South Korean coal prices dip but cold limits downside
The South Korean coal market retreated this week, moving in tandem with regional coal prices, and responding to market intervention in China, the largest importer of seaborne coal. But an early cold snap across northeast Asia and a stronger power demand outlook limited the downside in South Korea.
China's main economic planning agency the NDRC announced a plan to regulate thermal coal prices, in an effort to cool domestic prices that are at historic highs amid tight availability. This weighed on global coal prices this week.
Argus assessed NAR 5,800 kcal/kg coal at $185.83/t fob Newcastle and $223.74/t cfr South Korea this week, down by $22.98/t and $4.90/t on the week, respectively.
The delivered price fell less sharply as demand remains firm in South Korea amid an early winter cold spell, while increasing exposure to spiralling spot LNG prices prompted the government to roll back autumn coal-fired capacity restrictions last week. The temperature in South Korea's capital Seoul dropped to as low as 1.3°C on 17 October, a 64-year low for the time of year, according to data published by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
And the early cold boosted power demand in South Korea this week, with average daily peak power demand increasing by 130MW on the week to 69.7GW over 18-21 October. This was up by 4.4GW on the year and around 5.8GW above the 2016-19 pre-pandemic average for the same period (see chart).
Based on up-to-date daily peak power demand and 17.6GW of scheduled nuclear availability in October, South Korea's power demand could grow by more than 7.5pc on the year this month, which could boost thermal generation by more than 10.5pc on the year, according to Argus analysis.
The latest plant maintenance schedule published by Korea Power Exchange shows South Korea's state-owned coal-fired availability will average 21.3GW this week, compared with a previous expectation of 21.5GW, based on last week's schedule. The downward revision is the result of additional maintenance being added, although no plants are scheduled to go off line for voluntary restriction purposes.
The KMA projects a 50pc chance of lower than usual temperatures during 1-7 November and a 40pc chance for 8-28 November, according to the latest one-month weather outlook published on 21 October.
Meanwhile, state-owned Korea Midland Power (Komipo) is scheduled to close a tender on 25 October seeking 520,000t of minimum NAR 5,000 kcal/kg for loadings in 2022. Independent power producer GSDEP also plans to procure up to 240,000t of minimum NAR 5,300 kcal/kg coal for loading next year, in a tender closing on 27 October.
Weak coal demand outlook to persist in Japan
Weakness in regional coal prices also weighed on implied landed coal prices for Japan this week, while there was more thermal power capacity added this week amid colder weather across northeast Asia.
Daily power demand in Japan fell by 7pc on the week to 90.6GW over the 18-20 October period, although this was still up by 5pc compared with the same period a year earlier. Japanese power demand has trended higher on the year since mid-September amid early cold weather, although it largely remained within the pre-pandemic range (see chart).
Temperatures in Japan were forecast to remain below the seasonal average for most days during the next fortnight by as much as 5.01°C, according to Speedwell weather data.
Cooler weather year-on-year encouraged the country to add around 2.7GW more thermal generation capacity for the 18-24 October period on the week, but coal-fired availability increased by only 30MW as recent strength in spot coal prices continued to erode the fuel's competitive advantage over utilities' oil-linked LNG term supply.
Japan planned to add 2.3GW more gas and 200MW more oil-fired capacity during the same period, respectively, according to the latest plant operational status notice issued by the Japan Electric Power Exchange.
Coal-fired margins halved this week as a result of the fall in Japanese wholesale power prices and strong coal prices. Theoretical profits from a 44pc-efficient coal-fired power unit averaged ¥1,480/MWh over 15-21 October, down by 54pc from a week earlier, based on the day-ahead system price from the Japan Electric Power Exchange and Argus' NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle spot coal and freight assessments.
Longer term, a 4.4GW year-on-year rise in nuclear availability to 7.8GW during October-March could also weigh on thermal generation and have a greater impact on coal than gas, given current coal-to-gas fuel switch economics.
Meanwhile, LNG stocks at Japan's main power utilities stood at a five-year high for the time of year of 2.3mn t as of 15 October, although they were around 200,000t below the level at the end of September, according to data published by the trade and industry ministry Meti. The ministry expects the country should be able to prevent any power shortage this winter, as long as power demand grows within an expected range and utilities continue to import LNG as planned.
![](https://public-assets.argusmedia.com/2021/10/22/estimateddailycoal-firedgensk22102021042143.jpg)
![](https://public-assets.argusmedia.com/2021/10/22/seven-dayavg.koreanpeakpowerdemand22102021042344.jpg)
![](https://public-assets.argusmedia.com/2021/10/22/powerdemandjapan22102021042325.jpg)
Related news posts
Union plans new rail strike despite order: Update
Union plans new rail strike despite order: Update
Adds additional comment from Teamsters Canada Rail Conference Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government ordered all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. The union said it moved to strike to "frustrate CN's attempt to force arbitration", and protect workers' rights to collectively bargain. CN had previously sought a federal order for binding arbitration. The government's back-to-work order yesterday sidestepped the collective bargaining process, and "undermined the foundation on which labour unions work to improve wages and working conditions for all Canadians", union president Paul Boucher said today. "Bargaining is also the primary way our union fights for rail safety — all considerations that outweigh short-term economic concerns," Boucher said. The union was more optimistic in its strike notice to CN this morning. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable." It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. Hearings are also underway to address preliminary issues, the union said. But the Teamsters said it was prepared to appeal the case to federal court if necessary. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government forced all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable," the union said today in its notice to CN. It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Whitehaven sets modest 2024-25 Australian coal target
Whitehaven sets modest 2024-25 Australian coal target
Sydney, 22 August (Argus) — Australian producer Whitehaven Coal has set a modest target of 28mn-31.5mn t of managed sales in the 2024-25 fiscal year to 30 June, as it settles in its coal mine acquisitions and deals with rail congestion. The firm said that this target is very achievable. It managed sales of 19.5mn t in 2023-24 , with under three months of attributable production from the 12mn t/yr Blackwater and 4mn t/yr Daunia that it bought from BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) in April. It managed sales of 16.63mn t in 2022-23 . Whitehaven struggled with sales from Daunia during April-June as it was unable to secure enough pathways on the Goonyella rail line to BMA's Hay Point port and the multi-user port of Dalrymple Bay Coal terminal. The firm has since resolved this issue, which was related to unbundling Daunia's rail needs from the wider BMA contract, and has caught up on shipments during July-August. But it is still having issues with the Goonyella network. "Most users agree that that network in particular is constrained in volumes due to both maintenance and weather," Whitehaven chief executive Paul Flynn said. The Blackwater network, which connects into the port of Gladstone is unaffected, he added. Daunia sits in the middle of the Goonyella network, which contributed to network operator and rail haulage firm Aurizon missing its 2023-24 coal haulage target . The firm agreed to sell 30pc of Blackwater to Japanese steel producers JFE Steel and Nippon Steel for $1.078bn, allowing it to reduce its debt following the BMA acquisition. Flynn has no intention of using the cash to join in the bidding for UK-South African coal mining firm Anglo American's Australian assets but will stay focused on Australian rather than US metallurgical coal growth options. It has two internal development coking coal growth options in Winchester South in Queensland and Vickery in New South Wales. Whitehaven rival Yancoal decided not to pay a dividend on 20 August so that it would have a strong enough balance sheet for acquisitions, including the Anglo American options. By Jo Clarke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Work stoppage begins at Canadian railroads
Work stoppage begins at Canadian railroads
Washington, 22 August (Argus) — Operations at Canada's two largest railroads ended Thursday morning at 12:01am ET as a work stoppage began following the failure of labor contract talks. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) locked out union members, while the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) launched a strike at CPKC. The union has not yet issued a strike notice to CN , but its workers are barred from the property. The work stoppage freezes ongoing train shipments even if they have not reached their destinations. The railroads last week stopped loading railcars with shipments of certain toxic and poisonous materials to keep products from being abandoned in unsafe locations, and this week stopped loading all commodities and other freight within Canada. Operations along CN and CPKC's US lines continue but trains cannot cross into Canada. The union confirmed just after midnight that work stoppages at CN and CPKC had begun. Most Teamsters members stopped work at 12:01am ET, though rail traffic controllers at CPKC will keep working until 2:01am ET. CPKC and CN announced they had formally locked out employees represented by the Teamsters union. CN said the union did not respond to an offer it had made in a last attempt to avoid the strike. Wide range of commodities in crosshairs The work stoppage will affect freight deliveries for a variety of goods across North America, including shipments of propane to rural communities, grain and coal deliveries to Canadian export terminals, and chemical inputs to manufacturing facilities. CN said Wednesday that grain prices were already being affected and that sawmills in British Colombia were cutting shifts. Coal exports from Canadian mines would be held because those operations are only served by CN and CPKC. But western US coal exports are not expected to see much of a disruption since US carrier BNSF has rail lines going directly to Westshore Terminals near Vancouver. BNSF will not be able to interchange railcars with CN and CPKC in Canada, however. Crude markets are also not expected to see significant disruption from a strike in the short term because of pending maintenance at upstream oil sands facilities and spare pipeline capacity. Prices for Canadian propane and butane — which rely heavily on rail to move product from an oversupplied market to the US — fell Wednesday ahead of the strike. Wide gap between workers, railroads The railroads and the Teamsters remain far apart on contract terms. The union — which represents roughly 9,300 train operators and support staff at CN and CPKC and 85 rail traffic controllers at CPKC — said forced relocation and scheduling and fatigue management that will lead to safety risks are the key points of dispute. CN said its offers, which have been turned down repeatedly, would have improved safety, increased wages, and provided employees with better schedules. CPKC chief executive Keith Creel on 19 August claimed union leadership had made "wildly inaccurate characterizations" about the railroad's proposals in order to "create a false public narrative" about negotiations. He said the railroad did not unilaterally change or cancel the terms of the most recent collective agreement or make proposals that compromise safety. Creel said most recently CPKC has focused on a status quo-style contract renewal with a duration of three years. That proposal would have no work rule changes and the railroad only wanted to negotiate "reasonable adjustments" to the timing of held-away pay to address regulatory changes made by Transport Canada last year. CN called on Canadian minister of labour Steven MacKinnon to intervene this week. He has already been meeting with each railroad and the Teamsters. CPKC this week reiterated earlier calls for binding arbitration, but MacKinnon rejected that request on 15 August. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
![](/_next/image?url=%2F-%2Fmedia%2Fproject%2Fargusmedia%2Fmainsite%2Fimages%2F14-generic-hero-banners%2Fherobanner_1600x530_generic-c.jpg%3Fh%3D530%26iar%3D0%26w%3D1600%26rev%3D-1%26hash%3DFC2BEDE406483FEF5FDB9549159BAC11&w=3840&q=75)
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more