Suez Canal blockage could last 'days to weeks': Update

: Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
21/03/25

Adds list of ships awaiting transit

Dutch marine infrastructure company Royal Boskalis Westminster — one of the salvage firms called to the rescue of a giant container ship stuck in the Suez Canal — has warned that it could take "days to weeks to solve the issue".

The 400m-long Ever Given is still blocking the critical waterway, which links the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, after running aground in the canal's northbound lane at 07:40 local time (05:40 GMT) on 23 March. Royal Boskalis Westminster chief executive Peter Berdowski said it is too early to assess the exact timing but added that it is almost impossible to refloat the 199,489 deadweight tonne (dwt) ship because it is too heavy. The firm will try to get rid of as much weight on the ship as possible, which includes emptying oil tanks as well as removing the water aboard and potentially offloading some of the containers, Berdowski said.

Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) — the firm managing the Ever Given — said efforts to refloat the ship intensified today. Another attempt to free the vessel will be made later today, after one failed this morning. "Dredging operations to assist refloating the vessel continue. In addition to the dredgers already on site, a specialised suction dredger has arrived at the location," BSM said.

Earlier today, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) officially suspended navigation.

The canal is an important chokepoint for oil and gas movements.

Shipping agent Leth Agencies said that there are 156 vessels, including 21 crude and products tankers, awaiting transit through the canal. They are split between the Port Said anchorage at the north end of the canal, the Great Bitter Lake and the Suez anchorage at the south end (see table).

Navigation should resume when the Ever Given is refloated, SCA said, but it is unclear when this will be. Japanese shipowner Shoei Kisen, which owns the giant container ship, described the situation as "extremely difficult". The uncertainty around the reopening of the waterway could prompt some charterers to reroute their crude and oil products cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope, which would increase freight costs. But going around the Cape is significantly longer and charterers might opt to wait for the blockage to be cleared.

By Caroline Varin, Kevin Foster, Florence Schmit and Will Collins

Tanker/LPG Carriers awaiting Suez Canal transit							unit
Market	Vessel	Vessel Class	Status	Cargo	Direction	Anchorage	Origin
Dirty	Almi Odyssey	Suezmax	laden	fuel oil	Southbound	Port Said	Rotterdam
Dirty	Jag Leela	Aframax	laden	fuel oil	Southbound	Port Said	USG
Dirty	Maran Hercules	Suezmax	laden	crude	Southbound	Port Said	Libya
Dirty	Minerva Zenobia	Aframax	laden	fuel oil	Southbound	Port Said	Rotterdam
Dirty	Nordisc Cygnus	Suezmax	laden	crude	Southbound	Port Said	CPC
Dirty	Sonangol Rangel	Suezmax	laden	crude	Southbound	Port Said	CPC
Clean	Spetses Lady	LR2	laden	naphtha	Southbound	Port Said	Novorossiysk
Clean	Bowfin	LR1	laden	naphtha	Southbound	Port Said	Tuapse
Dirty	Tilos I	Suezmax	laden	crude	Southbound	Port Said	Libya
LPG	Eco Ice	SGC	laden	Olefin/chemical	Southbound	Great Bitter Lake	Antwerp
LPG	Clipper Sun	VLGC	laden	propane	Southbound	Great Bitter Lake	Beaumont
LPG	Gas Alkhaleej	VLGC	laden	propane	Southbound	Great Bitter Lake	Texas
LPG	Queen Isabella	SGC	ballast		Southbound	Great Bitter Lake	Sagunto
LPG	Jotagas	SGC	laden	Olefin/chemical	Southbound	Great Bitter Lake	Antwerp
Dirty	Emerald	MR	laden	fuel oil	Southbound	Great Bitter Lake	Novorossiysk
Dirty	Maran Cassiopeia	Suezmax	ballast		Northbound	Suez	Fujairah
Dirty	Ithaki Warrior	Suezmax	laden	crude	Northbound	Suez	Ras Tanura
Dirty	Aliakmon	Panamax	ballast		Northbound	Suez	Suez STS
Dirty	Elandra Falcon	Suezmax	laden	crude	Northbound	Suez	Basrah Oil Terminal
Dirty	New Discovery	Suezmax	laden	crude (58.2kt)	Northbound	Suez	Unclear
Dirty	Seadancer	Suezmax	ballast		Northbound	Suez	New Mangalore
Dirty	Myrtos	Aframax	ballast		Northbound	Suez	Sikka
LPG	Bw Liberty	VLGC	laden	Butane/propane (14kt)	Northbound	Suez	Suez STS
LPG	Stella Kosan	SGC	ballast		Northbound	Suez	Cuddalore
Clean	Energy Centurion	LR1	laden	alkyalte	Northbound	Suez	Sikka
Clean	Sti Broadway	LR2	laden	Diesel/gasoil	Northbound	Suez	Yanbu
Clean	Pacific A Dorodchi	LR2	laden	naphtha/diesel/gasoil	Northbound	Suez	Sohar
Clean	Maersk Aegean	Handysize	laden	fuel oil	Northbound	Suez	Fujairah
Clean	Nautical Deborah	LR1	laden	jet/kerosine	Northbound	Suez	Sikka
Clean	Al Soor Ii	LR1	laden	Diesel/gasoil	Northbound	Suez	Mina Abdulla
Leth Agencies/Vortexa

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25/05/03

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

25/05/03

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cliffs to idle 3 US steel mills this summer

25/05/02

Cliffs to idle 3 US steel mills this summer

Houston, 2 May (Argus) — Integrated steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs will indefinitely idle its Conshohocken, Riverdale, and Steelton steel mills this summer in response to weak demand for the products produced at the mills. The idlings will impact about 950 workers spread across the 700,000 short ton (st)/yr Riverdale high-carbon coil mill in Illinois, the 500,000st/yr Conshohocken specialty plate mill in Pennsylvania and the 300,000st/yr Steelton, Pennsylvania railroad rail mill, a company spokesperson told Argus . Cliffs said the moves are temporary and will begin at the end of the required 60-day WARN notice periods in their respective states — on or about 30 June. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

25/05/02

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

Mexico City, 2 May (Argus) — Mexico's push to raise domestic gas output to 5 Bcf/d by 2030 depends on a new shared participation model designed to attract private investment, with four strategic gas fields prioritized as tenders begin. State-owned Pemex this week released the detailed guidelines for the mixed production scheme, first introduced in February. The model guarantees Pemex at least a 40pc share of production and gives the company wide discretion to set contract terms and choose the bidding process — including no-bid awards. But interest in the new contracts is expected to center on Mexican firms with close ties to President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, such as Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso, according to market sources. "With these guidelines, Pemex can finally pick and choose who they want, how they want," said Miriam Grunstein, a former adviser to energy regulator CRE and senior partner at Brilliant Energy Consulting. "The downside is they are likely to turn to Mexican firms that lack the technical experience for complex projects, rather than international companies with the know-how for deep-water or unconventional plays," Grunstein said. "This scheme isn't made for companies like BHP, Total, or Eni," added Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Cenagas and co-partner at consultancy Gadex. "Pemex doesn't want operators as partners. Though it is perfect for Carso." A relative newcomer to the upstream sector, Carso is one of the government's most important contractors for infrastructure projects and stands to gain on future business whether or not the upstream partnerships succeed. Prud'homme doubts international majors looking for a one-off deal would be willing to take on the heavily regulated, high-risk projects when the maximum stake is 60pc. "If you fail, Pemex will not share the loss," said Prud'homme. "If you succeed, Pemex decides how much to share." Pemex management said it plans to launch 17 projects under the new scheme this year. It remains unclear how many of these will focus on gas development. Still, gas is a core focus. Pemex's 2025–2030 business plan allocates Ps238bn (US$12.1bn) to gas projects in pursuit of the 5 Bcf/d goal. Four key fields — Burgos, Quesqui, Ixachi and Bakte — are expected to provide 54pc of total projected output. Carso is already active, partnering with Pemex on the complex deep-water Lakach gas project, which is now expected to migrate from a service contract to the new mixed contract model. Slim began renegotiations in February after the model was announced. Carso has also expanded upstream, buying into the oil-rich Zama project in December. In March, Sheinbaum confirmed the government is in talks with Carso to partner on Ixachi. Turning the tide Still, gas output continues to decline. An analysis by Mexican think tank IMCO found that Pemex and its farmout partners this year posted their lowest first-quarter gas production in 15 years. In the first quarter, Pemex produced 4.408 Bcf/d of gas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024 and 12pc lower compared with the same quarter 2023. The 367 MMcf/d annual decline marks the steepest first-quarter drop since 2018, when output fell by 536 MMcf/d year over year. On the positive side, Pemex's natural gas production in March ticked 0.3pc higher from the previous month to 4.39 Bcf/d – marking the second consecutive month of increases after February output was up 1.3pc from January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

25/05/02

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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