Cop 26 profile: Europe sets climate bar high

: Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
21/10/22

The bloc hopes the summit will see other major emitters deliver concrete plans for net zero, writes Dafydd ab Iago

The EU has dominated global climate talks since the first UN Conference of the Parties (Cop) summit in Berlin, in addition to holding the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat in the former German capital Bonn. On top of hosting more than half of the Cops since 1995, Europe has become the first major economic region to lay out in detail a policy path towards net zero carbon emissions in 2050.

"Europe needs to lead, so the rest of the world understands where we need to go," EU climate action commissioner Frans Timmermans told EU environment ministers signing off this month on the bloc's negotiating mandate for Cop 26. That self-image of a bloc leading with ambitious headline targets, and detailed EU and national legislation, is key to the EU's negotiating position in Glasgow.

Having surpassed its previous 20pc reduction target set for 2020, the EU submitted confirmation, this May, to the UN of EU-level emission cuts of 3.8pc in 2019 compared with 2018. That is a full 24pc lower than 1990 levels, even before Covid-19 restrictions cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions last year. The bloc also updated its nationally determined contribution (NDC) and legally bound itself to carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting GHG emissions in 2030 by at least 55pc compared with 1990, up from a previous 40pc target (see table).

For Brussels then, Glasgow must force other major emitters, such as China and the US, to deliver with concrete plans rather than vague commitments towards net zero. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen only sees China's announcement at the UN that it will stop building coal-fired generation abroad or US president Joe Biden's promise to double US international climate finance as "steps in the right direction". While repeating a promise to commit an additional €4bn ($4.7bn) in climate finance in 2021-27, von der Leyen wants "concrete" plans from international partners. The EU brings to Glasgow the highest level of ambition. "We do it for our planet. And we do it for Europe," she told the European Parliament this month.

If altruism does not push other Cop parties into action, the EU is fine-tuning a carbon border mechanism to protect its carbon-intensive industries. The mechanism starts in 2026 with a duty on cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertiliser and electricity imported to the EU from countries not subject to carbon pricing.

Concrete carbon phase-outs

Polishing the money aspects of the bloc's negotiating position for Glasgow, finance ministers from the EU's 27 member states stress that the "ambitious" updated NDC is being implemented by a package of legislative proposals adopted by the commission in July. And Timmermans warned environment ministers this month against using the energy price shocks that EU members are facing as an excuse to back down on proposals that are effectively phase-out schedules for CO2-intensive sectors. Timmermans said that if Europe leaves the climate crisis untackled, the resulting social unrest will be far worse than France's 2018 gilets jaunes protests over fuel and climate taxes.

More climate sceptical — and coal dependent — Poland is, for the moment, relatively isolated in arguing for postponing or lowering various climate and energy goals because of the energy price spikes. The majority of EU politicians seem to accept calls by Timmermans and von der Leyen to double down on decarbonisation policies such as an increased GHG cut — of 61pc, rather than 43pc, by 2030, compared with 2005 levels — for industries under the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). Distributors of road and heating fuels will have to purchase allowances, from 2026, to cover their emissions under a separate ETS with a carbon price that may well float above €100/t. In aviation, allowances for intra-European flights will be slowly reduced, with operators losing free allowances from 2026.

The EU's commitment to delivery is evidenced by over 3,000 pages of dense legal proposals and explanatory texts that aim to set GHG fuel intensity cuts for maritime fuels, oblige flight operators to take up 5pc sustainable aviation fuels by 2030, rising to 20pc by 2035 and 63pc by 2050, and for renewables to reach 40pc, rather than 32pc previously, of EU gross final consumption of energy by 2030.

Tougher CO2 emissions standards for new passenger cars and vans require average emissions to come down by 55pc from 2030 and by 100pc from 2035, compared with a 2020-21 target of 95g CO2/km. That effectively sets a 2035 phase-out date for sales of unabated internal combustion engines. There is also a 13pc GHG intensity reduction target for transport fuels by 2030, effectively doubling to 28pc the share of renewable fuels in road transport.

Ships calling at EU ports will have to reduce the average GHG intensity of their fuels by 6pc by 2030, 13pc by 2035 and 75pc by 2050, all from 2020 levels. And the commission wants member states to push zero-emission car sales by equipping major highways with electric charging every 60km and hydrogen refuelling every 150km.

Article 6 integrity

Signing off on a negotiating mandate for Timmermans and the commission in Glasgow, EU environment ministers have called for article 6 of the Paris climate agreement to set rules for international carbon trading that are "consistent with the necessary increased global ambition and the achievement of climate neutrality, and that avoid double counting and lock in to high-emissions pathways". Ministers specifically want article 6 provisions that promote sustainable development, ensure environmental integrity and ambition, and address risks such as "non-permanence" of carbon cuts or sequestration and "leakage" from projects.

Off the record, EU officials involved in the nitty-gritty of climate negotiations are openly sceptical about international carbon trading, flagging an increasing number of complaints about the credibility of voluntary offsets with "different controversies in different countries". Officials fear double counting and the need for "corresponding" adjustments of their own emission figures when countries sell reductions to others. "Fostering global ambition, ensuring environmental integrity and avoiding double accounting are at the core of the Paris agreement and of the EU position on market mechanisms," European environment commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius says.

The EU's non-governmental organisations have called the bloc's negotiating position "good enough", especially as EU ministers now back a five-year timeframe for countries' NDCs to the Paris agreement to be implemented from 2031. But campaigners say the EU27 have intentionally left their negotiators room to manoeuvre, including on how the EU and member states will help reach the €100bn goal for international climate finance for developing countries. And non-governmental organisation Carbon Market Watch wants the EU to do more to ensure international carbon market negotiations move beyond just compensating emissions and zero-sum offsetting to deliver real GHG reductions. It calls for tough offsetting and carbon trading rules at Cop 26, and will this month present critical analysis of claims by companies including Shell, Total, BP, Russian state-controlled Gazprom and Chinese state-controlled PetroChina of carbon-neutral natural gas and crude shipments.

EU GHG reduction targets
NDC target %	Baseline year	Target year

2016 — 40pc	1990	2030
2020 — 55pc	1990	2030
2016 — 80-95pc	1990	2050
2020 — 100pc	1990	2050

EU GHG emissions by source

Net EU electricity generation, 2019

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25/04/15

Net zero banking body ups flexibility for climate goals

London, 15 April (Argus) — The Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) will increase flexibility around climate targets in its framework, allowing its members to set targets aligned with the upper temperature limit sought by the Paris climate agreement. Members voted to introduce less stringent targets "in response to changing external circumstances and member needs", the NZBA said today. The NZBA is a voluntary global initiative with more than 120 banks as members. The group aims to align financing with reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 — in line with the Paris agreement. The Paris accord seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5°C. Members "voted overwhelmingly in favour of adopting proposed changes", the NZBA said today. Banks that join the alliance commit to developing long-term and intermediate targets towards net zero GHG emissions and to reporting on progress towards these. The changes to the guidance "acknowledge a wider range of net zero pathways that align with the temperature goals of the Paris agreement… This acknowledgment increases flexibility for banks with exposures to a range of markets and sectors to manage targets and transition across their balance sheet", the NZBA said. The alliance also intends to further support members, including around sectoral engagement and to help members understand new and emerging practices and approaches. "Over 100 member banks have already set independent sectoral targets using net zero by 2050 1.5°C pathways. There is nothing in the adopted changes that would cause them to move away from this. 1.5°C remains the guiding star", an NZBA spokesperson told Argus . But the alliance noted that in recent years "the external landscape for banks has rapidly changed". The amended framework recognises that "net zero transitions in the real economy are progressing at different speeds across sectors and regions and that regulatory requirements for climate risk and disclosure have increased in some jurisdictions", the spokesperson said. Several large US banks exited the initiative earlier this year , days ahead of US President Donald Trump's return to the White House. Netherlands-based, sustainability-focused Triodos Bank today said that it would leave the NZBA, as "the new guidelines fall short of the needed urgency to align loans and investments portfolios" with the 1.5°C goal. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

25/04/15

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UN carbon market advances on leakage, baseline issues

25/04/15

UN carbon market advances on leakage, baseline issues

Berlin, 15 April (Argus) — The UN's climate arm the UNFCCC has further refined rules relating to greenhouse gas (GHG) leakage and emissions reduction baselines for generating credits under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (Pacm). The mechanism's methodological expert panel drew up a draft standard on addressing GHG leakage at its fifth meeting last week, clarifying definitions such as "positive" and "negative" leakage, the "activity boundary" and "controlled" sources of GHG. The standard clarifies that the avoidance or minimisation of leakage only applies to negative leakage, even while avoidance of leakage is not possible in all instances. The standard will apply to both emission reductions and removals, and will focus on project-level activities, with a future version to address larger-scale activities such as national crediting programmes. And a draft standard on setting the baseline against which emissions reductions are measured, to prevent over-crediting, outlined the importance of ensuring that the downward adjusted historical baseline of emissions is at least as low as the conservative business-as-usual scenario. The panel proposed future regular revisions of the standard to allow for advances in best available technology, or for mitigation actions implemented at larger and therefore more cost-efficient scales. The panel also suggested some guidance may be needed to determine the scenario for certain types of carbon removal activities. The two draft standards will be put to the Pacm regulator — the supervisory body of the mechanism's governing Article 6.4 of the Paris climate agreement — for adoption. The panel was set up in early 2024 after countries at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in December 2023 threw out the supervisory body's proposals for the mechanism. The panel at its meeting also made progress on the concept of "suppressed demand", which must be taken into account by the Pacm to allow some increase in emissions to enable a host country's socio-economic development. It agreed on the conservative level of 1,000kWh/per capita to "minimise" over-crediting. The panel also progressed on addressing the non-permanence of emissions reductions, with a focus on instances of late, incomplete or missing monitoring reports, deciding on appropriate notification timing and relevant consequences. And it continued work on revising methodologies from the Pacm's predecessor, the clean development mechanism (CDM). The Pacm's first credits will be from transitioned CDM projects. But from next year, all Pacm credits must adhere to their own methodologies. The panel will next meet at the end of May. Stakeholders planning to propose new methodologies and methodological tools for consideration at that meeting must submit them by 21 April. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

VG begins contracted LNG deliveries at Calcasieu Pass

25/04/15

VG begins contracted LNG deliveries at Calcasieu Pass

Houston, 15 April (Argus) — US LNG exporter Venture Global began deliveries of long-term contractual cargoes at its 12.4mn t/yr Calcasieu Pass terminal in Louisiana today after the facility started commercial operations, more than three years after producing its first LNG. "We are excited to reach this milestone and are grateful for our regulators and supply chain partners who have worked with our team to reach commercial operations as efficiently and safely as possible," said Venture Global chief executive Mike Sabel. But the long-delayed and highly contested start comes amid ongoing arbitration proceedings against Venture Global, which some customers including Shell, BP, Italian utility Edison and Spanish company Repsol argue was unjustified in deferring the contracted supplies (see offtakers table) . The LNG exporter originally sought to begin commercial operations in 2022 but cited impacts from Covid-19, two hurricanes and "major unforeseen manufacturing issues" related to one of the plant's heat recovery steam generators, equipment that helps power the facility. Because several of the plant's facilities, including the power island, were not officially placed in service with federal authorization, Venture Global maintained that the plant was not commercially operating — despite producing 444 cargoes totaling 28.2mn t of LNG (about 1.28 trillion cubic feet of natural gas) since its first in March 2022, according to Vortexa data. The start-up Tuesday comes on the final day before Venture Global could have lost control of the project. The company said in a December filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the agreement under which it had financed debt requires commercial operations to be completed by 1 June 2025. Should commercial operations have not begun 45 days prior to this date — which is Tuesday — then the agreement defaults, allowing "certain investors" to exercise control over the project. Before Tuesday, the company instead sold cargoes on the spot market for prices much higher than the terms of its offtake agreements. Calcasieu Pass produced its first LNG in January 2022 and exported its first cargo on 1 March 2022 — less than a week after Russia, then a key supplier of gas to Europe, invaded Ukraine. The facility produced its first LNG just 29 months after reaching a final investment decision (FID) on the project, compared with the industry average of four to five years. The timing of the project's start dovetailed with the war-driven volatility in the European gas market, helping Venture Global realize much larger profits than it would have under contracted volumes. The firm's liquefaction fees in 2023 and 2024 averaged $12.23/mn Btu and $7.28/mn Btu, respectively, compared with the average $1.97/mn Btu in its long-term deals, according to a company presentation in March. The lengthy commissioning process generated $19.6bn in revenue by the end of September 2024, Venture Global said in the December SEC filing. Shell estimated that Venture Global sold cargoes in 2023 at an average of $48.8mn per shipment, "raking in billions of dollars while shirking its contractual obligations", according to a filing with US energy regulator FERC in March 2024. Venture Global said in March that the customer arbitration cases are not likely to be resolved until after 2025. LNG facilities usually produce commissioning cargoes for a few months before beginning long-term contracts. But Venture Global has said its unique plant design, which uses a higher number of smaller, modular liquefaction trains compared with traditional trains, requires a longer start-up process. Calcasieu Pass LNG consists of 18 trains paired in nine blocks, and a similarly long commissioning period is expected at the first two phases of Venture Global's 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines facility consisting of 36 trains. The company also has plans for an 18.1mn t/yr expansion at Plaquemines. An FID is expected in mid-2027, with first LNG production 18-24 months later. Venture Global estimated that its third LNG facility, the 28mn t/yr CP2 facility adjacent to Calcasieu Pass, could export up to 550 commissioning cargoes . The company expects to make an investment decision on the first phase of CP2 this year. By Tray Swanson Calcasieu Pass offtake deals Offtaker Volume, mn t/yr Contract length, yrs Shell 2.0 20 Galp 1.0 20 Sinopec 1.0 3 CNOOC 0.5 5 Edison 1.0 20 Repsol 1.0 20 PGNiG 1.5 20 BP 2.0 20 — US DOE Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Europe saw rising weather extremes in 2024: Report

25/04/15

Europe saw rising weather extremes in 2024: Report

London, 15 April (Argus) — Europe experienced a high level of extreme weather events — such as storms, heatwaves and floods — in 2024, a report from EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) found today. "Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, and southern Europe is seeing widespread droughts", while changes in precipitation patterns, "including an increase in the intensity of the most extreme events" has been observed, the report found. Europe experienced last year the "most widespread flooding since 2013", it added. The extreme weather events "pose increasing risks to Europe's built environment and infrastructure… and urgent action is needed", the WMO and Copernicus said. Last year was the hottest on record , both for Europe and globally. Europe is the fastest-warming continent, the report noted. The global surface air temperature has increased by around 1.3°C since the 1850-1900 period, while Europe's surface air temperature over land has risen by 2.4°C over the same period, the report found. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. Climate scientists use 1850-1900 as a baseline pre-industrial period. The WMO and Copernicus also flagged "a pronounced east-west contrast" in weather conditions across Europe last year. Western Europe experienced above-average precipitation, while conditions across most of eastern Europe were drier than average. Southeastern Europe in particular experienced "record-breaking numbers" of "strong heat stress" days — those with a "feels-like" temperature of 32°C or higher — and tropical nights in 2024. Nights during which the temperature does not fall below 20°C are classified as tropical. Monitoring from agencies such as Copernicus and the WMO form a central basis of multilateral climate talks such as the annual UN Cop summits, and mid-year UN climate talks which take place in Bonn, Germany each June. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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