Viewpoint: LCFS plans could grow biofuels market

: Biofuels, Emissions, Oil products
20/12/28

Next year could prove to be a transformational period for new clean fuels programs, with lawmakers and regulators poised to take up low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) proposals across North America.

Recent growth in renewable fuel sales has been largely concentrated in California, where producers can layer the value of federal renewable identification numbers (RINs) on top of lucrative California LCFS credits, which have averaged $200/metric tonne this year for spot delivery.

The California experience has provided a model for other jurisdictions interested in mandating use of less carbon-intensive fuels such as renewable diesel, biodiesel, ethanol and renewable natural gas.

Renewable fuel producers are closely watching the development of Canada's Clean Fuel Standard, because it could lead to a significant increase in biofuel blending over the next decade. The program, which will cover fuels such as gasoline, diesel and fuel oil, is scheduled to be rolled out in 2022. The environment ministry recently issued its proposed regulations, and next year will be devoted to finalizing the program's elements. US renewable diesel producers view Canada as a new target market for their fuel.

In Washington state, prospects for an LCFS program appear to have improved following the 3 November election, according to state representative Joe Fitzgibbon (D), who has sponsored LCFS bills in each of the past two legislative sessions.

His proposal, which governor Jay Inslee (D) has made part of his 2021 climate policy agenda, would require a 10pc cut in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2028 and 20pc by 2035. While Fitzgibbon's previous bills have come up short in the state legislature, supporters believe 2021 is the year that it will make it across the finish line. With a large refining complex in Washington state, biofuels producers are eyeing a large source of demand if that clean fuels program becomes law in the spring session.

New York lawmakers could take action on an LCFS as part of the state budget process, which will begin in January and must be finished by 1 April.

"We hope we can get legislation through that vehicle, which would make it conceivable that regulations could be in place by the end of 2021, going into effect in 2022," New York League of Conservation Voters president Julie Tighe said at Argus' biofuel conference in November. "We are going to push for the state to move quickly and aggressively."

Tighe is leading a coalition of environmental groups and biofuel producers pushing for lawmakers to back an LCFS. The policy could also get a boost from a separate process to develop a plan for implementing major climate legislation the state enacted last year.

Other states, nearly on a monthly basis, have announced plans to explore the use of an LCFS. There is strong interest in the Midwest — particularly Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin. A task force advising Wisconsin governor Tony Evers (D) recently recommended that the state consider developing a LCFS proposal as soon as next summer as part of a broader plan to address climate change. The state, along with Minnesota and Illinois, have embraced the work done by the Midwestern Clean Fuels Policy Initiative.

Colorado completed an LCFS feasibility study this year, while Nevada officials earlier this month said they are considering an LCFS to help reach the state's climate policy goals.

Biofuel producers have already benefited from the trio of LCFS mandates on the Pacific coast — California, Oregon and British Columbia. All of these programs are poised for further growth. British Columbia over the summer extended its LCFS to 2030 with a 20pc carbon intensity reduction mandate. The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality next year plans to begin work on a Clean Fuels Program extension requested by governor Kate Brown (D) that would set a 25pc by 2035 mandate. And California – the largest renewable transportation fuels market in the US – will tighten the carbon intensity targets in its LCFS program to 8.75pc in 2021, up from 7.5pc this year.

These developments signal much greater demand for renewable fuels and greater compliance obligations for fossil fuel producers.

By Jessica Dell

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/01/14

Colonial shuts Line 1 due to Georgia spill: Update

Houston, 14 January (Argus) — Colonial Pipeline's main gasoline bearing line may be closed for more than a day as the company responds to a gasoline spill in Georgia detected on Tuesday. "Colonial has taken Line 1 out of service temporarily while we respond to a potential product release," the company said in a notice. "Normal operations continue on the remainder of the system." The spill occurred in Paulding County, Georgia, about 25 miles southwest of Marietta, Georgia. The company said it had crews on site responding to the incident. The company did not provide information on when the line would restart. Market sources said leak was small but it could take up to two days to resume operations. Line 1 has capacity to carry up to 1.3mn b/d of gasoline from Houston, Texas, to Greensboro, North Carolina. Cash prices for US Gulf coast 87 conventional gasoline in the Gulf coast ended Tuesday's session down by 3.19¢/USG at $2.115/USG, reversing gains from the previous session's 14-week high that was driven by higher blending demand. Liquidity fell during Tuesday's trading session with uncertainty over the length of the pipeline shut-down. The pipeline leak did not affect line space trading on Tuesday, which had already been falling. Values saw their sixth session of losses, shedding 0.25¢/USG day-over-day. A trade was reported at -1.5¢/USG, prior to the notice of the pipeline shut down, with no further trades reported for the remainder of the session. By Hannah Borai Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New York to propose GHG market rules in 'coming months’

25/01/14

New York to propose GHG market rules in 'coming months’

Houston, 14 January (Argus) — Draft rules for New York's carbon market will be ready in the "coming months," governor Kathy Hochul (D) said today. Regulators from the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) "will take steps forward on" establishing a cap-and-invest program and propose new emissions reporting requirements for sources while also creating "a robust investment planning process," Hochul said during her state of the state message. But the governor did not provide a timeline for the process beyond saying the agency's work do this work "over the coming months." Hochul's remarks come after regulators in September delayed plans to begin implementing New York's cap-and-invest program (NYCI) to 2026. At the time, DEC deputy commissioner Jon Binder said that draft regulations would be released "in the next few months." DEC, NYSERDA and Hochul's office each did not respond to requests for comment. Some environmental groups applauded Hochul's remarks, while also expressing concern about the state's next steps. Evergreen Action noted that the timeline for NYCI "appears uncertain" and called on lawmakers to "commit to this program in the 2025 budget." "For New York's economy, environment and legacy, we hope the governor commits to finalizing a cap-and-invest program this year," the group said. State law from 2019 requires New York to achieve a 40pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1990 levels by 2030 and an 85pc reduction by 2050. A state advisory group in 2022 issued a scoping plan that recommended the creation of an economy-wide carbon market to help the state reach those goals. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California GHG rulemaking hits speedbump

25/01/14

California GHG rulemaking hits speedbump

Houston, 14 January (Argus) — The California Air Resources Board (CARB) cap-and-trade program rulemaking is likely to weather further delays, according to one of the agency's top officials. The agency's "immediate" responsibility is to work with covered entities impacted by the ongoing Los Angeles County wildfires across its programs, according to deputy executive officer Rajinder Sahota. This means that the rulemaking is not "imminent or in the next few weeks." In addition, the agency needs to move carefully given the federal administration change , along with the negative response to proposed updates to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard received last year. CARB continues to evaluate program changes, with a focus on affordability, ambition and compliance costs. "We want to take time to ensure we get out foundational facts about the program especially as the legislature takes up the post-2030 role of the program," Sahota said. The cap-and-trade rulemaking has been marked by a series of delays, as regulators initially in 2023 estimated it would finish last year. In December , CARB said it would delay the publication of draft amendments until early 2025. CARB began to prepare for the rulemaking nearly two years ago, floating the idea of moving the cap-and-trade program to a more-stringent 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of a 48pc, compared with 1990 levels, rather than the current 40pc mandate. The agency's 2022 Scoping Plan prompted the idea as it showed a need for increased program ambition for California to remain on track for its target of net-zero by 2045. In line with this increased ambition, CARB will need to remove at least 180mn metric tonnes (t) of allowances from the 2026-2030 auction and allocation annual budgets to start with, and up to 265mn t in total from the program budgets from 2026-2045, agency staff have said. Quebec, California's partner in the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carbon market, previously delayed publishing its draft package from the originally planned September 2024 to the first quarter of this year, with implementation expected in the spring. While the regulation was nearly complete in late September, the Quebec Environmental Ministry decided to postpone, citing the need to wait for California. If California delays its work through the first quarter of the year, this will likely require Quebec to also push back its rulemaking. This will also shorten the runway for both market partners to formally implement changes by 2026. The news has punctured the bullish sentiment for market participants on a timely end to the rulemaking. California carbon allowances for December delivery initially traded as high as $35.25/t on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ahead of the announcement. The contract traded as low as $33.01/t after midday on Nodal Exchange following the news, before sliding lower in later trade. Outside of the WCI, Washington is also likely to see a slowdown in its carbon market ambitions. The state Department of Ecology is conducting its own rulemaking to align Washington's "cap-and-invest" program to facilitate linkage with the larger WCI market. But it will require California and Quebec to finalize their expected changes. California has indicated over last year that it does not intend to focus fully on linkage until its current rulemaking is complete. California's and Quebec's cap-and-trade programs cover major sources of the state's GHG emissions, including power plants and transportation fuels. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Bndes grants R480mn to ethanol producer

25/01/14

Brazil's Bndes grants R480mn to ethanol producer

Sao Paulo, 14 January (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R480mn ($79mn) for sugar and ethanol producer CMAA to increase biofuel production in the state of Minas Gerais. The bank will grant R220mn from its Climate Fund to raise the private-sector company's anhydrous ethanol output in its Vale do Pontal sugar and ethanol unit, in Limeira do Oeste city, by around 1,470 b/d. The plant will be able to produce up to 3,650 b/d. With new investments, the Vale do Pontal plant will process 4mn metric tonnes (t) of sugarcane/crop, up from 2.7mn t/crop previously, producing hydrous ethanol, raw sugar and electric power for the Brazilian domestic market. The Climate Fund will be also used to double CMAA's power generation to 68MW. The remaining R260mn will be taken from Bndes' services and machinery program to modernize existing equipment and buy new agricultural machines. CMAA's Vale do Pontal, Vale do Tijuco and Canapolis units are expected to use R50mn, R160mn and R50mn, respectively. These resources can be allocated to buy, sell or produce machines, industrial systems or technological and automation goods, as well as hiring national services and machine imports, Bndes said. The company will also be able to increase issuance of Cbio carbon credits, following the rise in ethanol output. By Maria Albuquerque Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU air traffic growth threatens carbon budget: Study

25/01/14

EU air traffic growth threatens carbon budget: Study

London, 14 January (Argus) — European aviation's Paris climate agreement-aligned carbon budget will be depleted by 2026 if air traffic grows as industry expects in the coming years, according to a study by Brussels-based non-governmental organisation Transport & Environment. While the EU has pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the aviation sector is still expected to emit 79mn t CO2 by this date, according to scenarios put forward by European aircraft manufacturer Airbus and US-based Boeing. Airbus sees air traffic growing at an average rate of 5.7pc/yr in 2024-27 and by 2.6pc/yr in 2024-43, while Boeing expects a 5.6pc/yr rise in 2024-33 and a 2.5pc/yr rise in 2024-43, Transport & Environment said. If these projections are accurate, the aviation sector carbon budget needed to remain in line with the Paris accord's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be depleted by 2026, the study found. Aircraft will have to burn 59pc more fuel in 2050 than in 2019 to meet this increased demand, the study found, even after taking into consideration efficiency improvements. This growth in traffic would also cancel out the benefits of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). The expected growth also implies that the sector could be burning as much fossil kerosine in 2050 as it did in 2023 — some 21.1mn t — even with 42pc of fuel use covered by SAFs under EU mandates, Transport & Environment said. The EU expects air traffic growth to be 60pc lower than the Airbus and Boeing projections. But even this smaller increase would mean emissions rising by 46pc by 2040 against 1990 levels, the study found. Transport & Environment called for all flights departing the EU to be included in the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS) by 2027, as part of efforts to make air ticket prices reflect the sector's climate impact. The scheme currently applies only to journeys within the European Economic Area. Tax exemptions on jet fuel should also be removed and value added tax applied to air tickets, the NGO said. It also recommended halting the expansion of airport infrastructure and improving rail infrastructure so that the railways can compete with air travel. And it called for penalties for non-compliance with SAF mandates and financial support for SAF production through auctions and contracts for difference. The European Commission's proposed target to cut the EU's overall net emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels "is completely meaningless without concrete policies to reduce emissions from aviation", the NGO's aviation director, Jo Dardenne, said. By Navneet Vyasan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more