Pembina LPG terminal expects first load this month

: LPG
21/04/08

Pembina expects its 25,000 b/d Prince Rupert export terminal on Watson Island in British Columbia to begin operations later this month.

Vessel tracking from analytics firm Vortexa showed the Handysize carrier Pertusola moored near Prince Rupert on 7 April. Pembina said it will provide an update on the status of its terminal project, the second export terminal on Canada's west coast, once it is in service, but anticipates the arrival of the first ship this month.

The $250mn export terminal was originally slated to be in service in the first quarter of 2021, according to the Calgary-based company's most recent investor material. Last year Pembina deferred a planned expansion of the new facility.

Additional export capacity out of western Canada comes as AltaGas' 40,000 b/d refrigerated export facility, the Ridley Island propane export terminal, or Ripet, ramped up loadings to 50,600 b/d in December and January to meet strong demand for propane in Asia, particularly Japan.

Delays along the Panama Canal this winter bolstered delivered propane prices in Asia and led to greater demand for Canadian LPG, given the shorter, 10-day voyage versus the US Gulf coast. Approximately 70pc of Ripet's 2021 export volumes are hedged through either long-term tolling agreements or financial hedges relative to the Far East Index.

By Amy Strahan and Yulia Golub

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25/04/15

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: LGE still pushing EU for RLG concessions

25/04/02

Q&A: LGE still pushing EU for RLG concessions

London, 2 April (Argus) — European LPG association Liquid Gas Europe (LGE) continues to push to secure EU and member state support for renewable liquid gases (RLG) such as bioLPG and renewable DME (rDME) while protecting customers of LPG and autogas from policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels. Argus' Dafydd ab Iago and Matt Scotland spoke to LGE general manager Ewa Abramiuk-Lete: What is the EU's latest position on CO2-neutral fuels in road transport? The European Commission's 2023 regulation proposes a framework for registering vehicles after 2035 that operate solely on CO2-neutral fuels in accordance with EU law and climate neutrality objectives. Since then, the commission has been tasked with developing a definition of what CO2-neutral fuels are, but no official information has been released yet. Meanwhile, as part of the broader fuels industry, we've collaborated in a technical group to formulate a definition that encompasses all renewable fuels in line with the EU's renewable energy directive [RED III]. The group's report frequently makes reference to renewable LPG and DME. But will the commission consider anything other than e-fuels? Certain EU commissioners and commission president Ursula von der Leyen have emphasised the need for technological neutrality when revising CO2 standards for cars. The devil is in the details. At this point, there is talk, but we've yet to see any concrete proposals or indications from the commission. We are closely monitoring the current developments in the commission, primarily to determine whether the concept of technological neutrality is being practically implemented and if there is potential for more than just e-fuels and hydrogen. But the push for this concept should originate from member states. Failing to broaden the scope would be a missed opportunity to support a broader range of cost-effective, immediately deployable renewable solutions like RLGs and rDME. When could we find out what fuels are included? A decision may come later this year. Any initiative to reopen or amend EU legislation must come from the commission. Recent intense discussions in the European Parliament about the state of the automotive sector, as well as growing pressure from member states, could be enough to persuade the commission to act. What has been the reaction to the EU's clean industrial deal and state aid rules? We are still reviewing the new state aid proposals. At first glance, RLGs seem to be included. The commission indicates that all fuels compliant with [RED III] — such as bioLPG, biomethane and rDME — are eligible for support. Fossil fuels are generally excluded, with limited exceptions for natural gas under strict conditions. The justification for this is that natural gas is deemed cleaner than more polluting alternatives — an argument that equally applies to LPG. In which direction is the EU discussion on energy taxation heading? The European Council is still finalising the energy taxation directive. The matter lies with EU member states, which must vote unanimously on energy taxation. Progress is being made slowly. The current Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU will need to determine the next steps on critical issues before a consensus can be reached. For LPG, what is at stake is whether RLGs are fairly treated under the new tax framework — and whether the directive allows for differentiation between renewable and conventional fuels, and between business and non-business uses. How will the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD) affect LPG? A lot is quite technical, but also vital for the sector. One key issue is the inconsistent implementation of the EPBD across EU member states. Guidance documents provide definitions of what constitutes a fossil fuel boiler, which is essential as several member states are preparing to phase out such boilers between 2035 and 2040. A significant question [is whether there will be] recognition of renewable-ready or renewable-compatible boilers, particularly those using bioLPG or rDME. We are analysing how member states are interpreting and implementing these provisions. In Italy, there is strong support for the continued use of bioLPG in heating, but this level of recognition varies significantly between member states. What is the latest on the EU's proposed restrictions on PFAS ? The European Chemicals Agency is conducting a socio-economic assessment as part of the EU's proposed restriction on PFAS under Reach, covering many industrial uses. In the LPG sector, PFAS — particularly fluoropolymers such as PTFE — play a critical role in cylinders, tanks and valves. These materials are essential for preventing leaks in systems that store and transport flammable gases. Some alternatives are being tested — including PFAS-free sealing techniques used by certain companies in Spain — but they are not yet widely adopted or validated across the EU. Promising developments are being made but require further testing to meet safety standards. Your recent RLG Outlook models European RLG output reaching 27.4mn t/yr by 2050 under the policy conditions. Is that not too optimistic given limited progress in the past two years and the dissolution of rDME joint venture Dimeta? While the dissolution of Dimeta was a setback, it does not change the long-term outlook for rDME. Our 2050 modelling shows that Europe could produce up to 27.4mn t/yr of renewable LPG equivalent, of which up to 40pc could come from rDME. The industry continues to see strong potential in rDME, and essential work is progressing on technical standardisation, and safety and blending rules. Our analysis also indicates that sustainable feedstocks are sufficient to fulfil this production potential. Out of 22 production pathways, we examined nine in detail based on a multi-criteria analysis. Only two are fully commercialised at present. This is why we are advocating for co-ordinated policy action — to accelerate commercialisation and mitigate investment risks. Will rDME be a core focus at LGE's Congress in Katowice over 20-22 May? RDME will be one of many key topics at the congress. The event will take place in Poland, drawing strong participation from central and eastern European markets, as well as from further afield, with delegates expected from the US, South America, Africa, Australia and Asia. [LGE] plans to present the RLG Outlook and explore opportunities for scaling up RLG production. In addition, sessions will focus on the role of LPG in agriculture, transport and heating — all critical sectors for the energy transition. Central Europe and Poland will be a core point of discussion, given its significant autogas market and ongoing energy security challenges. We will also address the impact of Russian sanctions on the Polish LPG market, with high-level representatives from the Polish presidency and industry ministry in attendance. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

25/04/01

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US propane prices remain firm as stocks fall again

25/04/01

US propane prices remain firm as stocks fall again

Inventories at a three-year low and strong demand for exports supported propane prices this month, writes Joseph Barbour Houston, 1 April (Argus) — US Gulf coast Mont Belvieu propane prices remained elevated relative to crude last month as domestic inventories declined to their lowest since 2022. Mont Belvieu LST propane prices averaged 54.3pc of Nymex WTI crude in March, up by 11.4 percentage points from a year earlierand 4.4 percentage points higher than the five-year March average. US propane stocks typically start to build from March as seasonal heating demand abates — the first stockbuild of the year took place in the second or third week of March in 2021-24, EIA data show. And support for prices from expectations of cold weather had largely subsided by early March, market participants said, with outlooks from the US' National Weather Service forecasting warmer than average weather for the first half of March. But US propane inventories fell for a 23rd consecutive week over the seven days to 21 March, dropping to 43.2mn bl (3.48mn t), their lowest since 29 April 2022, EIA data show. The latest stockdraw was largely because of stronger US exports, which offset weaker domestic demand. Propane exports averaged 1.91mn b/d (4.7mn t/month) in March, up from 1.83mn b/d in February, while domestic sales fell to 1.21mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d. Propane's value relative to crude reached a three-year high of 59.2pc by the end of February as strong heating demand tightened supply in the first half of the month and market participants appeared to cover short positions as it neared its end. Fading interest in prompt supply in March led prices to largely move in lockstep with crude until mid-month, but prices remained strong on tight supply and rose later in the month as buyers returned, peaking at 94.75¢/USG, or 57.6pc of Nymex WTI crude, on 24 March. As a result, propane will enter the summer off-season from its strongest quarter relative to crude in three years. US propane exports could remain high in April on strong petrochemical demand in China given rising production margins and delayed purchases from earlier uncertainty regarding US tariffs. But prices historically ease during the off-season and prompt Mont Belvieu backwardation suggests they could begin to fall soon. Mont Belvieu propane price, US propane stocks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Carney backs Canadian fossil fuel sector

25/04/01

Carney backs Canadian fossil fuel sector

The prime minister's focus is on Canada becoming a superpower in conventional and clean energy, writes Yulia Golub Calgary, 1 April (Argus) — Canadians will vote for a new federal government on 28 April after recently assumed prime minister Mark Carney triggered an election on 23 March. The new leader has moved ahead in the polls and is running on more favourable policies for the country's fossil fuel industry, having already axed a carbon tax on the sector. Carney, who was sworn into office on 14 March after former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, will face off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives were widely expected to rout the Liberals and form the next government until a remarkable rebound in polling by the Liberals over the past two months, which has been attributed to the replacement of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau as well as rising anti-US sentiment linked to US president Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and "51st state" rhetoric. Carney has removed a carbon tax on fossil fuels from 1 April, ending a contentious federal policy among the electorate. Abolishing the carbon tax has been one of Poilievre's campaign pillars. Canada will become a superpower in "both conventional and clean energies", says Carney, who has mentioned the need for more pipelines, trade corridors and energy infrastructure to diversify Canada's energy exports away from the US . The shift in energy policy priorities under the prime minister makes him more closely aligned with the Conservatives. Carney's strong opposition to the Trump administration is boosting his appeal, while Poilievre is increasingly being seen as having similarities to Trump. "We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump's unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty," Carney said on 23 March when he announced the election. Speaking four days later after Trump said a new 25pc tax on imported vehicles and vehicle parts would be "permanent", the prime minister declared the "old relationship we had with the US... is over". Canada imposed retaliatory 25pc tariffs on select US goods from 4 February, subsequently delayed until 4 March, and says it plans to introduce additional tariffs if Trump follows through with his pledge to slap even higher taxes on the US' trading partners from 2 April. The two leaders held their first call on 28 March, in which they agreed to negotiate new economic and security agreements after the 28 April election. "We had a very, very good talk," Trump said. The US' 10pc tariff on Canadian energy imports remains in place. Canada's largest oil and gas firms have asked the government to declare an "energy crisis" to expedite new pipelines, ports and LNG facilities, while bolstering trade relationships beyond the US, streamlining regulation and reducing project approval timelines. Propane pain Propane costs for consumers in Canada and the US are expected to rise as a result of the 10pc tariff, panellists at the Canada Clean Fuels Summit said on 25 March. "Even if the tariffs are eventually lifted, there is no guarantee added costs will disappear," the Canadian Propane Association's vice-president of government relations, Katie Kachur, said. The tariffs could cost propane suppliers up to $200mn/yr, she said. Canada is exporting more propane by sea to Asia but most — about 62pc in 2024, customs data show — heads to the US, Kachur said. Canadian LPG term contract prices for the 2025-26 contract year starting on 1 April are falling owing to uncertainty over the 10pc tariff and forecasts for rising domestic production. Producers and buyers usually finalise deals early in the year but negotiations this year are yet to be concluded. Prices for propane from western Canada's Edmonton hub are being discussed at 23-25¢/USG ($120-130.50/t) discounts to equivalent prices at the US midcontinent hub of Conway, compared with 19-25¢/USG discounts for 2024-25. Term contracts for Edmonton butane are being discussed at 39-41pc of the calendar month average of Nymex WTI crude, down from 40-44pc. Canada's Pacific coast LPG terminals Canada LPG exports by destination Canada LPG exports by freight type Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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