US balances diplomacy, military strikes in Yemen

: Crude oil, Natural gas
24/02/06

The US administration is combining military strikes in Yemen with appeals to the Houthi militants through regional mediators to stop attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

"We're very determined to put pressure on the Houthis to de-escalate," State Department's Yemen envoy Tim Lenderking said today. "The sooner we get de-escalation in the Red Sea, the sooner the international community could refocus on the vital issue of peace in Yemen." Lenderking was addressing a discussion held by Washington think tank the Middle East Institute, ahead of a trip to Oman and other Mideast Gulf countries. Oman is a key intermediary in the US' interactions with the Houthi group.

President Joe Biden three years ago tasked Lenderking to negotiate an end to the Yemen civil war. The US mediation has been successful in getting Saudi Arabia and the UAE to end their involvement in the war while Yemeni political actors backed by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have maintained a ceasefire with the Houthi militants.

But "October 7, of course, has thrown all of this into terrible turmoil and uncertainty, along with other lines of effort that the US was working on in the Middle East," Lenderking said, referring to the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza.

Attacks against vessels in the Red Sea have prompted major shippers to divert cargo traffic away from the region and have lifted insurance and freight rates. The Houthis originally said they would only target those vessels that are linked to Israel but have more recently begun targeting US and UK targets in response to US- and UK-led air strikes against targets in Yemen that began last month.

The US messaging through regional meetings and other mediators includes pointing out to the Houthis that their actions would jeopardize their hard-won position in Yemen, Lenderking said.

The UN-backed plan for rebuilding Yemen is on pause because "there's no way that any country would support salary payments, for example, to people in Houthi-controlled areas when the Houthis are using every resource that they can to attack international shipping," he said.

The Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council have refrained from taking any action against the Houthis after the US strikes. But "the longer this drags out, the more this tempts miscreants or other forces inside Yemen to perhaps take matters into their own hands" in opposition to the Houthis, Lenderking said.

The Houthis have shown willingness to "have skin in the game" by abiding to the ceasefire since April 2022 and "why would they want to throw all that away?" The UN, regional mediators and other countries have all been working "to try and find a climb down for the Houthis that would enable this situation to improve," which, he said, would also end US air strikes.

Many US military and national security officials have commonly portrayed the Houthi militants as agents of Tehran, but Lenderking today offered a more nuanced view.

"The sense we have is, overwhelmingly, that Iran is pushing on an open door here with the Houthis," by providing weapons and intelligence to target ships, Lenderking said. Iran has supported efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Yemen's civil war, but "what they're doing now is the opposite."

US efforts to de-escalate the crisis in the Red Sea also depends on broader diplomacy to end conflict in Gaza, Lenderking said. "You can't escape a trip to the region without having a Gaza conversation."

By Haik Gugarats

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24/11/14

Cop: German opposition pushes for Article 6

Berlin, 14 November (Argus) — Germany's main opposition parties have welcomed the progress achieved on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. They have called on Germany and the EU to make better use of the instrument to allow for more cost-efficient climate action. Germany's dominant opposition party, the right-of-centre CDU/CSU, on 14 November commended the framework under Article 6 as an efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. The Article 6 mechanism allows for reductions to happen where they are quickest, cheapest and easiest to be carried out, the CDU head of the working group on climate action and energy, Andreas Jung, said in a debate in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag. The deputy head of the FDP faction Lukas Koehler, also speaking in the Bundestag on 14 November, called on Germany and the EU to "finally" integrate the Article 6 in their climate action plans. Koehler argued that if for instance Germany's progress in emissions reduction should turn out to be too slow, the country could temporarily shift its efforts — and the associated finance — to where more rapid mitigation might be achieved, such as Brazil. The EU, of which Germany is a member state, will not make use of Article 6 credits, at least until 2030, to reach its so-called nationally determined contribution (NDC) – its climate action pledge — under the Paris climate accord. The EU has been seeing progress on ongoing Article 6 negotiations at Cop 29, the European Commission's principal advisor for international aspects of EU climate policy Jacob Werksman said today, "mostly because parties are now agreeing with the EU and others that were concerned about the transparency and accountability of the bilateral markets that operate under Article 6.2". Werksman believes there is enough momentum for negotiations to be concluded next week, noting that the atmosphere has "improved" compared with previous negotiations, which echoes the sentiment expressed by a number of negotiators earlier this week . Werksman pointed in particular to the US now agreeing with others and helping to broker compromises. Koehler also warned German government representatives in Baku to refrain from "expensive" pledges which may strain the country's budget. Developed countries agreed in 2009 to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations, and Cop 29 is focused on the next iteration of this — the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) . In a statement, Germany — represented by Scholz despite his absence at the Cop — and other G7 members like Canada, France, or the Netherlands agreed that "developed countries must continue to take the lead and live up to existing finance commitments". Germany faces early elections as the government lost its majority last week following the sacking, by chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrat SPD, of finance minister Christian Lindner of the pro-business FDP party and the FDP's subsequent withdrawal from the ruling coalition. Polls suggest that the CDU/CSU group will easily win the next federal elections which are scheduled to take place on 23 February. The FDP's persistent refusal to allow Germany to take on more debt to enable more public funding, including of clean technologies, was the main reason for Lindner's sacking. By Chloe Jardine and Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

24/11/14

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

Kingston, 14 November (Argus) — Guyana is lifting its floating power capacity to 111MW with the rental of plants that the government says will prevent widespread power cuts over the next two years. The government has contracted a 75MW power barge from Turkish firm Karpowership that installed a 36MW barge in May, finance minister Ashni Singh said on Wednesday. The government has not released the terms of the contracts for the floating plants that are being fired by imported heavy fuel oil. Karpowership has been given a two-year contract that the government says will expire with the scheduled commissioning of a $2bn natural gas project that includes a 300MW power plant. The project will be fed by gas from a deepwater block being worked by US major ExxonMobil. The agreements with Karpowership "will take us just beyond the period when the new plant comes on stream," Guyana's vice president Bharrat Jagdeo said. The growing oil producer in northern South America faces a widening power deficit as state power utility GPL cannot meet demand created by a rapidly expanding oil-fired economy, the government said. Power demand in the country of 750,000 people has grown from 115MW in 2020 to 175MW currently and is projected to reach 205MW by year-end, the government said. GPL's fuel oil-fired output of 165MW "does not allow for a comfortable reserve so we need adequate redundant capacity," an official told Argus . Guyana's contract for power barges from Karpowership is the company's third in the region. Six of the company's floating plants are supporting Cuba's faltering power system, while another is stationed in the Dominican Republic. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

24/11/14

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

Baku, 14 November (Argus) — Price fluctuations in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) make it difficult for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects to attract finance, delegates at a UN Cop 29 climate conference side event in Baku, Azerbaijan, heard today. Fluctuations in the EU ETS price make it more difficult to model the support provided to CCS projects through avoided compliance costs, law firm Latham & Watkins partner Jean-Philippe Brisson said. These ups and downs are "very difficult for corporates", Japanese bank MUFG director Yukimi Shimura said. The benchmark front-year EU ETS contract has closed at an average of €66.20/t ($69.82/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) so far this year in Argus assessments, compared with €85.30/t CO2e last year. While carbon pricing is an "absolute must" for CCS, if ETS cost avoidance is your only revenue stream it is very difficult to convince financials or board members to support projects, Swiss cement major Holcim vice president Pavan Chilukuri said, as the long-term viability of projects is not guaranteed. Additional funding is therefore needed to accelerate project implementation, Chilukuri said. This could be in the form of revenues from carbon dioxide removal credits — generated when plants run on biogenic energy and the carbon captured — or carbon contracts for difference. The CCS hub concept — where a number of sites capturing CO2 are located near each other to make use of the same transportation and storage infrastructure — can also help to limit costs, he said. But hubs come with their own cross-chain risks, Shimura said, including uncertainty surrounding liability for issues such as delays. The UK government — which is developing two CCS clusters — is doing an "excellent job" to minimise such risks, Shimura said. But more needs to be done in the US and Asia, with a role to be played by governments, she said. Most CCS activity remains concentrated in the US because incentives there are very strong and fixed for 12 years, Brisson said, referring to the $85/t tax credit for CCS offered under the country's Inflation Reduction Act. But even this is now "not good enough", Shimura said, as inflation has pushed costs up since the figure was set. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bangladesh’s spot LNG purchases spike on power demand

24/11/14

Bangladesh’s spot LNG purchases spike on power demand

Mumbai, 14 November (Argus) — Spot LNG imports into Bangladesh have spiked just three months into the interim government of Muhammad Yunus. The interest upsurge is the largest seen so far, and is made more compelling particularly with spot prices well above $13/mn Btu, which has sidelined even key importers such as India and China. The rise in LNG imports comes on the back of Bangladesh's power market struggling to meet electricity supply owing to unpaid power bills under the previous prime minister Sheikh Hasina's government earlier this year. Bangladesh's power generation currently has stabilised after experiencing a sharp downturn in August when the former prime minister resigned. Maximum power generation so far this month stands at an average of 12.5GW, up by 6pc on the year (s ee graph ). Bangladesh's Rupantarita Prakritik Gas (RPGCL), operating under state-owned oil and gas firm Petrobangla, is the sole LNG importer in the country. The super-chilled fuel helps to meet over 50pc of the country's electricity requirement. RPGCL floated tenders for 23 LNG cargoes since September this year including multiple reissuances, compared with just eight cargoes floated over the same period last year. RPGCL floated tenders for a total of 27 cargoes in 2023, Argus data show. These tenders were mostly awarded to four suppliers — Singapore-based Vitol Asia, Gunvor Singapore, TotalEnergies and Excelerate Energy, despite having a list of 23 companies across the globe to import LNG from. Out of the 23 LNG tenders since September this year, only nine were awarded to these four firms except for one to Japan's Jera. Other tenders were withdrawn or reissued, possibly owing to insufficient offers, Argus data indicate. The firm recently invited expressions of interest (EOI) from sellers that wish to supply delivered LNG to Bangladesh to widen its pool of participants from which it may buy spot LNG. The move could be linked to new public procurement regulations imposed by the interim government that require RPGCL to receive a minimum of three offers before it is able to award its tenders. New vs old rules The Public Procurement Rules, 2008 (PPR-2008), were set out to ensure transparency, efficiency and fair competition in the procurement of goods, works or services using public funds. This deviates from RPGCL's previous practice of following a special power and energy law that had no mandatory provision on minimum participation in tenders, a company official told Argus last month. The previous government had enacted the Speedy Power and Energy Supply (Special) Act 2010 to operate without tendering, which was mainly an impunity act based on a provision that prevented the act to be challenged in court. The enactment of raising the EOI for the new seller list by the interim government is likely to stop any monopoly or preference for a particular LNG supplier in the country. While some of the RPGCL tenders have gone unawarded in recent months owing to insufficient offers, a few of the recent tenders were heard to be awarded despite attracting just two offers, in an attempt to implement the PPR-2008 rules, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. While it is still uncertain if RPGCL would be able to garner interest from more LNG sellers across the globe at a time when it is getting back on its feet to establish strong and transparent governance, it remains to be seen if more portfolio players would want to show their willingness to support a country that is likely to be hungry for gas for decades to come as their domestic production remains weak. Gas output Bangladesh's gas production including LNG stands at 2,868mn ft³/d (29.5bn m³/yr) as of 13 November, data from Petrobangla show. There was no figure available for the same period last year for comparison. Gas output in the country has been weak since the Covid pandemic, with output falling to up to 2,306mn ft³/d, lower by 5pc on the year, Petrobangla data show. The production volumes also include LNG supply, which could meet 54pc of the gas demand of the country in 2023 ( see table ). The interim government is heard to be addressing the most pressing issues in the country, particularly relating to the oil and gas exploration industry. Petrobangla has invited bids under Bangladesh Offshore Bidding Round 2024, offering a total of 24 blocks that include nine shallow-sea blocks and 15 deep-sea blocks with both oil and gas reserves. It has extended the deadline for bid submission to 9 December 2024, from 9 September 2024 previously. By Rituparna Ghosh, Rou Urn Lee and Naomi Ong Bangladesh natural gas (mn ft³/d) Natural gas 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 Demand 3,852 3,996 4,163 4,214 4,274 Production(domestic+imported LNG) 2,712 2,669 2,722 2,414 2,306 Shortfall 1,140 1,327 1,441 1,800 1,968 — Bangladesh energy and mineral resource division Bangladesh power generation MW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

24/11/14

IEA sees wider oil market surplus next year

London, 14 November (Argus) — The IEA is predicting a global oil supply surplus of over 1mn b/d next year, which it says will provide "much-needed stability" to the market. The Paris-based agency's latest Oil Market Report (OMR) shows a 1.15mn b/d supply surplus next year, the highest since it first started projecting supply and demand levels for 2025 in April this year. It is 40,000 b/d higher than its estimate last month. "With supply risks omnipresent, a looser balance would provide some much-needed stability to a market upended by the Covid pandemic, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, heightened unrest in the Middle East," the IEA said. The IEA's projected supply surplus could be much higher if Opec+ members push ahead with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts from January over a 12-month period. But this is not guaranteed. Weaker-than-expected demand has already forced the Opec+ members to delay their plan to start increasing output by three months. Opec+ ministers are set to decide on their output policy for 2025 and beyond in a meeting on 1 December. The IEA's oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next remain below 1mn b/d — a steep drop compared with 2mn b/d last year and 2.5mn b/d in 2022. For this year, the IEA has raised its oil demand growth projection by 60,000 b/d to 920,000 b/d, mostly because of higher-than-expected consumption in Europe. Its forecast for next year has been nudged down by 10,000 b/d to 990,000 b/d compared with last month's OMR. Much of the slowdown in global consumption centres on China, where the economy is not growing as fast as it once did. The IEA has kept its oil demand growth for China unchanged at 150,000 b/d for this year, but this is far below the 710,000 b/d it was forecasting in January. The agency said Chinese oil demand contracted for a sixth straight month in September, pushing consumption in the third quarter 270,000 b/d below year-earlier levels. For next year, the IEA has lowered its Chinese demand growth forecast by 30,000 b/d to 190,000 b/d. China's slowing oil demand is also due to an increased uptake of electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail, the IEA said. On global supply, the IEA has trimmed its growth estimate for this year by 20,000 b/d to 640,000 b/d. But for next year, it sees supply growth accelerating to more than 2mn b/d, led by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 47.5mn bl in September to their lowest level since January. It also said preliminary data show stocks fell further in October. By Aydin Calik Supply and demand balance Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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