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Carbon pricing needed to reach Al CO2 goals: Rain

  • : Metals, Petroleum coke
  • 23/09/22

Primary aluminium smelters cannot reach their emissions goals without costly technological measures to deal with emissions from carbon anodes, putting the onus on governments to incentivize such investments by putting a price on carbon, petroleum coke calciner Rain Carbon says.

Carbon supply chain and carbon-related process emissions made up more than half of total emissions from a low-carbon aluminium smelter, according to a case study Rain presented last week at the Argus Global Coke and Carbon Conference in Seattle, Washington.

"Achieving net zero for primary aluminium will not be possible without either inert anodes or carbon capture across the supply chain," Rain Carbon technical services director Maia Hunt said in a presentation detailing Rain's analysis to calculate a smelter's full lifecycle emissions. Rain produced the study using details from the Alouette aluminium smelter in Quebec, Canada, and assuming anode raw materials from Rain's Lake Charles, Louisiana, calciner in order to show an end-to-end emissions analysis of a low-carbon aluminium smelting process.

While a smelter like Alouette operating with renewable power can achieve a target of less than 4t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per tonne of aluminium — a standard used by smelters to label certain aluminium products as low-carbon — this only considers direct and indirect emissions, also known as scope 1 and scope 2 emissions, respectively, Rain said. But when considering scope 3 emissions, which are related to supply chains, and thus include coke calcining, meeting this benchmark is much more challenging, according to the calciner.

Rain found that over half of the smelter's "cradle-to-gate" emissions were not related to operating the smelter itself — carbon supply chain and carbon-related process emissions comprised 64pc of total emissions. And anode production, including raw materials calcined petroleum coke (CPC) and coal tar pitch (CTP) and the anode baking, contributed to 21pc of the smelter's overall carbon footprint.

Total carbon raw materials production and transportation amounted to 609kg/t of aluminium, with CPC making up 85pc. This is even when considering that Rain's Lake Charles calciner's carbon emission rate is lower than some other calcination plants, as the plant recovers its waste heat energy, allowing for a 16pc reduction in CPC-related emissions.

But eliminating coke from the aluminium smelting process is a tall order. Carbon anodes that are consumed in the smelting process are an essential feedstock in traditional smelting, but they emit CO2. Inert anodes, which instead emit oxygen, still have a long road ahead before becoming viable at scale in the industry. Existing smelters cannot be retrofitted to use the technology, meaning new smelters would need to be built, requiring significant capital investment, Rain has said.

Calciners need incentives for CCUS

In order to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions while still using carbon anodes, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) would have to be installed across the supply chain. But this technology is currently prohibitively expensive and the costs would prevent calciners and smelters from competing with global competitors that do not make such investments in emissions reduction.

Rain in 2021 conducted a feasibility study on CCUS to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at its calcination plants and determined that "immediate implementation is not realistic as the technology is cost prohibitive". Capital costs to add CCUS technology at the Lake Charles calciner are estimated to exceed $160mn, although the project would be applicable for some tax credits, Rain said.

But if tax credits for CCUS increase substantially, or if an "aggressive carbon pricing policy is adopted by the US government," the technology may become more economically feasible, Rain said in the study. More efficient CCUS technologies could possibly incentivize installation at calciners, as well, the calciner said.

But one additional concern with this approach is whether carbon policies are implemented evenly across the global market.

China is already an "elephant" in the industry, producing about 58pc of the world's aluminium, up from only around 3pc about 20 years ago, Robert Dickie, an independent carbon market analyst, said at the conference. The country is aiming for 45mn t of aluminium production capacity by 2025.

China is on track to increase its share of global aluminium production, in part because Chinese producers face less stringent environmental standards, Dickie said. Chinese producers can cut costs compared with smelters in North America or Europe by using lower-quality CPC with more impurities because of looser environmental standards, making it tougher for western smelters to compete.

The EU, which has already implemented an emissions trading system to put a price on carbon, is now looking to begin a carbon border adjustment mechanism that would add costs for industries importing heavy emissions products like aluminium from countries without carbon emissions limitations, in order to create a level playing field.

"The western companies will have to figure out how to how to participate in that market to make some money," Dickie said.


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25/01/02

Pure green steel costs almost double NW EU HRC price

Pure green steel costs almost double NW EU HRC price

London, 2 January (Argus) — Zero emission hydrogen-fed electric arc furnace-produced crude steel would currently cost almost double the price of northwest EU hot-rolled coil (HRC), according to data launched by Argus today. The opex cost of green hydrogen-fed direct reduced iron/electric arc furnace (EAF) route steel was €1,074/t at the end of December, compared to a northwest EU HRC price of €558.25/t ex-works. That is also €544/t more than the cost of blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BOF)- produced crude steel, showing genuinely green steel would require a much higher finished product price than current blast furnace-based output, assuming a similar cost structure to today. Most current green offerings from EU mills are still produced via the blast furnace, with emissions reductions achieved through mass balancing, offsetting, or by reductions achieved elsewhere in the supply chain. Buy-side desire to pay premiums for this material has been limited, particularly given the downturn in the European market in the second half of 2024. This has contributed to the market for premiums remaining immature, illiquid and opaque, and complicated by the lack of a commonly agreed definition for green steel. Automakers have shown the most interest in greener steel, given their need to reduce emissions from the wider supply chain, as well as vehicle tailpipe emissions. Some automotive sub-suppliers suggest certain mills have been willing to reduce their green premiums to move tonnes — one reported paying a €70/t premium for EAF-based cold-rolled coil for a 2025 contract, but this was not confirmed. Europe's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, said over the second half of last year it would pause its direct reduced iron (DRI) investment decisions ahead of the European Commission's Steel and Metals Action Plan, and as it called for an effective carbon border adjustment mechanism and more robust trade defence measures. Market participants largely agree that natural-gas fed EAF-based production is the greenest form of output currently available to EU mills, substituted with imports of greener metallics and semi-finished steels from regions with plentiful and competitively priced energy. Argus ' new costs show BOF steel is currently just over €31/t more expensive than scrap-based EAF production fed with renewable energy. Europe's comparatively high cost of energy is one key issue for transitioning to DRI/EAF fed production. Last month, consultancy Mckinsey said mills could rely on "green iron" hubs going forward, with iron-making decoupled from production of crude steel, enabling DRI production to be located in regions with low-cost gas and ore, and raw steel production in regions with access to renewable energy. The range of production costs, launched today, include five crude steel making pathways and are calculated using consumption and emissions data provided by Steelstat , in combination with Argus price data, including hydrogen costs. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Gallium nitride to expand into auto industry


25/01/02
25/01/02

Viewpoint: Gallium nitride to expand into auto industry

London, 2 January (Argus) — Gallium nitride (GaN) is already used in power devices for consumer electronics, but manufacturers are now developing the technology for use in the automotive sector, with the compound set to make its way into vehicles in the coming year. GaN semiconductors are currently used in consumer and industrial applications, including alternating current adapters and server power supply units. But use of GaN semiconductors in automotive applications is at an early stage — unlike silicon carbide (SiC) chips, which are increasingly being incorporated into electric vehicle (EV) power electronics. GaN has a similar crystalline structure to silicon but can deliver greater efficiency, faster switching speeds and higher thermal conductivity. Lower resistance, smaller form factors and the ability to operate at higher voltages mean GaN semiconductors consume less power than silicon semiconductors. Integrating GaN into silicon substrates rather than sapphire is opening up new uses for GaN in vehicle power devices and light detection and ranging (LiDAR). GaN is suitable for low and high-voltage applications for EVs, including on-board chargers (OBCs), power inverters and traction motors. US-based semiconductor firms Navitas Semiconductor and Texas Instruments (TI), and Chinese-owned Nexperia have been developing GaN chips for automotive for several years and are now moving quickly into higher voltages. Several manufacturers have now started producing devices and expect to gain traction over the next year. Navitas has been producing GaN devices since 2018 and expects to begin making the product for the automotive industry in 2025. Japan's ROHM Semiconductor in December partnered with the world's largest semiconductor company, Taiwan-based TSMC, to develop and produce GaN power devices for EVs. The companies will integrate ROHM's device development technology with TSMC's GaN-on-Si process technology and provide control integrated circuits to maximise performance. Israeli firm VisIC Technologies is developing GaN products for automotive and industrial uses. It announced plans in December to partner with Austrian automotive technology developer AVL to advance inverter technology for EVs. The firms aim to produce devices that offer higher performance and lower costs at both the device and system level, compared with SiC devices. VisIC's GaN-on-silicon power devices consume less energy during production and can be manufactured in 200mm and 300mm silicon foundries to scale up output. VisIC plans to work with AVL to expand the platform to include 800V power modules — the next generation of EV charging technology. China's Innoscience Technology is developing GaN-on-Si power products and recently launched two 100V automotive-grade devices optimised for LiDAR for advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving applications, as well as DC-DC converters and automotive audio applications. The company has started mass production and is fulfilling batch orders to meet demand. Several manufacturers and foundries are now building out capacity to accommodate commercial-scale output of GaN devices. US-based GlobalFoundries said in early December it has received $9.5mn in federal funding to continue adding new tools, equipment and prototyping capabilities at its Vermont facility, as it moves closer to full-scale manufacturing of its 200mm GaN-on-Si chips. And TI started producing GaN-based power semiconductors at its factory in Aizu, Japan, in October. As the site ramps up, TI's internal capacity will quadruple between its US and Japanese factories. The company has also piloted manufacturing 300mm wafers to increase volumes. Limitations in manufacturing have so far hampered the widespread adoption of GaN in EVs. Cost, supply-chain issues and concerns around thermal management and voltage spikes remain hurdles that manufacturers must overcome. The technology has yet to be proven for automotive applications, which have stringent standards for quality and safety. For this reason, manufacturers are starting with GaN in OBCs and converters to establish confidence. Companies such as Germany's Infineon and Swiss chipmaker STMicroelectronics anticipate there will be room for both SiC and GaN in the automotive sector, depending on the power, efficiency and cost requirements of the application. The availability of gallium compared with silicon may also become a factor as demand increases, given export restrictions out of primary supplier China. By Nicole Willing Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Strong fundamentals to support Nb columbite


25/01/02
25/01/02

Viewpoint: Strong fundamentals to support Nb columbite

London, 2 January (Argus) — Increased demand from the aerospace and defence industries, alongside reduced supply from Brazil, has underpinned a steady increase in niobium columbite prices over the past two years, although further rises could face resistance from smelters switching to ferro-niobium when columbite becomes too costly. Defence and aerospace demand supported prices across the niobium complex throughout last year and are set to continue driving demand this year, owing to continued geopolitical tensions across all regions. Total military spending globally rose to $2.4 trillion in 2023, up by about 6.8pc in real terms from 2022, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show. And figures for last year are expected to increase further as Russia's continued war in Ukraine spurred greater NATO spending, conflict escalated in the Middle East and the Red Sea, and China ramped up military drills around Taiwan. Niobium metal is used in a range of high-temperature alloys in aerospace and defence applications, thanks to its high strength at extreme temperatures. In September last year, the US Department of Defense awarded a $26.4mn grant to major tantalum and niobium producer Global Advanced Metals through the Defense Production Act programme to support the production of high-purity niobium oxides at the company's Pennsylvania plant. One key alloy to which niobium metal is crucial is C-103, used in hypersonic missiles, jet engine afterburners and satellite components. C-103 is made up of 89pc niobium, 10pc hafnium and 1pc titanium. Firm demand for niobium metal has been keenly felt by the columbite market — the raw material — in which prices averaged $18.20/lb cif main port from January-mid-December last year, compared with an overall average of $14.50/lb in the past five years. Columbite prices began to trend higher from late 2022 — before the sustained increase in defence and aerospace demand — bolstered instead by tightened supply. The election of Brazilian president Lula de Silva in October 2022 brought with it a government crackdown on artisanal mining on indigenous lands in the Amazon. While this crackdown has focused chiefly on illegal gold and zinc mining on indigenous lands, niobium columbite market participants have also noted tightened supply and higher prices from the region since the Lula government took office. Furthermore, conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has decreased the supply of tantalite from key mining areas this year. Tantalite and columbite materially are similar, making tantalite a useful source of niobium concentrates to many Chinese smelters. But this lower supply has raised the prices of tantalite with higher niobium content, even while tantalum demand has been slow this year. Looking ahead, market participants expect columbite prices to remain firm throughout this year, supported by a continuation of the fundamentals of the past two years. But further price increases could face resistance from consumers, as smelters could switch to ferro-niobium to avoid higher columbite costs. In the past, smelters in China have made the switch to ferro-niobium when columbite prices climb above $18/lb, often causing increases beyond this level to be short-lived. By Sian Morris Columbite prices, 2022-24 $/lb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Trade war may upend US coke prospects


24/12/31
24/12/31

Viewpoint: Trade war may upend US coke prospects

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — A possible renewed and expanded global trade war in president-elect Donald Trump's second term could lead to retaliatory tariffs from the US' major petroleum coke export destinations, pressuring US Gulf coast coke prices and adjusting trade flows. Trump campaigned on plans to impose tariffs of up to 60pc on imports from China , reviving memories of his trade policies in 2018 and 2019 that chilled coke trade with the country. He has also threatened to add 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and up to 20pc on imports from all other countries. It is far from certain Trump will follow through on all his tariff threats once he does take office, or that they will be as large as he has promised. But if he does, China could repeat its retaliatory response to the prior Trump tariffs. And if other countries join in on those retaliatory measures, US coke exporters could face even more challenging conditions than in the past. First term fight In June 2018, the Trump administration announced plans for a 25pc tariff on what was then $34bn/yr of Chinese imports. Later that month Beijing retaliated, announcing a punitive 25pc tariff on US exports of fuel and calcined coke, thermal and coking coal and many other products. Total tariffs on greater-than-3pc-sulphur green coke, the US' largest grade exported to China, ultimately reached 33pc. The dueling tariffs led to significant shifts in US Gulf high-sulphur coke markets. Green coke exports from the US Gulf coast to China dropped by nearly 60pc year over year in 2018 to 638,000t, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data, as no US Gulf coke shipments loaded for China from July-October. US Gulf export volumes to China stayed nearly flat in 2019 before surging back to 1.8mn in 2020 after China began issuing exemptions for its green coke tariff . US Gulf high-sulphur coke prices also started to fall sharply late in the third quarter of 2018 after China's retaliatory tariff came into effect in late August , while Indian and Turkish demand also fell. The average price of US Gulf 6.5pc sulphur coke dropped significantly in 2019, down by $27/t year over year. US coke exports to other countries were also hurt during that time. Turkey imposed a tariff on US-origin coke imports in 2018 after Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports. US Gulf coke exports to Turkey fell by almost 50pc in 2019 compared with the year prior. Although some analysts think it is unlikely China will retaliate to tariffs as aggressively as it did during the first Trump term, Beijing would likely still target select industries. Coke could be high on this list, as these tariffs are still officially in effect and the government could easily withdraw the exemptions it has issued since 2020. A wider battlefront Trump's threat to issue tariffs against other countries in his second term, including 25pc tariffs on imports from top US trading partners Mexico and Canada, could lead to even more challenges. Already, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum have indicated that they could retaliate if the US goes through with Trump's plans. While Canada has only taken about 800,000 t/yr of US coke since 2021, Mexico has been a large consumer. The US' southern neighbor has been the fourth-largest offtaker of US Gulf coast coke so far this year. It was the largest in 2018 and 2021 and second-largest in 2019 and 2020, helping to absorb some of the lost demand from China, alongside India, Brazil, Turkey and Italy. India has typically been the biggest offtaker of US Gulf coke in recent years, and it has increased its share of US Gulf exports to 24pc in January-October of this year from 14pc in 2022. This step-up in US coke shipments to India followed a significant drop in China's higher-sulphur fuel coke demand over the past two years, especially since the government began signaling in late May that it would limit its consumption , as well as an increase in Indian cement makers' use of coke in their kilns . While India is likely to absorb even more US Gulf coke if Chinese demand declines further, India already took 20pc more of this coke in 2023 than it did in 2019. This suggests that new buyers may have to come into the market for the potential overhang in next year's US Gulf coast supplies to be worked down. This will only occur if US coke remains at a wide discount to coals from countries like South Africa, Australia and Indonesia in order to encourage more coal consumers to make the switch to coke. If a wider trade war results in India implementing tariffs on US coke, sellers might prefer to sell to other destinations, particularly in the Atlantic basin, rather than discounting coke deeply enough to draw more Indian demand. No help from Europe But while European countries like Italy, Spain, France and Greece were top importers of US Gulf coke in 2018 and 2019 when Chinese demand dropped, these countries are not as well-positioned to absorb more coke now. Cement makers in the region have invested in alternative fuels over the last few years as the EU Emissions Trading System has increased the price of carbon emissions, lowering their overall appetite for fossil fuels. The US exported 31pc less coke to Europe in 2023, at 4.4mn t, than it did in 2018, at 6.4mn t. By Hadley Medlock and Lauren Masterson Top USGC coke export destinations 2017-2020 mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans


24/12/30
24/12/30

Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans

Washington, 30 December (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump's re-election is sparking uncertainty in the US' synthetic graphite battery sector, with companies worried about a possible halt to government finance and a weaker outlook for domestic demand. "With Trump being elected president, everything's up in the air," one industry source said. Battery materials companies expecting to receive government funding to build plants in the US could see their prospects dim with Trump coming into office , since these companies need the federal grants to compete with China, a second source said. Trump on the campaign trail said he would rescind all unspent funds in President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and scrap Environmental Protection Agency tailpipe standards, which he called an electric vehicle (EV) "mandate". The Biden administration is racing to try and secure projects set to be funded by the IRA. On 16 December, US battery materials producer Novonix received a conditional loan for up to $754mn for a new synthetic graphite plant from the US Department of Energy (DOE). If finalised, the loan would be used to build a new 31,500 t/yr synthetic graphite plant in Tennessee by the end of 2028. DOE previously awarded Novonix a $100mn grant and a $103mn tax credit to expand capacity at its Tennessee plant to 40,000 t/yr by 2025 and 150,000 t/yr by 2030. DOE on 16 December also closed on its up to $9.6bn loan to South Korean battery manufacturer SK On for the construction of three battery plants in the US, the largest loan ever awarded under its Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Program. DOE also in September selected SKI US , part of India-based Birla Carbon, to receive $150mn build a 25,000 t/yr synthetic graphite production plant in South Carolina. Some in Trump's orbit have warned they will review contracts they view as hastily pushed out before the former president takes office . But some Republicans are likely to oppose full repeal of the IRA, since the bill funds projects in their districts. And Republicans will hold a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Even if Republicans do not repeal the IRA or other EV subsidies like tax credits, the uncertainty surrounding the new administration's support could be a stumbling block. "Who's going to put half a billion dollars into a battery plant right now when you don't have certainty on the push for EVs?" the first source said. Battery projects require huge amounts of investment. Swedish battery maker Northvolt obtained record venture capital investment for a European start-up at $15bn. But on 21 November, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US , in part because of difficulties "bridging financing between different stakeholders", outgoing chief executive Peter Carlsson said. The company had already closed down its R&D facility in the US and put plans for factories in Canada, Germany and Sweden on hold. Its financial woes intensified after the Swedish government declined to invest. Other European governments have already reduced financial support for EVs, more for spending reasons than policy, which has softened demand in the region. France recently changed eligibility requirements for subsidies , and Germany ended its subsidy late last year. Some companies, like Norwegian battery materials company Vianode, have been planning multi-billion dollar investment programmes to expand their reach in the automotive industry throughout North America and Europe. It is not clear if Trump's election will have an effect on these plans. Vianode opened its first anode graphite production plant, Via One, in Herøya, Norway, in October. The plant will have a capacity of 2,000 t/yr, enough to supply 30,000 EVs annually, according to Vianode. Chinese firms have scaled up production of key battery materials at all stages of the supply chain, creating more competition for European and US producers. Chinese producers dominate the global EV market with about 70pc of market share, even as the EU and US have put policies in place to try to support their domestic industry. China's lithium-ion battery exports to the US jumped in November as suppliers looked to get ahead of potential new tariffs. The Trump administration is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries to as much as 60pc in the coming few months after Biden earlier this year lifted them to 25pc from 7.5pc. This could help support US-based battery plants. But tariffs on Chinese goods could also present additional challenges, as the raw materials for synthetic graphite often have some Chinese components. Needle coke, traditionally the main raw material for synthetic graphite used in battery anodes, is not widely produced outside of China. And while companies in China have been researching options for using a wider range of petroleum coke qualities , specifications are still relatively narrow, with battery companies in China absorbing most of the world's suitable coke . One graphite anode plant in Europe has been struggling to procure petroleum coke, according to a market participant. Sourcing coke for synthetic graphite in Europe and other ex-China locations is likely challenging, as most of these refineries and calciners have tied up their supply in long-term commitments, one producer said. Refineries are also reducing coke production, as the required feedstocks have become more costly. By Lauren Masterson and Hadley Medlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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