S Korea banks on technology in industrial net zero plan

: Emissions, Hydrogen, Metals, Petrochemicals
23/02/27

South Korea has outlined its strategy to achieve carbon neutrality in the industrial sector by focusing on technology solutions, with an aim to cut 120mn t of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.

Representative firms from the four major carbon-emitting industries — chemicals, steel, cement and semiconductor/displays — formed a consortium as part of the country's strategy to promote technology development and signed a business agreement to share development results, the country's trade and industry ministry (Motie) said on 22 February.

These four sectors emit 190mn t, accounting for 72pc of 260mn t of total industrial emissions in 2018. Technology innovation is the only way to cut carbon emissions in these sectors' production processes because of the nature of these industries, Motie said.

Motie expects carbon-neutral technology development projects in the four major industries to cut GHG emissions by about 120mn t by 2050, which is over 50pc of the industrial sectors' GHG reduction target of about 210mn t compared with 2018 levels. Motie has also released a steel industry development strategy, with plans to create a fund to boost low-carbon steel production.

The government and industry plan to spend 80pc of their total budget on demonstration projects so that developed technologies can be immediately commercialised. Tax, financial support and regulatory revisions needed for commercialisation will be provided to maximise technological development.

Three-pronged approach

Firstly, South Korea will secure core technologies needed to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

The country will invest 935.2bn won ($706mn) over 2023-30 to develop carbon reduction technology in the industrial sector, which is a project that had been planned since last year and passed a preliminary feasibility study in October 2022. The project aims to secure core technologies such as naphtha electrolysis furnaces, hydrogen-reduced steel, the substitution of bituminous coal and limestone as raw material in cement manufacturing, as well as low-warming process gas for semiconductors/displays.

A 1mn t/yr demonstration project will be done for hydrogen reduced steel before the commercialisation of 3mn t/yr reactors. There will be a 10 kg/h demonstration reactor for naphtha electrolysis before the commercialisation of a 240 kg/h reactor. For cement mixture there will be a 1mn/yr demonstration firing furnace.

The ministry is also lowering the cash matching ratio for private-sector firm investment to 25pc of the previous ratios of 40-60pc to ease the burden on firms.

Secondly, South Korea will continue to expand investment tax credits for carbon-neutral technology in the industrial sector. There are 48 technologies, including those for hydrogen-reduced steel, included in the list for investment tax reduction and exemption from last year, with 13 more technologies, including those for steel forging and rolling, to be included from February.

The country is also offering special loans, with W147bn from Motie for carbon-neutral projects, W3.5 trillion from the Export-Import Bank of Korea for low-carbon industrial structure promotion programmes and W100bn from Motie for carbon-neutral technology funds.

Lastly, South Korea plans to streamline regulations and enhance institutional support. The country is looking to develop 100 national standards for carbon-neutral technologies.

Participants have pointed out that regulatory-oriented carbon reductions may involve side effects such as "reverse growth" in the manufacturing industry, emphasising that it is a "top priority" for companies to be able to cut carbon emissions through developing technology, according to Motie. Motie minister Lee Chang-yang said "co-operative and fair labour-management relations" are also key to corporate competitiveness, emphasising that the amendment to the labour union law passed on 21 February should be carefully considered in following parliamentary discussions as it may curb corporate management activity.

By Tng Yong Li

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24/12/27

Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — The sale of Netherlands-based OCI's methanol production assets to rival producer Methanex is set to shift the market, with US methanol production most affected by the move. Methanex in the third quarter of 2024 announced the $2bn acquisition, which is expected to close in the first half of 2025. The boards of directors of both companies and OCI's shareholders approved the transaction, but it is subject to regulatory approvals. OCI operates the 1mn t/yr OCI Beaumont plant and is a 50:50 partner in Natgasoline, a 1.7mn t/yr joint-venture plant between OCI and Proman. Methanex operates three plants in the US, all in Geismar, Louisiana. These plants carry a collective 4mn t/yr capacity and represent one-third of total US methanol capacity. At front and center of the acquisition is the Natgasoline plant in Beaumont. Natgasoline, when operational, represents 14pc of domestic production. The plant opened in 2018, and throughout those six years, the plant has seen its share of operational issues. The most recent was a fire at the reformer unit in early October, resulting in a complete shutdown lasting nearly three months. When the deal was announced, Methanex made it clear that the transaction was subject to approvals by OCI shareholders, as well as a pending legal decision between OCI and Proman. "If it is not settled within a certain period, Methanex has the option to carve out the purchase of the Natgasoline joint venture and close only on the remainder of the transaction," the company said in September. Methanex and OCI declined to give further details, as the deal is still pending. Proman did not respond to a request for comment. If it goes through, the acquisition would result in the exodus of OCI from the US methanol market. But the issue of liquidity in the US spot barge market is also looming. Market participants said OCI is a frequent buyer when the Natgasoline plant goes down. In October, when Natgasoline was completely shut down, 340,000 bl of methanol moved for delivery at ITC, the terminal on the Houston Ship Channel where methanol is exchanged, according to Argus data. Market participants expect liquidity to be about the same until some time after the deal closes. When a plant goes down, a producer will emerge in the spot market for purchases. In the longer term, there are some questions around international distribution and where US methanol exports find a home. Methanex is a major exporter to Asia, whereas OCI sells into the European market. The low-carbon methanol sector will also experience some shakeup. OCI is a major participant in the bio-methanol space, selling volume into Europe. Methanex produces carbon-captured methanol, also known as blue methanol, which has not penetrated the EU market. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: PVC expansions loom over US market in 2025

24/12/27

Viewpoint: PVC expansions loom over US market in 2025

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market participants expect some domestic demand growth in 2025, but recent expansions could limit price increases in both the domestic and export markets. Most producers are optimistic PVC demand will grow at a strong rate in 2025, with some expecting growth above 5pc. But producers also caution that greater volume sales may not translate into higher prices because of additional capacity brought on line in the second half of 2024. Formosa added 130,000 metric tonnes (t) of PVC capacity to its Baton Rouge, Louisiana, plant in the third quarter, and Shintech added 380,000t/yr of PVC capacity to its Plaquemine, Louisiana, plant in the fourth quarter. Producers' concerns that higher sales volume would not translate into higher prices have proven true so far. Domestic PVC sales have grown as much as 8pc in the year through November, according to producers, but PVC contract prices in November were unchanged from January at 57.5¢/lb after some fluctuations during the year. Prices fell by 2¢/lb in the months following Formosa's expansion. Contracts for December, which will represent the month following Shintech's expansion, have not yet settled. Buyers have more muted expectations than producers for demand in 2025, further adding to the modest price outlook for the coming year. This is partly because many buyers believe interest rates that recently began to fall will take time to stimulate housing construction, potentially delaying a rise in PVC demand until late 2025 or even 2026. Lower interest rates can reduce homebuilders' borrowing costs and ease mortgage rates for prospective homebuyers. The cautious outlook was already pervasive among PVC buyers and converters before the US Federal Reserve in December reduced its forecast for 2025 interest rate cuts to half a percentage point, down from a full point in the September projections. Reliance on exports US producers may need to rely on exports to absorb the new capacity, a trend that has kept export prices low since August. US PVC export spot prices were at $700/t fas on average in late September after Formosa ramped up its capacity expansion, compared to an average of $750/t fas a year earlier. After Shintech's expansion, export prices fell to $673/t fas on average by late-December, compared to $695/t fas on average during the same time in 2023. While spot export prices initially had a floor of $670/t fas after both expansions, the global environment has become even more competitive at year-end with some overseas producers struggling to move volume, according to traders. A greater reliance on exports at a time when several countries recently implemented anti-dumping duties on US material could make for a difficult market in 2025, with pricing needing to come down to start the year if there is too much volume on hand, traders said. India recently announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on US PVC from 80-150pc, with duties exceeding $300/t for some US producers. Brazil in October raised import taxes on PVC from 12.6pc to 20pc. The European Commission last month confirmed duties on US-origin PVC between 58-71.2pc, and the UK is considering duties from 38.4-56pc. The Indian duties in particular could pose a challenge to US exporters because US producers and traders had become reliant on Indian customers as an outlet for US supply. India is one of the few countries for US exports with steady demand growth. Should US exporters lose market share in India, there are no immediate alternatives to offset that loss. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: California-Quebec carbon faces murky 2025

24/12/27

Viewpoint: California-Quebec carbon faces murky 2025

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — The joint California-Quebec climate market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), is on tenterhooks going into 2025, stymied by rulemaking delays but on the cusp of a more mature phase. Both California and Quebec are eyeing more-stringent future programs and have floated a series of changes over the past year and a half designed to achieve those goals. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is considering moving its program's mandate from the present 2030 target of a 40pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, compared with 1990 levels, to a 48pc reduction to keep the state on target to meet its 2045 goal of net-zero emissions. In line with this increased ambition, CARB will need to remove at least 180mn metric tonnes (t) of allowances from the 2026-2030 auction and allocation annual budgets to start with, and up to 265mn t in total from the program budgets from 2026-2045. CARB has floated other changes , including toughening corporate relationship disclosure requirements, increasing the program's cost-containment allowance price tiers and updating a portion of the program's carbon offset protocols. Quebec has considered removing 17.5mn t of allowances, which correspond to carbon offset uses for compliance in the province over 2013-2020. The Quebec Environmental Ministry proposed to address this by removing these allowances from the province's 2025-2030 auction budgets in a November 2023 workshop. Quebec is also mulling changing the current three-year compliance period to align with statutory 2030 and 2050 GHG targets. But this a move that California, which had discussed similar compliance period changes in April , has not revisited since. Quebec is considering tapering the limit for carbon offset use for compliance in the province by 2030 and transitioning over to a provincial reduction purchase mechanism in 2031, although regulators have not gone in-depth on how a replacement system would function. The WCI rulemakings have been marked by a series of delays over this year, pushing past projections from the end of last year that it would finalize program changes by the second half of 2024. Quebec, which was set to deliver a draft of program amendments in September, rescheduled to early 2025, with implementation expected in spring 2025. While the regulation was nearly complete in late September, the Quebec Environmental Ministry chose to postpone, since it cannot publish before California, said Jean-Yves Benoit, the agency's director general of carbon regulation and emissions data. CARB has signaled it intends to publish its package of rulemaking amendments in early 2025. The agency on 19 December confirmed it expects to "complete and release the regulatory package for a 45-day public comment period" in early 2025 but did not explain the delay. The agency may be waiting for a formal extension of the cap-and-trade program when the legislature resumes on 6 January. California lawmakers have given CARB explicit authority to utilize a cap-and-trade system to reduce GHG emissions out to 2030. CARB maintains it has authority to operate a cap-and-trade program past 2030, but program participants have stressed the need for formal certainty around the program to aid future planning. CARB will begin invoking the post-2030 budgets starting in 2028 for the program's advance auctions. The various delays have compressed the timelines California and Quebec must achieve their statutory target ambitions, making 2025 a potentially pivotal year. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US stainless recovery expected in 1H

24/12/27

Viewpoint: US stainless recovery expected in 1H

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — US finished and scrap stainless steel market participants are cautiously optimistic for 2025 because of low inventories, waning imports and expected policy changes when president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. The stainless steel market expects a challenging early start to 2025 before a rebound later in the first half of the year, as renewed demand from the oil and natural gas sector combines with low inventories and potential Trump policies. US stainless meltshop production in the first half of 2024 totaled just over 1mn metric tonnes (t), up from the atypically low 2023 levels of roughly 940,000t, according to data from World Stainless. These figures are well below prior years with the US averaging about 1.18mn t in the first half of 2021 and 2022. The market has struggled to hit its full stride in 2024 as consistent finished imports and falling nickel prices undercut the market. Flat rolled coil ex works US prices for 304 declined to $1.60-1.77/lb for December shipments, compared with $1.68-1.86/lb a year earlier. Still, this trend could soon stabilize and begin to reverse. Sources estimate US service center finished stainless steel inventory levels for both flat rolled and long bar products are at lows last seen in 2021, a time when US demand was still crimped from the Covid-19 pandemic. Service centers have kept unusually low inventories because of a mix of moderate demand and higher-than-usual interest rates raising end-of-year accounting costs. Weaker service center demand has subsequently capped scrap generation, limiting how low US mills can push their raw material costs for new scrap. Average US stainless steel scrap 304 solids prices have held within a tight 2¢/lb spread of 56.5-58.5¢/lb since early August as falling generation rates ran up against lower demand. The incoming Republican administration has fostered an atmosphere of optimism among market sources, who expect Trump policies will support the domestic industry by cutting oil and gas permitting restrictions, shifting US spending away from overseas investments and broader deregulation of American businesses. Trump has also proposed a myriad of tariffs, including specifically targeting China and the US' largest trading partners — Canada and Mexico. US imports of flat rolled stainless of any size climbed by 22pc to 404,000t in 2024 so far, according to US customs data. Mexico contributed roughly 7pc of these volumes, while Indonesia — home to multiple Chinese stainless mills — contributed 8pc of US imports. By raising import costs, US producers could in theory make up some of this difference. Stainless producers will likely have to raise prices as a result of tariffs, following a year with far fewer base prices adjustments. Long producer Universal Stainless raised base prices only once in 2024 compared to five times in 2023. Nickel-scrap disconnect widens US mills have offset the persistent weak demand by tweaking the nickel payable — the percentage of the price of nickel they are willing to pay for nickel recovered from scrap — each month since April. The nickel payable rate reached a historic low of 42-43pc in 2023, before rebounding. Although up from historic lows, nickel payable has decreased from 57-59pc in March of this year to 50-54pc for procurements in November. At these lower levels scrap is more disconnected from the movements in the nickel market. Some market participants still remain concerned, chiefly over slowing growth in China, which consumes nearly 50pc of the world's nickel. China has ramped up production of nickel largely in Indonesia in recent years to service the growing electric vehicle market. Market conditions in Europe also continue to undercut demand. Spanish stainless producer and owner of US-based North American Stainless, Acerinox, highlighted in its third quarter results that the European manufacturing sector is undergoing a "drastic contraction". It added that while destocking efforts were completed at the time, demand remained weak. By Pete J Stavretis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Indian FeCr to face pressure in 1Q 2025

24/12/27

Viewpoint: Indian FeCr to face pressure in 1Q 2025

Mumbai, 27 December (Argus) — India's ferro-chrome market is expected to remain under pressure in the first quarter because of muted spot demand as a result of sluggish stainless steel consumption. Producers will likely keep ferro-chrome output low in the coming months. The market is widely expected to remain sluggish until after the lunar new year holiday in February. There is little to no optimism that spot liquidity and supplier profit margins will increase in the short term, because demand from the stainless steel industry is weak. Prices for Indian high-carbon ferro-chrome 60pc fluctuated significantly in 2024. Prices hit a high of 120,000-121,000 rupees/t ($1,400-1,415/t) ex-works on 21 February, bolstered by tight ore availability and rising feedstock costs. But weak demand for stainless steel, both locally and globally, kept many market participants on the sidelines, causing prices to fall sharply in April-August, reaching Rs102,000-104,000/t ex-works on 20 August. Prices have since remained around this level, with the Argus assessment on 12 December at Rs104,000-106,000/t. Low demand from the stainless steel sector has effectively removed any possibility of a price recovery in the near term. Spot liquidity has been markedly lower than normal and a rebound is not expected. Volumes signed on long-term contracts for delivery in 2025 have also taken a dip and are at around 70-80pc of the volumes signed in 2023 for 2024 delivery. Weaker ferro-chrome demand and prices have led to lower production. India's ferro-chrome output declined from 1.3mn-1.4mn t in 2023 to an estimated 1.2mn t in 2024, and monthly consumption in the country is estimated to have decreased from 30,000-35,000t to 20,000-25,000t. Consumption is unlikely to rebound significantly until global and local stainless steel demand recovers. Suppliers typically turn to the export market when there is a supply surplus, with exports from India typically accounting for around 50pc of the country's output. But India's ferro-chrome exports are also falling. Shipments declined by 38pc year on year to 402,817t in January-September, compared with 648,475t over the same period a year earlier. Macroeconomic headwinds have dented global demand for stainless steel, and in turn ferro-chrome. European and Chinese demand was high in the first half of 2024 but has slowed significantly since then, with European buyers shifting their focus towards cheaper Kazakh material. Increased freight rates, port congestion and higher production costs have further weighed on exports. In addition, China has increased production and its domestic output now exceeds domestic consumption. This has weighed on domestic prices since August and increased supply in the export market. The market is unlikely to pick up until ferro-chrome inventories at China's port are consumed, a source told Argus . Decreasing demand and prices have made some suppliers' margins negative, forcing some to cut output by 50-60pc and others to shift their focus to producing manganese alloys, which offer stronger margins despite higher production costs. The cost of production for high-carbon ferro-chrome in India is around Rs116,000-119,000/t ex-works. Only producers with their own captive chrome ore mines are making a profit at present, sources said. Indian ferro-chrome suppliers also face issues with deteriorating chrome ore grade, which has led to increased production costs and lower-quality ferro-chrome output. The deterioration in ore quality is particularly evident in state-owned Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auctions — the premium for OMC's 50-52pc ore over its 48-49.99pc ore rose to above Rs1,000/t in early December. The higher premiums for high-grade ore, coupled with the drop in demand, have limited ferro-chrome producers' appetite to participate in OMC's auctions, as supply of high-grade ore is limited and only available at high premiums while low-grade ore is unfavourable as its consumption raises production costs. A lack of interest in OMC's monthly tender boosted this bearish sentiment and created further downward pressure on India's ferro-chrome prices. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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