Shell sets out expected carbon costs, climate risks

: Emissions
23/03/09

Shell expects its costs of compliance with carbon pricing schemes to triple in the coming decade, to a forecast carbon cost exposure of $1.5bn in 2032.

In its 2022 annual report issued today the company recorded around $493mn in costs to comply with the EU emissions trading system (ETS) and "related schemes" in that year. It expects costs to be $800mn this year.

"The lack of net-zero-aligned global and national policies and frameworks increases the uncertainty around how carbon pricing and other regulatory mechanisms will be implemented in the future," Shell said. But the EU ETS is structurally designed to increase the price of emitting over time, as the number of emissions allowances is gradually decreased. The Argus-assessed EU ETS front-year contract averaged €81.21/t ($85.76) of CO2 equivalent in 2022, 52pc higher on the year.

Shell estimated carbon costs up to 2030 based on policy — typically tax or emissions trading schemes. Beyond that, it based estimates on the expected cost of abatement technologies required for 2050, with costs ranging from $125-220/t. The cost of compliance with carbon pricing schemes is a fraction of the company's recent earnings — Shell made a record profit of $41.1bn for 2022.

It spent around $220mn on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in 2022, up from $146mn in 2021, and it had an equity share of captured and stored carbon of around 400,000 t/CO2. Shell is a partner in Norway's Northern Lights CCS project.

Shell reported for 2022 a lower net carbon intensity on the year, with third-party assurance. Net carbon intensity of energy products sold by Shell was 76g of CO2 equivalent/MJ — down by 1.3pc on the year. This was because of an increased proportion of renewable power and consequent reduction in carbon intensity of its power sales. The figure includes 4.1mn t of carbon credits, down from 5.1mn t in 2021.

Climate risks

Shell in its annual report gave outlooks for its gas and upstream assets, based on a variety of scenarios in line with Paris climate agreement goals. These ranged from the top limit of 2°C for global warming that the agreement permits, to more stringent pathways for net zero emissions by 2050. All outlooks resulted in lower recoverable amounts for Shell from its gas and upstream assets.

The potential decline in recoverable amounts ranged from $4bn-6bn for gas assets and $1bn-2bn for upstream assets in scenarios of 1.5-2°C, to $9bn-12bn for gas and $8bn-11bn for upstream assets when set against the IEA's net zero by 2050 scenario. The outlooks used an end-2022 baseline, for which Shell put its gas and upstream assets at $75bn and $88bn, respectively.

Shell also noted "acute risks, such as flooding and droughts, wildfires and more severe tropical storms, and chronic risks, such as rising temperatures and rising sea levels" that could affect its facilities, operations and earnings.

"The frequency of these hazards and impacts is expected to increase in certain high-risk locations," it said.

Shell said there are challenges around forming and reporting climate targets and progress.

"There is no established standard for aligning an energy supplier's decarbonisation targets," it said. Its carbon intensity reduction targets are derived from UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pathways, and reporting is in line with Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) guidelines.

Shell plans to be a net zero emissions company by 2050. It has set an interim target to reduce its absolute scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50pc by 2030, from 2016 levels.

By Georgia Gratton

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24/11/22

Cop: Singapore, Peru finalise carbon credit negotiation

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — Singapore and Peru have concluded negotiations on an implementation agreement for carbon credit co-operation aligned with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The countries "substantively concluded negotiations" on 21 November, said Singapore's ministry of trade and industry. The collaboration is aimed at unlocking additional mitigation activities and scaling solutions to advance both countries' climate ambitions. Under the implementation agreement, a framework for the generation and international transfer of Article 6-compliant carbon credits will be established. The framework will include criteria and procedures for transfer between both countries. Negotiators in Baku appear close to a final agreement on Article 6 , which aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Article 6.2 already allows countries' governments to form bilateral agreements for carbon mitigation projects, the outcomes of which can be traded to contribute towards climate pledges. Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming. "When the agreement is signed, we look forward to the private sector utilising this agreement to develop carbon credits projects to actualise concrete environmental outcomes," said Singapore's minister for sustainability and environment Grace Fu. The minister is also one of the facilitators, alongside New Zealand, for negotiations on Article 6. Singapore also signed an implementation agreement with Zambia on 19 November at the summit. It has multiple carbon credit deals with other countries, but has only signed implementation agreements with Zambia, Ghana and Papua New Guinea so far. Singapore's National Climate Change Secretariat and the world's largest independent carbon credit registries Verra and Gold Standard last week released initial recommendations outlining the development of a carbon crediting protocol to implement Article 6.2. The recommendations are aimed at helping countries to use Article 6 to achieve their UN climate pledges and sustainable development goals, and provides recommendations on how governments can facilitate an effective Article 6.2 market. If such a framework is not established, "countries could take divergent approaches, which could hinder the implementation, scaling and integrity of co-operation under Article 6.2," said Verra. The protocol will be further developed and published once Cop 29 is concluded, said Verra. It will incorporate decisions from Cop 29 and will be implemented in 2025. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil congress approves carbon market legislation

24/11/21

Brazil congress approves carbon market legislation

Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — Brazil's lower house approved the creation of a regulated carbon market, which is seen as an essential tool for the country to meet its emissions reduction targets. The senate approved the bill earlier this month . It now awaits the president's signature to become law. The legislation, which has been the subject of legislative debates for more than three years, creates the Brazilian emissions trading system (SBCE) and stipulates that companies with emissions greater than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e)/yr will be subject to the cap-and-trade system. Companies with emissions from 10,000-25,000 tCO2e/yr will need to report their emissions but will not be required to offset them. The market will help Brazil reach its new nationally determined contribution (NDC), according to vice president Geraldo Alckmin. The new NDC , released earlier this month, stipulates that Brazil will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 67pc from 2005 levels by 2035. Roughly 5,000 companies will be subject to the cap-and-trade system, covering about 15pc of Brazil's emissions, according to finance ministry estimates. The new market will go into effect over a six-year period in five phases. The first phase involves defining the rules that will govern the market, which can take up to two years. In the second phase, companies will be required to measure their emissions, and in the third phase report emissions and present a plan to monitor and reduce them. In the fourth phase, the trading market will begin operating and the first carbon allocation plan will go into effect. In the fifth and final phase, the market will be fully operational. As expected, the agriculture sector was excluded from the regulated market and will not have emissions-reductions targets. The law also exempts waste treatment companies, including sewage treatment and landfill operators if they can demonstrate the use of technologies that neutralize greenhouse gas emissions. The legislation also addresses regulations for the voluntary market, helping finance decarbonization projects in the agriculture and forestry sectors. Brazil has the potential to generate up to $100bn in revenues from the carbon market by 2030, according to a study by think tank ICC Brasil. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

24/11/21

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

24/11/21

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, climate think-tank E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Bndes approves $1.2bn in Climate Fund spending

24/11/21

Brazil's Bndes approves $1.2bn in Climate Fund spending

Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved spending $1.2bn of the Climate Fund in the second and third quarters to finance climate change mitigation projects. The projects that received funding — equal to about 70pc of the fund's total — will prevent 3.3mn metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent/yr, according to Bndes. That would be 16 times more CO2 avoided than the 204,000 t from projects approved in the same period last year. In 2023 the fund released $176mn to 27 projects, most of them being renewable energy projects. The funds will go toward wind energy and biogas projects, urban mobility, bus fleet electrification and light rail transportation, as well as to finance green industries and native forest projects. Interest in developing Brazil's sustainable fuels market is growing, Bndes president Aloizio Mercadante said. "For this reason, we must at least double the resources of the Climate Fund as it is outlined in next year's federal budget," he said. One of several instruments of Brazil's climate change policy, the Climate Fund is linked to the environment ministry and is administered by Bndes. It was created in 2009 and uses resources from oil and natural gas exploration to mitigate and combat climate change. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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