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E3 seeks IAEA action against Iranian nuclear activity

  • : Crude oil, Electricity, Metals
  • 24/05/30

The E3 group — a diplomatic coalition comprising France, the UK and Germany — has prepared a draft resolution against Iran for the UN's nuclear watchdog the IAEA to consider at its board of governors meeting next week.

The draft focuses on a probe into two previously undeclared nuclear sites in Iran and suggests the possibility that IAEA chief Rafael Grossi might provide a more "comprehensive report" on Tehran's nuclear activities than his regular quarterly ones. But it stops short of asking the IAEA to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance, a diplomatic source with knowledge of the matter told Argus.

"The E3 has prepared a draft resolution and circulated it, despite opposition by the US," the source said. "They have also begun negotiations with other members of the board of governors to ensure the largest number of votes… which will give the adopted resolution weight."

The draft builds on three previous resolutions against Iran "but will stop short of a very important step — referring the issue to the UN Security Council as a situation of non-compliance, which would require an intervention," the source said.

Since June 2020, the IAEA's board of governors has adopted three resolutions against Iran in response to insufficient co-operation on outstanding issues relating to its legal obligations under its Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Safeguards Agreement. The board of governors will convene on 3 June for a week-long meeting, where "the draft resolution is surely going for a vote," the source said, an indication that unanimity among the 35 board members is unlikely.

The US is keen to manage tensions with Tehran at a highly sensitive time for the country following the death of its president and foreign minister in a helicopter crash earlier this month. An editorial published by Iran's state news agency Irna on 29 May suggests Washington's concerns may not be unfounded.

"As per previous experience, if a resolution is issued against Iran, Tehran will react to it and take countermeasures," the editorial said.

Iran responded to two previous IAEA resolutions in June and November 2022 by removing more than 20 IAEA surveillance cameras at its nuclear facilities, and starting the production of 60pc enriched uranium at its Fordow nuclear site.

"Based on history, issuing this resolution will be more detrimental to those issuing it than to Iran," Irna said.

Building blocks

"What is happening right now is the process of accumulation of resolutions, so that when the day comes and the IAEA makes a referral to the UN Security Council, there will be enough resolutions to make a case for action at the security council level," the source noted.

Concerns among western officials over Iran's nuclear activity have been mounting since Tehran began breaching restrictions in 2019 in response to former US president Donald Trump's decision to pull Washington out of a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and a group of world powers. Iran is enriching uranium to up to 60pc purity, according to the IAEA. Near 90pc is considered to be weapons grade.


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24/12/12

Rio Tinto to invest $2.5bn in Argentina lithium mine

Rio Tinto to invest $2.5bn in Argentina lithium mine

Montevideo, 12 December (Argus) — International miner Rio Tinto will invest $2.5bn to expand its Rincon lithium operation, potentially increasing Argentina's production of the metal six-fold in the next decade, it said today. The company began initial production at Rincon's 3,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr starter plant in November. Rincon in Argentina's northern Salta province is Rio Tinto's first commercial lithium operation. It taps brine lithium. In October, it finalized the acquisition of Rincon from US-based Arcadium Lithium. The new investment will increase annual production to 60,000t of battery grade lithium carbonate. Construction on the expansion should start in mid-2025 and ramped-up production using direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology should start in 2028, eventually reaching capacity early in the next decade. The project will add to Argentina's efforts to become a world-class energy player with lithium, LNG and oil exports transforming the country in the coming years. Argentina was the fourth lithium producer in 2023, with 9,600t, according to the US Geological Survey. It has 3.6mn t of lithium reserves and 22mn t of lithium resources, second only to neighboring Bolivia. Argentina, Bolivia and Chile form the "lithium triangle," which holds around 60pc of the world's lithium resources. Chile is the world's second producer after Austria, while Bolivia's production is negligible. Rio Tinto referenced Argentina's economic reforms, including an incentive mechanism for long-term investments, known as the RIGI, as providing a new environment for investment. The RIGI is applicable to investments over $200mn and provides tax and customs benefits, as well as legal stability. Rio Tinto would join eight projects that have already applied for RIGI approval. President Javier Milei announced on 10 December, his first anniversary in office, that the government was planning sweeping tax reforms that would lower 90pc of the country's taxes, and elimination of exchange rate and customs controls. Monthly inflation in November was 2.4pc, down from 25.5pc in December 2023. In a September 2024 report, the Argentinian government listed 50 lithium projects, with 6pc producing the white metal, 10pc under construction and 14pc in the feasibility phase. The rest were in the initial development stage. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA


24/12/12
24/12/12

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Syrah declares Mozambique graphite plant force majeure


24/12/12
24/12/12

Syrah declares Mozambique graphite plant force majeure

Singapore, 12 December (Argus) — Sydney-based graphite producer Syrah Resources has declared a force majeure for its Balama operations in Mozambique and defaulted on US government-backed debt, given post-election civil unrest in Mozambique. This came as Syrah is unable to carry out production at Balama throughout October-December to replenish inventory and to sell to customers, because of a protest that had began at the site in late September, forcing a force majeure event. Syrah back in October said the protest is disrupting site access and causing production uncertainty. The firm is one of the few established non-Chinese graphite producers. The protest was originally linked to farmers with "historical farmland resettlement grievances", Syrah said. But it has persisted and worsened after Mozambique's general election in October, which triggered violent protests across the country's major cities given claims of electoral fraud. "The protest actions have been peaceful with no evident actions to deliberately damage property, plant or equipment at Balama," said Syrah. But efforts to reach a positive resolution have been "unsuccessful to date", it added. Syrah is still working on restoring operations "as quick as possible" but has acknowledged that any resolution will be a lengthy process. The Balama site has not been producing graphite since July, according to Syrah, owing to sufficient inventory for sales and low graphite fines demand. Balama produced around 24,000t of natural graphite during the April-June quarter. Syrah has been operating Balama in short "campaign" stints this year owing to insufficient market demand at times. The protest also triggered events of default on its loans with the US International Development Finance (DFC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE), given the "impacts and duration" of the protest. The US DFC pledged its first loan to a graphite operation to Syrah, which amounted to $150mn. Syrah also received a $102mn loan facility with US DOE for the expansion of its Syrah Vidalia anode active material facility in US. Syrah is engaging with US DFC and DOE on its defaults, it said.Australian mining company South32 earlier this month withdrew the production guidance for its Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique because of riots and road blockages. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA defends 'good neighbor' efficacy


24/12/11
24/12/11

EPA defends 'good neighbor' efficacy

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) responded to concerns raised by the US Supreme Court in June by defending the efficacy of the "good neighbor" plan in reducing NOx emissions regardless of the number of participating states. The high court's concerns were over the issue of severability — that is, how effective the good neighbor plan would be in lowering ozone season NOx emissions if only some of the original 23 states participated. In other words, it is the question of whether the emissions limits placed on states as part of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) cap-and-trade program under the plan would have changed based on the number of participating states. In a notice published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, EPA rejected the idea that the effectiveness of the good neighbor plan — and as a result, the NOx emissions limits imposed on each state — would wane if the number of participating states changed. Instead, the agency said that its plan is "by design severable by state" because the NOx emissions limits are imposed on individual sources rather than the states themselves. Each participating state's emissions obligations depend on the number of obligated power plants, their emissions and the types of emissions reduction measures they already have in place. As a result, pausing the imposition of tighter NOx limits under the good neighbor plan in certain states does not affect the NOx limits imposed in other participating states, EPA said. In a similar vein, EPA addressed concerns that the larger version of the CSAPR Group 3 seasonal NOx allowance trading program established under the good neighbor plan would become more illiquid if it covered fewer states than planned, which could lead to a smaller supply of allowances and higher prices. Calling those concerns "unjustified", the agency said that states can withdraw their sources from a trading program by submitting their own ozone reduction plans. EPA also cited previous instances from past cross-state ozone programs where the number of participating states has changed, noting that there has been no evidence of allowance shortages. EPA also responded to concerns that it used an inconsistent methodology to determine emissions obligations for each source — including the emissions reduction strategies that could be used and their associated costs. The agency said it used a methodology that was "nearly identical to prior good neighbor rules" and considered NOx reduction technologies that have been in place "for decades throughout the US." The severability issue was raised by the Supreme Court in June, when it paused implementation of the good neighbor plan nationwide. The court majority said that EPA did not provide a sufficient explanation in response to public comments from states that highlighted those concerns — especially because, until the court issued its stay, only 10 states were participating in the good neighbor plan because of lower court stays. But in September, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit allowed EPA to respond to the issue of severability, while it paused related litigation. EPA finalized the "good neighbor" plan last year to help downwind states meet the 2015 federal ozone standards. It imposed more rigorous CSAPR ozone season NOx emissions limits on more than 20 states and called for new NOx limits for industrial sources. Illiquidity has been persistent in the CSAPR market, depressing activity and keeping prices steady for almost a year because of uncertainty surrounding the numerous legal challenges against the plan. The ozone season runs from May-September each year. With plan halted for the time being, EPA has returned to less-stringent seasonal NOx budgets and reshuffled the remaining participating states into the Group 2 and new "expanded" Group 2 markets, leaving the Group 3 market empty. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 29 grids, storage pledge signatories released


24/12/11
24/12/11

Cop 29 grids, storage pledge signatories released

London, 11 December (Argus) — The final list of signatories for pledges on expanding energy storage and grid capacity taken at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, was released today, almost four weeks after the commitment was first finalised, with 58 countries out of almost 200 Cop parties taking part. Signatories commit to a collective goal of increasing electricity storage capacity to 1500GW by 2030, a sixfold increase from 2022. Another pledge is to add or refurbish 25mn km of grid infrastructure by 2030, and recognise the need for an additional 65mn km by 2040. Lack of firm, clean power generators to back up intermittent renewables is a major barrier to increasing renewable penetration, while distributed resources require large investments in power grids to transport electricity to consumers. The list of 58 signatory countries includes the so-called troika of Cop host countries the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil. The US and all other G7 member states are present, with the exception of France. Also absent among major economies are China and Russia, while Saudi Arabia spoke in support of the pledges during Cop but does not appear on the list of signatories. In comparison, almost 120 countries had signed a pledge to triple global renewable capacity double global energy efficiency by 2030 during the Cop 28 summit in Dubai last year. The grids and storage pledges were one of the centrepiece announcements made by the Azeri host, following on from the calls made in Dubai on renewable capacity and energy efficiency, but also on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. But divergences on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — during the summit this year, meant that the completed pledge, as well as any other specific mentions of fuels and energy transition technologies, were not included in final outcome texts. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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