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Australian resources sector, economy contracts in 2020

  • : Coal, Coking coal, Metals
  • 21/03/03

Australia's resources industry contracted last year for the first time since 2003 despite a further expansion in iron ore, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic affected coal mining and the oil and gas sector. This contributed to the first annual contraction in the Australian economy since 1991.

The Australian resources sector shrank by 0.9pc in 2020 compared with an expansion of 5.7pc in 2019, The 3.25pc contraction in the combined thermal and coking coal sector last year was the main contributor, according to the Australian national accounts, including gross domestic product (GDP), for the October-December quarter published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The contraction ended 16 years on economic expansion of Australia's resources sector, which has expanded with demand for energy and mineral bulk commodities from China.

But its share of the Australian economy increased to 10.36pc last year from an average of 10.11pc in 2019. It represented the highest economic share since the ABS started compiling sub-resource sector data since 1974.

The total Australian economy shrank by 0.2pc in 2020 from a rise of 2.2pc in 2019. This was the first decline since 1991 when it contracted by 0.9pc. But Australia's economy has risen above 3pc in July-September and October-December, underlining a firm economy recovery from the widespread Covid-19 lockdowns during April-June.

The resources sector has now gone five quarters without expansion, largely because of four consecutive fall in the economic value of the combined coal sector.

The economic contribution of the Australian coal mining sector fell last year as bad weather caused the temporary closure of mines and disrupted coal production. Global industrial shutdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic led to an overall reduced demand for coal, the ABS said.

Australian thermal coal exports dropped to a four-year low in 2020, partly because of Beijing's restrictions on coal imports from Australia. Combined exports of hard, pulverised coal injection grade and semi-soft coking coal from Australia in 2020 dropped to a seven-year low.

But Australian iron ore exports rose to another record high last year, fuelled by firm demand for steel production from China and supply disruptions in Brazil.

The iron ore sector also underpinned a rise to a three-year high in capital expenditure in Australia's resources sector last year.

Australia GDP, resources sector economic value (A$mn)
CoalOil and gasIron oreTotal resourcesGDPResources share of GDPGDP growth %Resources growth %
Oct-Dec '2011,12215,20216,33848,871491,5259.93.1-1.0
Jul-Sep '2011,56415,07316,52349,386476,61810.43.4-2.1
Oct-Dec '1912,69715,83415,99850,719497,10910.20.4-0.1
202046,86561,87265,527199,1641,924,71410.4-0.2-0.9
201948,87461,97663,376199,4551,972,80810.12.25.7

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25/01/10

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

Washington, 10 January (Argus) — US producers of low-carbon fuels can start claiming the "45Z" tax credit providing up to $1/USG for road use and $1.75/USG for aviation, following the US Treasury Department's release today of proposed guidance for the credit. The guidance includes proposed regulations and other tools to determine the eligibility of fuels for the 45Z tax credit, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace a suite of incentives for biofuels that expired at the end of last year. Biofuel producers have been clamoring for guidance from the US Treasury Department so they can start claiming the tax credit, which is available for fuels produced from 1 January 2025 through the end of 2027. "This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers," US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeymo said. "Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America." The creation of the 45Z tax credit has already prompted a change in US biofuels markets by shifting federal subsidies from blenders to producers. Because the value of tax credit increases for fuels with the lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it could encourage refiners to source more waste feedstocks such as used cooking oil, rather than conventional crop-based feedstocks. While the guidance is still just a proposal, taxpayers are able to "immediately" use the guidance to claim the 45Z tax credit, until Treasury issues additional guidance, an administration official said. The guidance on 45Z released today affirms that only the producer for the fuel is eligible to claim the credit, not blenders. To be eligible for the tax credit, the fuel must have a "practical or commercial fitness for use in a highway vehicle or aircraft" by itself or when blended into a mixture, Treasury said. Marine diesel and methanol suitable for highway or aircraft use are also eligible for 45Z, as is renewable natural gas that can be used as a transportation fuel. Treasury also released an "annual emissions rate table" offering providers a methodology for determining the lifecycle GHG of fuel. Treasury said a key emissions model from the US Department of Energy, called 45ZCF-GREET, used to calculate the value of the 45Z tax credit is anticipated to be released today, although industry officials said it may be delayed until next week. Treasury said it intends to propose regulations at "a future date" for calculating the GHG emissions benefits of "climate smart agriculture" practices for "cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks" for fuel. Those regulations could lower the calculated lifecycle emissions of fuel from those crop-based feedstocks and increase the relative 45Z tax credit. US biofuel producers said they are still awaiting key details on the 45Z tax credit, including the update to the GREET model. Among the outstanding questions is if the guidance released today provides "enough certainty to negotiate feedstock and fuel offtake agreements going forward", said the Clean Fuels America Alliance, an industry group that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries. It is unclear how president-elect Donald Trump intends to approach this proposed approach for the 45Z credit, which will be subject to a 90-day public comment period. Trump has promised to "rescind all unspent funds" from the Inflation Reduction Act. But outright repealing 45Z would leave biofuels producers and farmers without a subsidy they say is needed to sustain growth, after the expiration last year of a $1/USG blender tax credit and a tax credit of up to $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel. Biofuel and soybean groups were unsuccessful in a push last year to extend the expiring biofuel tax credits. The 45Z credit is likely to be debated in Congress this year, as Republicans consider repealing parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans have already asked for input on revisions to the 45Z credit, signaling they could modify the incentive. In a tightly divided Congress, farm-state lawmakers may hold enough leverage to ensure some type of biofuel incentive — and potentially one friendlier to agricultural producers than 45Z — survives. By Chris Knight and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US added 256,000 jobs in December


25/01/10
25/01/10

US added 256,000 jobs in December

Houston, 10 January (Argus) — The US added 256,000 nonfarm jobs in December, reflecting a robust labor market that may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Analysts had expected gains of about 160,000 jobs for December. The gains last month followed 212,000 more jobs in November, which were downwardly revised by 15,000, the Labor Department said Friday. Job gains in October were revised up by 7,000 to 43,000 jobs. The CME's FedWatch tool today showed 97.3pc probability Fed policy makers will keep the target lending rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5pc at the next Fed meeting at the end of the month, up from 93.6pc on Thursday. FedWatch shows nearly 60pc probability of no change through the May meeting, up from about 45pc Thursday. Unemployment edged down to 4.1pc in December from 4.2pc the prior month. Payroll employment gains averaged 186,000/month in 2024, for total gains of 2.2mn jobs. That was down from 251,000 jobs/month in 2023, for total gains of 3mn jobs that year. Health care added 46,000 jobs in December, retail trade added 43,000 jobs, government jobs rose by 33,000, social assistance increased by 23,000, and leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs. Construction added 8,000 jobs in December. Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs and mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing jobs grew by 9,600. Average hourly earnings grew by an annual 3.9pc following 4pc growth in November. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eurofer requests steel import duty, quota changes


25/01/09
25/01/09

Eurofer requests steel import duty, quota changes

London, 9 January (Argus) — The European steel association Eurofer has requested a reduction in the safeguard quota volumes and a higher duty on material above quotas amid the ongoing measures review, according to partner at law firm Van Bael & Bellis Yuriy Rudyuk. The reduction in the quota volumes is to reflect the decrease in steel demand in the bloc. Eurofer data shows apparent steel consumption has decreased nearly 15pc between 2017 and projected 2024 volumes. The association is looking for the safeguard tariff to increase to 32-41pc from the current 25pc, Rudyuk said. In addition, a 15pc cap to countries' access to "other countries'" quotas is being requested — this mechanism already applies to the hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rod quotas. This would be particularly impactful for the hot-dipped galvanised quotas, which have been typically dominated by Vietnam. The association would also like for more country specific quotas to be introduced, for no residual volumes to be carried over, and for no new developing countries exemptions. Currently, developing countries who are members of the WTO with small historical supply to the bloc are exempt from the safeguards. Eurofer did not answer a request for comment. The EC is currently inviting users and producers of steel to submit a questionnaire for the ongoing measures review by 10 January. By Lora Stoyanova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan Al: 1Q premium surges on tight supply


25/01/09
25/01/09

Japan Al: 1Q premium surges on tight supply

Shanghai, 9 January (Argus) — Japan's aluminium P1020 premiums for the first quarter of 2025 was settled at $228/t over cash London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. Premiums rose by $53/t from the previous quarter, reaching the highest level since Argus began the assessment in 2016. Initial offers were much higher at above $240/t in December, and only a small volume was concluded at $228/t to Japan. The significant increase was primarily driven by concerns over future supply in the seaborne market and escalating trade measures in the global market. Some suppliers either withdrew their production forecasts or planned to reduce output levels, fuelling concerns about tight supply. China announced the cancellation of the 13pc export tax rebate for fabricated aluminium products from 1 December 2024, which led to increased demand from rolling mills outside China. The premium in the US also rose because of potential higher import tariffs. But demand in Japan is still weak owing to slow domestic car production and construction activity. Japan's domestic car production continued its downward trajectory for most of 2024, with output recording a year-on-year fall for every month from January to November, except in May and July. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hyundai Motor plans $16.7bn Korean investment in 2025


25/01/09
25/01/09

Hyundai Motor plans $16.7bn Korean investment in 2025

Singapore, 9 January (Argus) — South Korean conglomerate Hyundai Motor, which owns major automotive brands Hyundai and Kia, plans to invest 24.3 trillion won ($16.7bn) in South Korea this year in what it said is its largest ever annual investment domestically. The domestic investment amount is W3.9 trillion or 19pc higher than in 2024, in a bid to "overcome the crisis" and "secure future growth engines" given global uncertainties through "continuous and stable" investment, said the group on 9 January. Around W12 trillion will go into its current investments and W11.5 trillion will go to research and development, while another W800bn will be injected into what it called "strategic investment". Hyundai Motor still plans to continue developing new electric vehicles (EVs) and accelerating the electrification transition, it said. A major investment in building an EV-only plant will be made this year, said the conglomerate. Kia's battery EV plant in Hwaseong that has a production capacity of 150,000 units/yr is still expected to be completed in the second half of 2025. Its EV plant in Ulsan is currently under construction and is expected to begin producing in the first half of 2026. Kia is expected to feature a full line-up of 15 EV models by 2027, while Hyundai is expected to have 21 EV models by 2030, said the group. The conglomerate sold around 4.14mn units of vehicles in 2024, down by 1.8pc on the year, mainly driven by lower domestic sales. Domestic sales totalled 705,010 units, down by 7.5pc on the year ,while its overseas sales were steady at almost 3.44mn units. A sales target of 4.17mn units has been set for 2025. South Korea's top battery maker LG Energy Solution (LGES), which supplies a significant number of batteries for Hyundai's and Kia's EV models, is expecting its 2024 operating profit and sales to see sharp falls, it said on 9 January. LGES earlier similarly indicated an uncertain outlook on the battery and EV market. LGES expects its 2024 operating profit to plunge by 73pc to W575.4bn and sales to fall by 24pc to W25.6 trillion. LGES expects to post its only quarterly loss of the year for October-December of W225.5bn, with sales expected to be down by 19pc on the year to W6.45 trillion during the quarter. LGES earlier has warned that significant cuts in capital expenditure from the firm during 2025 can be expected. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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