Global renewable power additions rose by almost 50pc on the year to an estimated 507GW in 2023, a fresh record high, spurred by "continuous policy support", energy watchdog the IEA said today.
The additions — three-quarters of which were solar power — beat the IEA's previous estimate for the year of 440GW. Renewable capacity additions set a new record high for a 22nd consecutive year, the IEA added in its Renewables 2023 report.
The IEA forecasts that total global installed renewables capacity will reach 7.3TW by 2028 "under existing policies and market conditions". Under an "accelerated scenario", also to 2028, "more rapid policy implementation drives renewable power capacity growth 21pc higher than in the main forecast".
"It's not enough yet to reach the Cop 28 goal of tripling renewables, but we're moving closer — and governments have the tools needed to close the gap," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. More than 120 countries agreed in December at the UN Cop 28 climate summit to triple renewable energy capacity to 11TW by 2030. The IEA uses installed renewables capacity in 2022, at 3.65TW, as its baseline year. But reaching the Cop 28 pledge will "hinge on" financing and deploying renewables in emerging and developing economies, "many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy", Birol cautioned.
Globally, renewables are set to overtake coal to become the biggest source of power generation by "early 2025", the IEA estimated. Solar and wind will account for 95pc of the expansion.
Europe, the US and Brazil all had record increases in renewable capacity in 2023, but "China's acceleration was extraordinary", the IEA noted. China will "deploy almost four times more renewable capacity than the EU and five times more than the US" over 2023-28, the agency said.
Growth in solar and onshore wind additions to 2028 is expected to "more than double" compared with the past five years in the US, the EU, India and Brazil, the IEA found. This is driven by "supportive policy environments" such as the US' Inflation Reduction Act, but also by the "improving economic attractiveness" of the technologies — particularly as consumers look to cut electricity bills.
Cost efficiencies
Wind and solar power "will become more cost-competitive" up to 2028, the IEA's forecast period for the report, the agency found. Almost all newly-installed onshore wind and solar had lower generation costs than new coal and gas plants in 2023, while around three-quarters of them "offered cheaper power than existing fossil fuel facilities", it added.
Falling prices for solar power modules, on the back of increased manufacturing capacity, has helped to improve cost efficiencies. Spot prices for solar modules in 2023 fell by nearly 50pc on the year, as production capacity rose threefold from 2021 levels. It is likely to reach 1.1TW this year and 1.3TW in 2028, the IEA found. Policy support in the US and India has led to "unprecedented [solar] manufacturing expansion" in those countries, but China is expected to retain the lion's share of global supply chains, at 80-95pc, depending on the sector.
The IEA noted challenges for wind, especially in the offshore sector, related to "ongoing supply chain disruptions, higher costs and long permitting timelines". Inflation has increased equipment costs, while higher interest rates mean that financing costs have risen, while policy has been "relatively slow to adjust", the IEA said.
Governments should ensure a "rapid" response to obstacles including grid connections, permitting and financing to enable renewables growth, the IEA said.
