," said Jane O'Malley, a researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation. But for now, "the US has created the most lucrative market for waste-based biofuel pathways." Incentives for US refiners to use waste-based feedstocks will only become stronger next year when expiring tax credits are replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit, structured as a sliding scale so that fuels generate more of a subsidy as they produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. While essentially all fuel will receive less of a benefit than in past years since the maximum credit is reserved for carbon-neutral fuels, the drop in benefits will be most pronounced for fuels from vegetable oils. Granted, President Joe Biden's administration wants the 45Z credit to account for the benefits of "climate-smart" agriculture, potentially helping close some of the assessed emissions gap between crop and waste feedstocks. But the administration's timeline for issuing guidance is unclear, leaving the market with little clarity about which practices farmers should start deploying and documenting. "While a tax credit can be retroactive, you can't retroactively farm," said Alexa Combelic, director of government affairs at the American Soybean Association. Squeaky wheel gets the soybean oil The concerns of agricultural groups have not gone unnoticed in Washington, DC, where lawmakers from both parties have recently called for higher biofuel blending obligations, prompt 45Z guidance, and more transparency around how federal agencies scrutinize UCO imports. There are also lobbying opportunities in California, where regulators are weighing LCFS updates ahead of a planned hearing in November. At minimum, agricultural groups are likely to continue pushing for more visibility into the UCO supply chain, which could take the form of upping already-burdensome recordkeeping requirements for clean fuels incentives and setting a larger role for auditors. Fraud would be hard to prove, but two external groups told Argus that the Biden administration has indicated that it is looking into UCO collection rates in some countries, which could at least point to potential discrepancies with expected supply. More muscular interventions, including trade disincentives, are also possible. Multiple farm associations, including corn interests frustrated that the country's first alcohol-to-jet facility is using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol , have asked the Biden administration to prevent fuels derived from foreign feedstocks from qualifying for 45Z. The possible return of former president Donald Trump to the White House next year would likely mean sharply higher tariffs on China too, potentially stemming the flow of feedstocks from that country — if not from the many others shipping waste-based feedstocks to the US. Protectionism has obvious risks, since leaving refiners with fewer feedstock options could jeopardize planned biofuel capacity additions that ultimately benefit farmers. But at least some US agriculture companies, insistent that they can sustainably increase feedstock production if incentives allow, see major changes to current policy as necessary. By Cole Martin Waste imports crowd out soybean oil Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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