The Australian government projects the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to fall to 478mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2030 or around 22pc below the 2005 reference level of 615mn t. This will be short of its 26-28pc reduction pledge under the Paris climate agreement struck in 2015.
To achieve a 26-28pc reduction, Australia would have to reduce CO2e to 442.8mn-455.1mn t by 2030. But Canberra claims that its projections will meet its 2030 targets through an emissions budget approach where emissions reductions are averaged over 2021-30 and then achieve absolute reduction by 2030. The latest projections also revised up the 2005 baseline from 611mn t of CO2e and means that any cut made since than is deeper than previously calculated.
The revised projections are also lower than last year when Canberra projected GHG emissions to fall to 511mn t of CO2e. The impact of Covid-19 on the Australian economy and energy consumption lowered Australia's emissions to a 22-year low in the 12 months to 30 June of 513.4mn t of CO2e, just above the 2030 target projected last year.
Australia's emissions projections 2020 report also argued that Australia will achieve its 2030 targets by using its contentious ‘Kyoto-credits', which is picked up through its stance in the Kyoto protocol negotiations in the 1990s. Australia, under the Kyoto Protocol in 2008-12, was allowed to increase its GHG emission by 8pc above its 1990 levels. Because it increased emissions by 5pc, it has used the gap as carbon credits of 128mn t of CO2e to meet its 2020 and 2030 targets.
Australia's reduction in GHG emissions is almost entirely reliant on further deployment of renewable energy for power generation, particularly roof-top solar photovoltaic on Australian households and businesses, the report said. Canberra projects rooftop solar PV deployment to rise from around 15,000MW at present to 24,000 MW by 2030 and this will contribute to renewables accounting for 55pc of power generation in 2030, from a projection of 51pc last year and up from around 30pc at present. This will reduce the share of coal-fired power generation to 35pc by 2030 from 55pc at present.
Emissions from the production of coal and gas, for LNG exports, are projected to rise over the next decade as the Australian conservative government sees higher output for both fuels, the report said.
"Emissions from LNG and coal production are projected to increase to 2030 as Australia's energy exports are projected to increase, based on International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts," the report said. The announcements from China, Japan and South Korea for net-zero emissions by 2050 and 2060, have not yet resulted in additional short term policies and are not projected to have any additional impact on the export outlook before 2030 beyond that already anticipated by the IEA, it said.
In the transport sector, the projected uptake of electric vehicles has been revised up from 19pc of new vehicles sales in 2030 in the 2019 projections, to 26pc in 2030 in the 2020 projections, the report said. This take-up of electric vehicles will do little to impact the projected rise in transport emissions to 2030, the report said.
| Australia's national greenhouse gas inventory and projections | mn t of CO2e | ||
| Sector | 2005 | 2020 | 2030 |
| Electricity | 197 | 172 | 111 |
| Stationary energy, excluding electricity | 82 | 103 | 103 |
| Transport | 82 | 94 | 100 |
| Fugitive emissions | 37 | 50 | 54 |
| Indutrial processes | 32 | 34 | 30 |
| Agriculture | 80 | 67 | 75 |
| Waste | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Land use, land use change and forestry | 91 | -18 | -5 |
| Total | 615 | 513 | 478 |
| Source: Australian government's department of industry, science, energy and resources | |||
