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German gas burn running at record high

  • : Electricity
  • 20/12/15

Strong demand for fossil fuel burn from the power sector this month, given below-average wind levels and colder weather, lifted generation from gas-fired plants to the highest monthly level on record.

Gas-fired generation has been at an average of 11.06GW this month and is on track to reach the highest for any month. Gas-fired plants peaked on 9 December at 13.15GW, reaching 14.58GW at 17:30-17:45 local time.

Unit D at Emsland has generated 183GWh, followed by Irsching 5 at 163GWh and Dusseldorf Lausward F at 125GWh.

Day-ahead clean spark spreads for a unit with a 41pc efficiency — the lowest in the gas-fired fleet — have averaged €2.14/MWh this month and are on track to be the highest since September. These units have been profitable to run in hours 7-20 with spreads as high as €21.39/MWh for hour 17.

German coal-fired generation has increased to 9.28GW from 7.09GW in November and is on track to be the highest for any month since January 2019. Coal-fired output was 13.93GW on 9 December — the highest since 24 January, reaching 16.27GW at 15:00-15:15 local time.

The Karlsruhe refinery's RDK 8 unit has generated 167GWh, followed by Lunen 1 at 150GWh and Ibbenburen B at 142GWh.

Day-ahead clean dark spreads for a unit with an efficiency of 36pc have averaged €4.03/MWh this month, their highest since November 2018. Dark spreads suggest these plants have been profitable to run in hours 7-20, reaching €22.52/MWh for hour 17.

Lignite-fired generation has been its highest since July 2018 at 15.03GW, rising to 16.24GW on 8 December. Neurath G and F have generated 217GWh and 210GWh, respectively, followed by Boxberg Q, at 185TWh.

More gas displaces coal

A faster increase in European coal than NCG gas prices, paired with gains in European carbon allowances, helped to push more gas-fired plants ahead of high efficiency coal-fired units.

Average day-ahead break-even costs show that a unit with an efficiency of 55pc has held a narrow advantage to 46pc-efficient coal-fired units this month. These gas-fired units were at a wider disadvantage in November.

A 46pc gas-fired unit moved ahead of a 38pc coal-fired plant this month, after holding a narrow disadvantage in November. These gas-fired units have advanced in the merit order to a marginal disadvantage to 40pc coal-fired plants. Overall 61pc-efficient gas-fired plants have remained ahead in the merit order followed by 43pc lignite, 59pc and 55pc gas, and 42pc coal.

Fundamentals

Firm fossil fuel-fired output has been favoured by lower renewable power generation and colder weather.

Wind power generation has averaged 11.49GW this month, below 15.55GW in November and the three-year average of 19.85GW. Solar power output has averaged 709MW, down from 2.11GW in November. The share of renewable generation has been 29.5pc this month and is on track to be the lowest for any month since January 2017.

Low wind levels have also weighed on German net exports, which declined to 8.38GW, from 9.30GW in November.

German power demand has averaged 59.8GW so far this month, its highest since February this year and above the five-year average for the month.

Outlook

Industrial power demand tends to decline towards the end of the month amid Christmas holidays.

Germany will also enter a tougher lockdown from 16 December until 10 January.

Wind power is forecast to rise slightly over the next six days at 15.95GW, but temperatures are forecast to fall from end of next week, with minimum values in Essen expected to be up to 3.15°C below the norm from 26 December until at least 17 January.

And German power plant availability is expected to decline by 4.3GW, as a result of the first coal phase-out tender and the shutdown of one lignite-fired unit. Two of those coal-fired plants are high efficiency units — Westfalen and Moorburg — and another two with 38pc efficiency — Ibbenburen and Walsum 9.

The January base-load contract is trading at a level where 49pc-efficient gas-fired units and 40pc-efficient coal-fired plants would just be profitable to run.

German day-ahead price and break-even costs €/MWh

German generation mix GW

January prices and break-even costs €/MWh

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24/11/15

Brazil looks beyond forests to reduce CO2

Brazil looks beyond forests to reduce CO2

Sao Paulo, 15 November (Argus) — Brazil will target energy and transportation emissions as part of its nationally determined contribution (NDC) it outlined ahead of schedule, as the country prepares to host the Cop 30 conference in Belem, Para state next year. The government's goal with the new NDC is to "lead by example" by committing to the more aggressive emissions-reduction targets. The new NDC, which was released ahead of the UN Cop 29 climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, aims to go beyond deforestation — which causes roughly half of the country's emissions — to include other sectors of the economy, including industry, transport, energy and agriculture. Under the new proposal, Brazil will aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 59-67pc from 2005 levels by 2035, equivalent to emissions levels of 850mn-1.05bn metric tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). The government promised to finalize the targets for each sector of the economy during the first half of next year. On the energy and transport fronts, Brazil is seeking to further expand the use of renewables, which currently stand at 89pc of electricity and 49pc of total energy consumption. To reduce emissions from this sector, the government plans to gradually reduce the use of fossil fuels and to replace them with electric motors and biofuels. Additionally, the government cited policies that have been approved this year, including the low-carbon hydrogen law and the fuels of the future law, which will reduce emissions from the industrial and transport sectors. The government also underscored the expanded use of advanced biofuels and the production of conventional biofuels in conjunction with carbon capture to reduce energy emissions. The plan singled out the waste-management sector for its potential to contribute to methane emissions reductions while generating renewable energy from CH4 capture. It cited the expansion of biomethane use, to reduce the use of LPG and natural gas in cooking. For the agriculture sector, the government is targeting large-scale conversion of degraded pastures into crop land, as well as the expanded use of new farming techniques, such as crop-livestock and crop-livestock-forest integration. Additionally, the government promised to expand its efforts to combat deforestation beyond the Amazon basin into new biomes, including the Atlantic rainforest, Pantanal, pampa and cerrado tropical savanna biomes. The government has also launched a plan to reforest roughly 12mn hectares of forests by 2030, which would contribute to the country's net GHG removals. Some Brazilian NGOs commended the government for issuing the new NDC ahead of schedule, and for citing concrete measures that will be adopted to reduce GHG emissions. But they warned that the new NDC is not in line with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Climate NGO Greenpeace classified the new target as "unambitious" and "clearly insufficient," while Brazilian climate think tank Observatorio do Clima criticized the government's failure to increase its targets for 2030. Observatorio do Clima, along with roughly 100 other NGOs, issued a report earlier this year calling on Brazil to adopt a much more aggressive target to slash CO2 emissions by 92pc from 2005 levels by 2035, equivalent to 200mn tCO2e/y. While the NDC did cite policies aimed at reducing dependence on fossil fuels, Observatorio do Clima criticized the government's failure to announce a plan to end the expansion of fossil-fuel use. This sentiment was echoed by Oil Change International, which said that Brazil's goal of being on the "forefront of the global energy transition" is incompatible with its plans to increase oil production over the next decade. Observatorio do Clima also criticized the lack of clarity regarding its plans to double renewable energy capacity and triple energy efficiency. It also questioned the government's deforestation goals, arguing that all deforestation, not just illegal deforestation, needed to be eliminated. 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Parties back battery storage, grids and H2 pledges


24/11/15
24/11/15

Cop: Parties back battery storage, grids and H2 pledges

Baku, 15 November (Argus) — Parties including the US, the UK, Germany, Brazil, the UAE and Saudi Arabia on Friday endorsed pledges on energy storage and grids, and low-carbon hydrogen put forward earlier this year by the UN Cop 29 summit presidency. The pledges aim to increase battery storage capacity six-fold by 2030, from 2022 levels, and enhance energy grids, as well as unlock the potential for a global market for low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives. It is unclear how many countries have endorsed the pledges so far. Some government representatives, international energy agencies and private sector firms showed their support today to the Cop pledge aiming to enhance grid capacity through a global deployment goal of adding or refurbishing 25mn km of grids by 2030. The commitment also recognises the need "to add or refurbish an additional 65mn km by 2040 to align with net-zero emissions by 2050". "Achieving the grid's target would require the build-up rate to increase by double," energy think-tank Ember said today, adding that the 1,500GW storage goal can be exceeded "significantly". The battery storage goal is in line with what the IEA said is needed to meet the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, while maintaining energy security. The commitment was taken last year during Cop 28 in Dubai. The IEA expects that most projects will be located in China and developed economies. Delegates called for national targets for energy storage and power grids as well as for more energy connectivity and trade to be able to decarbonise countries faster and to support regional energy cooperation. "Cross-border energy in Asia Pacific remains mainly in bilateral contracts," said a representative from the region. Parties highlighted the urgency to accelerate energy investment, with the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) calling for a new finance goal for developing countries — currently under negotiations — that reflects the need of financing these nations need to accelerate their clean energy expansion. Clean energy investments in emerging and developing countries outside China have risen to $320bn in 2024, according to the IEA. But a representative from Egypt pointing out that over $1 trillion per year is needed for these countries' transition. Saudi Arabia supported both of the pledges, while reiterating that natural gas storage and carbon and capture storage was needed to be able to guarantee stable energy with less emissions. US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the battery storage and grid pledges at the summit will set the tone at next week's G20 where she hopes countries set a similar target. By Jacqueline Echevarria Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Granholm calls for more efforts if US quits Paris


24/11/15
24/11/15

Cop: Granholm calls for more efforts if US quits Paris

New York, 15 November (Argus) — Countries at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, need to double down their efforts to fight climate change even if the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement, US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said. Granholm pointed out that seven years ago, when the US government abandoned international cooperation on climate, the international stage stepped forward to lead climate efforts. US states and cities also stepped up to fill the void left by the absence of federal policy, she told delegates at a high-level meeting. "Climate has never been only about the US, it has been about all of us", adding that no other country should think about pulling out of the Paris accord. Granholm highlighted that the country's policies to support the clean energy economy will ensure that investment in clean energy technologies will continue in the US. Her comments were in line with US climate advisor John Podesta's earlier this week . "We are keeping the US climate movement alive by taking every action available thanks to a strategy that lays the foundation for decades of climate and clean energy progress that will continue to grow faster than ever before." she said. The US is projected to add more than 60GW of clean energy in 2024, more than twice the amount achieved in a previous year, according to Granholm. She added that the US has invested over $1.5 trillion in clean technologies and infrastructure as a result of this industrial strategy. With businesses and consumers investing $6 for every dollar of federal investment. By Jacqueline Echevarria Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latin America can harness energy transition: World Bank


24/11/14
24/11/14

Latin America can harness energy transition: World Bank

Montevideo, 14 November (Argus) — Latin America and Caribbean countries have the resources the world needs for the energy transition, but need to make substantial changes to benefit from them, a World Bank official said. The region is focused on producing a long list of resources, from critical minerals to low-carbon hydrogen, for the energy transition. It produced resources for economic transformations in the past, but did not reap benefits. This time it could be different. "We still have the problem of opportunities being left on the table," William Maloney, the World Bank's chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, told Argus . He said the region should look to Nordic countries. "What we want to do is avoid another cycle of saying ‘okay, take our resources and give us 30pc, so we have budget support,' " he said on the sidelines of a bank-sponsored conference on innovation in Montevideo, Uruguay. The region is home to more than 50pc of lithium resources worldwide, according to the US Geological Survey, and also dominates in reserves of critical metals, including copper, silver and tin that are used in different components of the energy transition. It has vast natural gas reserves from Trinidad and Tobago down to Argentina. Maloney said the region should look at what Sweden has done with its forestry sector and Norway with oil. He said that Sweden's forestry sector has a network of state and private institutions working together to create knowledge and add value to the products. "This is what we have to do with our lithium, natural gas or oil," he said. Forestry products accounted for 8.6pc of Sweden's export earnings in 2023, according to the government's statistics agency. He said Norway came up with a plan when oil was discovered that allowed the oil majors to produce, but contracts included specific clauses on knowledge transfer and technology that let the country develop its own petroleum industry. Oil and gas accounted for 62pc of Norway's exports in 2023. It has 48.2 trillion cf of natural gas and in 2023 was the fourth natural gas exporter after the US, Russia and Qatar. "The idea is to approach foreign capital and foreign technology with ideas that go beyond taxes and beyond employment to learning how to do things ourselves," he said. "It does not have to be us or them, there is a negotiation to be had." By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages


24/11/14
24/11/14

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

Kingston, 14 November (Argus) — Guyana is lifting its floating power capacity to 111MW with the rental of plants that the government says will prevent widespread power cuts over the next two years. The government has contracted a 75MW power barge from Turkish firm Karpowership that installed a 36MW barge in May, finance minister Ashni Singh said on Wednesday. The government has not released the terms of the contracts for the floating plants that are being fired by imported heavy fuel oil. Karpowership has been given a two-year contract that the government says will expire with the scheduled commissioning of a $2bn natural gas project that includes a 300MW power plant. The project will be fed by gas from a deepwater block being worked by US major ExxonMobil. The agreements with Karpowership "will take us just beyond the period when the new plant comes on stream," Guyana's vice president Bharrat Jagdeo said. The growing oil producer in northern South America faces a widening power deficit as state power utility GPL cannot meet demand created by a rapidly expanding oil-fired economy, the government said. Power demand in the country of 750,000 people has grown from 115MW in 2020 to 175MW currently and is projected to reach 205MW by year-end, the government said. GPL's fuel oil-fired output of 165MW "does not allow for a comfortable reserve so we need adequate redundant capacity," an official told Argus . Guyana's contract for power barges from Karpowership is the company's third in the region. Six of the company's floating plants are supporting Cuba's faltering power system, while another is stationed in the Dominican Republic. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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