US HRC: Prices drop to lowest since July

: Metals
21/11/09

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropped this week on lower sales and offers, amid continued limited spot market activity.

The Argus weekly domestic US HRC Midwest assessment dropped by $70/short ton to $1,840/st, the first time below $1,900/st since 10 August and the lowest level since 20 July. The southern HRC assessment fell by $55/st to $1,840/st.

Sales of $1,800/st for December were reported as well as offers as low as $1,725/st in the Midwest. Many offers were in the $1,800/st range.

Lead times in the Midwest expanded to 4-7 weeks from 4-6 weeks.

Service center buyers reported lower levels of inquiries, a bearish sign in the weeks heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, which typically marks the start of the seasonal slowdown period.

Many consumers were in a wait-and-see approach toward the steel market, with contract buying continuing but only to meet immediate needs. Some report buying only their minimum accounts as required by their contracts.

One service center reported that a steelmaker was willing to negotiate a year-long HRC deal for less than 2,000st/month in 2022 for a little more than $1,200/st a month, a stark discount to current spot prices.

HRC import prices into Houston fell to $1,400/st ddp from $1,430/st on lower foreign offers.

Despite the US lifting the 25pc Section 232 tariffs on EU steel into the US, few in the market believe Europe will increase flows of steel into the US.

The spread between #1 busheling scrap delivered US Midwest mills and HRC selling prices fell by 5.6pc to $1,320/st from $1,399/st in the prior week, a combination of falling HRC prices and a $20/gt increase in busheling prices in the November trade. The spread is nearly three times as wide as the $447/st from a year ago.

At least one service center contact expected scrap prices continuing to increase in the December trade, and they expect that to make electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmakers defensive on dropping finished steel prices.

The Argus weekly domestic US cold-rolled coil (CRC) assessment increased slightly by $5/st to $2,160/st while the hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) assessment increased by $15/st to $2,175/st. Steel mills have been more successful in defending higher prices in CRC and HDG products as availability has generally been lower, increasing the spread with HRC to $320/st and $335/st, respectively. The market generally prices the HRC to value-add spread at $200/st.

Lead times for CRC slipped to 7-8 weeks from 8 weeks while HDG lead times fell to 7-8 weeks from 8-10 weeks.

Most of the CME HRC Midwest futures market all increased in the last week. December pricing rose by $24/st to $1,678/st, while the January futures price increased by $21/st to $1,561/st. February pricing jumped by $47/st to $1,482/st, while March pricing increased by $50/st to $1,390/st. April pricing jumped by $80/st to $1,325/st.

Plate

The Argus weekly domestic US plate assessment was flat at $1,880/st delivered. Lead times fell to 5-7 weeks from 6-9 weeks as the market waits to see if steelmakers increase prices for December tons.

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