China gas use to rise 10pc in 2021: Sinopec, PetroChina

: Natural gas
21/05/03

China's state-controlled energy firms are expecting domestic gas demand growth to accelerate this year, as the economy recovers and consumption of the fuel is boosted by the country's transition to lower-carbon energy sources.

China's apparent gas demand is likely to reach 350bn-356bn m³ this year, up by around 9-10pc from 2020, Hou Chuangye, vice president of top producer PetroChina's gas sales unit said this week.

Hou sees higher demand from the gas-fired power sector as a back-up for base-load renewables output, which will lead to an increase in installed gas-fired capacity as China works towards meeting its peak emissions goals.

PetroChina will co-operate more closely with the country's major state-owned electricity generators to boost utilisation of gas-fired power plants, he said.

State-controlled Sinopec forecasts that China's gas demand will increase to 350bn-360bn m³ this year, 9-12pc higher than the company's estimate of consumption in 2020, officials from the company's gas sales unit said. The growth will be driven by demand from the gas-fired power and industrial sectors.

China's apparent gas consumption was 326.2bn m³ last year, up by 7.2pc from 2019, according to official figures from the national bureau of statistics (NBS). Consumption picked up after taking a hit from the country's Covid-19 outbreak in the first quarter.

Domestic gas output was 192.5bn m³ last year, up by 9.8pc, while imports rose by 5.3pc to 101.66mn t or 140.3bn m³.

China's top energy planning authority the NEA has set a domestic gas production target of 202.5bn m³, which would be up by 5.2pc on 2020. PetroChina's state-owned parent company CNPC is planning to produce 133.8bn m³ from its domestic fields this year and has set a preliminary import target of 70bn m³. Sinopec is aiming to produce 34bn m³ of gas and import 17.4mn t of LNG this year.

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24/11/25

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

Montevideo, 25 November (Argus) — The left-wing opposition Frente Amplio will return to power in Uruguay after winning a hard-fought run-off election on 24 November. Yamandu Orsi, former mayor of the Canalones department, was elected president with close to 51pc of valid votes. He defeated Alvaro Delgado, of the ruling Partido Nacional. The Frente will control the senate, but will have a minority in the lower chamber. It last governed from 2015-2020. Orsi will take office on 1 March in one of Latin America's most stable economies, with the World Bank forecasting growth at 3.2pc for this year, much higher than the 1.9pc regional average. He will also inherit a country that has been making strides to implement a second energy transition geared toward continued decarbonization and new technologies, such as SAF and low-carbon hydrogen. He will also have to decide on future oil and natural gas exploration. Uruguay does not produce oil or gas, but has hopes that its offshore mimics that of Nambia, because of similar geology. TotalEnergies has made a major find there. The Frente's government plan states that it "will deepen the energy transition, focusing on the use of renewable energy, and decarbonization of the economy and transportation … gradually regulating so that public and cargo transportation can operate with hydrogen." On to hydrogen Uruguay is already the regional leader with renewable energy, with renewables covering 100pc of power demand on 24 November, according to the state-run power company, UTE. Wind accounted for 49pc, hydro 35pc, biomass 10pc and solar 6pc. Orsi will need to make decisions regarding high-profile projects for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a push by the state-run Ancap to get private companies to ramp up oil and gas exploration on seven offshore blocks. The industry, energy and mining ministry lists four planned low-carbon hydrogen projects, including one between Chile's HIF and Ancap subsidiary Alur that would have a 1GW electrolyzer. Germany's Enertrag is working on an e-methanol project with a 150MW electrolyzer, while two Uruguayan groups are working on small projects with 2MW and 5MW electrolyzers, respectively. The Orsi government will also need to decide if it continues with Ancap's planned bidding process for four offshore blocks, each between 600-800km² (232-309 mi²), to generate up to 3.2GW of wind power to produce 200,000 t/yr of green hydrogen on floating platforms. The Frente has been noncommittal about the future of seven offshore oil and gas blocks, including three held by Shell, two by the UK's Challenger — which recently farmed in Chevron — and one each by Argentina's state-owned YPF and US-based APA Corporation. The Frente's government plan states that "a national dialogue will be called to analyze the impacts and alternatives to exploration and extraction of fossil fuels." By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback

24/11/25

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback

New York, 25 November (Argus) — The biggest obstacle standing in the way of president-elect Donald Trump's campaign pledge to unleash the full force of the nation's oil potential could end up being some of his biggest cheerleaders in the industry. Top energy executives are broadly supportive of Trump's plans to slash red tape and adopt pro-fossil fuel policies, such as opening up more federal land to drilling and speeding up the permitting process for oil and gas projects. But his plea for producers to pump flat-out in order to help bring down energy costs might quickly bump up against reality. The industry is sitting tight against an uncertain macro-economic backdrop, with crude prices on the back foot and a global oil market that is forecast to be in surplus next year. Shale bosses that learnt the hard way the lessons of prior boom-and-bust cycles are in no hurry to repeat the mistakes of the past. "It's kind of hard to look at a world that has 4mn-6mn b/d of surplus capacity on the sidelines and try to think we can grow effectively into that," US independent Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice says. For the time being, shareholders are in the driving seat and generating cash flow remains the rallying cry. "We're going to just stay conservative and let volume be the output of cash flow generation," Stice says, summing up the mood of many of his peers. As a result, Trump might have his work cut out for him trying to persuade US producers to open up the floodgates. Measures such as rolling back environmental regulations will only help at the margin. One difference from Trump's first term is that the industry is emerging from a frantic round of consolidation that has resulted in ownership of vast tracts of the shale patch falling into the hands of fewer but larger public operators, for whom capital discipline is sacrosanct. Last year's 1mn b/d boost to overall US crude production took market watchers by surprise, but the rate of growth is slowing even as output continues to hit new record highs. ExxonMobil and Chevron are deploying their vast scale and technology prowess to ramp up output from the Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, but the rest of the industry is playing it steady. Cycle path For the most part, public companies were hesitant to set out their stalls for 2025 during recent third-quarter earnings calls. Those that have outlined tentative plans indicate a desire to maintain the status quo, leading to expectations for little or minimal growth. "Nearly every company cited continued improvements in cycle times that are allowing for more capital-efficient programmes," bank Raymond James analyst John Freeman says. "Efficiency gains show no signs yet of ending." US independent EOG Resources forecasts another year of slower US liquids growth on the back of a lower rig count and dwindling inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells. "The rig count really hasn't moved in just about a year now," chief executive Ezra Yacob says. "That's really the biggest thing that's informing our expectation for slightly less growth year over year in the US." In the immediate future, weaker oil prices might translate into slower growth for the Permian, delaying the inevitable peak in overall US crude production, producer Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub says. But the top-performing US basin will continue to lead the way further out while other basins lose their edge. In a fast-maturing shale sector where the priority is to lower costs and maximise returns, that suggests a flat production growth profile going forward. "We see no change to the intermediate-term drilling path for oil set by the fundamentals," bank Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opinion: Bridging the divide

24/11/22

Opinion: Bridging the divide

Cop summits put the gap between developed and developing countries in stark relief and demand a strong moderator Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The UN's Cop climate summits always involve a high-stakes test of multilateralism. But the Cop 29 gathering that is crawling towards its conclusion in Baku this week has pushed this concept to its limit. The summit faced serious challenges even before it kicked off. Azerbaijan took on the presidency relatively late in the day and the country's president, Ilham Aliyev, irritated some delegates with an opening speech that lauded oil and gas as a "gift from God" and railed against "western fake news". His comments on European nations' Pacific island territories prompted France's energy minister to boycott the talks, while the Cop chief executive was caught on film trying to facilitate fossil fuel deals. And the broader geopolitical background for the gathering was, of course, "grim", as EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra noted, even before delegates tackled the summit's key discussion topic — money. At the heart of this year's Cop is the need to agree a new climate finance goal — a hugely divisive subject at the best of times. Discussions start with countries' wealth, take into account historical responsibility for emissions, and often end up with accusations of neocolonialism and calls for reparations. Figuring out who pays for what is crucial to advancing any kind of meaningful energy transition — and is hence a regular Cop sticking point. Developing countries have long argued that they are not able to decarbonise or implement energy transition plans without adequate financing, and they are prepared to hold other issues hostage to achieve this. Equally, developed countries will not budge on finance until stronger emissions cuts are pledged. Cop summits throw the developed/developing world divide into stark relief as well as shine an unforgiving light on weak management and oversight of Cop debate — an event where every country has an equal vote and needs a strong moderator to bridge that deepening developed and developing world division. This year's summit falls between two much more heavily-hyped Cops, and next year's host Brazil has already taken centre stage, boosted by also holding the G20 presidency. Cop 29 president Mukhtar Babayev asked Brazil and 2021 host the UK to help ensure a balanced outcome, while a strong focus on climate at this week's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro lent some support to discussions in Baku. More challenges loom. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to pull the US — the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter — out of the UN Paris Agreement for a second time, and there are fears that fellow G20 member Argentina might quit too. But the Cop process has dealt with some of these challenges before — it is built to withstand a term or two of an unsympathetic world leader, and any exits from the Paris accord could galvanise others to step up their policy commitments, several delegates in Baku suggest. And the issue overshadowing it all — and the reason nearly 200 countries still turn up each year — is not going away. The world has already warmed by around 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels and this year is set to smash last year's record as the hottest. Leaders from both developed and developing countries spoke of catastrophic floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms. It has become a truism, but when it comes to the tricky issue of money, the only thing more daunting than the cost of tackling climate change is the cost of ignoring it. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

24/11/21

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost a third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

24/11/21

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

London, 21 November (Argus) — Investment funds' net long TTF position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) jumped to a new all-time high earlier this month, outstripping the previous record in late August. The latest weekly data from Ice show investment funds' net long TTF position shot up to a new record at just under 273TWh by 15 November, topping the previous all-time high of roughly 268TWh in the week ending 30 August , revised data show. After peaking in August, the position dropped to 192TWh on 20 September, and held broadly stable before jumping 33.6TWh in the week ending 25 October . TTF prices rose in the following two weeks, but funds trimmed their net long position to around 226TWh on 8 November ( see graph ). But in the most recent week of data from Ice, investment funds' net long position shot up to just under 273TWh by 15 November, a new record high. Over the same period of 8-15 November, The Argus TTF front-month contract rose by more than 9pc, and there were similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 8pc ( see table ). Significant price volatility in recent trading sessions has also prompted Ice to increase margin rates by around 20pc on all contracts out to September 2025 , with smaller increases further down the curve. Austrian incumbent OMV announced this week Russia's Gazprom would halt its contractual supply from 16 November , prompting sizeable day-on-day price moves across Europe and possibly encouraging investment funds to go longer and capitalise on the volatility. But central European flows have changed only slightly since then, with roughly the same amount of Russian gas entering the region. Higher TTF prices have also caused LNG diversions from Asia to Europe in recent days, which reached double digits on 19 November . Such a large net long position suggests investment funds may still expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes. Cold weather has also prompted EU firms to draw down storage stocks heavily so far this month . Aggregate EU withdrawals averaged just under 3 TWh/d on 1-15 November, four times the 756 GWh/d average for that period in 2018-22 and sharply contrasting the 965 GWh/d of net injections across the bloc on 1-15 November 2023. Unlike investment funds, the two other major categories of Ice market participant — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 53TWh, leaving the latter with nearly 200TWh in net shorts, the highest since mid-September. Despite significant storage withdrawals, commercial undertakings ‘risk reduct' contracts — generally used for hedging — in the week to 15 November jumped by just under 30TWh to nearly 211TWh, the highest since 24 December 2021. Some of that increase may have been driven by a need to hedge the LNG cargoes diverted to Europe in recent weeks as European hub prices rose. A 9TWh increase in the net long position of commercial undertakings' other contracts slightly moderated the overall net short increase. The gross short and long positions of commercial undertakings totalled 1.95PWh, nearly twice as large as the investments funds' 646TWh and investment/credit firms' 421TWh combined. By Brendan A'Hearn Argus TTF prices 8-15 Nov €/MWh Dec-24 1Q25 Sum 25 Win 25 Cal 25 8-Nov 42.08 42.31 40.81 38.41 40.65 15-Nov 46.02 46.12 44.12 41.00 43.98 % change 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.7 8.2 Argus Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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