New Zealand told to ban imports of fossil fuel vehicles

: Oil products
21/02/02

The New Zealand government has been told it needs to do more to achieve its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, with a recommendation to ban the import of gasoline- and diesel-fuelled cars between 2030-35 and switch to electric vehicles (EVs).

The government must pick up the pace, and it will not meet its targets without strong and decisive action now to drive low-emissions technology and behaviour change across all sectors, the country's Climate Change Commission (CCC) said. The CCC was created in 2019 with the passage of the zero-carbon legislation in 2019 to commit the country to net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.

Priority areas for action include increasing the number of EVs on New Zealand's roads, the CCC said. Transport emissions in 2018 made up 36.3pc of total net GHGs of 45.7mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). New Zealand's gross GHG emissions in 2018 were 78.9mn t of CO2e, with the difference between net and gross GHGs reflecting the removal of emissions through forestry.

"We want to see the majority of the vehicles coming into New Zealand for everyday use electric by 2035. The government will need to provide support and incentives to make this happen," the CCC said.

New Zealand has no domestic auto production industry. Its oil product consumption was 130,000 b/d in the July-September quarter last year, according to government data. The country's sole refinery, the 135,000 b/d Marsden Point, is currently considering converting to a product terminal.

Heat, industry and electricity emissions made up 41pc of total GHGs in 2018 or around 18.8mn t of CO2e, the CCC report said. Low and medium temperature heat in industry and buildings could be decarbonised by 2050 through a switch away from coal, diesel and gas to electricity and biomass. The CCC's analysis indicates that these costs could range up to NZ$250/t ($180/t) of CO2e reduced.

Emissions from international aviation and shipping are not currently part of the 2050 emissions reduction target for New Zealand. The CCC will review whether these should be included in the 2050 target in 2024.

"We have tested to make sure that our path could allow New Zealand to meet the 2050 net-zero long-lived gas emissions target including international aviation and shipping emissions in case a decision is made in future to include these in the 2050 target," it said.

The New Zealand government plans to strengthen its nationally determined contribution to meet its obligations under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, said New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern. New Zealand currently plans to reduce GHGs by 30pc by 2030 from 2005 gross levels of around 80mn t of CO2e.

The draft CCC advice is open for consultation until 14 March and the final advice will be released before 31 May, said New Zealand climate change minister James Shaw. The government will respond with an emissions reduction plan before the end of the year.

By Kevin Morrison

Emissions budget recommendations for New Zealand government			(CO2e/yr)
	Emissions budget 1 (2022-25)	Emissions budget 2 (2026-30)	Emissions budget 3 (2031-35)

Annual average	68	57	45
Source: CCC

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24/12/19

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

Adds updates throughout Washington, 19 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump is offering his support for a rewritten spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown but leave out a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. The bill — which Republicans rewrote today after Trump attacked an earlier bipartisan agreement — would avoid a government shutdown starting Saturday, deliver agricultural aid and provide disaster relief. Trump said the bill was a "very good deal" that would also include a two-year suspension of the "very unnecessary" ceiling on federal debt, until 30 January 2027. "All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote 'YES' for this Bill, TONIGHT!" Trump wrote in a social media post. Passing the bill would require support from Democrats, who are still reeling after Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — upended a spending deal they had spent weeks negotiating with US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). Democrats have not yet said if they would vote against the new agreement. "We are prepared to move forward with the bipartisan agreement that we thought was negotiated in good faith with House Republicans," House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said earlier today. That earlier deal would have kept the government funded through 14 March, in addition to providing a one-year extension to the farm bill, $100bn in disaster relief and $10bn in aid for farmers. The bill would also provide a waiver that would avoid a looming ban on summertime sales of E15 across much of the US. Ethanol industry officials said they would urge lawmakers to vote against any package without the E15 provision. "Pulling E15 out of the bill makes absolutely no sense and is an insult to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers," Renewable Fuels Association chief executive Geoff Cooper said. If no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET, federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail services, although some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a short-term funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Congress passes waterways bill

24/12/19

US Congress passes waterways bill

Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Senate has passed a bipartisan waterways infrastructure bill, providing a framework for further investment in the country's waterways system. The waterways bill, also known as the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), was approved by the Senate in a 97-1 vote on 18 December after clearing the US House of Representatives on 10 December. The WRDA's next stop is the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the bill. The WRDA has been passed every two years, authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to undertake waterways infrastructure and navigation projects. Funding for individual projects must still be approved by Congress. Several agriculture-based groups voiced their support for the bill, saying it will improve transit for agricultural products on US waterways. The bill also shifts the funding of waterways projects to 75pc from the federal government and 25pc from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund instead of the previous 65-35pc split. "Increasing the general fund portion of the cost-share structure will promote much needed investment for inland navigation projects, as well as provide confidence to the industry that much needed maintenance and modernization of our inland waterway system will happen," Fertilizer Institute president Corey Rosenbusch said. The bill includes a provision to assist with the damaged Wilson Lock along the Tennessee River in Alabama. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Politics, economy key to bitumen recovery

24/12/19

Viewpoint: Politics, economy key to bitumen recovery

London, 19 December (Argus) — Political change and uncertainty will come to dominate the European bitumen market more than usual in 2025, while demand could decline further than it did in 2024. Market participants are trying to pin down the bottom of the market for bitumen demand, after falling for several years in most of Europe. And support for demand seems far from certain in 2025 given spiralling public debt, political uncertainty and a lack of funding for road maintenance and projects in most European countries. But there could be some positive economic news as interest rates start to fall and inflation returns to more normal levels, while the outlook for oil prices in 2025 is less bullish than previously with plentiful supply forecast. Increased supply and lower crude prices would tend to pressure lower bitumen prices, which could support consumption, given road budgets can be stretched further. Politics seems more unpredictable than ever, with various elections and other changes expected in 2025, often shifting to the right or populist wing in Europe. The necessity of road maintenance and project work to support economies is plain to see for governments, but there is uncertainty on the priority they will be given by some new political forces emerging. Bitumen production is still going to be plentiful in the new year, despite some refinery closures and problems in the past year and more. Issues at both Greek and Turkish refineries, which are powerhouses for Mediterranean bitumen exports, will not have a major impact given the weaker demand in much of north Africa and the lack of available arbitrage routes. Outlets to the US and east of Suez are closed at present and show little sign of re-emerging strongly in the period ahead. Spring maintenance, particularly a February to May shutdown at Algerian Sonatrach's 198,000 b/d Augusta refinery in Sicily, will also limit supply just when demand starts to seasonally rise. In the last viewpoint Argus expected a weaker year for 2024 demand, while also looking at pricing and how differentials to high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could go negative. As winter approaches at the end of 2024 this has happened in the north of Europe and fob cargo discounts have been seen in the eastern Mediterranean all year. Bitumen market fundamentals have drifted further away from those of crude and HSFO in the last year, although a relationship still exists with HSFO maintaining a persistent standing as a price marker for inland bitumen markets for weekly or monthly calculations and for export waterborne prices as the basis with a differential. But Argus expected that traders would seek more arbitrage movements from the European Mediterranean, and this did not come to fruition in 2024, with little seen moving to the US and even less to the Asia-Pacific region. There is not much indication this will change in 2025 with lower prices and plentiful supply in Asia and US supply points. Poorer refining margins may have an impact in 2025 after the strength post-Covid, which will put more renewed pressure on older and simpler refiners to close. These facilities are more likely to produce bitumen. Instead traders will rely on large new ships to feed supply and move bitumen longer distances, a trend already well underway with a number of new ships entering service. Freight costs should stay at elevated levels given the ETS scheme comes into fuller effect in 2025 after first being implemented in 2024. The inclusion of shipping in this EU scheme will oblige shipowners and charterers of vessels from 5,000 gross tonnes to purchase carbon allowances, rising from 40pc of carbon emissions in 2024, to 70pc in 2025, before 100pc in 2026. From uncertainty can come opportunity and with the worst of the economic outlook now behind us then perhaps 2025 can be the beginning of the end in the downtrend for bitumen demand and we start to see vital road maintenance work and infrastructure projects get the funding they need. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

24/12/19

Reliability drives New Zealand power mix: Minister

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — New Zealand's conservative coalition government wants to ensure reliable generation, whether that is from coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources, the country's resources minister Shane Jones told Argus this week. Jones was also clear about the need to draw a distinction between "the expectations on [a] small, open trading nation like [New Zealand] not to use coal and the major hope[s] and needs of the average New Zealander for affordable power, reliable power." "If [reliable power] comes from coal, that's the mix and the menu for the future," he added. Jones argued that existing renewable power sources cannot exclusively provide for New Zealand's energy needs. He instead suggested that his government is interested in promoting alternative power sources such as oil, gas and geothermal, through investments and policy changes. New Zealand's coal-fired power generation surged between July-September, according to the New Zealand's Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE). Coal rose to 8pc of total generation from 3pc a year earlier, following a drop in hydroelectric power production. The country burned 363,513t of coal over those months, more than tripling its use for power generation purposes compared to the same period last year. Oil, gas Jones has taken steps to boost the country's oil sector since taking office in late 2023, following the coalition's victory over the centre-left Labour party. The minister introduced the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill in June, a piece of legislation that he described as being "aimed at increasing investor confidence in petroleum exploration and development." Jones told Argus that under the previous government, "people who may have been willing to [make] investment[s] and bring patient capital concluded that New Zealand was no longer available as a destination for oil and gas and this has resulted in a diminution in [oil] investment." The Crown Minerals Amendment Bill will overturn a 2018 ban on offshore oil exploration, which was introduced while Jones was serving in the previous Labour-led coalition government. New Zealand's oil sector increased its annual well spending from NZ$110mn ($63.2mn) in 2018 to NZ$403mn, in the years following the ban in 2018. The total number of active oil permits in the country has plunged from 56 to 37 over the same period, MBIE data show. New Zealand likely houses at least 223.5bn m³ of undiscovered, offshore gas reserves; 249mn bl of undiscovered, offshore oil reserves; and 177mn bl of undiscovered, offshore NGL reserves, mostly scattered around the North Island, according to US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates in 2022. The country's discovered, recoverable reserves are at between 38.3mn-52.7mn bl of oil; 29.4bn-39.8bn m³ of gas; and between 1.2mn–1.4mn t of LPG as of 1 January 2024, according to the MBIE. Besides restarting oil exploration, the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill also seeks to change permitting processes to drive capital into the sector. Permits are currently allocated through a competitive tender process, Jones told Argus this week. The government wants "the flexibility to use alternative processes to match investor interest in the most efficient and effective way by allowing the option of using non-tender methods." MBIE has indicated that the government may start using ‘priority in time' tenders, which allocates permits to the first eligible projects that apply for them, once the bill passes. But the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill does not specify how the government will manage non-competitive tenders. The government is also not using the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill to "specifically intervene in coal mining operations" in New Zealand, Jones said. But coal demand will fall "in the event that [the government is] able to expand the supply of indigenous gas," he noted. Geothermal The government's energy strategy also appears to involve doubling down on domestic geothermal generation, which is New Zealand's second most common source of power. Geothermal generators produced 2,363GWh of power between July-September, accounting for 20.5pc of total generation, in line with historical averages, according to MBIE data. New Zealand's government seems to be trying to push that share up. The government in early December decided to allocate up to NZ$60mn of public infrastructure funding to research for deep, geothermal energy production. The work will focus on drilling geothermal wells up to 6km deep, nearly twice the depth of standard wells. Jones told Argus that New Zealand officials are currently in Japan, discussing supercritical geothermal generation opportunities with engineers and scientists. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock

24/12/18

US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has proposed a new lock to replace the LaGrange Lock and Dam (L&D) near Beardstown, Illinois, as part of the Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program (NESP). The project would be the first new lock for NESP, a program that invests in infrastructure along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers. The new 1,200ft proposed LaGrange Lock would allow for passage of more barges in a single lockage, instead of having to split the tow in two with the current 600ft LaGrange Lock. At the moment, most tows trying to pass through the LaGrange lock experience multiple hour delays. The new LaGrange lock would have an estimated cost of $20mn, with a construction timeline of five years. The project area would be located on the west bank of the Illinois River near the 85-year old LaGrange L&D, encompassing 425 acres. Real estate acquisition, design plans and contractors are already in place, said the Corps. The current LaGrange lock would remain in operation and become an auxiliary chamber. The Corps opened the upcoming project to public comments on 11 December and will close on 3 January. NESP has four other projects along the Mississippi River. Another full lock construction project is anticipated for Lock and Dam 25. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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