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Energy, finance deals key to pivotal Cop 28 success

  • : Biofuels, Coal, Condensate, Crude oil, Hydrogen, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 23/12/05

Agreements that address the role of fossil fuels and payments for loss and damage will be needed if the summit is to succeed, writes Caroline Varin

Success at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai this month will be defined by how strong a signal global leaders are ready to send on energy and finance. Whether the meeting is the pivotal event that many are hoping for may depend on the outcome of talks over two sticking points — the role of fossil fuels and who will pay for loss and damage incurred from the effects of climate change.

The stakes are higher than ever this year. A UN report shows that global temperatures are on course to rise to 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels, and could rise by 3°C this century if efforts on mitigation — cutting emissions — stay the same as today. The Paris climate agreement sets a goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial averages, and preferably to 1.5°C.

Pressure is mounting for Cop 28 to agree on an ambitious energy package to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, and support to include a phase-out of all fossil fuels is gathering.

Cop 27 last year reiterated language adopted at Cop 26 for a "phase-down" of unabated coal-fired power, despite a push from 80 countries to include language around phasing down all fossil fuels. But there has been a shift in rhetoric this year. Cop 28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber is calling for a "responsible phase-down of all fossil fuels", and support is growing from the EU, the US, fossil fuel producers such as Canada and Australia, and vulnerable and developing countries.

But a lack of a united line on fossil fuel language — phase-out or phase-down, unabated or all — means that debates risk getting stuck on details, while key producers, including Russia, Mideast Gulf and African countries, and consumer China have signalled they would not support a phase-out. Some want a focus on cutting fossil fuel emissions instead and are seeking support for abatement technologies.

Decisions at Cop are rooted in countries' economies, think-tank E3G programme lead Leo Roberts says. At Cop 26, "countries felt comfortable backing [coal phase-down language] because it reflected a real-world trend, in which economics are firmly stacked against coal power". But "the same shifts are not happening on oil and gas", Roberts says. Coal, oil and gas production in 2030 is the level needed to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C, according to the UN. Observers hope to see progress on coal, with calls from the US to end foreign financial support for coal-fired power plants. Global coal use continues to hit fresh highs and coal-fired power capacity is still growing.

Times tables

UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres reiterated his call for countries to commit to phasing out fossil fuels with a clear timeline, as well as tripling renewables capacity and doubling energy efficiency. Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43pc and methane by a third by 2030 in order to not exceed the 1.5°C limit, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says.

G20 leaders have agreed to pursue tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 from 2019, and reaching a deal on this is one of al-Jaber's key goals. He is keen for parties to "build on the outcomes of the G20", but a deal could hinge on whether developing countries get the assurances they need on funding. Investment in Africa's energy sector needs to more than double to more than $200bn/yr by 2030 for the continent to meet its energy-related climate goals, the IEA says.

The world's two biggest emitters, the US and China, this month reaffirmed their 2021 agreement to co-operate on reducing power sector carbon emissions, cutting methane emissions and boosting renewable energy. This sent a positive signal, as strained US-China relations have weighed on co-operation for the energy transition. China unveiled a methane plan. And progress towards a 2021 global methane pledge could come from the US or the EU. Brussels recently agreed a law setting methane limits for fossil fuel imports from 2030. Al-Jaber — who is also chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil company Adnoc — is working with the oil and gas industry for it to commit to halving oil and gas industry Scope 1 and 2 emissions — those from producing, transporting and processing oil and gas — and reaching near-zero methane emissions by 2030. "This could be important, but only if companies beyond the usual suspects adopt aggressive methane reduction targets," research organisation WRI energy director Jennifer Layke says. Methane emissions from human activities could rise by up to 13pc over 2020-30, an IEA report found.

Mitigation deals will hinge on how finance discussions progress, not only for the energy transition but also on adaptation and loss and damage. A lack of climate finance from developed countries obstructed progress at Cop 27. A key focus for developing countries is a $100bn/yr climate finance goal, which wealthy nations agreed to provide by 2020 but failed to reach. The OECD says the goal may have been hit last year, although the data are unverified.

German special envoy for international climate action Jennifer Morgan hopes this could "build some confidence". But it depends on how far developed countries are ready to go in setting a new finance goal from 2025. Some developing countries want the goal to be based on costs outlined in a 2022 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) report, which are similar to those recognised by the G20 — $5.8 trillion-5.9 trillion before 2030. Agreeing a new number will be difficult.

The same goes for discussions on loss and damage. A transitional committee agreed on recommendations for setting up a loss and damage fund at Cop 28. Parties are likely to stand behind the package, with none willing to risk the consensus as it could affect other decisions, WRI senior adviser Preety Bhandari says. But some members expressed reservations, and deep divisions remain on who should pay into the fund. Some say the list should include countries whose economic circumstances have changed since the UNFCCC was established in 1992.

Saudi Arabia signalled that it favours a "different approach" to contributing to multilateral finance. The EU has promised a "substantial" contribution, while Denmark and Germany also pledged some money, according to WRI. But there are no indications on the amount. Observers point to momentum around broader finance architecture reforms, and the opportunity to increase political pressure during the UNFCCC's first global stocktake, which will conclude at Cop 28.

Stocktake signals

The UNFCCC global stocktake is a five-yearly undertaking to measure progress towards the Paris accord, and is intended to inform the next round of emissions-reductions plans, due in 2025. It should provide all parties with a chance to reflect on past achievements and find common ground. It could also act as an anchor for finance and fossil fuel discussions during Cop 28.

The stocktake needs to "double down on what was committed in Paris in 2015, not just on 1.5°C, the mitigation targets and the clean energy transition, but on loss and damage, finance or building more multilateral cohesion", E3G senior associate Alden Meyer says. But the political response is likely to hit the same stumbling blocks that have hindered Cop negotiations so far. Australian energy minister Chris Bowen says he expects a "substantial and contested discussion". And contributions ahead of the conclusion prove him right.

"This is a particularly big moment — if it goes well, it will set up Cop 30 in Brazil [when new climate targets are due]," Meyer says. "If it goes poorly and doesn't send a clear signal, it is going to make it much harder to build trust over the next two years. And of course, we are running out of time."

GHG emissions

Climate finance for developing countries

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25/05/16

Kuwait's Kufpec gets OK to develop Indonesian gas field

Kuwait's Kufpec gets OK to develop Indonesian gas field

Singapore, 16 May (Argus) — Kuwait's Kufpec, a unit of state-owned KPC, has won approval from the Indonesian government for a plan of development for the Anambas gas field located in the West Natuna Sea offshore Indonesia. The Anambas field is located in the Natuna basin and has an estimated gas output of about 55mn ft³/d. Kufpec will invest around $1.54bn into the development of the field, which is planned to come on stream in 2028. The approved plan of development outlines a phased strategy to unlock the gas and condensate potential of the field, said upstream regulator SKK Migas. The regulator will encourage Kufpec to accelerate efforts and bring the project on stream by the fourth quarter of 2027, said the head of SKK Migas, Djoko Siswanto. The development of the field will include drilling production wells and installing subsea pipelines to transport gas from Anambas to existing facilities in the West Natuna transportation system. Kufpec in 2022 announced the discovery of gas and condensate at the Anambas-2X well in the Anambas block. The Anambas block was awarded to Kufpec Indonesia in 2019 through a bidding process. The company holds a 100pc participating interest in the block and has a 30-year production sharing licence, including a six-year exploration period. The approval of the plan of development marks a step towards the project's final investment decision. It also shows that the upstream oil and gas sector in Indonesia is still attractive to domestic and foreign firms, said Djoko. The field is expected to be able to transport gas to domestic and regional markets, support Indonesia's energy security, and drive economic growth, according to SKK Migas. Indonesia continues to prioritise oil and gas expansion to maintain economic growth. Investment in oil and gas rose from $14.9bn in 2023 to $17.5bn in 2024, according to the country's energy ministry. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

JET Tankstellennetz an Investment-Duo verkauft


25/05/15
25/05/15

JET Tankstellennetz an Investment-Duo verkauft

Hamburg, 15 May (Argus) — Phillips 66 hat einen Mehrheitsanteil seiner Tankstellenkette JET an die Investmentfirmen Stonepeak und Energy Equation Partners verkauft. Der Transaktionswert soll etwa 2,5 Mrd. Euro betragen und umfasst gut 970 Tankstellen in Deutschland und Österreich, so die beteiligten Firmen. Die amerikanische Phillips 66 wird einen Anteil von 35 % an JET behalten. Die Transaktion soll voraussichtlich in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2025 abgeschlossen werden, abhängig von behördlichen Zustimmungen. Phillips 66 wird darüber hinaus seinen Anteil an der Miro (310.000 bl/Tag) in Höhe von 18,75 % behalten und von dort JET für mehrere Jahre mit Produkt versorgen. Stonepeak ist eine Investmentfirma, die sich unter anderem auf Energieinvestments spezialisiert hat. Das in New York ansässige Unternehmen hält so unter anderem Anteile an amerikanischen Pipelines sowie an einem Windpark des dänischen Betreibers Ørsted. Energy Equation Partners ist laut Stonepeak eine frisch gegründete Investmentfirma mit Schwerpunkt im Kraftstoffhandel. Von Max Steinhau Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Erste Preise für CO2-Kosten im Verkehr ab 2027 bekannt


25/05/15
25/05/15

Erste Preise für CO2-Kosten im Verkehr ab 2027 bekannt

Hamburg, 15 May (Argus) — Die CO2-Kosten für Heizöl und Kraftstoffe werden in 2027 [wahrscheinlich] steigen. Dies zeigen erste Transaktionen für EUAs an der ICE. Verschiedene Handelsplätze bereiten darüber hinaus die Einführung von europaweiten Handelssystemen vor oder bieten diesen bereits an. Die nationale CO2-Abgabe (nEHS) wird im Jahr 2027 vom neuen europäischen Emissionshandelssystem (ETS 2) ersetzt. Am 06. Mai wurden hierfür erstmals Future Kontrakte für Emissionsrechte (EUA) an der ICE gehandelt. Insgesamt wurden rund 5000 EUAs in zwei Transaktionen gehandelt, beide zu 73,57 €/CO2e. Dies entspräche einer CO2-Abgabe von etwa 18,46 €/100l für Diesel, gegenüber aktuell im nEHS anfallenden 13,80 €/100l (siehe Grafik). Die CO2-Abgabe beträgt derzeit fix 55 €/t CO2e. Auch die leipziger Energiebörse EEX wird in Zukunft den Handel mit EUAs im ETS 2 anbieten: Ab dem 7. Juli 2025 sollen entsprechende Futures Kontrakte gehandelt werden können. Die EEX ist bereits die zentrale Handelsplattform im nEHS. Der erste Handelspreis für ETS 2 EUAs entpricht ungefährt dem Preis für EUAs im ETS 1, welches seit 2005 für Industrieemissionen gilt. Nach der Einführung des ETS 2 sollen die beiden Systeme zunächst parallel zueinander existieren, ohne Kompatibilität der jeweiligen EUAs zwischen einander. Langfristig soll jedoch auch eine Zusammenlegung der Systeme möglich sein; dies soll ab 2030 evaluiert werden. Wie hoch die Preise für EUAs im neuen System letztendlich ausfallen werden ist dennoch ungewiss. Verschiedene Forschungsgruppen haben bereits Prognosen erstellt, die je nach Studie von Preisen zwischen 60 und 405 €/t CO2e ausgehen. Im Extremfall könnte die CO2-Abgabe über 100 €/100l für B7-Diesel betragen. Die neue Bundesregierung bekräftigt im Koalitionsvertrag ihre Unterstützung des ETS 2, werde jedoch vom Opt-In des Agrarsektors keinen Gebrauch machen. Entsprechend wird Deutschand Emissionen aus der Landwirtschaft nicht im ETS 2 erfassen. Stark betroffene Wirtschaftsbranchen sollen unbürokratisch kompensiert werden, jedoch gibt der Koalitionsvertrag dazu keine Details. Neben der CO2-Abgabe bzw. dem ETS2 ab 2027 ist die Treibhausgasminderungsquote das andere gesetzliche Mittel der Politik die Energiewende im Verkehr voranzubringen. Zusammen führen beide zu einem verhältnismäßigen Preisanstieg von Diesel und Benzin und machen biogene Alternativen wie HVO wettbewerbsfähiger. Von Max Steinhau Höhe der CO2-Abgabe nach Kraftstoff Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Verkehrssektor verfehlt Klimaziele


25/05/15
25/05/15

Verkehrssektor verfehlt Klimaziele

Hamburg, 15 May (Argus) — Der Verkehrssenktor hat sein Emissionsreduktionsziel in 2024 verfehlt. Dies geht aus dem Prüfbericht des Expertenrats für Klimafragen hervor. Branchenverbände des Kraftstoffmarktes nutzen den Bericht als Appell an die Bundesregierung. Laut des Berichtes vom 15. April hat der Verkehrssektor in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 rund 143 Mio. t CO2-Äquivalent emittiert. Dies stellt einen Rückgang um etwa 1,4 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr dar und entspricht etwa dem Rückgang der Emissionen von 2022 zu 2023. Ursprünglich sollte der Verkehrssektor eine Reduzierung auf 125,2 Mio. t CO2e erzielen. Entsprechend wurde diese Zielmarke um knapp 18 Mio. t CO2e überschritten. Insgesamt ist der Verkehrssektor für 9 % der bundesweiten Emissionen verantwortlich, so der Expertenrat. Dabei sei ein Großteil des Rückgangs auf den Bereich schwerer Fahrzeuge wie LKW und Busse zurückzuführen. Die Emissionen des privaten Personenverkehrs sind konstant geblieben. Der geringe Emissionsrückgang ist laut Expertenrat auf die mangelnde strukturelle Entwicklung im Verkehrssektor sowie der anhaltenden Dominanz fossiler Antriebsarten zurückzuführen. Außerdem soll die Verkehrsleistung von PKW zugenommen haben. Die daraus resultierenden Mehremissionen seien jedoch aufgrund des im Vergleich zum Vorjahr höheren Bestand an batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugen ein Stück weit ausgeglichen worden. Auch das geringe Wirtschaftswachstum hat zum Emissionsrückgang beigetragen. Die neue Bundesregierung hat im Koalitionsvertrag bestätigt, am Anstieg der THG-Quote festzuhalten. Dies soll Inverkehrbringer von Kraftstoffen dazu anregen, mehr emissionsärmere Kraftstoffe anstelle von fossilen in Verkehr zu bringen. Der Branchenverband Uniti begrüßt dieses Vorhaben zwar, mahnt jedoch an, dass diese Maßnahmen nicht ausreichen würden, um den Markthochlauf der erneuerbaren und alternativen Kraftstoffen voranzutreiben. Der Verband fordert die Regierung auf, sich auf europäischer Ebene für eine Anpassung der CO2-Flottenregulierung einsetzen. Diese berücksichtigt bei der Ermittlung der Emissionen nicht etwaige Einsparungen bei der Produktion des Kraftstoffes, sondern nur die tatsächlichen Emissionen im Betrieb. Von Max Steinhau Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

UK establishes public energy company


25/05/15
25/05/15

UK establishes public energy company

London, 15 May (Argus) — The UK parliament has passed a bill establishing a publicly owned energy company, Great British Energy (GBE), to support the nation's renewable energy ambitions. The company, funded with £8.3bn ($11.02bn) over the current parliamentary term, aims to accelerate renewable energy projects, enhance energy security, and support job creation, the department for energy security and net zero (Desnz) announced on Thursday. GBE will invest in clean energy initiatives, including technologies such as floating offshore wind, and collaborate with private companies to expand renewable energy capacity. The government states the company will help stabilise energy costs by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. The bill includes £200mn for renewable energy projects, such as rooftop solar for schools, hospitals, and communities. It has also committed £300mn to develop the UK's offshore wind supply chain, supporting manufacturing of components such as cables and platforms. The legislation received approval from the devolved governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, enabling GBE to operate across the UK. Desnz secretary of state Ed Miliband is expected to outline GBE's strategic priorities "soon", specifying technology focus areas and investment criteria. The government sees GBE as a key part of its plan to transition to clean energy and stimulate economic growth through a "modern industrial strategy", it said. Industry body Energy UK welcomed the bill's passage. "[GBE] can play a vital role in making the government's clean energy ambitions a reality by attracting extra private sector investment," chief executive Dhara Vyas said. By Timothy Santonastaso Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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