Red Queen effect slows shale growth
Repeated downward revisions to EIA forecasts of US oil production have halved the expected rate of growth in the shale patch since the middle of this year.
Bullish EIA predictions for US crude production this year and next were revised down again this month as bottlenecks in the supply of materials, labour and equipment constrain shale oil output growth. Forecasts for October-December this year were cut by 170,000 b/d in the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), restricting annual growth this year to 500,000 b/d, compared with 740,000 b/d in the June STEO. And output next year is now expected to increase by 610,000 b/d, down from 1.05mn b/d in the June STEO and 850,000 b/d last month (see graph).
Persistent supply chain delays and rising costs are impeding drilling and completion activities in the shale patch, making it harder for firms to offset capacity losses from rapid depletion rates at existing wells. Nearly three-quarters of a "fracked" shale oil well's initial production is lost in the first 12 months and a further half in the next 12 months. Operators must keep bringing new wells on stream fast enough to maintain output — this is known as the "Red Queen effect". "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place," the Red Queen tells Alice in Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking-Glass.
Yet new well completions have stalled at 970/month since March in the seven major shale formations that the EIA monitors in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). And legacy declines at existing wells have continued to accelerate after a post-pandemic surge in completions (see graph). DPR-7 decline rates are forecast to rise to 545,000 b/d next month, or 6pc of DPR-7 production, the EIA says — up from 467,000 b/d, or 5.5pc, in March. With little improvement in the output of newly completed wells over recent months, 79pc were needed last month to offset declines, against 73pc in March, slowing the rate of output growth.
Off with their wellheads
Shale oil output growth has slowed in recent months. DPR-7 oil output will rise by 103,000 b/d (1.1pc) next month, down from an average of 145,000 b/d (1.7pc) in August-September, the EIA says. Monthly DPR-7 output growth has averaged 57,000 b/d (0.8pc) this year, as new well output kept ahead of legacy declines. But earlier EIA forecasts of strong growth next year were dashed as shale drilling and completion activity came up against supply-chain constraints. The STEO expects US crude production to rise next year by an average of 0.3pc/month, compared with a June forecast of 0.6pc.
US oil rig counts have edged up in recent weeks, according to upstream service firm Baker Hughes (see graph). In all, 610 rigs were drilling for oil in the week to 14 October, the most since March 2020. Permian basin oil rig counts remain lower than in July-August. Firms face delays in procuring materials and equipment, according to the latest Dallas Fed survey of energy firms in Texas, New Mexico and Louisiana. "The biggest issue that our company is facing is a shortage of personnel and equipment from our oil field service vendors," one respondent says. Firms cannot "attract the skilled labour that we need to deploy more drilling rigs and more frac [hydraulic fracturing] crews," the head of North Dakota's mineral resources department, Lynn Helms, says.
Frac spread counts are also back at end-July levels, with 295 active in the week to 14 October, industry monitor Primary Vision says. But this is probably close to effective capacity. With a backlog of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells nearly exhausted, firms must drill most new wells from scratch. Just 1pc of new well start-ups were DUCs last month.
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'Urgent action' needed for UK to hit net zero goals
'Urgent action' needed for UK to hit net zero goals
London, 18 July (Argus) — The UK increased the rate at which it reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions last year, but "urgent action" is needed for the country to meet its targets in 2030 and beyond, independent advisory body Climate Change Committee (CCC) said in its progress report published today. The report assesses the UK's progress towards its net zero goals against policy set out by the previous Conservative government. The new Labour government, which has been in power since 5 July, has already set the scene for a stronger decarbonisation agenda , but it "will have to act fast to hit the country's commitments", the report says. The committee tracked progress on 28 key indicators. Of the 22 that have a benchmark or target, only five are assessed as being "on track". The UK's GHG emissions last year stood at 393mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down on the year by 5.4pc, or 22mn t/CO2e, provisional data show. This estimate excludes contributions from international aviation and shipping, as these are not included in the UK's 2030 target of a 68pc cut in GHG emissions from a 1990 baseline. And last year's reduced emissions resulted primarily from a drop in gas demand, the CCC says. Combined gas demand in 2023 averaged 156mn m³/d, down from nearly 175mn m³/d a year earlier. While progress has been made, the previous administration "signalled a slowing of pace and reversed or delayed key policies", the report says. The reduction in emissions last year is "roughly in line with the annual pace of change needed" to reach the 2030 target, but the average annual rate over the previous seven years is "insufficient", the committee says. In its first days in office, the new government placed a strong emphasis on decarbonising electricity, but this is "not enough on its own", CCC acting chief executive James Richardson said. The average annual rate of GHG reduction outside the electricity supply sector over the previous seven years was 6.3mn t/CO2e, but this will need to more than double until 2030 if the UK is to meet its targets, the CCC says. In order to reach targets, "annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times" by 2030. By comparison, oil and gas use should be "rapidly" reduced and the expansion of the production of fossil fuels should be limited, according to the report. The CCC also recommended that about 10pc of UK homes will need to be heated by a heat pump by 2030, in comparison with about 1pc today. The committee criticised the exemption of 20pc of properties from the 2035 phase-out gas boiler plan, saying it is "unclear" how the exemption would reduce costs as fewer consumers would have to pay to maintain the distribution grid. Gas-fired power generation in recent months has dropped on the back of high wind output and brisk power imports. Power-sector gas burn was 25mn m³/d in March-June, roughly half of the three-year average for the period. But if UK power demand increases with electrification, gas-fired power generation could maintain its role in the country's power mix, particularly if it is combined with carbon capture, use and storage technology, for which fast development and scale-up will need to happen this decade, the CCC says. "Biases" towards the use of natural gas or hydrogen must be removed where electrification is the most economical decarbonisation solution in an industry sector. Power prices need to be reduced "to a level that incentivises industrial electrification". Oil, gas industry to meet climate goals The UK's oil and gas sector "is on track to meet its own climate goals and is not slowing down", offshore industries association OEUK said today in reaction to the CCC's report. The UK needs a plan for reducing oil and gas demand and cutting its reliance on imports, according to OEUK chief executive David Whitehouse. "We should be prioritising our homegrown energy production," he said. The sector reduced its emissions by 24pc in 2022 from 2018, meaning it met its target to reduce emissions by 10pc by 2025 early. The industry halved its flaring and venting and cut methane emissions by 45pc in 2022 compared with 2018, Whitehouse said. OEUK plans to reduce emissions by a quarter by 2027 and by half by 2030 against 2018 levels. And it aims to achieve net zero by 2050. By Georgia Gratton and Jana Cervinkova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Santos delays FID on Dorado oil field
Australia’s Santos delays FID on Dorado oil field
Sydney, 18 July (Argus) — Australian independent Santos will now target a 2025 final investment decision (FID) on its 80pc-owned Dorado oil project in Western Australia (WA), after deferring it in 2022 and last year indicating a 2024 decision. Dorado's 10pc stakeholder Australian independent Carnarvon Energy said the joint venture (JV) will evaluate a lower capital expenditure (capex) option by reducing capacity below the previously guided 75,000-100,000 b/d and phasing development wells, targeting front-end engineering and design re-entry later in 2024 "once the JV secures the best option vessel or hull". Carnarvon said overall capex prior to the first oil from the offshore field will now be below its previous guidance of $2bn. Dorado JV's other shareholder is Taiwan's state-owned CPC with 10pc. Santos reported higher April-June oil and gas output than the previous quarter on 18 July, with production from the 7.8mn t/yr Gladstone LNG (GLNG) in Queensland state up on a year earlier. It produced 22.2mn bl of oil equivalent (boe), up by 2pc from 21.8mn boe during January-March because of the return of WA's Devil Creek gas plant following a maintenance shutdown, as well as higher liquids production following cyclone-related disconnections during January-March. But output was 3pc below the year-earlier figure of 22.8mn boe. GLNG is on track to swap 18PJ (480mn m³) of gas into the domestic market over April-September 2024, Santos said, with the project maintaining its guidance of around 6mn t of LNG shipped for the year to 31 December. Production at the 6.9mn t/yr ExxonMobil-operated PNG LNG in Papua New Guinea (PNG) was down on January-March with natural decline at the Hides field, partially offset by high compression reliability from the Santos-operated Gobe and Kutubu fields. Finalisation of drilling and completion of operations activities at PNG LNG's Angore C1 and C2 wells has been achieved with both wells perforated for production. Angore project teams are now starting tie-in execution with production of 350mn ft³/d (10mn m³/d) expected during October-December. The $4.6bn Barossa backfill project in the Timor Sea is 77pc complete, Santos said, with pipeline testing completed in June and on track for its first gas in July-September 2025 within its cost guidance. Santos' 1.7mn t/yr Moomba carbon capture and storage project in South Australia is mechanically complete and on track to raise injection of Cooper basin gas plant carbon dioxide during July-December. Santos maintained its 2024 production guidance of 84mn-90mn boe and will release its half-year results on 21 August. By Tom Major Santos results Apr-Jun '24 Jan-Mar '24 Apr-Jun '23 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± Volumes ('000 t) GLNG (100pc) 1,338 1,649 1,263 6 -19 Darwin LNG (100pc) 0 0 134 100 0 PNG LNG (100pc) 2,001 2,009 2,065 -3 0 Santos' equity share of LNG sales 1,264 1,352 1,333 -5 -7 Financial LNG sales revenue ($mn) 762 901 838 -9 -15 Total sales revenue ($mn) 1,313 1,398 1,336 -2 -6 LNG average realised price ($/mn Btu) 11 13 12 -4 -10 Oil price ($/bl) 89 89 83 7 0 Source: Santos Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Urgent action needed for UK to hit net zero goals: CCC
Urgent action needed for UK to hit net zero goals: CCC
London, 17 July (Argus) — The UK increased the rate of reduction in its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2023, but "urgent action" is needed if the country is to hit its targets in 2030 and beyond, the independent advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) found today. The report assessed the UK's progress towards its net zero goals against policy set out by the previous Conservative government. The new Labour government, which has been in power since 5 July, has already set the scene for a stronger decarbonisation agenda . But it "will have to act fast to hit the country's commitments", the CCC said. The committee tracked progress on 28 key indicators. Of the 22 that have a benchmark or target, just five are assessed as "on track". The UK's GHG emissions stood at 393mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023, down by 5.4pc, or 22mn t/CO2e, on the year, provisional data show. This estimate excludes contributions from international aviation and shipping, as these are not included in the UK's 2030 target of a 68pc cut in GHG emissions, from a 1990 baseline. The UK's GHG emissions including the country's share of international aviation and shipping were 423.3mn t/CO2e in 2023, preliminary data show, 49.5pc lower than in 1990. The drop in GHGs has largely been driven by the decrease in coal-fired power generation over that time span. Although progress has been made, the previous administration "signalled a slowing of pace and reversed or delayed key policies", the CCC noted. The reduction in GHG emissions in 2023 is "roughly in line with the annual pace of change needed" to hit the 2030 target, but the average annual rate over the previous seven years is "insufficient", the committee added. The UK's 2030 emissions reduction goal is the first in line with reaching net zero by 2050. The new government has placed strong focus on decarbonising electricity in its first days in office, but this is "not enough on its own", CCC acting chief executive James Richardson said. The average annual rate of GHG reduction outside the electricity supply sector over the previous seven years was 6.3mn t/CO2e, but this will need to more than double to 2030 if the UK is to meet its targets, the CCC found. The committee found that in order to reach targets, "annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times" by 2030, while oil and gas use should be "rapidly" reduced. The CCC also recommended that around 10pc of UK homes will need to be heated by a heat pump by 2030, in comparison to approximately 1pc today. And the market share of new electric cars needs to increase to "nearly 100pc" by 2030, from a current share of 16.5pc. Labour pledged in its manifesto to restore the 2030 phase-out date for sales of new gasoline or diesel-fuelled cars, while it has set ambitious targets for renewable energy installations and pledged zero-carbon power by 2030. It has also committed to no new oil, gas or coal licences. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TotalEnergies agrees to sell stake in Nigeria SPDC JV
TotalEnergies agrees to sell stake in Nigeria SPDC JV
London, 17 July (Argus) — TotalEnergies has agreed to sell its 10pc stake in Nigeria's SPDC onshore oil and gas joint venture to Africa-focused independent Chappal Energies for $860mn. Other partners in the SPDC joint venture comprise operator Shell with a 30pc interest, state-owned NNPC with 55pc and Italy's Eni with 5pc. Shell agreed to sell its stake in the joint venture to a consortium of five companies for up to $2.4bn in January. That deal remains subject to a due diligence process by regulators. The joint venture's assets include around 50 producing oil and gas fields across 18 licences. TotalEnergies will transfer its 10pc interest and all its rights and obligations in 15 of the licences to Chappal. These licences mainly produce oil and netted TotalEnergies around 14,000 b/d of oil equivalent last year. The other three licences — OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77 — mainly produce gas and account for 40pc of supply to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) joint venture, in which TotalEnergies has a 15pc stake. TotalEnergies will also transfer its 10pc stake in these licences to Chappal but it will retain "full economic interest" in them, it said. The divestment "allows us to focus our onshore Nigeria presence solely on the integrated gas value chain and is designed to ensure the continuity of feed gas supply to Nigeria LNG in the future", said TotalEnergies' exploration and production president Nicolas Terraz. Chappal specialises in taking over and operating mature fields. It agreed a deal in November last year to acquire Norwegian firm Equinor's stake in Nigeria's OML 128 block, a transaction that was finally approved earlier this month . The company said last month that it is contemplating issuing a bond to raise up to $450mn to help it finance acquisitions. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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