US propane shipments to offset lower European output
Slow demand growth and limited petrochemical support are highlighting an uncertain outlook for the propane market this year, writes Waldemar Jaszczyk
The European propane market is unlikely to struggle with supply in 2023, with weaker regional import demand and a long global market expected to offset reduced local availability.
The market heads into 2023 with limited support from its traditional demand sources — heating and petrochemicals. Ethylene cracker operating rates have dipped below levels seen at the start of the 2008 financial crisis, as demand for all downstream products has fallen. There are hopes for a petrochemical market bounce, but the mood for early 2023 is pessimistic given macroeconomic worries.
The heating market could become the key driver of delivered large cargo prices to the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, given muted petrochemical sector demand, by taking a larger share of total consumption. But average regional temperatures have been elevated since the start of winter, despite a cold snap in northern Europe in early December. And they have risen to historical highs in parts of mainland Europe in early 2023, including nearly 20°C in Poland, to the alarm of meteorologists. The longer-term weather outlook is uncertain, but the current signs suggest Europe's 2022-23 winter will be well above average.
Large cargo propane prices have subsequently fallen since March 2022, to as low as $510/t on 20 December, ending the year at $544/t, having been above $700/t during the summer. Propane prices have also slumped relative to crude, falling by 30 percentage points to 89pc by the end of 2022 from a year earlier.
Northwest Europe should still attract US propane imports this year despite weak regional prices owing to increasing US production, slowing demand growth in Asia-Pacific and higher freight costs for long-haul shipments. Asia-Pacific's pull on US exports weakened considerably in 2022, as the Chinese petrochemical sector struggled in the face of domestic Covid-19 restrictions and a faltering global economy. Beijing recently eased its zero-Covid policy but this has had limited upside for LPG demand and the continuing pandemic-related challenges in the country should cap any immediate resurgence in import demand.
Worsening delays at the Panama Canal have compounded this issue for US exporters by increasing the cost for exports from the Gulf coast to Asia-Pacific and the journey length. VLGC freight rates hit a seven-year high of $208/t in early December on the Houston-Chiba route from the Gulf coast to Japan, cutting margins for US exporters. Panama Canal delays and freight rates fell at the turn of the year, but congestion and higher shipping costs are likely to continue causing problems in 2023 despite an influx of new VLGCs into the global vessel pool.
Christmas stocking
Stunted demand from Asia-Pacific has collided with higher US output and lacklustre heating demand, allowing US propane stocks to rise to 90mn bl prior to Christmas, almost 28pc above a year earlier. US stocks fell to 80.7mn bl by 30 December after a severe cold storm hit the north of the country, but this was still more than a fifth higher on the year. As a result, northwest Europe has continued to receive an elevated flow of US propane imports despite netbacks to Asia-Pacific regularly being higher since mid-October. European netbacks of $4.75/t in the fourth quarter of 2022 were down from $12/t in the first three months of the year.
But US imports to northwest Europe rose by 48pc from a year earlier to 1.26mn t in the fourth quarter. They stood at 343,000t in December, down by 28pc, but are on course to climb to 600,000t in January, which would be up by 60pc on the year, Vortexa data show. Overall, US imports to northwest Europe increased by 63pc to 5mn t in 2022. This will help Europe offset a growing deficit created by falling upstream output from the North Sea and from the region's refineries owing to high natural gas prices, which are likely to persist.
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Canadian labor board orders rail service to resume
Canadian labor board orders rail service to resume
Houston, 25 August (Argus) — Canada's two Class I railroads avoided a crippling extended work stoppage on Saturday, after an independent labor board upheld the Canadian government's order for the railroads to enter binding arbitration with a labor union representing more than 9,000 rail employees. The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), in two separate orders, directed the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) to enter binding arbitration with the nation's two Class I railroads — Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN). The order heads off an extended work stoppage that would have echoed across North American supply chains for virtually all commodities, from crude, refined products, LPG and coal to fertilizers like potash, as well as consumer and industrial goods. Virtually all railed shipments carried by CN and CPKC came to a grinding halt early on 22 August after months-long talks between the railroads and the TCRC hit an impasse. Later the same day, the Canadian government stepped in to force parties into binding arbitration, but the TCRC said it would not abide by the directive without a ruling from the CIRB. In its rulings, the CIRB ordered CN and CPKC employees represented by the TCRC to resume their duties as of 12:01 am EDT on 26 August and remain "until the final binding interest arbitration process is completed". The CIRB also ruled that no further labor stoppages, including lockouts or strikes, could occur during the arbitration process, effectively voiding a TCRC strike notice issued on 23 August for CN workers set to take effect on 26 August. CN and CPKC said they will comply with the CIRB order, and CPKC asked TCRC employees to return to work on 25 August "so that we can get the Canadian economy moving again as quickly as possible and avoid further disruption to supply chains". The TCRC said it would comply with the CIRB decision, even though it sets a "dangerous precedent". TCRC plans to appeal the ruling in federal court. "The ruling signals to corporate Canada that large companies need only stop their operations for a few hours, inflict short-term economic pain, and the federal government will step in to break a union," TCRC president Paul Boucher said. "The rights of Canadian workers have been significantly diminished today." It could take weeks for Canadian rail operations to return to normal. CPKC said it could take several weeks for its rail network to fully recover from the work stoppage and even longer for supply chains to stabilize. Canadian railroads last week embargoed shipments of toxic materials and earlier this week stopped loading any new railcars. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Union plans new rail strike despite order: Update
Union plans new rail strike despite order: Update
Adds additional comment from Teamsters Canada Rail Conference Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government ordered all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. The union said it moved to strike to "frustrate CN's attempt to force arbitration", and protect workers' rights to collectively bargain. CN had previously sought a federal order for binding arbitration. The government's back-to-work order yesterday sidestepped the collective bargaining process, and "undermined the foundation on which labour unions work to improve wages and working conditions for all Canadians", union president Paul Boucher said today. "Bargaining is also the primary way our union fights for rail safety — all considerations that outweigh short-term economic concerns," Boucher said. The union was more optimistic in its strike notice to CN this morning. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable." It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. Hearings are also underway to address preliminary issues, the union said. But the Teamsters said it was prepared to appeal the case to federal court if necessary. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Union plans new rail strike despite arbitration order
Washington, 23 August (Argus) — The status of rail freight in Canada remains uncertain after a Canadian labor union today issued a new strike notice to Canadian National (CN), less than a day after the federal government forced all parties to participate in binding arbitration. The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) today issued notice to CN that members will go on strike at 10am ET on 26 August. The union had not issued a strike notice to CN earlier this week, but employees could not work yesterday after the CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked them out. "We do not believe that any of the matters we have been discussing over the last several days are insurmountable," the union said today in its notice to CN. It said it would be available to discuss issues to avoid another work stoppage. CN indicated it was frustrated with the union's action. "While CN is focused on its recovery plan to get back to powering the economy, the Teamsters are focused on returning to the picket line and holding the country hostage to their demands," the railroad said. CN last night had begun implementing a recovery plan to restore service . The union has not yet responded to inquiries about its action today. The office of labour minister Steven MacKinnon declined to comment. Rail operations at CN and CP stopped at 12:01am ET on Thursday after the union launched a strike at CPKC and both railroads locked out employees. That action ended late Thursday afternoon with the federal government directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to manage binding arbitration on the railroads. CIRB, an independent agency, has not yet said if it will accept the government's order. CN began moving some freight early on 23 August, but the new strike order issued soon by the union today could disrupt those plans. The union has also challenged the constitutionality of MacKinnon's order regarding CPKC operations pending the outcome of a new ruling by the CIRB. CPKC's rail fleet remains parked in the meantime. CPKC said late Thursday it was disappointed in the minister's decision and sought to meet with CIRB to discuss resumption of service. CPKC said the union "refused to discuss any resumption of service, and instead indicated that they wish to make submissions to challenge the constitutionality of the Minister's direction." A case management meeting with CIRB occurred last night and another was scheduled for early today. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada rail strike ends by forced arbitration: Update
Canada rail strike ends by forced arbitration: Update
Adds comments from railroads, Canadian Propane Association and background. Calgary, 22 August (Argus) — A Canadian rail strike that started early Thursday morning will be short-lived as the federal government stepped in to force the union and two railroads into binding arbitration. The federal government is now directing the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to "assist the parties in settling the outstanding terms of their collective agreements by imposing final binding arbitration," labour minister Steven MacKinnon said Thursday. At 12:01am ET today, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) locked out union members, while the Teamsters Canada Rail conference launched a strike at CPKC . The work stoppage froze ongoing train shipments, even if they have not yet reached their destinations. CN ended its lockout at 6pm ET and initiated its service recovery plan. CN said it is satisfied that the labour action has ended, but it is "disappointed that a negotiated deal could not be achieved at the bargaining table despite its best efforts." CPKC said it would restart operations once it receives orders from CIRB. "Our teams are already preparing for the safe and orderly resumption of our rail network and further details about timing will be provided once we receive the CIRB's order," CPKC said. CPKC chief executive Keith Creel said the railroad regrets that the government had to intervene because he believes in and respects collective bargaining, but "given the stakes for all involved this situation required action." Though the work stoppage lasted less than a day, it may take weeks for rail operations to return to normal. The Canadian railroads last week embargoed shipments of toxic materials and earlier this week stopped loading any new railcars. Instead it focused on delivering already-loaded trains to their destination. Shippers across North America feared the impact of the work stoppages. The Canadian Propane Association today said that for each day that propane is not delivered, there is a sales loss of C$9.82mn and that would rise to $75.2mn after seven days. Labour minister MacKinnon has the authority under section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to mandate the sides return to the bargaining table, a tool the federal government was reluctant to use until now. By Brett Holmes and Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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