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EU mulls expanded carbon border

  • : Electricity, Emissions, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 21/02/02

Refineries, paper and aluminium should be covered by the EU's forthcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism, alongside cement, steel, chemicals and fertilisers, say a broad cross-party group of members of the European Parliament.

Parliament's green, liberal, socialist and centre-right groups joined up to table a compromise amendment on the carbon border adjustment measure, which calls on the European Commission to propose, including from 2023, "all" imports of products and commodities covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS), also when embedded in intermediate or final products.

Given the cross-party support, the parliament's environment committee is expected to adopt the amendment on 4-5 February, thereby setting a position ahead of the commission's formal legal proposal for a carbon border mechanism. And following an impact assessment, the group wants the carbon border to specifically cover the power sector and energy-intensive industrial sectors such as "cement, steel, aluminium, oil refinery, paper, glass, chemicals and fertilisers".

A key question for those sectors that will be covered is whether they can continue to benefit from compensation measures aimed at combating unfair competition by third-country firms not falling under the EU ETS or similar carbon pricing systems.

The committee's Green draftsman, Yannick Jadot, previously called for EU and national compensation for EU ETS costs to "immediately cease" as soon as the carbon border enters into force. Jadot had argued that this was the only way to make the EU's carbon border compatible with World Trade Organisation rules.

But another amendment, with broad cross-party support, now calls for implementation of the carbon border mechanism to go "hand in hand with the parallel, gradual, rapid and eventual complete phase-out of" current measures for EU firms facing competition from exporters in third countries that do not pay carbon costs.

The final legal text for the measure, expected to be proposed by the commission by the end of June, will have to be agreed by parliament with EU member states. EU leaders have called for such a measure to be up and running by 1 January 2023.

The commission is considering three core options for the carbon border measure, for a "few" sectors trading "energy-intensive raw materials internationally". These are an import tax, a new excise duty on carbon-intensive goods and a mechanism in the form of a notional ETS.


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24/12/23

German heating oil demand dips, diesel stocks reduced

German heating oil demand dips, diesel stocks reduced

Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Heating oil consumers in Germany are refraining from purchasing because of high inventories, while importers are lowering their diesel stocks to maintain low bio-blended reserves. Reported volumes of heating oil traded to Argus fell by nearly 35pc last week. Consumers see little need to increase their stocks that, although they have steadily declined, remain higher than the same period in 2023 at 59.6pc, Argus MDX data show. Heating oil traded at about €1.50/100l higher than the previous week, further deterring consumers from last-minute purchases ahead of the Christmas holiday. Importers are striving to keep their diesel stocks minimal until the year's end. Obligated parties will be unable to use any surplus greenhouse gas (GHG) certificates from previous years in 2025 and 2026, so importers that have already met their obligations this year are eager to avoid generating more certificates until January. As a result, demand is low for diesel imports into Germany's northern ports and to storage facilities along the Rhine river. Northern Germany experienced a significant drop in imports in December to the lowest since September, Vortexa data show. But importers and barge operators are preparing for increased import activity in early 2025 to replenish their biodiesel inventories as quickly as possible. Suppliers at the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery in Bavaria are experiencing low stocks, primarily as a result of heightened demand in early December when buyers were active before an increased CO2 levy and the GHG quota take effect on 1 January. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: China SiMn prices face pressure in 2025


24/12/23
24/12/23

Viewpoint: China SiMn prices face pressure in 2025

Beijing, 23 December (Argus) — Chinese silico-manganese (SiMn) alloy prices are expected to face downward pressure in 2025, as unpromising steel outlooks may outpace potential further output curbs at most Chinese alloy smelters. Argus -assessed prices for 65/17-grade alloy fell to 6,000-6,150 yuan/t ($822-842/t) ex-works on 19 December, down from Yn8,200-8,500/t ex-works on 30 May, when prices rose to a multi-year high after Australia-based South32's output suspension at its Gemco mine sharply lifted manganese ore feedstock prices. A sustained decline in steel demand and mounting inventories at many alloy plants forced alloy spot prices downwards from June onwards, although more suppliers started to hold offers firm in the past few weeks on the back of higher ore costs and restocking purchases from steel mills before the end of this year. Slowing steel demand China's crude steel output in January-November fell by 2.7pc from a year earlier to 929.19mn t, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics. Steel production in November fell by 4.3pc from 81.88mn t in October. China's crude steel output is expected to have inched down further in December, as more domestic mills will conduct annual equipment maintenance before the end of this year, according to market participants. The output decline was attributed primarily to the weakening domestic real-estate sector, a major consumer of crude steel, in which investment from January-November fell by 10pc on the year. Domestic steel consumption has shown no signs of picking up, with regional steel prices having fallen in November. Shanghai's mainstream hot-rolled coil ex-warehouse prices assessed by Argus fell to Yn3,470/t on 29 November, down by Yn50 from 30 October. China's real-estate industry is still facing challenges, although the government has introduced fiscal policies that support the slowing construction sector. There remains the likelihood of a decline in sales and housing prices in 2025, according to market participants, given the current scale of unfinished projects and unsold house inventories. Reduced alloy output Lower steel demand during the economic slowdown and a squeeze in profit margins at most alloy plants caused by higher ore feedstock costs and lower bid prices caused Chinese Simn production to fall this year. Domestic output of the alloy is unlikely to recover in 2025 because of unprofitable margins and shrinking steel consumption. China's production of the bulk alloy is estimated to have fallen to about 10.45mn t this year, down from about 11.8mn t in 2023 and 9.85mn t in 2022, some market participants told Argus . More alloy plants in China's Inner Mongolia and Ningxia province were forced to cut or suspend operations in the first half of this year, particularly over March-May, when China's output fell by nearly 20pc on the year to about 2.34mn t. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are China's key producing hubs for SiMn, accounting for 60-70pc of China's total production. Reduced alloy demand, falling alloy prices and lower shipments from South32 weighed on China's imports of manganese ore feedstock from main suppliers. China's manganese ore imports declined by 7.8pc on the year to 26.79mn t in January-November, customs data show. The average import price was $152/t for January-November, down by 3.7pc on the year. China's ore imports from Australia decreased by 55pc on the year to 2.11mn t in January-November, while China imported more ores from South Africa and Ghana to make up for the loss. Argus expects China's ore imports to rise next year as South32 restarted mining activity at its Gemco unit in June and is considering resuming exports next year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Asia scrap set to face uncertainty in 2025


24/12/23
24/12/23

Viewpoint: Asia scrap set to face uncertainty in 2025

Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — The Asian scrap metal sector is poised to face a tumultuous start in 2025, coming under pressure from a supply glut of steel exports from China, persistently low steel demand and uncertainty stemming from mounting protectionist measures to safeguard domestic steel businesses. An ongoing oversupply of steel products is expected to exert continuous downward pressure on Asia's ferrous sector, at least in the first half-quarter of 2025. China's crude steel production is set to surpass the 1bn t mark again this year as production stood at 850.7mn t across January-October. And it is clear that domestic steel demand in the country has lagged behind supply. China exported 101.2mn t from January-November this year, marking a 22.6pc spike from the same period in 2023. The surge was particularly evident in October, when exports grew by 40.8pc year on year, hitting an eight-year high as Chinese mills sought export markets to relieve domestic sales pressures. Beijing has announced a series of stimulus measures since late September, but the impact of these measures so far has been limited to cushioning falls in the property market as the recovery in property sales has been largely confined to top-tier cities, and market participants expect any recovery to remain subdued in 2025. Taiwan Taiwan's ferrous sector has seen a series of setbacks this year in the form of natural calamities, geopolitical tensions, inclement weather and increased competition from cheap semi-finished steel from Russia, China and Indonesia. In addition, real-estate demand has been significantly lower since the third quarter of this year after Taiwan's central bank tightened credit controls. The weaker real-estate market has driven many construction companies to suspend or delay their projects, which dented steel and steel scrap demand further. The ferrous scrap price and demand outlook is mixed, and many participants foresee no improvements even by February or March. South Korea South Korean steelmakers have faced significant challenges this year, and the world's sixth-largest steel producer is expected to face persistent headwinds in 2025 on the global economic slowdown, stiff competition from other low-cost steel producers, potential tariffs under US president-elect Donald Trump's second term and rising electricity prices. South Korea's leading steelmaker, Posco, shut down its No 1 wire rod mill at the Pohang Steel Works in November, after 45 years of operation in response to a the global oversupply of wire rods and intensified competition from low-cost imports, particularly from China. Hyundai has also shut down its Pohang No 2 plant, which has capacity of 700,000t/yr for long products used in the construction sector. The closure of these operations, coupled with prolonged low demand, probably will limit South Korean buyers' appetite for steel scrap in the first quarter of next year. Vietnam But there is hope for another key Asian steelmaking and consumption hub — Vietnam. Finished steel product sales rose by 15.6pc on the year to 24.5mn t in the first 10 months of this year, while steel exports grew by 6.2pc to 7.1mn t, according to the Vietnam Steel Association. Scrap imports also increased, by 11.7pc on the year, during the period. Market participants expect domestic construction steel demand to increase next year, driven by government-led infrastructure projects aimed at achieving a GDP growth target of 6.5-7.0pc. On the flip side, Vietnam steelmakers are facing various anti-dumping investigations in other markets, and seaborne steel prices will be under pressure if the Chinese domestic steel market continues to show weakness in 2025. In addition, the export outlook from China may ease, with more countries introducing protectionist measures to safeguard their local steel industries. Several more countries this year have implemented or are considering imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products. These include major economies such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the EU, India and Canada. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan carmakers Honda, Nissan start formal merger talks


24/12/23
24/12/23

Japan carmakers Honda, Nissan start formal merger talks

Tokyo, 23 December (Argus) — Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan said today they have officially started merger talks and are aiming to close a deal by June 2025. Fellow Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi is also considering joining the transaction. Honda and Nissan have signed an initial agreement to discuss a merger, including by setting up a joint holding company under which the current brands would operate as subsidiaries. Honda will appoint a majority of the holding company's board members including its president or representative director, Honda's president Toshihiro Mibe said on 23 December. Mitsubishi will make a final decision on whether to participate in the negotiations before the end of January 2025. A Honda representative told Argus on 18 December that the firm was exploring a possible merger with Nissan. Collaboration on the electrification of automobiles is one of the major reasons for the merger, according to Honda and Nissan. The firms agreed a strategic partnership in March to work together on electrification, studying possible areas of co-operation in developing automotive software platforms, core components relating to electric vehicles (EVs) and complementary products. Honda aims to electrify all its new cars by 2040 and is investing ¥10 trillion ($64bn) by 2030 partly to reduce battery costs, which account for around 30-40pc of the total cost of producing EVs, Mibe said in May. Honda's combined sales of EVs and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs) more than doubled to around 42,000 units in 2023, according to the company. But this only accounts for around 1pc of its total sales. Further investments on electrification by a single manufacturer are not feasible, Mibe said on 23 December. Nissan produced 3.4mn vehicles in 2023. It does not provide a precise breakdown for global EV sales, although it said in August 2023 that such sales had surpassed 1mn units since its first delivery in 2010. This is dwarfed by foreign EV competitors, including Chinese producer BYD and US manufacturer Tesla, whose sales exceeded 3mn and 1.8mn units respectively in 2023 alone. The merger is also designed to optimise facilities owned by Honda and Nissan, Mibe said. But he denied that it would lead to a reduction in production capacity or asset cuts. The companies instead aim to expand output, Mibe added, although he did not disclose a detailed plan. Nissan is struggling to make a profit, partly because of weak EV demand. The company's net profit slumped by 94pc on the year to ¥19.2bn in April-September, prompting it to cut global production capacity, including for EVs, by 20pc to around 4mn units/yr. Nissan's financial struggles will not affect its collaboration with Honda, but it needs to accelerate its financial recovery, Nissan chief executive Makoto Uchida said on 7 November. But Mibe suggested on 23 December that Nissan's financial situation could cause the proposed merger to be scrapped. Japan's trade and industry ministry (Meti) has yet to make any official comment on the merger talks. But Meti minister Yoji Muto said on 20 December that restructuring the industry would generally help increase the value of private entity and promote innovation. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Securing steady Ni ore supply the new focus


24/12/23
24/12/23

Viewpoint: Securing steady Ni ore supply the new focus

Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — Nickel ore supply security has become a main focus for investors and smelters after the delayed approval of Indonesian nickel mining work plans (RKABs) resulted in tight spot ore availability earlier in the year. Ramping up capacity and maximising profit margins have always been the priority for smelters, but the shortage of Indonesian nickel ore in some months this year turned their attention to securing ore supply instead. The lack of ore availability was largely attributed to slow RKAB approval rates and a disproportionate allocation of RKABs to companies and regions, particularly during the monsoon in May-August. Some smelters resorted to cutting production, while others opted to seek out alternative supplies. Imports of nickel ore to Indonesia were 55 times higher on the year in January-October, with the Philippines providing the bulk at 9.08mn t. Indonesia has approved a quota of 272mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) for 2024 and 247mn wmt for 2025, according to market participants. And more RKABs are expected to be approved in the coming months. Indonesia's nickel production — including nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed precipitate hydroxide (MHP) and matte — is projected to rise by 17pc on the year to 2.15mn t of nickel metal equivalent this year, and is expected to increase by 12pc to 2.4mn t in 2025, Argus estimates. The increase is largely driven by MHP and matte, while NPI growth has slowed owing to a lukewarm stainless steel sector. Indonesia-produced NPI is typically exported to China's stainless steel melt sector, whose output is projected to climb by 4.1pc on the year to 38.4mn t in 2024. But the growth rate could slow to 3.5pc given lacklustre demand in the machine building and property sectors. Indonesia has become the main global supplier of MHP and matte after a nickel price downturn forced various western mines and plants to enter care and maintenance, temporary suspensions or shutdowns. MHP and matte are the feedstocks to produce nickel sulphate, which is used in the production of nickel cathodes or batteries and subsequently electric vehicles (EVs). Nickel consumption in the Chinese EV sector is expected to remain firm at 343,000t in 2024 and 2025, while cathode output is expected to increase with new projects under way. The London Metal Exchange warehouse system has become a popular option to store the surplus cathodes. The forecast NPI, MHP and matte output of 2.15mn t and 2.4mn t of nickel metal equivalent would require 217mn wmt and 246mn wmt of nickel ore in 2024 and 2025, respectively, according to Argus data. This suggests that RKAB for 2024 and 2025 is probably more than enough to meet demand. But the unpredictability of the approval timeline, allocation of RKABs and weather conditions could disrupt ore availability, prompting smelters to adopt a more cautious stance — monitoring the progress of further RKAB approvals while actively securing new sources of nickel ore supply. Locking in supply agreements with nickel mining firms seems to have become a main priority of smelters, with collaborations increasing between Chinese investors and mining companies. Chinese battery metals and materials producer Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM) is partnering Indonesian nickel firm Merdeka Battery Material to secure ore for their high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) production. GEM has another joint HPAL project with PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI), a subsidiary of Brazilian mining firm Vale. PTVI will also supply nickel ore to a HPAL project with Chinese battery metals and materials producer Huayou Cobalt and global automaker Ford. The Indonesian government extended mineral and coal information system Simbara to the nickel and tin supply chain in in July, in an effort to increase domestic and export shipment transparency, curb illegal mining and raise state revenue. But the system's implementation could disrupt steady nickel ore supply and consequently raise production costs because only registered mining firms with RKABs are allowed to issue invoices and billings, market participants suggested. Nickel ore demand VS RKAB.pdf Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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