Australia sees stronger coking coal exports

: Coking coal
21/06/28

Seaborne metallurgical coal supply chains have largely reorganised in response to Beijing's ban on Australian coal imports, paving the way for increasing Australian exports of coking coal over the next two years, according to the Australian government's Office of the Chief Economist (OCE).

Australian metallurgical coal exports will increase from 172mn t in 2020 to 189mn t in 2023, according to the OCE's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) released today. At the same time prices will increase, with the OCE revising up its average spot price to $160/t fob Australia for hard coking coal for 2022 from its March forecast of $142/t.

The OCE also upgraded its outlook for global metallurgical coal trade, largely because of increased imports by China supplied by stronger-than-previously-expected exports from North America and Mongolia.

As industrial production recovers outside of China, demand for metallurgical coal is likely to rebalance, narrowing the price differential between Australian exports and Chinese imports and adding revenue for Australian coal mining firms, the OCE said in its latest REQ. Demand is set to increase in India once the latest Covid-19 outbreak is controlled, as well as in Japan, South Korea and Europe over the next two and a half years, it added.

China is paying a premium to monopolise non-Australian supplies of metallurgical coal, but there may be limited capacity for Chinese steelmakers to continue to do so given restrictions on steel sales, according to the REQ. This is a risk to non-Australian metallurgical coal prices, with Chinese imports expected to start edging down in the second half of this year.

China has locked in supplies from Mongolia by upgrading rail connections, with higher-cost supplies from North America and Russia likely to be the first to be affected by any drop in Chinese imports. But China has run down stockpiles built up in early 2020 and may be required to import to replenish these, the June REQ said.

The OCE's 2021 average spot hard coking coal price forecast of $133/t fob Australia is higher than the premium hard coking coal price that Argus has assessed at around $129/t in the year to date for 2021, implying that the OCE expects stronger prices in the second half of the year. Argus last assessed the premium hard low-vol coking coal price at $182.50/t fob Australia on 25 June, up from a high of $107.75/t on 3 May.

By Jo Clarke

Australian government's coking coal forecasts				mn t
	2020	2021 f	2022 f	2023 f

World trade	298.5	314.8	324.4	336.8
Exports
Australia	171.8	175.7	183.4	189.5
United States	36.8	37	31	29
Canada	32.1	35	36	36
Russia	22.4	24	24	32.3
Mongolia	23.9	30	33	33
Imports
China	75.5	85.2	84.8	84.3
India	54.7	56.0	64.5	73.0
Japan	42	44	45	45
European Union	35	39	37.8	36.5
South Korea	33	32	31	33
Prices
Spot price expectation June update (US$/t)*	128	143	160	149
Spot price expectation March forecast (US$/t)*	128	133	142	148
Source: OCE
f = forecast, *real in 2021 US$

Metallurgical coal prices $/t

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24/12/19

Strikes at Australian commodity ports to continue

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — Workers at major commodity ports across Australia will strike next week, in response to stalling negotiations with port operators. Queensland In northern Queensland, unions representing almost 200 workers have notified the Gladstone Ports (GPC) that they plan to launch work stoppages at the LNG and coal hub next week, a source told Argus. The strike actions follow an earlier day-long work stoppage involving over 100 workers at the port that began earlier this week. The dispute between GPC and its workers is centred around wage and rostering proposals. GPC and unions representing its workers have not scheduled any further bargaining meetings, multiple sources have told Argus . Gladstone's ship queue has exceeded 30 ships multiple times since work stoppages began on 17 December. This compared with a queue of 48 ships in December 2023, after Cyclone Jasper forced three other north Queensland ports to turn vessels away for four days. To the south of Gladstone, 100 workers at the Qube-operated Port of Brisbane will also stop working between 23-27 December, according to maritime logistics firm GAC. The stoppage announcement follows a day-long strike at multiple Qube ports , which began on 16 December. Before the strike began, a Qube representative warned that strikes at its ports would "inevitably [cause] disruption to supply chains for key commodities like fertiliser, grain, and steel." The Port of Brisbane is a major oil and meat port. New South Wales Along Australia's eastern coast, workers at Qube's major coal, grain, and fertiliser port in Port Kembla are planning to strike for a longer period of time than their colleagues in other parts of the country. GAC has reported that workers will launch 13 rolling work stoppages at the port between 20 December and 3 January. There are 141 members of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) participated in a strike authorisation vote at the site in early September, and have been engaged in industrial actions since then. Port Kembla also faced a day-long work stoppage earlier this week. Northern Territory Union members in Darwin are planning to not work for 1½ day beginning on 23 December. Like the Port of Brisbane, Darwin tends to handle livestock and oil products. But only 37 workers were eligible to participate in a successful mid-September union ballot authorising work stoppages at the port. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

24/12/18

Viewpoint: More US met coal consolidation ahead

London, 18 December (Argus) — Expectations that weak seaborne coking coal prices in the last quarter of 2024 will carry over to 2025 in the face of low steel prices is pointing to further consolidation among US coking coal producers. Consol Energy and Arch Resources set up the most significant merger of 2024 for the US market , with the merged company expected to generate $110mn-140mn of cost savings and "operational synergies" within 6-18 months of the close of the transaction. But continuing cost pressures will likely lead to closures of smaller high-cost mines, not uncommon in the past when US coking coal prices have reached a down cycle. The fob Australia premium low volatile (PLV) coking coal price fell from this summer's high of $260/t in early July to average $203.46/t from the start of October, translating to prices that are below cost for many US producers. In recent years, price volatility and lack of liquidity, particularly in the Atlantic market, has meant many buyers have chosen to buy at index-linked prices, often with fob Australia indexes. The fob US east coast price has averaged $192.84/t for the current quarter, while the high volatile A fob Hampton Road price has averaged $186.47/t in the same period, prices cited by many US producers at near or even below cost after taking into consideration rail and port handling charges. Lower cost longwall miners like Alpha Met Resources reported an average sale cost of $114.27/short ton ($125.96/t) in the third quarter for metallurgical coal, Arch Resources reported $93.81/st for the same and Warrior Met Coal indicated $120.21/st. But others such as Corsa are in clear loss-making territory at $169/st. After freight and handling charges, many of these producers will have fob equivalent costs closer to $170-190/t or even above $200/t for smaller continuous mining operations. The poor margins has also meant US producers like Ramaco have cut back their guidance while lost output capacity has failed to lift prices . Last month, many US producers have already looked to reduce shifts by extending time off for the holidays and hunting season. But this has still failed to stem supplies, particularly in the high volatile coal segment where traders and suppliers that had secured tonnes earlier this year or more recently via term contracts have been offering prices at steep discounts for on-water cargoes to Asia and port stocks in China. US producers have been focusing their efforts on sales to Asia in the face of weak demand in Europe, leading to the absence of much incremental coking coal demand in the region since last year. In a time of high fob Australia prices, margins for US sales to Asia might have been attractive. But with low Australian prices and competition from Russia and Mongolia continuing to grow, the second half of 2024 has seen poor margins for US sales to Asia. While Russian mining costs have risen, they are still well under the levels in the US. Industry sources peg average production cost for open-pit mining in the Kuzbass region at $18.37-35.75/t, excluding value-added tax (VAT), while underground mining stands at $24.83-60.58/t, excluding VAT, according to sources at Russian coal mining companies. Russian coal is also typically discounted to account for sanctions and difficulties with payments, and more recently the export duty on Russian coking coal was removed. US president-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose import tariffs on all imports from China has drawn concern in the market about China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US coal. In a well-supplied market and the presence of strong competing producing countries at key import destinations, many US producers expect they will have to absorb any increase in tariff to secure sales to China. At a recent industry conference in Prague, several participants indicated the fob Australia PLV index should be in the region of $220-225/t to be sustainable for the wider industry. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Workers strike at Australia's Gladstone port

24/12/17

Workers strike at Australia's Gladstone port

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Union members are engaging in a day-long work stoppage at Queensland's Port of Gladstone today, as port strikes spread across Australia. Gladstone Ports is "experiencing impact to some Port operations due to union-led protected industrial action," a company spokesperson confirmed to Argus . "GPC has been engaged in contingency planning and is liaising with customers to minimise operational impacts while prioritising safety," the representative said. Five unions, representing hundreds of GPC workers, voted to authorise a range of strike actions, including unlimited work stoppages, last week. The current day-long stoppage does not involve all five of those unions, although the non-participating unions may engage in industrial actions over the coming days. The port of Gladstone is a major coal and LNG hub. Queensland exporters shipped 63.7mn t of coal and 23mn t of LNG out of the port in 2023, supporting the state's resource sectors. The Gladstone stoppage comes alongside day-long work stoppages at operator Qube's ports across Australia that began on 16 December. Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) workers last week decided that they would launch 24-hour stoppages at the ports of Kembla, Brisbane, and Darwin, on 16 December. These ports tend to handle grains, livestock, petroleum, and coal shipments. Qube is also expecting the MUA to shortly launch industrial actions at the ports of Dampier, Freemantle, Port Hedland, Bunbury, Geraldton, and Whyalla. The company's Port Hedland and Dampier facilities play a major role in supporting Western Australia's mineral sector, handling iron mined by most of the state's major miners. Union and GPC negotiators have been locked in discussions over the GPC Enterprise Agreement for months, unable to agree on wage and rostering proposals. Qube and the MUA similarly disagree over wage and employment condition proposals. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

24/12/12

US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

Washington, 12 December (Argus) — US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said. Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said. "Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said. The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said. US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way. US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989. Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities. Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023. If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase. Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

24/11/27

Australia's BOM forecasts severe cyclone season

Sydney, 27 November (Argus) — Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expects the country to experience 11 tropical storms over the next few months, threatening the country's mineral-rich Pilbara region and coal infrastructure in Queensland. The number of storms is in line with historical averages, but BOM warns that rising ocean temperatures could increase their severity. The state weather agency believes that four of these storms will make landfall from late December, and that a La Nina event could start later this year, although it may not last very long. La Nina events are associated with high levels of cyclonic activity. BOM's forecasts suggest that five of the storms are likely to form around Western Australia's mineral-rich Pilbara region, which houses more than 40 operating iron ore mines and two lithium mines. Over the last three months, sea surface temperatures around Pilbara have exceeded historical averages by 1.2–2°C, warming more than in any of the country's other cyclone-prone regions. On the other side of the country, four tropical storms could form around Queensland's cattle and coking coal producing regions, although these are likely to be less severe than the Pilbara storms. Temperatures across most of Queensland are forecast to exceed historical averages by 0.4–1.2°C in October-December. Cyclonic weather in Pilbara could disrupt iron shipping and mining activity in the region. Australia's three largest iron export ports sit along the region's coast. In 2019, Cyclone Veronica forced the closure of Pilbara's three major ports and multiple mines operated by mining company Rio Tinto, prompting the firm to cut its production forecasts for the year. Harsh storms in Queensland have previously damaged vital coal transport links in the state, hampering exports. In 2017, Cyclone Debbie damaged rail lines linking coal mines to the ports of Gladstone, Hay Point, Dalrymple Bay, and Abbott Point, which handle most of the state's coking coal exports. More recently, severe weather also halted deliveries to Mackay port . Queensland and Pilbara are also home to major LNG terminals at Dampier and Gladstone ports that sit within cyclone-prone zones. The two terminals together export over 3mn t/month of LNG . By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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