Novatek sees LNG supply shortfall by 2030

: Natural gas
21/02/09

The company believes LNG's cost competitiveness will ensure supply growth even if demand is low, writes Elaine Atwood

A lack of new final investment decisions (FIDs) and mounting worldwide demand could lead to an LNG supply shortfall by the end of this decade, Russian firm Novatek has said.

LNG supply could fall short by about 150mn t/yr by the end of this decade without additional FIDs, an issue that "needs to be addressed", Novatek chief financial officer Mark Gyetvay said at the virtual European Gas Conference.

Novatek expects worldwide LNG demand to continue to grow even as countries decarbonise their energy systems. The idea that gas is "falling out of the equation is grossly overstated", Gyetvay said.

Gyetvay expects increased coal-to-gas switching in the power sector, hydrogen production and gas being used in tandem with intermittent renewables for power generation to boost gas demand in the coming years.

LNG's cost competitiveness will ensure supply growth even in a lower-demand scenario, as "the lowest-cost producers will prevail", Gyetvay said.

And the flexibility provided by LNG will continue to be useful over seasonal demand fluctuations, as demonstrated by the recent spike in northeast Asian demand, Gyetvay said.

The firm expects gas demand in Asia to grow "very strongly" despite China's net-zero emissions target for 2060, and anticipates that 80-85pc of its LNG output will be delivered to the region in the future.

But new FIDs will need to be made to meet the rising demand, Novatek said. While spot northeast Asian LNG prices spiked earlier this month, firms are unlikely to make FIDs based on "inflated prices", Gyvetvay said.

Novatek still expects to make an FID on the 5mn t/yr Obsky LNG terminal this year, having postponed it from last year.

Gyetvay foresees a move away from FIDs being secured by traditional long-term supply contracts towards a model involving equity sponsors, given the rising number of firms seeking to secure volumes on a short-term basis.

The company expects supply sold under long-term contracts to fall to almost 50pc by 2025, from 65-75pc five years ago.

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24/11/22

Opinion: Bridging the divide

Cop summits put the gap between developed and developing countries in stark relief and demand a strong moderator Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The UN's Cop climate summits always involve a high-stakes test of multilateralism. But the Cop 29 gathering that is crawling towards its conclusion in Baku this week has pushed this concept to its limit. The summit faced serious challenges even before it kicked off. Azerbaijan took on the presidency relatively late in the day and the country's president, Ilham Aliyev, irritated some delegates with an opening speech that lauded oil and gas as a "gift from God" and railed against "western fake news". His comments on European nations' Pacific island territories prompted France's energy minister to boycott the talks, while the Cop chief executive was caught on film trying to facilitate fossil fuel deals. And the broader geopolitical background for the gathering was, of course, "grim", as EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra noted, even before delegates tackled the summit's key discussion topic — money. At the heart of this year's Cop is the need to agree a new climate finance goal — a hugely divisive subject at the best of times. Discussions start with countries' wealth, take into account historical responsibility for emissions, and often end up with accusations of neocolonialism and calls for reparations. Figuring out who pays for what is crucial to advancing any kind of meaningful energy transition — and is hence a regular Cop sticking point. Developing countries have long argued that they are not able to decarbonise or implement energy transition plans without adequate financing, and they are prepared to hold other issues hostage to achieve this. Equally, developed countries will not budge on finance until stronger emissions cuts are pledged. Cop summits throw the developed/developing world divide into stark relief as well as shine an unforgiving light on weak management and oversight of Cop debate — an event where every country has an equal vote and needs a strong moderator to bridge that deepening developed and developing world division. This year's summit falls between two much more heavily-hyped Cops, and next year's host Brazil has already taken centre stage, boosted by also holding the G20 presidency. Cop 29 president Mukhtar Babayev asked Brazil and 2021 host the UK to help ensure a balanced outcome, while a strong focus on climate at this week's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro lent some support to discussions in Baku. More challenges loom. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to pull the US — the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter — out of the UN Paris Agreement for a second time, and there are fears that fellow G20 member Argentina might quit too. But the Cop process has dealt with some of these challenges before — it is built to withstand a term or two of an unsympathetic world leader, and any exits from the Paris accord could galvanise others to step up their policy commitments, several delegates in Baku suggest. And the issue overshadowing it all — and the reason nearly 200 countries still turn up each year — is not going away. The world has already warmed by around 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels and this year is set to smash last year's record as the hottest. Leaders from both developed and developing countries spoke of catastrophic floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms. It has become a truism, but when it comes to the tricky issue of money, the only thing more daunting than the cost of tackling climate change is the cost of ignoring it. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

24/11/21

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost a third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

24/11/21

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

London, 21 November (Argus) — Investment funds' net long TTF position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) jumped to a new all-time high earlier this month, outstripping the previous record in late August. The latest weekly data from Ice show investment funds' net long TTF position shot up to a new record at just under 273TWh by 15 November, topping the previous all-time high of roughly 268TWh in the week ending 30 August , revised data show. After peaking in August, the position dropped to 192TWh on 20 September, and held broadly stable before jumping 33.6TWh in the week ending 25 October . TTF prices rose in the following two weeks, but funds trimmed their net long position to around 226TWh on 8 November ( see graph ). But in the most recent week of data from Ice, investment funds' net long position shot up to just under 273TWh by 15 November, a new record high. Over the same period of 8-15 November, The Argus TTF front-month contract rose by more than 9pc, and there were similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 8pc ( see table ). Significant price volatility in recent trading sessions has also prompted Ice to increase margin rates by around 20pc on all contracts out to September 2025 , with smaller increases further down the curve. Austrian incumbent OMV announced this week Russia's Gazprom would halt its contractual supply from 16 November , prompting sizeable day-on-day price moves across Europe and possibly encouraging investment funds to go longer and capitalise on the volatility. But central European flows have changed only slightly since then, with roughly the same amount of Russian gas entering the region. Higher TTF prices have also caused LNG diversions from Asia to Europe in recent days, which reached double digits on 19 November . Such a large net long position suggests investment funds may still expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes. Cold weather has also prompted EU firms to draw down storage stocks heavily so far this month . Aggregate EU withdrawals averaged just under 3 TWh/d on 1-15 November, four times the 756 GWh/d average for that period in 2018-22 and sharply contrasting the 965 GWh/d of net injections across the bloc on 1-15 November 2023. Unlike investment funds, the two other major categories of Ice market participant — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 53TWh, leaving the latter with nearly 200TWh in net shorts, the highest since mid-September. Despite significant storage withdrawals, commercial undertakings ‘risk reduct' contracts — generally used for hedging — in the week to 15 November jumped by just under 30TWh to nearly 211TWh, the highest since 24 December 2021. Some of that increase may have been driven by a need to hedge the LNG cargoes diverted to Europe in recent weeks as European hub prices rose. A 9TWh increase in the net long position of commercial undertakings' other contracts slightly moderated the overall net short increase. The gross short and long positions of commercial undertakings totalled 1.95PWh, nearly twice as large as the investments funds' 646TWh and investment/credit firms' 421TWh combined. By Brendan A'Hearn Argus TTF prices 8-15 Nov €/MWh Dec-24 1Q25 Sum 25 Win 25 Cal 25 8-Nov 42.08 42.31 40.81 38.41 40.65 15-Nov 46.02 46.12 44.12 41.00 43.98 % change 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.7 8.2 Argus Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

24/11/21

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, climate think-tank E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

24/11/21

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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