Viewpoint: China overshoots on battery anodes

: Battery materials, Petroleum coke
23/01/03

Optimistic forecasts for lithium-ion battery market growth have spurred a surge in planned anode production projects, especially in China. But China's rapid development may be overshooting even this strongly growing demand, potentially setting up the market for a slowdown on the back of overcapacity.

Chinese producers have announced plans to boost capacity of synthetic graphite battery anode material to 14mn t/yr in coming years, up nearly ninefold from 1.6mn t/yr today, according to industry projections. They also intend to increase silicon anode capacity to 270,000 t/yr.

But the synthetic graphite capacity alone would be almost five times the forecast global demand for battery anode by 2025, casting doubt on how many projects will actually be developed.

In just the past two months, China's Guizhou province said it aims to build 800,000 t/yr of battery anodes and feedstock materials capacity by 2025. Jiangsu HSC New Energy Materials said it plans to complete a 200,000 t/yr anode material production facility in Jiangyin in east China's Jiangsu province within the next two years. DQ Carbon announced it would build a 160,000 t/yr anode materials plant, and mining firm Inner Mongolia Dazhong announced it will build a 100,000 t/yr synthetic graphite anode material plant in Chifeng in north China's Inner Mongolia region. And major battery materials producer Ningbo Shanshan said it is looking to accelerate construction of a 300,000 t/yr anode materials plant in Kunming in southwest China's Yunnan province.

China's northern and eastern regions today account for about 57pc of China's synthetic graphite production. But if all of the announced projects were completed, the regions' share would drop to 31pc. Much of the expansion is planned for the southwest, a region expected eventually to account for 35pc of China's capacity.

Production capacity of needle petroleum coke, a key feedstock for synthetic graphite, is not expected to grow at anywhere close to the same rate. Needle coke capacity is estimated at 2.7mn t for 2022 and is expected to rise by nearly 15pc to 3.1mn t in 2023 and by another 3pc in 2024. But current needle coke production is only about 1.1.mn t/yr. This could help explain why battery anode producers have been seeking to test other coke qualities.

China's battery anode capacity investments have been bolstered by meteoric growth in lithium-ion battery demand, with China's production and sales of new energy vehicles continually setting new record highs and with battery-electric vehicle production up by more than 90pc on the year in January-November, with further strong growth predicted in 2023.

Despite the strong pace of expansion, battery anode materials demand is only projected to reach 2.9mn t/yr globally by 2025, up from 774,000t in 2021, if current trends in electric vehicle and other lithium-ion battery production hold, according to Rystad Energy. Argus Consulting forecasts global demand for graphite will rise to 5mn t/yr by 2032. Argus Consulting is a division of Argus Media. The group's forecasts and analyses are separate and independent of Argus' news and price assessment business.

If all of China's currently planned battery anode projects were to materialise, they would meet the world's projected demand in 2050, one trader said. Already by 2023, production will be more than double expected demand.

With producers becoming increasingly concerned the market will become saturated, investment has slowed, one producer said. Prices for anode materials had already fallen by more than 40pc by November from earlier last year.

But overcapacity may not be evenly distributed, as many new plants are only equipped to supply lower quality anodes, with the high-end artificial graphite anode market remaining "in tight balance," the producer said.

There are also projects under development outside of China, which may remain more viable even as the Chinese market becomes saturated, since companies and governments wish to diversify their supply chains. The US Department of Energy in October awarded $837mn in grants to companies focused on graphite and silicon anodes, including $150mn to Novonix to help fund its 30,000 t/yr synthetic graphite production facility in Tennessee. US independent refiner Phillips 66, the main producer of needle petroleum coke outside of China, acquired 16pc of Novonix and is partnering with the company to develop battery anode technology.

By Lauren Masterson

Chinese needle coke '000t

China synthetic graphite production by region '000t

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24/11/22

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The new draft on the climate finance goal from the UN Cop 29 climate summit presidency has developed nations contributing $250bn/yr by 2035, while language on fossil fuels has been dropped, indicating work towards a compromise on these two central issues. There is no mention of fossil fuels in either the new draft text on the global stocktake — which follows up the outcome of Cop 28 last year, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels — or in the new draft for the climate finance goal. Developed countries wanted a reference to moving away from fossil fuels included, indicating that not having one would be a red line. The new draft text on the climate finance goal would mark a substantial compromise for developing countries, with non-profit WRI noting that this is "the bridging text". Parties are negotiating the next iteration of the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing nations over 2020-25 — known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). The new draft sets out a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". It also notes that developed countries will "take the lead". It sets out that the finance could come from multilateral development banks (MDBs) too. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal... $250bn will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach," a US official said. "This goal will need to be supported by ambitious bilateral action, MDB contributions and efforts to better mobilise private finance, among other critical factors," the official added. India had indicated earlier this week that the country was seeking around $600bn/yr for a public finance layer from developed countries. Developing countries had been asking for $1.3 trillion/yr in climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. The draft text acknowledges the need to "enable the scaling up of financing… from all public and private sources" to that figure. On the contributor base — which developed countries have long pushed to expand — the text indicates that climate finance contributions from developing countries could supplement the finance goal. It is unclear how this language will land with developing nations. China yesterday reiterated that "the voluntary support" of the global south is not part of the goal. The global stocktake draft largely focuses on the initiatives set out by the Cop 29 presidency, on enhancing power grids and energy storage, though it does stress the "urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures". It dropped a previous option, opposed by Saudi Arabia, that mentioned actions aimed at "transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mitigation, or cutting emissions, and climate finance have been the overriding issues at Cop 29. Developing countries have long said they cannot decarbonise or implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Developed countries are calling for substantially stronger global action on emissions reduction. By Georgia Gratton and Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

24/11/21

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Graphjet launches Malaysian biomass-to-graphite plant

24/11/20

Graphjet launches Malaysian biomass-to-graphite plant

Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — Nasdaq-listed Graphjet Technology has started operations at its artificial graphite plant in Malaysia, which will produce battery-grade graphite using recycled palm kernel shells (PKS), the firm said on 19 November. Graphjet's facility has the capacity to produce 3,000 t/yr of graphite by recycling up to 9,000 t/yr of PKS, which is sufficient to produce batteries for 40,000 electric vehicles (EVs)/yr. The firm has already received its first shipment of PKS, it said. Graphjet has another artificial graphite production facility planned in US' Nevada, and it plans to produce hard carbon at the Malaysian facility to use as feedstock at the Nevada facility. The Nevada facility is expected to have the capacity to recycle 30,000 t/yr of PKS to produce 10,000 t/yr of battery-grade artificial graphite and is slated to begin production in 2026, said Graphjet in April. China, the dominant producer of graphite, added a number of graphite products into its export licensing scheme at the end of last year. The move back then alarmed its neighbours, Japan and South Korea , which are major battery-producing countries and they have since been looking to reduce their dependency on Chinese graphite. China's graphite flake exports fell by 23pc to 44,103t during January-September following the exports curb, according to Chinese customs data. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Progress on actions to cut emissions uncertain

24/11/18

Cop: Progress on actions to cut emissions uncertain

Baku, 18 November (Argus) — Progress on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — is uncertain at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, as talks on a specific text related to the issue are at risk to be pushed back to 2025, losing any progress made in the past year. Some countries had proposed using the mitigation work programme — a work stream focused on reducing emissions — to progress the commitment made at Cop 28 in 2023 to "transition away" from fossil fuels. But talks have stalled and could end without a conclusion at the summit. Developed countries as well as developing nations including some small island states and countries in Latin America — such as Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico — have expressed disappointment about how mitigation talks were going. New Zealand called on countries to follow up on last year's decision on mitigation at Cop 28 and Norway added that these issues deserved "more than silence on mitigation". Switzerland complained that mitigation was "held up by a select few", and said that the discussion was critical for increased commitments for next year's 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are countries' climate plans that include emissions reduction targets. Cop parties are due to submit new versions by February 2025. The US also said that Cop 29 needed to "reaffirm the historical Global Stocktake decision" taken last year. And developed nations, led by the EU, called for the discussion to continue this week — the second week of Cop 29. But countries including Bolivia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, for the Arab Group, pushed back on this. The mitigation work programme is "not… open to reinterpretation", Saudi Arabia's representative said today. The country said earlier that it did not want new targets to be imposed, complaining about the "top-down approach" taken by developed countries. India reminded developed countries that they have yet to deliver on their new finance commitment — a crucial step for more ambitious NDCs in developing nations. But "Cop 29 cannot and will not be silent on mitigation", the summit's president, Mukhtar Babayev said today. "On mitigation we have been clear that we must make progress, "he said, adding that he has asked ministers from Norway and South Africa to consult on what an outcome on mitigation could look like. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra today said that it is "imperative that we send a strong signal this week for the next round of NDCs", he said. Points related to mitigation — including transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out inefficient fossil fuels subsidies — are currently mentioned in the draft text for the new finance goal, known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). It is the key issue at Cop 29. Developed countries agreed to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations over 2020-25, and Cop parties must decide on the next stage — including the amount. Developed countries are likely push for the fossil fuel language to stay in the finance goal text, especially if mitigation talks stall elsewhere. But countries such as Saudi Arabia have long opposed this, while developed countries have received some criticism for still not having given an amount for the new finance target. By Georgia Gratton, Prethika Nair and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: G20 momentum key to Cop climate finance outcome

24/11/18

Cop: G20 momentum key to Cop climate finance outcome

Baku, 18 November (Argus) — The outcome of the G20 leaders' summit in Brazil taking place on Monday and Tuesday on climate financing will be key to the success of the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, summit president Mukhtar Babayev said today. "We cannot succeed without [the G20], and the world is waiting to hear from them," Babayev said. The leaders' summit takes place at the beginning of the second week of the Cop 29 conference. Progress at Cop 29 last week towards agreeing a new climate finance target for developing countries — the so-called NCQG — was not sufficient, Babayev said. He is concerned that parties are not moving towards each other fast enough. Little progress was made in the first week on three main areas of disagreement: the amount of climate finance which should be provided, how it should be structured, and which countries should contribute. Babayev urged G20 leaders, including US president Joe Biden who will be present in Brazil, to send a "positive signal of commitment to solving the climate crisis," and deliver clear mandates for Cop 29. The talks in Baku move from the technical to the political phase this week. Ministers typically have more authority to move red lines. But parties should focus on wrapping up less contentious issues early in the week so as to leave time for major political decisions, according to Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN climate body the UNFCCC. Babayev expects talks on the amount of climate financing which will be on the table to continue until the last day of the summit at the end of this week, he said. The Cop presidency has invited former and upcoming Cop hosts the UK and Brazil to advise and "ensure an ambitious and balanced package of negotiated outcomes." Both countries have in the past week communicated more ambitious emissions reduction targets, which have been broadly welcomed. The EU today called for the Cop presidency to step up its role in the process. "We do need a presidency to lead, to steer us in the direction of a safe landing ground," European commissioner for climate action Wopke Hoekstra said. Hoekstra declined to be drawn on the amount of climate financing that the EU would like to see. Developing countries have pushed for a high goal of $1.3 trillion/yr, well above the previous target of $100bn/yr. The EU today reiterated instead its desire for the base of contributor countries to be enlarged beyond the current roster of countries defined as developed under the UNFCCC, and for as much private finance to be mobilised as possible to add to public finance. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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