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Venezuela optimistic despite diluent, power challenge

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 23/11/27

Venezuelan energy production has risen to 850,000 b/d of oil and 4.5 Bcf/d of natural gas since the lifting of US sanctions a year ago, but obstacles remain, top industry officials told Argus last week.

The short-term production goal is 1mn b/d, Venezuelan vice minister for hydrocarbons Erick Perez said on the sidelines of a Venezuela oil chamber conference in Caracas, but it depends heavily on a steady flow of diluent to blend with extra heavy oil from the Orinoco region.

"Once we can have it in volume and quality, the goal is achievable," Perez said.

Venezuela produced roughly 680,000 b/d of crude a year ago, according to Argus estimates.

US producer Chevron has been bringing in more cargoes of naphtha and condensate for state-owned oil company PdV to use as diluent, according to shipping data, but the industry needs more, Perez said. Shipments from Iran, which provided a lifeline in recent years when US sanctions were in full force, have all but disappeared.

Venezuela is now receiving an average of $65/bl for its oil, Perez said. Venezuela has stopped officially reporting its crude basket prices, but sources last year estimated it was receiving about $60/bl.

Unreliable power service also remains an issue, particularly in Zulia state, Perez said. Any small fluctuation in power can curtail oil well operations.

But overall oil and gas production has increased in 2023, in large part because of the White House relaxing many of the sanctions imposed during the administration of former US president Donald Trump, allowing Chevron to resume work on its four joint ventures (JVs) with PdV.

The Petro Piar JV in the Orinoco is producing about 80,000 b/d, according to Perez. Petro Independencia, also in the Orinoco, is producing around 25,000 b/d. In Zulia state, the Petro Boscan JV is now at 60,000 b/d — or 65,000 b/d on a good day, according to Perez — while the Petro Independiente JV is at 3,000 b/d.

Perez declined to comment on reports from sources that Chevron is seeking to exit Independiente.

"In Zulia we have managed to open a closed field, Boscan, and that is crude that Chevron is placing in the North American market," Perez said.

And natural gas that was once flared is now being produced and sold, PdV vice president for gas Luis Gonzalez said.

For many in Venezuela's oil industry the turnaround since last year is both surprising and encouraging, as the four JVs that were practically mothballed a year ago are now sending thousands of barrels per day to the US. "I for one can't believe it's been a year already," oil chamber president Enrique Novoa told Argus. "We just hope that this business model [with Chevron] can be applied in other associations."

Offshore Eni and Repsol operations at the Cardon IV project are producing 580mn cf/d gas and 17,000 b/d of much-needed condensates.

"And we are carrying out a seismic-data offshore project that could put us in fifth place of proven natural gas reserves, worldwide," Gonzalez said.


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US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes


25/01/03
25/01/03

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes

Some Republicans worry that their razor-thin House majority could soon see their caucus fractured, writes Chris Knight Washington, 3 January (Argus) — The new Republican majority in US Congress has set its sights on passing legislation to grow energy production, unwind climate policies and cut trillions of dollars in taxes, but doing so will require the party to overcome its history of infighting. That disharmony was on display last month, when Republicans in the House of Representatives nearly forced a government shutdown by scuttling a spending deal negotiated by their own leaders. Similar dynamics have been at play for the past two years, as rifts over how to govern made it difficult for House Republican leaders to use a tiny majority to extract policy concessions during negotiations. The first test of party unity in the 119th Congress — sworn in on 3 January — will come as House Republicans vote on whether to re-elect Mike Johnson as speaker with an even smaller majority than last year. Johnson can only afford to lose a handful of votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him, before Republicans risk a repeat of 2023, when far-right members ousted the last speaker but could not agree on a replacement for weeks. A lengthy voting impasse could delay the 6 January certification of the election victory of president-elect Donald Trump, who this week endorsed Johnson. Trump campaigned on passing legislation to allow industry to "drill, baby, drill" by increasing federal oil and gas lease sales, removing regulations and unwinding parts of outgoing president Joe Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among the options are rescinding a fee on methane emissions that started at $900/t, and requiring more oil and gas lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico. On taxes, Trump has proposed extending $4 trillion in cuts due to expire at the end of 2025, in addition to cutting corporate rates to as low as 15pc from 20pc, rescinding clean energy credits, and putting a 20pc tariff on all imports. Other items on Congress' to-do list include passing legislation to fund the government and raising the statutory limit on federal debt. Republicans also say they want to pass a bill to expedite federal permitting, after a bipartisan effort to do so failed to advance in December. Learning to two-step Republican leaders have floated a two-step plan to pass Trump's legislative agenda that would use "budget reconciliation" — a legislative manoeuvre that will prevent a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, but which limits the bill to provisions that will affect the federal budget. Senate majority leader John Thune, a Republican from Texas, has suggested packaging immigration, border security and energy policy into a first budget bill that would pass early this year. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and far more complex — budget bill that would focus on taxes and spending. But some Republicans, mindful of a slim 220-215 House majority that will temporarily shrink because of upcoming vacancies, worry the two-part strategy could fracture the caucus. Republicans have yet to decide the changes to the IRA, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans last year said they opposed a "full repeal" of the law, which disproportionately benefits districts represented by Republicans. Republicans plan to use their expanded influence to push changes at all levels of government and the work it supports. Incoming Republican chairman of the Senate energy committee John Barrasso has issued a report urging OECD energy watchdog the IEA to revive the inclusion of a "business-as-usual" reference case in its annual World Energy Outlook. Barrasso says the IEA has lost its focus on energy security and instead become a "cheerleader" for the energy transition. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eni ready for FID on Mozambique’s Coral Norte FLNG


25/01/03
25/01/03

Eni ready for FID on Mozambique’s Coral Norte FLNG

London, 3 January (Argus) — Italian energy firm Eni is ready to take a final investment decision (FID) on its planned 3.4mn t/yr Coral Norte floating liquefaction (FLNG) terminal in Mozambique, should the project receive authorisation from the country's government, the firm has told Argus . Eni said it expects the government's approval to be "imminent", although it did not provide a more detailed timeline. The firm said in June 2023 that it planned to start operations at the FLNG in the second half of 2027. Eni already operates Mozambique's 3.4mn t/yr Coral Sul FLNG, which started operations in late 2022 and is at present the country's only LNG terminal. Coral Norte is set to be installed 20km north of Coral Sul. There are also two onshore terminals planned for Mozambique — the TotalEnergies-led 13.1mn t/yr Mozambique LNG project and ExxonMobil's 18mn t/yr Rovuma LNG project. Both are located in the Cabo Delgado province and have been halted because of security concerns. TotalEnergies reached a financial close on their Mozambique project in 2019 and declared force majeure in 2021, though project partner Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) said in late October 2024 the force majeure could be lifted in January or February this year because of an improvement in the security situation. And ExxonMobil said in November last year it was planning to take FID on the Rovuma project at the start of 2026. By Cerys Edwards Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US sour values poised to maintain support


25/01/03
25/01/03

Viewpoint: US sour values poised to maintain support

Houston, 3 January (Argus) — US sour crude prices are poised to maintain recent highs if increased US Gulf coast refinery runs continue to meet market expectations of a tight market. US Gulf medium sour Mars is averaging a near 30¢/bl premium to the Nymex-quality WTI benchmark for the February US trade month to date, and held a roughly 65¢/bl premium during the January trade month, the highest level since July. January Mars averaged around $2.40/bl below March Ice Brent, marking its narrowest average discount to Ice Brent two months forward since the August trade month. US Gulf sours reached multi-year highs on 18 December supported by tight supply and high demand. Refinery runs have increased with improving margins, tightening the supply of sour crude in the US and further boosting differentials. Refinery runs nationwide rose last week by 39,000 b/d to 17mn b/d but were 89,000 b/d lower than the same week in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Companies were also heard short-covering US sours in an already tight market, likely exacerbated by end-of-year inventory drawdowns for tax purposes. Recent higher prices follow much lower relative values for Mars starting in the fall when refinery runs fell because of unfavorable margins, maintenance and US Gulf coast hurricane-related outages combined with lower export demand. Mars exports have been limited by competitive Middle Eastern term pricing for shipments to Asia-Pacific and European destinations, despite the continuation of Opec+ production cuts tightening supply. Also, blending has emerged in China for TMX-sourced Canadian heavy crude with light Murban as a Mars replacement . Offshore pipeline maintenance in October also pushed typically Texas-delivered volumes over to the Louisiana Gulf coast, adding pressure to the medium sour crude market in the region. But increased US Gulf refinery demand is leading to higher heavy Canadian crude prices at the US Gulf coast, alongside support from Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline exports and higher US midcontinent refinery demand tightening supply. Western Canadian Select (WCS) Houston averaged around a CMA Nymex -$4.00 for January trade. The January WCS Houston discount to Mars averaged about $4.60/bl but was inside $4/bl for November and December volumes. The higher Canadian crude prices are making it less economical for US refiners to blend heavy low-TAN imports with Permian WTI as a cheaper alternative substitute for Mars or other medium sours. Tax-related end-of-year inventory draw downs had tightened the market heading into the new year, but this was exacerbated by the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) being slated to receive 2.5mn bl of domestic sour crude deliveries in the first three months of 2025 . However, LyondellBasell's plan to begin shutting down its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery starting in January and stop refining crude completely by the end of the first quarter will reduce Gulf coast sour demand. Between May and September, the facility imported just under 200,000 b/d on average, with roughly 80pc being Canadian and Colombian sour crudes. Offshore US Gulf production is also expected to increase, which could ease a tight market and weigh on differentials. Chevron brought production from its 75,000 b/d Anchor platform into the Mars system in 2024, while Southern Louisiana Intermediate (SLI) and Texas-delivered SGC and HOOPS flows will receive crude from new facilities in the coming year. But EIA forecasts show total US Gulf production essentially flat from 2023 as new output is offset by natural declines. Other price-influencing factors in the coming year are less certain. Concerns surrounding the potential impact of US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose a 25pc tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico have bolstered sour crude prices in the US over recent weeks. Additionally, US medium sour crudes have been supported by Opec production cuts, with the recent decision to delay unwinding those cuts yet again, adding to the January value boost. The next Opec and Opec+ meetings are scheduled for 28 May. By Mykah Briscoe and Amanda Smith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Med may take more Mideast crude in 2025


25/01/03
25/01/03

Viewpoint: Med may take more Mideast crude in 2025

London, 3 January (Argus) — The Mediterranean region's capacity to absorb returning sour crude output in 2025 will hinge on nimble pricing strategies by Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Mediterranean imported around 4.67mn b/d of crude in 2024, down from 4.92mn b/d in 2023, Vortexa data show. The drop follows heavy spring refinery maintenance, unplanned refinery outages and weak product margins that prompted some refiners in the region to cut crude runs. But competitive pricing by Mideast Gulf crude producers could help entice Mediterranean buyers during the seasonal uptick in demand for transport fuels this summer, and the scheduled completion of repairs at Motor Oil Hellas' 180,000 b/d Corinth refinery in Greece in the third quarter could help absorb a planned production increase from Opec+. Eight Opec+ members ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman ꟷ agreed last month to postpone the return of 2.2mn b/d of production cuts for a third time to April 2025. They now intend to return this over an 18-month period rather than the previously planned 12-month period. Saudi Arabia has accounted for 1mn b/d of this 'voluntary' production cut since July 2023, but Saudi crude deliveries to the Mediterranean still edged up to 241,000 b/d in 2024, from 238,000 b/d in 2023. State-controlled Aramco's consistent cuts to its formula prices in recent months left its December 2024 prices for Mediterranean customers on average $2.13/bl cheaper than its January 2024 prices. Comparatively, Aramco's Mediterranean formula prices rose on average by nearly $5/bl across 2023 when sour crude was in short supply but demand was higher. This adaptive pricing strategy has helped Aramco retain market share in the Mediterranean at a time of overall weaker demand. Deliveries of Iraq's Basrah crude to the Mediterranean region declined by 27pc on the year to average 409,000 b/d in 2024, largely due to longer journey times around South Africa to avoid Yemen-based Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. But Mediterranean interest in 2025 could increase should Basrah be forced out of Asia-Pacific, where Canada's Trans Mountain Expansion has enabled increased Chinese purchases of Canadian heavy sour Cold Lake and Access Western Blend, which require lighter crudes for blending. The EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude has cut off Europe's access to medium sour Urals, with the exception of non-EU member Turkey. Northwest European buyers can turn to Norway's Johan Sverdrup grade but Mediterranean buyers have been left without a local medium sour crude since Kirkuk exports, from Turkey's Ceyhan port, were halted in March 2023 by a dispute between Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Even if Kirkuk exports resume in the coming months, it is unclear if these will return to previous levels of around 500,000 b/d, given upstream challenges in Iraqi Kurdistan and Iraq's Opec+ commitments. In the absence of local rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iraq are well poised to direct more supply into the Mediterranean, with competitive pricing. Aramco's ability to ship from Egypt's Mediterranean Sidi Kerir port has increased its appeal as it delivers supplies within days. Rebuilding confidence in Libya Libya's recent two-month blockade, sparked by a leadership crisis at the central bank, again shone a light on the country's fragile politics. Although output has recovered since force majeure ended on 3 October, confidence in Libya's ability to reliably supply crude has waned, diminishing its appeal in an oversupplied market. Spot assessments for Libya's largest grade, Es Sider, averaged a $1.46/bl discount to the North Sea Dated benchmark in November, and state-owned NOC set the grade's November formula price at a $2.25/bl discount for term customers. Both were the lowest since December 2022, as sellers aimed to entice buyers and allay reliability concerns. But Libyan production has proven resilient over the past decade, quickly rebounding after armed conflict and several politically-motivated disruptions. NOC reported crude and condensate output at a near 12-year high of 1.4mn b/d in early December. By the end of last month, the company said it had increased to 1.47mn b/d. And foreign producers are still keen on the country, with Italy's Eni, BP, Austria's OMV and Spain's Repsol resuming exploration campaigns , the first since 2014. By Melissa Gurusinghe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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