Production, patience driving Canada’s oil sands profits
Canadian oil sands operators enjoying firm profits on strong production are getting ready for a major boost when a new export pipeline to the Pacific coast goes into commercial service this week.
The federally owned 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) remains on track to start operations on 1 May, and the line has already started to bear fruit. More than 4mn bl of Canadian crude is being pushed into the C$34bn ($25bn) expansion for linefill, helping to work down inventory levels in Alberta while lifting local prices relative to international benchmarks, as intended.
The largest four oil sands companies — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Cenovus, Suncor, and Imperial Oil — are all shippers on the expansion. They closed 2023 with a new production record of 3.6mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) combined in the fourth quarter, and are targeting further increases as they plan to fill the new pipeline. About 80pc of their output comes from their core oil sands businesses, with the balance from natural gas and offshore projects.
The higher output compensated for a slight dip in prices, helping to push profits higher. First-quarter 2024 results are likely to be a similar story, but it is the second quarter when producers look ready to shine as prices climb to multi-month highs. A combined profit of C$26bn in 2023 was a stellar result for the big four oil sands operators, despite a 25pc decline from the record C$34bn set the previous year. Their massive projects are agnostic to daily price swings, instead focused on uptime, long-term fundamentals and capitalising on key step-changes such as the one TMX presents. Patience in the oil sands is key.
TMX will cater largely to heavy crude producers, which saw diluted bitumen prices in Alberta rise only slightly quarter on quarter to $58/bl in the first quarter. But climbing global benchmarks in April and a shrinking heavy sour discount with the help of TMX linefill now has the outright price for the crude approaching $70/bl. This is above guidance given in 2024 corporate budgets, and far above oil sands operating costs that for some are as low as $12/bl.
The TMX factor
TMX will nearly triple the existing 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain system that connects oil-rich Alberta to the docks in Burnaby, British Columbia. The expansion was first conceived more than a decade ago with the intention of being operational by late-2017, but cost overruns and repeated delays put the project in jeopardy. Canadian producers that sought growth during that period of frustration are poised to take advantage of this new era of excess export capacity.
CNRL, Cenovus and Suncor have been significant buyers in the oil sands in recent years, doubling down on the world's third-largest deposit of oil while many international companies fled amid regulatory uncertainty. The government itself enabled a foreign operator to leave Canada, buying the Trans Mountain system from Kinder Morgan in 2018. But as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal party sees TMX to completion, and then the line's planned sale, it is also readying legislation towards something more on-brand for climate-concerned Ottawa: carbon capture.
A carbon capture and storage (CCS) project spearheaded by Pathways Alliance — a consortium of the six largest oil sands producers — is awaiting federal and provincial help to push their proposal forward. Federal incentives are soon to become law, the Trudeau government said this month, with the expectation that tax credits will advance the massive C$16.5bn project and start to offset oil sands greenhouse gas emissions to meet net zero pledges for all parties involved. TMX represents a new era for Canadian crude producers, but so too does CCS, as it could attract even more investment into Alberta's oil sands region.
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Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Calgary, 6 September (Argus) — Crude exports from Canada's west coast rose sharply in June as shippers were eager to take advantage of enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets, according to Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC). The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline nearly tripled the capacity of the original 300,000 b/d system connecting oil-rich Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, with new volumes reaching the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) midway through May. Throughputs made a step change in June, the first full month of service, highlighting the pent-up demand among shippers who had waited years for the expansion to be built. Volumes on the Trans Mountain Mainline averaged 704,000 b/d in June, up from 412,000 b/d in May and 300,000 b/d in April, TMC said in its quarterly update. Of those flows, more than half went to the WMT for export in June at 361,000 b/d, ten times the 36,000 b/d sent to the terminal in April. The WMT handled 76,000 b/d of volume in May. Levels at the WMT have held steady in July and August above 350,000 b/d, according to more recent data from Kpler. Most of the volume has gone to China and the US west coast, but cargoes have also been aimed at new markets like Brunei this week . On a quarterly basis, the Mainline handled 471,000 b/d from April-June, up from 349,000 b/d from a year earlier. The WMT handled 157,000 b/d in the second quarter, up from 39,000 b/d across the same period. The Trans Mountain system also has a terminal at the Canada-US border near Sumas, Washington, that diverts crude to refineries in Washington state via the company's 111 kilometre (69 mile) Puget Sound Pipeline. Movements on Puget Sound rose to 246,000 b/d in June, up from 241,000 b/d in May and 199,000 b/d in April. Across the quarter, Puget Sound moved 229,000 b/d, up from 233,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Carrying costs for the highly-leveraged C$34bn ($25bn) TMX project weighed on the company's earnings despite an increase in toll-related revenues. Trans Mountain ended the second quarter with C$26.2bn of total debt, up from C$20.1bn a year earlier. Trans Mountain posted a loss of C$48mn in the second quarter, down from a C$172mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Mexico City, 5 September (Argus) — Service providers for Mexico's Pemex are unable to submit new invoices for services performed nearly a year ago even as the state-owned company also struggles to pay down past bills, sources say. These unsubmitted invoices do not appear in Pemex's financial records or in its monthly supplier debt reports, three Pemex suppliers who work mostly in the northern region of the Gulf of Mexico told Argus . Pemex provides vendors a system to submit bills for review and processing, leading to an invoice codifying payments and discounts (Copades). At this stage, Pemex certifies the pending invoice, making it part of the company's monthly supplier report —a transparency measure implemented in 2021. Pemex reduced its overdue debts to service providers by 6pc from May-July, with Ps126.4bn ($6.78bn) in unpaid invoices as of 31 July, down from Ps133.9bn in May. But a significant amount of unbilled work remains because Pemex has not issued the necessary Copades for vendors to begin the payment process, and some of the bills date back to work performed in September, according to two of the vendors. Without the Copades, companies must classify these debts as uncollectible, one vendor said. The issue is concentrated in Mexico's northeast maritime region, where Pemex produces about half of its crude and gas output, according to the vendors. This region includes the Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zap fields. Pemex has requested vendors to perform tasks in the area, but the company then claims there is no budget allocated for those bills, the vendors said. This unbilled work adds to Pemex's recognized debt to suppliers, but the size of this unrecognized debt is impossible to estimate, the vendors added. Pemex's unpaid invoices and short-term vendor debts stand at record-high levels, despite receiving over $70bn in government support since 2019. By Edgar Sigler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec+ members agree to delay output increase: Update
Opec+ members agree to delay output increase: Update
Adds details from Opec statement London, 5 September (Argus) — Opec+ members have agreed to delay a plan to start increasing output by two months, following a virtual meeting today. Eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — are now scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" crude production cuts from December over a 12-month period, the Opec Secretariat said in a statement. They previously planned to start unwinding in October. The return of these barrels is still not a foregone conclusion. The eight members retain the "flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments as necessary", the secretariat said. If they go ahead with their updated plan, their collective output targets will rise by around 180,000 b/d in December. The delay to the output increase follows a steep fall in oil prices in recent days after worse-than-expected economic data in China and the US, and despite an ongoing oil blockade in Libya. The Opec statement did not specify the reason for the decision, nor did it make any note of market fundamentals. The secretariat did, however, highlight assurances by Iraq and Kazakhstan to compensate for producing above their output targets since the start of the year. Both countries have "committed to adjust compensation plans for any over produced volumes in August", Opec said. By Aydin Calik, Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec+ members agree to delay output increase
Opec+ members agree to delay output increase
London, 5 September (Argus) — Opec+ members have agreed to delay a plan to start increasing output by two months to December, a delegate source told Argus . Eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — had been preparing to start returning 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude output cuts from October over a 12-month period, as agreed in June . The move follows a steep fall in oil prices in recent days after worse than expected economic data in China and the US, and despite an ongoing oil blockade in Libya. By Aydin Calik, Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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