Shipping disruptions lifting fuel demand: Vitol

: Crude oil, Natural gas
24/03/20

Shipping disruptions due to attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have boosted fuel demand as vessels seek to avoid the area, according to trading firm Vitol.

"We're consuming 100,000 b/d more fuel to go the long route globally," chief executive Russell Hardy told the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, on Wednesday. It has added about 3pc to the number of miles traveled.

The number of tankers passing through the Suez Canal today is still higher than in 2019 "because we have had to reorientate so much oil because of the Russia situation," he said. "There's a lot more unusual movement happening today than in 2019."

Separately, Vitol has pushed back its forecast for peak oil demand to the early part of the next decade given the "complexities" of the energy transition.

"Getting projects done, getting the grids decarbonized is taking longer than probably most people anticipated," Hardy said.

In terms of the LNG market, he predicted some limited gas demand growth in Europe while the "bigger demand case" is seen in Asia.

"A lot of the new production is going to end up in Asian markets," Hardy said. "There is huge growth potential just because there's still billions of tons of coal being consumed in Asia."

While the current LNG pause in the US has been a "talking point," Hardy said there was still "significant" demand under construction that is due to start up over the next few years.

By Stephen Cunningham

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25/01/06

Canadian prime minister Trudeau to resign

Calgary, 6 January (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said he will resign as soon as his Liberal Party selects a new leader to run in general elections expected later this year. Calls for Trudeau to resign have been growing for months but became too much to ignore as the Liberals continued to fall further behind the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre in polling. Recent polls indicate the centre-right Conservatives would win a majority of seats in the House of Commons if an election were held today. "If I'm having to fight internal battles, I can't be the best option in that election," Trudeau said in Ottawa this morning. Parliament was set to return from a break on 27 January, at which time Conservatives were expected to attempt to trigger an election by way of a no-confidence vote. Canada's governor general — at Trudeau's request — extended the break until 24 March. That break will buy the Liberals time to find a new leader but it will be a tall order for any successor to both unite the party and also connect with Canadians on short notice before an expected spring election. "There will be confidence votes in March," said Trudeau, whose minority government has been propped up by the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP has helped Trudeau survive no-confidence votes in recent months, but on 20 December vowed that it would also bring the government down when it returned to session. Trudeau was elected as a member of parliament (MP) in 2008, leader of the Liberal Party in 2013, and has been prime minister since 2015 after defeating the then Stephen Harper-led Conservatives. There is no obvious replacement for Trudeau after deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned last month , citing "costly political gimmicks," unrestrained spending and being at odds over the approach to the "grave challenge" of aggressive US nationalism. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened a 25pc tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico unless they tighten borders to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration into the US. Trudeau's plan to resign does not change the Conservative party's plans to call for new elections, Poilievre said today. "Every Liberal MP in power today and every potential leadership contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," he said. If elected, Poilievre plans to cut a number of environmental programs championed by the Liberals, including the carbon tax. The Conservatives support the continued use of oil and gas, exploration for hydrocarbons, and pipeline construction. The next federal election must occur on or before 25 October this year, according to the electoral calendar. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US crude output at record 13.46mn b/d in Oct: EIA

25/01/03

US crude output at record 13.46mn b/d in Oct: EIA

Calgary, 3 January (Argus) — US crude production rose to a record 13.46mn b/d in October on sustained strength in Texas and New Mexico, according to the EIA's latest Petroleum Supply Monthly report. Output rose from 13.2mn b/d in September and 13.15mn b/d in October 2023, and pushed past the previous record of 13.36mn b/d set in August. Texas pumped a record 5.86mn b/d, up from 5.8mn b/d in September and 5.57mn b/d a year earlier, while New Mexico produced 2.08mn b/d, down slightly from record highs in August and September, but up from 1.8mn b/d in October 2023. Gulf of Mexico output rebounded to 1.85mn b/d from a hurricane-affected 1.57mn b/d in September, but was down from 1.94mn b/d a year earlier. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes

25/01/03

US Congress begins with focus on energy, taxes

Some Republicans worry that their razor-thin House majority could soon see their caucus fractured, writes Chris Knight Washington, 3 January (Argus) — The new Republican majority in US Congress has set its sights on passing legislation to grow energy production, unwind climate policies and cut trillions of dollars in taxes, but doing so will require the party to overcome its history of infighting. That disharmony was on display last month, when Republicans in the House of Representatives nearly forced a government shutdown by scuttling a spending deal negotiated by their own leaders. Similar dynamics have been at play for the past two years, as rifts over how to govern made it difficult for House Republican leaders to use a tiny majority to extract policy concessions during negotiations. The first test of party unity in the 119th Congress — sworn in on 3 January — will come as House Republicans vote on whether to re-elect Mike Johnson as speaker with an even smaller majority than last year. Johnson can only afford to lose a handful of votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him, before Republicans risk a repeat of 2023, when far-right members ousted the last speaker but could not agree on a replacement for weeks. A lengthy voting impasse could delay the 6 January certification of the election victory of president-elect Donald Trump, who this week endorsed Johnson. Trump campaigned on passing legislation to allow industry to "drill, baby, drill" by increasing federal oil and gas lease sales, removing regulations and unwinding parts of outgoing president Joe Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among the options are rescinding a fee on methane emissions that started at $900/t, and requiring more oil and gas lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico. On taxes, Trump has proposed extending $4 trillion in cuts due to expire at the end of 2025, in addition to cutting corporate rates to as low as 15pc from 20pc, rescinding clean energy credits, and putting a 20pc tariff on all imports. Other items on Congress' to-do list include passing legislation to fund the government and raising the statutory limit on federal debt. Republicans also say they want to pass a bill to expedite federal permitting, after a bipartisan effort to do so failed to advance in December. Learning to two-step Republican leaders have floated a two-step plan to pass Trump's legislative agenda that would use "budget reconciliation" — a legislative manoeuvre that will prevent a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, but which limits the bill to provisions that will affect the federal budget. Senate majority leader John Thune, a Republican from Texas, has suggested packaging immigration, border security and energy policy into a first budget bill that would pass early this year. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and far more complex — budget bill that would focus on taxes and spending. But some Republicans, mindful of a slim 220-215 House majority that will temporarily shrink because of upcoming vacancies, worry the two-part strategy could fracture the caucus. Republicans have yet to decide the changes to the IRA, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans last year said they opposed a "full repeal" of the law, which disproportionately benefits districts represented by Republicans. Republicans plan to use their expanded influence to push changes at all levels of government and the work it supports. Incoming Republican chairman of the Senate energy committee John Barrasso has issued a report urging OECD energy watchdog the IEA to revive the inclusion of a "business-as-usual" reference case in its annual World Energy Outlook. Barrasso says the IEA has lost its focus on energy security and instead become a "cheerleader" for the energy transition. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eni ready for FID on Mozambique’s Coral Norte FLNG

25/01/03

Eni ready for FID on Mozambique’s Coral Norte FLNG

London, 3 January (Argus) — Italian energy firm Eni is ready to take a final investment decision (FID) on its planned 3.4mn t/yr Coral Norte floating liquefaction (FLNG) terminal in Mozambique, should the project receive authorisation from the country's government, the firm has told Argus . Eni said it expects the government's approval to be "imminent", although it did not provide a more detailed timeline. The firm said in June 2023 that it planned to start operations at the FLNG in the second half of 2027. Eni already operates Mozambique's 3.4mn t/yr Coral Sul FLNG, which started operations in late 2022 and is at present the country's only LNG terminal. Coral Norte is set to be installed 20km north of Coral Sul. There are also two onshore terminals planned for Mozambique — the TotalEnergies-led 13.1mn t/yr Mozambique LNG project and ExxonMobil's 18mn t/yr Rovuma LNG project. Both are located in the Cabo Delgado province and have been halted because of security concerns. TotalEnergies reached a financial close on their Mozambique project in 2019 and declared force majeure in 2021, though project partner Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) said in late October 2024 the force majeure could be lifted in January or February this year because of an improvement in the security situation. And ExxonMobil said in November last year it was planning to take FID on the Rovuma project at the start of 2026. By Cerys Edwards Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US sour values poised to maintain support

25/01/03

Viewpoint: US sour values poised to maintain support

Houston, 3 January (Argus) — US sour crude prices are poised to maintain recent highs if increased US Gulf coast refinery runs continue to meet market expectations of a tight market. US Gulf medium sour Mars is averaging a near 30¢/bl premium to the Nymex-quality WTI benchmark for the February US trade month to date, and held a roughly 65¢/bl premium during the January trade month, the highest level since July. January Mars averaged around $2.40/bl below March Ice Brent, marking its narrowest average discount to Ice Brent two months forward since the August trade month. US Gulf sours reached multi-year highs on 18 December supported by tight supply and high demand. Refinery runs have increased with improving margins, tightening the supply of sour crude in the US and further boosting differentials. Refinery runs nationwide rose last week by 39,000 b/d to 17mn b/d but were 89,000 b/d lower than the same week in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Companies were also heard short-covering US sours in an already tight market, likely exacerbated by end-of-year inventory drawdowns for tax purposes. Recent higher prices follow much lower relative values for Mars starting in the fall when refinery runs fell because of unfavorable margins, maintenance and US Gulf coast hurricane-related outages combined with lower export demand. Mars exports have been limited by competitive Middle Eastern term pricing for shipments to Asia-Pacific and European destinations, despite the continuation of Opec+ production cuts tightening supply. Also, blending has emerged in China for TMX-sourced Canadian heavy crude with light Murban as a Mars replacement . Offshore pipeline maintenance in October also pushed typically Texas-delivered volumes over to the Louisiana Gulf coast, adding pressure to the medium sour crude market in the region. But increased US Gulf refinery demand is leading to higher heavy Canadian crude prices at the US Gulf coast, alongside support from Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline exports and higher US midcontinent refinery demand tightening supply. Western Canadian Select (WCS) Houston averaged around a CMA Nymex -$4.00 for January trade. The January WCS Houston discount to Mars averaged about $4.60/bl but was inside $4/bl for November and December volumes. The higher Canadian crude prices are making it less economical for US refiners to blend heavy low-TAN imports with Permian WTI as a cheaper alternative substitute for Mars or other medium sours. Tax-related end-of-year inventory draw downs had tightened the market heading into the new year, but this was exacerbated by the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) being slated to receive 2.5mn bl of domestic sour crude deliveries in the first three months of 2025 . However, LyondellBasell's plan to begin shutting down its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery starting in January and stop refining crude completely by the end of the first quarter will reduce Gulf coast sour demand. Between May and September, the facility imported just under 200,000 b/d on average, with roughly 80pc being Canadian and Colombian sour crudes. Offshore US Gulf production is also expected to increase, which could ease a tight market and weigh on differentials. Chevron brought production from its 75,000 b/d Anchor platform into the Mars system in 2024, while Southern Louisiana Intermediate (SLI) and Texas-delivered SGC and HOOPS flows will receive crude from new facilities in the coming year. But EIA forecasts show total US Gulf production essentially flat from 2023 as new output is offset by natural declines. Other price-influencing factors in the coming year are less certain. Concerns surrounding the potential impact of US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose a 25pc tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico have bolstered sour crude prices in the US over recent weeks. Additionally, US medium sour crudes have been supported by Opec production cuts, with the recent decision to delay unwinding those cuts yet again, adding to the January value boost. The next Opec and Opec+ meetings are scheduled for 28 May. By Mykah Briscoe and Amanda Smith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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