Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Japan’s SAF demand forecast at 396,000 b/d by 2050

  • : Biofuels, Oil products
  • 21/10/11

Japanese airline companies All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Air Lines (JAL) predict Japan's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) demand to be 396,000 b/d by 2050, in line with efforts to achieve zero-carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from their operations.

ANA and JAL forecast that jet fuel bought in Japan will completely shift from conventional fuel to SAF by 2050. This consumption includes domestic and international flights operated by Japanese airlines, as well as those by overseas airline companies.

The companies last month joined the Clean Skies for Tomorrow coalition and signed a 2030 ambition statement that targets reaching 10pc of global jet fuel supplies with SAF by 2030, gearing up their zero-emissions strategy with expectations of increased air travel demand after a recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Japanese airlines carried around 126,000 international passengers in July, more than double a year earlier, while passengers on domestic flights rose by 28.8pc to around 3.9mn, according to data from Japan's ministry of land and transportation.

ANA and JAL also see a need from a energy security perspective for stable domestic SAF supplies without relying on imports. Japanese companies have been exploring domestic-origin SAF produced from CO2, algae, woody biomass and used cooking oil, although none have been commercialised yet.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/05/08

Sonatrach Augusta refinery restart extends into May

Sonatrach Augusta refinery restart extends into May

Barcelona, 8 May (Argus) — Crude deliveries to Algerian state-owned Sonatrach's 198,000 b/d Augusta refinery in Italy were higher in April, but it appears a full restart from planned works will take longer than initially expected. Crude deliveries last month were around 70,000 b/d, up from 20,000 b/d in March. Receipts averaged 95,000 b/d in January-April, down from 160,000 b/d overall in 2024. The refinery has been under a planned five-year maintenance shutdown since the end of January, the first turnaround since shortly after Sonatrach bought the plant from ExxonMobil in 2019. Sonatrach initially said the facility would be back online by 30 April, with units restarting in two phases. But the company in an updated note to local authorities said an atmospheric distillation unit, propane deasphalter, hydro-desulphuriser, propane splitter and other secondary units would potentially flare on restart up to 31 May. One of these segments is the butamer unit, which caught fire in April . It is unclear if the fire added to the length of the overall stoppage. Sonatrach has not replied to queries on the matter. It was anticipated the turnaround would be a little quicker than in 2019 (see chart), but the two periods of maintenance now appear to be roughly similar. Crude delivery last month included over 45,000 b/d of Saudi Arab Light, 15,000 b/d of Kazakh Kebco and over 5,000 b/d of Algerian Saharan Blend. Argus assessed these at a weighted average gravity of 33.7°API and 1.5pc sulphur content, compared with 36.5°API and 0.9pc sulphur in February, before receipts all but stopped for the works. Receipts averaged 34.7°API and 1.2pc sulphur in January-April, compared with 35.2°API and 0.9pc sulphur overall in 2024. The pace of delivery in May is slow. Around 750,000 bl of Arab Light has discharged but no tankers are signalling arrival. By Adam Porter Augusta crude receipts mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bangchak tests runs at Thai SAF plant before 3Q launch


25/05/08
25/05/08

Bangchak tests runs at Thai SAF plant before 3Q launch

Singapore, 8 May (Argus) — Thai energy group Bangchak is conducting test runs at its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Bangkok before likely starting regular production in the third quarter, sources close to the company said. The plant, which is also the country's first SAF plant, will have an initial production capacity of 1mn litres/d. It will mainly consume ISCC-certified used cooking oil (UCO) as feedstock for SAF production via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway. Other feedstocks could also be explored in the future, company sources said. The plant will also produce byproducts such as bio-LPG and bionaphtha. Its SAF production process was developed in collaboration with Belgian biofuels processing technology company Desmet, which provided feedstock pre-treatment technologies, and US technology firm UOP Honeywell, a pioneer in hydroprocessing systems, according to Bangchak. Thailand is currently considering the introduction of a SAF mandate at a 1pc blend rate from 2026, with proposals to increase this to 3pc in 2030 and 8pc by 2037. But firm details on implementation mechanisms have yet to be announced. Thailand's board of investment in January approved corporate tax exemptions for SAF producers and investors in the country for a period ranging over 3-8 years. Bangchak has already secured offtake for some of its initial production volumes. The firm last year entered an agreement with oil major Shell's Singapore-based subsidiary to supply SAF from its plant. Bangchak also previously signed another supply agreement with Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil in December 2023, but volumes are still under discussion, a company source said. The Argus fob Singapore SAF netback price has been on a downtrend since late last year, reaching a record lows of $1,668/t on 5 March, and also marking the lowest since Argus ' assessments started in November 2020. The price was at $1,682/t on 7 May. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia


25/05/07
25/05/07

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

New York, 7 May (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices. Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit. Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart) . This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price. Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol. To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India, Saudi Arabia plan two Indian refineries


25/05/07
25/05/07

India, Saudi Arabia plan two Indian refineries

Mumbai, 7 May (Argus) — India and Saudi Arabia are to collaborate on the development of two integrated refinery and petrochemical plants in India. The plan was announced after Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met Saudi counterpart Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on 22 April, as part of the India–Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. Saudi Arabia in 2019 pledged to invest $100bn in India in several sectors including energy and petrochemicals. No further details have been provided but the projects could be Indian state-run BPCL's planned facility in Andhra Pradesh and oil firm ONGC's refinery project in Gujarat, according to industry participants. Plans for a 1.2mn b/d refinery in Ratnagiri alongside the UAE's Adnoc have been abandoned because of logistical and land acquisition challenges, industry participants say. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU-Vorhaben gegen Russland könnten AdBlue-Preis erhöhen


25/05/07
25/05/07

EU-Vorhaben gegen Russland könnten AdBlue-Preis erhöhen

Hamburg, 7 May (Argus) — Die Europäische Kommission bereitet derzeit Gesetzesvorschläge vor, die den Import von russischem Gas verbieten würde. Zeitgleich plant die EU auch, zusätzliche Zölle auf russische Düngemittelimporte zu erheben, die bereits ab Sommer greifen könnten. Dies könnte die Produktionskosten von AdBlue sowohl für Primärproduzenten als auch für Auflöser erhöhen. Aus für russische Gasimporte in die EU Mit dem Verbot sollen alle russischen Gasimporte in die EU bis Ende 2027 eingestellt werden. Bereits geschlossene Spotverträge sollen nur noch bis Ende 2025 genehmigt sein. Dies geht aus einem Vorschlag vom 6. Mai hervor. Derzeit bezieht die EU noch knapp 19 % ihres Gasbedarfs aus Russland — und das obwohl bereits zum 1. Januar 2025 die Importe über die Ukraine beendet wurden. Deutschland hatte bereits zuvor den direkten Gasimport aus Russland im Jahr 2022 eingestellt. Der Vorschlag wird im Juni präsentiert, ein endgültiger Beschluss könnte jedoch erst später gefasst werden. Primärproduzenten von AdBlue in ganz Europa dürften sich dann mit höheren Gaspreisen konfrontiert sehen. Denn diese Hersteller produzieren ihren eigenen Harnstoff, den sie dann mit destilliertem Wasser zu AdBlue vermischen. Anfang Mai haben die TTF Gaspreise als Reaktion auf den Vorschlag etwas angezogen. Noch halten sie sich jedoch auf einem verhältnismäßig niedrigen Niveau, nachdem sie Ende April ihren niedrigsten Stand seit Juli 2024 erreichten. Bereits in der Vergangenheit haben europäische Hersteller ihre Produktion sowohl von Harnstoff als auch von AdBlue aufgrund von hohen Gaspreisen mehrfach unterbrochen. So hatten jüngst die SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz eine ihrer zwei Ammoniakanlagen zwischen Mitte Januar und Ende Februar außer Betrieb genommen, nachdem die Gaspreise in Europa stark gestiegen waren. Lang erwartete Zölle auf russischen Harnstoff Am 14. Mai wird die EU darüber hinaus über zusätzliche Zölle auf russische Düngemittelimporte abstimmen. Der Gesetzesentwurf von Januar sieht vor, ab dem 1. Juli 2025 Zölle in Höhe von 40 €/t auf russische Düngemittel zu erheben. Die Zölle würden dann jährlich erhöht werden, bevor sie letztendlich zum 1. Juli 2028 auf 315 €/t steigen werden. AdBlue-Produzenten mit Löseanlagen beziehen ihren Harnstoff oftmals aus nicht-EU Ländern wie beispielsweise Russland, um von den dort niedrigeren Preisen zu profitieren. Dies erlaubt es Auflösern, AdBlue mit teils hohen Abschlägen zu Primärproduzenten anzubieten. Viele Händler verzichten öffentlich bereits seit dem Beginn des Krieges in der Ukraine freiwillig auf russische Harnstoffimporte. Tatsächlich beziehen einzelne Produzenten weiterhin russisches Produkt, welches teils über Drittländer importiert wird, um das Herkunftsland zu verschleiern. Sollte der Import von russischen Mengen durch die Zölle teurer und somit unprofitabel werden, könnten sich Auflöser dazu gezwungen sehen, entweder europäisches Produkt zu beziehen oder andere Quellen zu erschließen. Die geplante Einführung vom CO2-Grenzausgleichssystem zum 1. Januar 2026 könnte den Import aus nicht-EU Ländern allerdings ebenfalls verteuern. Unabhängig davon, ob Auflöser sich für europäischen oder nicht-europäischen Harnstoff entscheiden, dürfte dies entsprechend zu einem Anstieg ihrer Produktionskosten und somit der AdBlue-Großhandelspreise führen. Primärproduzenten befürworten deshalb die Einführung der Zölle. Von Natalie Müller Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more