Record US crude exports to Europe power tanker rally

: Crude oil, Freight
23/11/01

A torrent of crude flowing from the US Gulf coast to Europe in October helped midsize tanker rates triple in the span of a month as seasonal US refinery maintenance and record oil output made more crude available to export.

Europe-bound crude departures from the US Gulf coast climbed to a record 2.2mn b/d in October, according to preliminary data from analytics firm Vortexa, up by 300,000 b/d from September and up 600,000 b/d on the year. At the end of the month, the Suezmax rate to Europe hit an 11-month high of $4.45/bl for WTI, and the Aframax rate to Europe hit a six-month high of $6.25/bl for WTI,according to Argus data.

Over the same time, Europe-bound crude departures from Brazil and Guyana ticked lower from September by 4pc and 8pc to about 375,000 b/d and 195,000 b/d, respectively, according to Vortexa.

Fall maintenance season kept US refinery utilization at 86pc of capacity in the four weeks ended 27 October, according to the US Energy Information Administration, making more crude available for export. US crude production held at a record high through the first four weeks of October at 13.2mn b/d, according to EIA data.

Additional export support came from European onshore crude inventories, which were the lowest level in at least four years at about 455mn bl on 30 October, Vortexa data show.

Spot assessments for prompt delivering WTI to Europe hit an 11-month high on 5 October of $3.05/bl above North Sea Dated, providing plenty of incentive for speculative traders to buy on an fob basis and sell to European buyers, despite rising fob costs on an Ice Brent basis. Also, the Dated-to-Frontline swap — which measures the premium of North Sea Dated to Ice Brent futures — rose to a 14-month high of $2.58/bl on 28 September and remained close to that level through early October.

Europe's increasing reliance on WTI follows EU sanctions placed last December on Russia, previously the continent's biggest supplier of crude. Since then, European refiners have had to source their crude from farther afield, exerting upward pressure on freight rates. Ton-mile demand in October for Europe's crude imports was up by 5.7pc from October 2022, prior to the sanctions, and up by 28pc from October 2021, before the war in Ukraine, according to Vortexa data.

Through October this year, the US has been the biggest crude supplier to Europe, sending about 1.7mn b/d, equivalent to 17pc of the continent's imports, Vortexa data show.

By Calder Jett and Tray Swanson

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24/12/20

US House votes to avert government shutdown

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly today to extend funding for US federal government agencies and avoid a partial government shutdown. The Republican-controlled House, by a 366-34 vote, approved a measure that would maintain funding for the government at current levels until 14 March, deliver $10bn in agricultural aid and provide $100bn in disaster relief. Its passage was in doubt until voting began in the House at 5pm ET, following a chaotic intervention two days earlier by president-elect Donald Trump and his allies, including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk. The Democratic-led Senate is expected to approve the measure, and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it. Trump and Musk on 18 December derailed a spending deal House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump lobbied for a more streamlined version that would have suspended the ceiling on federal debt until 30 January 2027. But that version of the bill failed in the House on Thursday, because of opposition from 38 Republicans who bucked the preference of their party leader. Trump and Musk opposed the bipartisan spending package, contending that it would fund Democratic priorities, such as rebuilding the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. But doing away with that bill killed many other initiatives that his party members have advanced, including a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. Depending on the timing of the Senate action and the presidential signature, funding for US government agencies could lapse briefly beginning on Saturday. Key US agencies tasked with energy sector regulatory oversight and permitting activities have indicated that a brief shutdown would not significantly interfere with their operations. But the episode previews potential legislative disarray when Republicans take full control of Congress on 3 January and Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Extending government funding beyond 14 March is likely to feature as an element in the Republicans' attempts to extend corporate tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025, which is a key priority for Trump. The Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate next month, but their hold on the House will be even narrower than this year, at 219-215 initially. Trump has picked two House Republican members to serve in his administration, so the House Republican majority could briefly drop to 217-215 just as funding for the government would expire in mid-March. Congress will separately have to tackle the issue of raising the debt limit. Conservative advocacy group Economic Policy Innovation Center projects that US borrowing could reach that limit as early as June. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US government agencies set to shut down

24/12/20

US government agencies set to shut down

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — US federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail permitting and regulatory services if no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET to extend funding for the government. US president-elect Donald Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — on 18 December upended a spending deal US House of Representatives speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump endorsed an alternative proposal that Johnson put together, but that measure failed in a 174-235 vote late on Thursday, with 38 Republicans and nearly every Democrat voting against it. Trump via social media today indicated he would not push for a new funding bill. "If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration, not after January 20th, under 'TRUMP,'" he wrote. There was little to indicate as of Friday morning that Trump, Republican congressional leadership and lawmakers were negotiating in earnest to avert a shutdown. The House Republican conference is due to meet in the afternoon to weigh its next steps. President Joe Biden said he would support the first funding deal that Johnson negotiated with the Democratic lawmakers. "Republicans are doing the bidding of their billionaire benefactors at the expense of hardworking Americans," the White House said. Any agreement on funding the government will have to secure the approval of the House Republican leadership and all factions of the Republican majority in the House, who appear to be looking for cues from Trump and Musk on how to proceed. Any deal would then require the support of at least 60 House Democrats to clear the procedural barriers, before it reaches the Senate where the Democrats hold a majority. The same factors will be in play even if the shutdown extends into early 2025. The Republicans are set to take the majority in the Senate when new Congress meets on 3 January. But their House majority will be even slimmer, at 219-215, requiring cooperation of Democratic lawmakers and the Biden administration. What happens when the government shuts down? Some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy, which includes the Energy Information Administration and its critical energy data provision services, expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. The Interior Department's shutdown contingency plan calls for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to furlough 4,900 out of its nearly 10,000 employees. BLM, which is responsible for permitting oil, gas and coal activities on the US federal land, would cease nearly all functions other than law enforcement and emergency response. Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which oversees offshore leases, would continue permitting activities but would furlough 60pc of its staff after its funding lapses. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will keep processing some oil and gas exploration plans with an on-call group of 40 exempted personnel, such as time-sensitive actions related to ongoing work. The shutdown also affects multiple other regulatory and permitting functions across other government agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture, Transportation and Treasury. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: More changes for Dated crude benchmark ahead

24/12/20

Viewpoint: More changes for Dated crude benchmark ahead

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Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

24/12/19

Trump backs new deal to avoid shutdown: Update

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US Congress passes waterways bill

24/12/19

US Congress passes waterways bill

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