Japan will continue to focus on restarting nuclear reactors instead of building new reactors. This may complicate the country's target to realise carbon neutrality by 2050, as it will have little nuclear output by then without new construction.
Japanese premier Fumio Kishida and cabinet ministers on 22 October endorsed a basic energy policy that did not lay out any plans for construction or replacement of nuclear reactors and only focused on the restart of safe reactors. The government did not modify prospects for the nuclear sector from the draft plan that was made in July, despite requests from industry groups such as power and steel to allow new building and replacement, to ensure energy security and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Japan typically reviews the country's basic energy policy every three years. The trade and industry ministry (Meti) started discussion on the latest revisions in October last year, forming a key part of efforts to update its April 2030-March 2031 goal to reduce GHG emissions by 46pc from 2013-14 levels and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The cabinet adopted the policy in time for the COP 26 climate change conference that takes place in Glasgow on 31 October-12 November.
Under the latest energy policy, Japan plans to generate 20-22pc of power output from nuclear energy, with 36-38pc from renewables, 41pc thermal power and 1pc from hydrogen and ammonia in 2030-31, which were also unchanged from the draft plans.
The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, a group of major power utilities, expressed regret over the latest energy policy that does not mention new building and replacement of reactors. But it also said the new policy is meaningful, as it still includes a description to continue using necessary nuclear capacity.
Kishida, who named a new cabinet on 4 October, has adopted a positive stance towards the nuclear industry, favouring restarting safe reactors and considering replacing ageing ones. But Kishida also had said the cabinet would review public comments before approving the draft policy.
The government has well reviewed public hearings that was carried out from 3 September-4 October, which included both positive and negative opinions against nuclear energy, an official at Meti said. The current priority is to earn public understanding by restarting safe reactors, the official added.
But Japan will phase out nuclear reactors without any capacity additions. Under the current nuclear safety rules, all reactors are allowed to operate for 40 years with a one-time option to extend their lifespan to 60 years. This suggests that 15 of the existing 33 reactors with a combined capacity of 14,057MW will close by December 2030 and there will be no operational reactors in 2050, assuming a 40-year lifespan.
The future of the nuclear industry also depends on which political party will take majority seats in the 31 October lower house parliamentary election, as most parties have pledged a no-nuclear society. The current ruling liberal democratic party of Japan promotes the restart of safe reactors, without directly prohibiting building reactors. But the second largest the constitutional democratic party has pledged not to allow any new building of reactors in its manifesto.
