Future Asian LNG price ceiling determined by TTF
A surge in Asian spot LNG prices to record highs ahead of the peak northern hemisphere winter demand season has sparked questions on where the price ceiling for the fuel is.
But the answer may depend entirely on European gas hub prices, industry participants said.
The front half-month ANEA price, the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia, rose by $5.670/mn Btu or 15.6pc on 6 October, breaching $40/mn Btu for the first time and hit an all-time high of $42.095/mn Btu for first-half November deliveries. It surpassed its previous high of $39.720/mn Btu reached on 13 January for deliveries in the first half of February this year.
It may rise much further, depending on how European gas hub prices move, industry participants said.
"LNG prices are fully dependent on TTF now," a trader said. "So the correct question is how high TTF [will] go." The TTF is a virtual trading point for natural gas in the Netherlands.
"LNG prices will ensure a $3-4/mn Btu premium to TTF," he added, with the premium accounting for the differential in shipping rates associated with delivering LNG supplies to the respective regions.
Asia tracks TTF gains
The rally in Asian spot LNG prices has mainly been driven by sharp gains in the Dutch TTF natural gas price.
The unprecedented TTF price surge has essentially intensified competition for LNG supplies between Asian and European buyers, encouraging sellers marketing volumes to Asia to lift their offers while forcing buyers to raise their bids to secure cargoes from a pool of highly sought-after supplies.
This has underscored the interconnectedness of the global gas market. "Asian spot LNG prices and the TTF have become inextricably linked," a European trader said.
The front-month November TTF price rose by $7.734/mn Btu, or 24.1pc, from the previous day, settling at an all-time high of $39.828/mn Btu on 5 October. The ANEA price for deliveries in first-half December and second-half December on 6 October was $3.077/mn Btu and $3.402/mn Btu higher respectively than the TTF price.
Lower than average gas inventories in Europe have been the key driver for the TTF gains, with a colder than expected winter last year having led to heavy withdrawals from storage facilities and spurring current restocking.
Gas storage sites in Europe were 76pc full at 840.8TWh on 5 October compared with 95.3pc full at 1,062.5TWh a year earlier and the average 90.2pc and 991.1TWh held by inventories in the same period over 2016-20.
Other factors including uncertainty surrounding the start of gas flows through the 55bn m³/yr Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia into Germany, disruptions at gas fields in Norway, as well as expectations of cold weather and low wind output in Europe in the next two weeks have exacerbated concerns of gas supply availability in the region and contributed to the TTF price rally.
There are general market expectations that the TTF price will head higher as winter approaches. But possible intervention by European governments to curb soaring gas prices and a potential boost in Russian gas supplies to Europe could limit gains, industry participants said.
Winter risks
"Even if winter turns out to be normal, as long as the TTF continues going up, we will still see prices going up," an Asian producer said.
But a colder than usual winter in Asia could greatly increase the scope for additional LNG demand and amplify the gains in prices.
"We were seeing real, strong consumer demand coming out of Asia," a trader said referring to when prices peaked in January this year. "Almost every buyer was looking for cargoes."
But current demand is far from any peak. Buying activity in the past few days has been led by trading firms looking to cover short positions in the Pacific, with Chinese buyers mostly out of the market with its 1-7 October national day holidays.
Japanese buyers have also mostly stayed on the market sidelines with comfortable inventories for October-December deliveries, as a generally mild summer and weak industrial demand limited LNG consumption. Japanese utilities have even been offering volumes for deliveries in November and December in recent weeks, reflecting their lack of prompt spot requirements.
But consumer demand is expected to pick up in the coming weeks to months when buyers focus on purchasing January and February supplies, especially if winter turns out to be colder than usual. Heating requirements typically peak during January and February when temperatures tend to be the lowest.
"We don't have additional spot requirement in the fourth quarter… But if it will be very cold, we have to buy [in the] middle of winter," a Japanese buyer said.
"It will only get worse when it starts snowing in Asia and Europe," a trader said, suggesting that prices will likely rally further when temperatures plunge.
The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts a 40pc probability of below normal temperatures across most of the country from December to February, according to its latest three-month weather forecast published on 24 September. Only the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions are forecast to have a 30pc probability of colder than usual weather in the same period.
The seasonal forecast by Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau, published on 30 September, has a more moderate prediction. It shows a 50pc probability of normal temperatures, as well as a 20pc likelihood of below normal temperatures and a 30pc chance of above normal temperatures across November and December.
TTF-ANEA link turnaround
The strong TTF-ANEA correlation contrasts starkly with previous years, when the TTF was generally looked at as a price floor for spot LNG prices in Asia.
"Northeast Asia had sort of always been regarded as the "premium" market for LNG… and Europe wasn't able to exert as much influence as it does now," a trader said.
Asian spot LNG prices hit their previous peak in January this year as Asian buyers rushed to secure cargoes to refill inventories as a frigid winter drained stocks. This occurred during a severe supply crunch caused by a spate of unplanned liquefaction disruptions in the US, Malaysia, Qatar, Australia and Indonesia.
The front half-month ANEA price had risen by $23.32/mn Btu, or 142pc, during 1-13 January when it hit its then high of $39.720/mn Btu. But the front-month TTF price had only inched up by 58.1¢/mn Btu, or 8.2pc, across the same period and was at a substantial premium of $32.032/mn Btu to the front half-month ANEA price.
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Greek regulator approves 2025 gas tariff increases
Greek regulator approves 2025 gas tariff increases
London, 29 August (Argus) — Greek energy regulator RAEWW has approved 2025 gas transmission tariffs previously proposed by transmission system operator Desfa, with some alterations. The annual tariff for entry to the Greek grid is set at roughly €0.35/MWh for 2025, around 4pc higher than in 2024 (see data & download) . Exit tariffs at domestic and international points will be €0.59/MWh, a nearly 21pc increase on the year, while the LNG regasification tariff is set at €0.30/MWh, nearly 35pc higher than in 2024. Before annual capacity auctions in July, Desfa had proposed some differentiation in entry and exit tariffs for different interconnection points, but RAEWW has instead opted for equalising entry and exit fees regardless of the point. Multipliers for shorter-term capacities are set at around 1.38 for quarterly products, 1.48 for monthly products and 2.97 for daily products. These are the same multipliers which have been used for the past two years. RAEWW set the allowed revenue for transmission services at €149.2mn. A much larger portion of the allowed revenue will come from exit points, at around €90.5mn compared with €58.7mn at entry points. The regulator set an allowed revenue of €23.6mn for LNG services. It noted the Revithoussa LNG terminal has consistently exceeded its allowances since 2019, peaking at 312pc in 2023 as use of the terminal soared. RAEWW has also opened a public consultation on proposed changes to the rulebook of Greece's Henex exchange, which would create a new "trading-only" type of participant. The new category of participant does not need to be a registered user of the transmission system, but must have concluded a contract with exclusively one other participant who is registered, and guarantee that it will fulfil its obligations arising from any concluded trades. If the registered system user loses its registered status, then the trading-only participant also does. Any termination of contract between the two parties must immediately be reported to Henex. Interested parties can email responses to the consultation to RAEWW until 20 September. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
London, 29 August (Argus) — The UK government will develop new environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, in the light of a recent Supreme Court decision that ruled consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The ruling means that "end use emissions from the burning of extracted hydrocarbons need to be assessed", the government said today. The government will consult on the new guidance and aims to conclude the process "by spring 2025", it said today. It will in the meantime halt and defer the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities until the new guidance is in place, including statements that are already being assessed. The Supreme Court in June ruled that Surrey County Council's decision to permit an oil development was "unlawful because the end use atmospheric emissions from burning the extracted oil were not assessed as part of the environmental impact assessment". The government also confirmed that it will not challenge judicial reviews brought against the development consent granted to the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A judicial review in the UK is a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made by a public body, focusing on the procedures followed rather than the conclusion reached. Environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift launched legal challenges in December seeking a judicial review of the government's decision to permit Rosebank. Norway's state-owned Equinor and London-listed Ithaca hold 80pc and 20pc of Rosebank, respectively. Greenpeace in July 2022 separately filed a legal challenge against the permitting of Shell's Jackdaw field. "This litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn", the government said. The Labour government, voted into office in July , pledged not to issue any new oil, gas or coal licences, but also promised not to revoke existing ones. Equinor is "currently assessing the implications of today's announcement and will maintain close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to advance the project. Rosebank is a vital project for the UK and is bringing benefits in terms of investment, job creation and energy security", the company told Argus today. North Sea oil and gas production "will be a key component of the UK energy landscape for decades to come", the government said today. Argus has also contacted Shell for comment. The UK government introduced a climate compatibility checkpoint in September 2022, designed to ensure that oil and gas licensing fits UK climate goals. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The checkpoint, though, does not take into account scope 3 emissions. These typically make up between 80pc and 95pc of total oil and gas company emissions. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
London, 28 August (Argus) — Greek gas demand will fall by nearly 70pc by 2050 as increasing renewable power installations displace gas in the power generation mix, according to Greece's revised National Climate and Energy Plan (NECP) put out for consultation last week. Gas consumption falls to 44.1TWh in 2030 and then to 16.2TWh by 2050 from 51.2TWh in 2022, under projections in the NECP. This will be driven by renewables displacing gas in the power mix, the replacement of gas units for heating in residential and industrial contexts through electrification, and a rise in the production of biogas and biomethane. Specifically for industry, the NECP assumes that gas demand will gradually decline to just 900GWh by 2050 from 6.6TWh in 2022, while in the commercial and public sector it will drop to 200GWh ( see gas table ). The NECP assumes a "dramatic increase in the electrification of building heating" through heat pumps, taking into account the ban on the sale of new oil and gas boilers from 2025, new EU laws on energy efficiency requirements in buildings, and the inclusion of building emissions in the EU emissions trading system. The power sector accounts for the majority of Greek gas demand. The NECP assumes that gas-fired power generation will decline to 10.4TWh by 2030 and 4.8TWh by 2050, far below 19.1TWh in 2022. Gas is displaced by solar and wind, with renewables contributing 96pc of domestic power generation by the middle of the century ( see power table ). But the NECP still foresees installed gas-fired capacity remaining high later into the decade, reaching a peak installed capacity of 7.9GW in 2030 before falling back to 6.4GW in 2050, slightly above 6.3GW in 2022. The government expects Greece to become a net power exporter already in 2035, having been a net importer of 3.5TWh in 2022. Gas-fired plants will remain "essential to ensure, in all cases, the stability and security of supply of the electricity system throughout the energy transition period", the NECP says. The plan foresees the need for a national compensation mechanism for gas-fired plants, particularly given the likely expansion of energy storage such as batteries further displacing gas from the power mix in 2030-40. Even some oil plants will potentially need to remain in cold reserve in case of emergency, mostly to ensure supply to some of the Greek islands. And while the plan projects a nearly 70pc drop in gas demand by 2050, it still envisages the expansion of the national transmission system, mostly to facilitate Greece becoming "the main energy hub of the wider region". The plan lists seven main gas interconnector projects that are of "national, regional and international interest", including the doubling of the Trans-Adriatic pipeline's capacity to 10bn m³/yr, an expansion of the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria's capacity to 5bn m³/yr, and the implementation of the Dioriga Gas LNG terminal, among others. If transmission system operator Desfa's expansion plans are fully carried out, transit capacity will increase to 8.5bn m³/yr by 2026 from 3.1bn m³/yr at present. However, these plans could be endangered "if the declared intention to fully decouple the EU from Russian gas is not implemented and if regional needs continue to be met mainly by Russian gas channelled through Turkey". To avoid significant increases in Greek transmission tariffs, "only the absolutely necessary investments in the expansion of gas infrastructure" are promoted, according to the plan. The NECP supports the development of small-scale LNG, enabled through the truck-loading services at Revithoussa and the under-construction bunkering jetty there. Small-scale LNG can displace oil in remote locations not connected to the gas grid, and is also important in decarbonising shipping and heavy land transport, the plan says. Annual biomethane production rises to 2.1TWh by 2030 and 4.6TWh in 2050 from zero at present under the plan. About 80 biogas plants currently produce 1.4 TWh/yr of biogas, and 38 of these adjacent to gas networks could be converted "relatively quickly" to biomethane production of about 900 GWh/yr. The remaining 1.2 TWh/yr targeted by 2030 will come from new plants. The NECP also aims to cut Greece's dependence on imports through the development of domestic gas production, if it proves to be commercially viable. Greece has awarded nine onshore and offshore exploration licences, and in April 2022 declared these projects to have national priority. In the past two years, "investigations have been accelerated" and drilling decisions are expected in the next two years. If final investment decisions are taken, new domestic production could come on line before the end of the decade. Preliminary estimates put potential and probable reserves in Greece at about 680bn m³, which if exploited would make Greece an exporter already by 2030, according to the NECP. More domestic production increases revenues for the Greek state, which can partly be used to implement the energy transition, the government said. By Brendan A'Hearn Projected annual power production by source TWh/yr 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Lignite 5.8 4.5 - - - - - Natural gas 19.1 12.2 10.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.8 Oil 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 - - Biomass and biogas 0.1 0.5 0.4 - - - - Solar 7.1 12.5 20.3 27.0 37.1 43.8 49.2 Onshore wind 10.9 15.8 20.7 21.9 25.5 30.3 30.2 Offshore wind - - 0.6 14.7 21.7 30.6 43.6 Hydro 3.9 5.8 6.4 7.4 7.7 8.6 9.1 Net imports 3.5 3.2 1.8 -3.7 -6.7 -11.1 -6.6 — Greek NECP Industrial and residential/commercial gas demand TWh/yr 2022 2030 2035 2040 2050 Industrial gas demand 6.6 4.9 4.6 1.4 0.9 Residential/commercial gas demand 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 — Greek NECP Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US, Italy, Germany miss goal to cut fossil fuel finance
US, Italy, Germany miss goal to cut fossil fuel finance
Edinburgh, 28 August (Argus) — Countries including the US, Italy and Germany continued to finance international fossil fuel projects last year despite committing to stop doing so by the end of 2022, according to a report by think-tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and civil society organisation Oil Change International. A total of 39 countries and development banks, including the US, Canada, Germany, the UK, France and Italy, promised to end international public finance for unabated fossil fuels by the end of 2022. The Glasgow pledge — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — signed on the sidelines of the UN Cop 26 climate talks has exemptions for "limited and clearly defined circumstances consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement". The report found that the US invested $3.2bn in 10 overseas projects last year and its export-import bank approved $500mn for 300 oil and gas well in Bahrain. The US is "currently considering at least five fossil fuel megaprojects that are all steeped in controversy, including gas projects in Guyana, Papua New Guinea and Mozambique", the report said. The organisations said Switzerland approved five fossil fuel projects abroad last year for a total of $1.4bn, Italy and Germany approved $1bn each and Italy's export credit agency SACE provided $4.3bn for petrochemical projects. Italy's policy contains "numerous wide-ranging loopholes" that essentially allow SACE "to continue its fossil finance virtually unhindered", the organisations said. The report also pointed out that the Netherlands committed $321mn to an oil and gas project in Brazil's Santos basin. Environmental organisations had warned last year that energy security concerns would mean some countries including the US, Germany and Italy would miss the pledge made in Glasgow . But fossil fuel finance is decreasing even among signatories with policies that do not match the ambition of the CETP, according to the report. "A year after the deadline, most CETP signatories — including Canada, the UK, France and the European Investment Bank — have met their promise," IISD and Oil Change said. And the commitments have shifted billions away from fossil fuel investments towards clean energy. The report found that signatories have collectively reduced their international public finance for fossil fuel projects by around $10bn-15bn from a 2019-21 average to around $5.2bn in 2023. International investment in clean energy rose by 16pc in the same period to $21.3bn. "Signatories particularly need to adopt ambitious and quantitative targets for rapidly scaling up finance for clean energy, commit to a high standard for the quality of this financing, as well as prioritise financing for key enabling energy sub-sectors and for the countries that need it most," the organisations said. The report found that the largest recipients of the pledge signatories' finance were upper and upper-middle income countries rather than low-income nations. The top three recipients of the signatories' international public finance for clean energy last year were Spain, Germany and Poland, they said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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