Ineos may close Grangemouth ethanol plant: Update

: Biofuels, LPG, Petrochemicals
24/03/19

Adds details on plant capacity, production and feedstocks in paragraphs two and three

UK-based chemicals firm Ineos has proposed to stop ethanol production at its Grangemouth plant in Scotland in the first quarter of 2025.

The company told Argus its ethanol business at Grangemouth has been "running at a loss" for more than five years, a result of reduced demand for ethanol in Europe and pressure from imports. It declined to comment on current ethanol output from the facility, which has capacity of 340,000 t/yr according to Argus.

Grangemouth ethanol production is based on ethylene supplied from the company's neighbouring 740,000 t/yr ethane and LPG-based steam cracker, with capacity to consume an estimated 214,000 t/yr of ethylene at nameplate production capacity. The closure would swing the ethylene balance at Grangemouth from balanced to long, based on nameplate capacities. The excess could be exported or swapped into Ineos' European ethylene balance, which is short.

Customers "will be offered the supply of ethanol from Ineos' other plant in Herne, Germany," said Ineos Olefins and Polymers chief executive Stuart Collings.

Ineos told Argus that the closure of the plant depends on the outcome of ongoing consultations with its employees and the trade union.

The Argus fob ARA range spot ethanol price averaged around €770/m³ in 2023, compared with €1,020/m³ in 2022. After rising towards €900/m³ by the start of November, the price has now dropped below €700/m³.

Ex-EU imports of undenatured ethanol — required for road fuel blending in Europe — had fallen from the start of 2023 through to the end of the third quarter of that year, to about 811,000t from around 943,000t in the same period in 2022, according to provisional GTT data. The decline was largely attributed to lower ethanol prices in northwest Europe.

By Evelina Lungu and George Barsted

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25/04/02

Q&A: LGE still pushing EU for RLG concessions

London, 2 April (Argus) — European LPG association Liquid Gas Europe (LGE) continues to push to secure EU and member state support for renewable liquid gases (RLG) such as bioLPG and renewable DME (rDME) while protecting customers of LPG and autogas from policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels. Argus' Dafydd ab Iago and Matt Scotland spoke to LGE general manager Ewa Abramiuk-Lete: What is the EU's latest position on CO2-neutral fuels in road transport? The European Commission's 2023 regulation proposes a framework for registering vehicles after 2035 that operate solely on CO2-neutral fuels in accordance with EU law and climate neutrality objectives. Since then, the commission has been tasked with developing a definition of what CO2-neutral fuels are, but no official information has been released yet. Meanwhile, as part of the broader fuels industry, we've collaborated in a technical group to formulate a definition that encompasses all renewable fuels in line with the EU's renewable energy directive [RED III]. The group's report frequently makes reference to renewable LPG and DME. But will the commission consider anything other than e-fuels? Certain EU commissioners and commission president Ursula von der Leyen have emphasised the need for technological neutrality when revising CO2 standards for cars. The devil is in the details. At this point, there is talk, but we've yet to see any concrete proposals or indications from the commission. We are closely monitoring the current developments in the commission, primarily to determine whether the concept of technological neutrality is being practically implemented and if there is potential for more than just e-fuels and hydrogen. But the push for this concept should originate from member states. Failing to broaden the scope would be a missed opportunity to support a broader range of cost-effective, immediately deployable renewable solutions like RLGs and rDME. When could we find out what fuels are included? A decision may come later this year. Any initiative to reopen or amend EU legislation must come from the commission. Recent intense discussions in the European Parliament about the state of the automotive sector, as well as growing pressure from member states, could be enough to persuade the commission to act. What has been the reaction to the EU's clean industrial deal and state aid rules? We are still reviewing the new state aid proposals. At first glance, RLGs seem to be included. The commission indicates that all fuels compliant with [RED III] — such as bioLPG, biomethane and rDME — are eligible for support. Fossil fuels are generally excluded, with limited exceptions for natural gas under strict conditions. The justification for this is that natural gas is deemed cleaner than more polluting alternatives — an argument that equally applies to LPG. In which direction is the EU discussion on energy taxation heading? The European Council is still finalising the energy taxation directive. The matter lies with EU member states, which must vote unanimously on energy taxation. Progress is being made slowly. The current Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU will need to determine the next steps on critical issues before a consensus can be reached. For LPG, what is at stake is whether RLGs are fairly treated under the new tax framework — and whether the directive allows for differentiation between renewable and conventional fuels, and between business and non-business uses. How will the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD) affect LPG? A lot is quite technical, but also vital for the sector. One key issue is the inconsistent implementation of the EPBD across EU member states. Guidance documents provide definitions of what constitutes a fossil fuel boiler, which is essential as several member states are preparing to phase out such boilers between 2035 and 2040. A significant question [is whether there will be] recognition of renewable-ready or renewable-compatible boilers, particularly those using bioLPG or rDME. We are analysing how member states are interpreting and implementing these provisions. In Italy, there is strong support for the continued use of bioLPG in heating, but this level of recognition varies significantly between member states. What is the latest on the EU's proposed restrictions on PFAS ? The European Chemicals Agency is conducting a socio-economic assessment as part of the EU's proposed restriction on PFAS under Reach, covering many industrial uses. In the LPG sector, PFAS — particularly fluoropolymers such as PTFE — play a critical role in cylinders, tanks and valves. These materials are essential for preventing leaks in systems that store and transport flammable gases. Some alternatives are being tested — including PFAS-free sealing techniques used by certain companies in Spain — but they are not yet widely adopted or validated across the EU. Promising developments are being made but require further testing to meet safety standards. Your recent RLG Outlook models European RLG output reaching 27.4mn t/yr by 2050 under the policy conditions. Is that not too optimistic given limited progress in the past two years and the dissolution of rDME joint venture Dimeta? While the dissolution of Dimeta was a setback, it does not change the long-term outlook for rDME. Our 2050 modelling shows that Europe could produce up to 27.4mn t/yr of renewable LPG equivalent, of which up to 40pc could come from rDME. The industry continues to see strong potential in rDME, and essential work is progressing on technical standardisation, and safety and blending rules. Our analysis also indicates that sustainable feedstocks are sufficient to fulfil this production potential. Out of 22 production pathways, we examined nine in detail based on a multi-criteria analysis. Only two are fully commercialised at present. This is why we are advocating for co-ordinated policy action — to accelerate commercialisation and mitigate investment risks. Will rDME be a core focus at LGE's Congress in Katowice over 20-22 May? RDME will be one of many key topics at the congress. The event will take place in Poland, drawing strong participation from central and eastern European markets, as well as from further afield, with delegates expected from the US, South America, Africa, Australia and Asia. [LGE] plans to present the RLG Outlook and explore opportunities for scaling up RLG production. In addition, sessions will focus on the role of LPG in agriculture, transport and heating — all critical sectors for the energy transition. Central Europe and Poland will be a core point of discussion, given its significant autogas market and ongoing energy security challenges. We will also address the impact of Russian sanctions on the Polish LPG market, with high-level representatives from the Polish presidency and industry ministry in attendance. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

25/04/01

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

25/04/01

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US propane prices remain firm as stocks fall again

25/04/01

US propane prices remain firm as stocks fall again

Inventories at a three-year low and strong demand for exports supported propane prices this month, writes Joseph Barbour Houston, 1 April (Argus) — US Gulf coast Mont Belvieu propane prices remained elevated relative to crude last month as domestic inventories declined to their lowest since 2022. Mont Belvieu LST propane prices averaged 54.3pc of Nymex WTI crude in March, up by 11.4 percentage points from a year earlierand 4.4 percentage points higher than the five-year March average. US propane stocks typically start to build from March as seasonal heating demand abates — the first stockbuild of the year took place in the second or third week of March in 2021-24, EIA data show. And support for prices from expectations of cold weather had largely subsided by early March, market participants said, with outlooks from the US' National Weather Service forecasting warmer than average weather for the first half of March. But US propane inventories fell for a 23rd consecutive week over the seven days to 21 March, dropping to 43.2mn bl (3.48mn t), their lowest since 29 April 2022, EIA data show. The latest stockdraw was largely because of stronger US exports, which offset weaker domestic demand. Propane exports averaged 1.91mn b/d (4.7mn t/month) in March, up from 1.83mn b/d in February, while domestic sales fell to 1.21mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d. Propane's value relative to crude reached a three-year high of 59.2pc by the end of February as strong heating demand tightened supply in the first half of the month and market participants appeared to cover short positions as it neared its end. Fading interest in prompt supply in March led prices to largely move in lockstep with crude until mid-month, but prices remained strong on tight supply and rose later in the month as buyers returned, peaking at 94.75¢/USG, or 57.6pc of Nymex WTI crude, on 24 March. As a result, propane will enter the summer off-season from its strongest quarter relative to crude in three years. US propane exports could remain high in April on strong petrochemical demand in China given rising production margins and delayed purchases from earlier uncertainty regarding US tariffs. But prices historically ease during the off-season and prompt Mont Belvieu backwardation suggests they could begin to fall soon. Mont Belvieu propane price, US propane stocks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Carney backs Canadian fossil fuel sector

25/04/01

Carney backs Canadian fossil fuel sector

The prime minister's focus is on Canada becoming a superpower in conventional and clean energy, writes Yulia Golub Calgary, 1 April (Argus) — Canadians will vote for a new federal government on 28 April after recently assumed prime minister Mark Carney triggered an election on 23 March. The new leader has moved ahead in the polls and is running on more favourable policies for the country's fossil fuel industry, having already axed a carbon tax on the sector. Carney, who was sworn into office on 14 March after former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, will face off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives were widely expected to rout the Liberals and form the next government until a remarkable rebound in polling by the Liberals over the past two months, which has been attributed to the replacement of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau as well as rising anti-US sentiment linked to US president Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and "51st state" rhetoric. Carney has removed a carbon tax on fossil fuels from 1 April, ending a contentious federal policy among the electorate. Abolishing the carbon tax has been one of Poilievre's campaign pillars. Canada will become a superpower in "both conventional and clean energies", says Carney, who has mentioned the need for more pipelines, trade corridors and energy infrastructure to diversify Canada's energy exports away from the US . The shift in energy policy priorities under the prime minister makes him more closely aligned with the Conservatives. Carney's strong opposition to the Trump administration is boosting his appeal, while Poilievre is increasingly being seen as having similarities to Trump. "We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump's unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty," Carney said on 23 March when he announced the election. Speaking four days later after Trump said a new 25pc tax on imported vehicles and vehicle parts would be "permanent", the prime minister declared the "old relationship we had with the US... is over". Canada imposed retaliatory 25pc tariffs on select US goods from 4 February, subsequently delayed until 4 March, and says it plans to introduce additional tariffs if Trump follows through with his pledge to slap even higher taxes on the US' trading partners from 2 April. The two leaders held their first call on 28 March, in which they agreed to negotiate new economic and security agreements after the 28 April election. "We had a very, very good talk," Trump said. The US' 10pc tariff on Canadian energy imports remains in place. Canada's largest oil and gas firms have asked the government to declare an "energy crisis" to expedite new pipelines, ports and LNG facilities, while bolstering trade relationships beyond the US, streamlining regulation and reducing project approval timelines. Propane pain Propane costs for consumers in Canada and the US are expected to rise as a result of the 10pc tariff, panellists at the Canada Clean Fuels Summit said on 25 March. "Even if the tariffs are eventually lifted, there is no guarantee added costs will disappear," the Canadian Propane Association's vice-president of government relations, Katie Kachur, said. The tariffs could cost propane suppliers up to $200mn/yr, she said. Canada is exporting more propane by sea to Asia but most — about 62pc in 2024, customs data show — heads to the US, Kachur said. Canadian LPG term contract prices for the 2025-26 contract year starting on 1 April are falling owing to uncertainty over the 10pc tariff and forecasts for rising domestic production. Producers and buyers usually finalise deals early in the year but negotiations this year are yet to be concluded. Prices for propane from western Canada's Edmonton hub are being discussed at 23-25¢/USG ($120-130.50/t) discounts to equivalent prices at the US midcontinent hub of Conway, compared with 19-25¢/USG discounts for 2024-25. Term contracts for Edmonton butane are being discussed at 39-41pc of the calendar month average of Nymex WTI crude, down from 40-44pc. Canada's Pacific coast LPG terminals Canada LPG exports by destination Canada LPG exports by freight type Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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