Latest market news

EU oilseed crushing down in June

  • : Agriculture, Biofuels
  • 24/07/19

Sunflower, rapeseed and soybean crushing in EU and UK mills fell on the month to the lowest recorded total volume in eight months, driven by limited availability of old-crop rapeseed and a delayed start to this year's harvest after a run of poor weather.

Crush levels down

  • Rapeseed crushing fell to a 13-month low of 1,380mn t, its lowest since June 2023's 1,355mn t.
  • Sunflower crushing fell to a 10-month low at 469mn t, its lowest volume since September 2023's 369mn t.
  • Soybean crushing fell to a five-month low at 1,097mn t, its lowest volume since February at 1,053mn t.
  • Total crushing fell to an eight-month low of 2,946mn t, its lowest volume since October 2023 at 2,913mn t.
  • Poor harvest conditions across Europe reduced 2024-25 yields, supporting rapeseed prices as well as RSO values, albeit to a lesser extent.
  • After months of prolonged cold, Ukraine and southern Russia experienced very hot and dry weather in June, and heavy rains struck parts of western Europe, including Germany and France. Intense heat also struck parts of the US east coast, while the Midwest and Brazil experienced flooding that submerged soybean crops.

High July prices

  • Low crush levels in June have, in recent sessions, pushed up vegetable oil prices to multi-month highs, squeezing biodiesel production margins.
  • The spot six ports sunflower oil (SFO) price was last assessed at a one-year high at €1,081.50/t on 17 July.
  • The spot fob Dutch mill rapeseed oil (RSO) value reached a nine-month high at €1,031.50/t on 8 July, as a result of limited availability of old-crop rapeseed to process and lower forecasts for new crop in main producing countries.
  • The Chicago-listed Cbot soybean oil month 1 and 2 price — currently, July and August — reached a four-month high on 5 July.
  • High prices have squeezed crush margins along the curve, prompting European oil mill operators to move to the sidelines in recent sessions, holding back on any fresh RSO sales, and some have even begun washing out old contracts in Europe due to poor esterification margins, linked to a drop in biodiesel prices.
  • Continental biodiesel demand has been weak generally, although this is more linked to a weaker diesel complex amid a broader economic slowdown and a further shift towards gasoline and electric vehicles. Front-month prices for Ice gasoil, a diesel futures contract, hit the lowest since June 2023 at the beginning of June. Diesel demand is not only down year on year but is considerably lower compared with pre-Covid 19 levels in some of Europe's largest economies.

EU-27 + UK crushing volumesmn t
Jun-24May-24Month-on-month (%)Jun-23Year-on-year (%)
Soybean11-7%1-3%
Sunflower seed01-10%06%
Rapeseed12-13%11%
Semi-refined00-12%0-7%
Fully-refined11-7%15%

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24/07/23

Bipartisan bill would extend blenders tax credit

Bipartisan bill would extend blenders tax credit

New York, 23 July (Argus) — A bipartisan group of lawmakers has proposed legislation to extend an expiring tax credit for biodiesel and renewable diesel that are blended into the US fuel supply. The bill, which was introduced by representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and is pending before the House of Representatives' Ways and Means Committee, would specifically extend a credit offering $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel through 2025. The credit is otherwise set to expire at the end of this year and be replaced in January by the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit, which will be more generous to fuels with lower carbon intensities. The text of the bill has not yet been released. But a draft version shared with Argus by an external group would restrict fuel that is "allowed" a credit under 45Z from also qualifying for the reinstated credit for blenders, a provision that seems to primarily benefit fuel imports. The expiring biodiesel credit allows fuel produced outside the US to qualify, since the credit is claimed by blenders instead of producers, while the new 45Z credit is specifically for refiners producing fuel in the US. The US administration's timeline for finalizing guidance around 45Z is unclear, to the frustration of biofuels groups that have warned that prolonged uncertainty could jeopardize planned investments aimed at boosting production and feedstock supply. An extension of the existing biodiesel credit could potentially provide more certainty to the biofuels supply chain. Fuel retailers that had previously warned that shifting the credit from blenders to producers will raise fuel prices for consumers, including the National Association of Truck Stop Owners and the Society of Independent Gasoline Marketers of America, commended Carey's proposal. But the tax credit extension would also upend other incentives driving biofuel production. The 45Z credit offers up to $1/USG for road fuels, but incentives are more generous the fewer greenhouse gas emissions a fuel produces, whereas the expiring credit does not adjust benefits based on carbon intensity. In addition, prolonging incentives to import fuels could hurt domestic producers and lead to wider biodiesel and renewable diesel availability, potentially weighing on prices of renewable identification number (RIN) credits that refiners submit to regulators to comply with the renewable fuel standard. Market participants have generally expected that prices for RINs, which also act as a source of revenue and incentive to produce low-carbon fuels, will rise next year to account for 45Z providing less of a subsidy than the expiring credit. Clean Fuels Alliance America, which represents biomass-based diesel and sustainable aviation fuel companies, declined to comment or take a position on the legislation. But the group said that it would continue advocating for President Joe Biden's administration to swiftly propose and finalize 45Z guidance. The bill currently has four sponsors, three Republicans and one Democrat, but it is tough to gauge how broad support for any credit extension would be within Congress. It is not uncommon for Congress to pass legislation near the end of the year extending or reinstating tax credits that would have otherwise expired, and various energy tax credits were extended in Congress' lame duck session after the 2020 presidential election. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House passes waterways bill


24/07/23
24/07/23

US House passes waterways bill

Houston, 23 July (Argus) — The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a bill on Monday authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to tackle a dozen port, inland waterway and other water infrastructure projects. The Republican-led House voted 359-13 to pass the Waterways Resources Development Act (WRDA), which authorizes the Corps to proceed with plans to upgrade the Seagirt Loop Channel near Baltimore Harbor in Maryland. The bill also will enable the Corps to move forward with 160 feasibility studies, including a $314mn resiliency study of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, which connects ports along the Gulf of Mexico from St Marks, Florida, to Brownsville, Texas. Water project authorization bills typically are passed every two years and generally garner strong bipartisan support because they affect numerous congressional districts. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee unanimously passed its own version of the bill on 22 May. That bill does not include an adjustment to the cost-sharing structure for lock and dam construction and other rehabilitation projects. The Senate's version is expected to reach the floor before 2 August, before lawmakers break for their August recess. The Senate is not scheduled to reconvene until 9 September. If the Senate does not pass an identical version of the bill, lawmakers will have to meet in a conference committee to work out the differences. WRDA is "our legislative commitment to investing in and protecting our communities from flooding and droughts, restoring our environment and ecosystems and keeping our nation's competitiveness by supporting out ports and harbors", representative Grace Napolitano (D-California) said. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House to vote on waterways bill


24/07/22
24/07/22

US House to vote on waterways bill

Houston, 22 July (Argus) — The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on 22 July on a waterways bill that would authorize new infrastructure projects across ports and rivers. The Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) is renewed typically every two years to authorize projects for the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The bipartisan bill is sponsored by representative Rick Larsen (D-Washington) and committee chairman Sam Graves (R-Missouri). The full committee markup occurred 26 June, where amendments were added, and the bill was passed to the full House . A conference committee will need to be called to resolve the different versions of the bill. The major difference between the bills is that the House bill does not include an adjustment to the cost-sharing structure for the lock and dam construction and other rehabilitation projects. The Senate Committee on Environment Public Works passed its own version of the bill on 22 May, with all members in favor of the bill. The House version of the bill approves modifications to the Seagirt Loop Channel near the Baltimore Harbor in Maryland, along with 11 other projects and 160 feasibility studies. One of these studies is a $314.25mn resiliency study of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, which connects ports along the Gulf of Mexico from St Marks, Florida, to Brownsville, Texas. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Large US corn, soy acreage remains unplanted


24/07/19
24/07/19

Large US corn, soy acreage remains unplanted

New York, 19 July (Argus) — Considerable US corn and soybeans acreage has yet to be planted this season, with the ongoing drop in prices offering little incentive for farmers to complete sowing. But potentially record yields for both crops has at least some market participants less worried. The slower planting could lead to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revising down corn and soybeans acreage figures, the US balance sheet tightening, and ending stock projections potentially being cut. Market participants are currently focused on summer weather, as it plays a major role in determining the final yield for both corn and soybeans. But if corn acreage decreases by 1mn acres to 90.5mn acres, corn yields would have to increase by 2 bushels per acre — or 1.1pc — to keep corn production flat. Similarly, a 1mn acre decrease in soybeans planted to 85.12mn acres would require yields to increase by 0.6 bushels per acre, or by 1.2pc, to have production remain stable. And while the increase in yields might not seem large, it would be record yields for both corn and soybeans if achieved. In its 28 June acreage report, the USDA said 3.3mn acres of corn, or 3.7pc of the total corn acreage, and 12.8mn acres of soybeans, 14.8pc of total soybean acreage, were left to be planted. The latest available data for the week ending 7 July shows that there were 1.9mn acres of corn unplanted, 23pc more than the three-year average, and 1.5mn acres of soybeans unplanted, 25pc above the three-year average. The year 2022 serves as a good comparison for 2024. In 2022, 4mn acres of corn, or 4.5pc of corn acreage, and 15.8mn acres of soybean (18pc), were still unplanted when the USDA published its annual report at the end of June. The actual planted acres for 2022 showed that 1.8mn acres of corn and 875,000 acres of soybeans were not planted, according to the USDA. In 2022, the main contributors to the lower final acreage were states that initially had the largest increase in the June acreage report. Corn and soybean prices, as measured by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures price, were down 11pc in June 2022 causing farmers to rethink their planting intentions. During June 2024, CBOT corn prices fell by 11pc and soybean prices were down by 5pc. The latest farmers can plant their crops is June, as any crop planted later would mature too late and be at risk of frost damage. The states of Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska had the largest projected increase in corn acreage in the June acreage report, at 1.15mn acres. That report forecast soybean acreage to increase by 600,000 acres for Kansas, Illinois and Minnesota. But the lower corn and soybean prices might lead those farmers to reconsider some of those acres. That said, at least some market participants were not too concerned with lower acreage. The favorable July weather in the Midwest has some market participants anticipating record yields for both corn and soybeans, above the 181 bushels per acre for corn and 52 bushels per acre for soybeans that the USDA currently forecasts. By Eduardo Gonzalez Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Von der Leyen faces new Green Deal challenges


24/07/19
24/07/19

Von der Leyen faces new Green Deal challenges

The president promises a ‘clean industrial deal', but will need to make compromises over climate policy, writes Dafydd ab Iago Brussels, 19 July (Argus) — Ursula von der Leyen's re-election by the European Parliament as president of the European Commission on 18 July promises to see a doubling down on climate and energy policy, with her 2024-29 mandate stipulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts of at least 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990. "I have not forgotten how [Russian president Vladimir] Putin blackmailed us by cutting us off from Russian fossil fuels. We invested massively in homegrown cheap renewables and this enabled us to break free from dirty Russian fossil fuels," von der Leyen says, promising to end the "era of dependency on Russian fossil fuels". She has not given an end date for this, nor specified if this includes a commitment to ending Russian LNG imports. Von der Leyen went on to detail political guidelines for 2024-29. She has pledged to propose a "clean industrial deal" in the first 100 days of her new mandate, albeit without giving concrete figures about how much investment this would channel to infrastructure and industry, particularly for energy-intensive sectors. The clean industrial deal will help bring down energy bills, she says. Von der Leyen told parliament that the commission would propose legislation, under the European Climate Law, establishing a 90pc emissions-reduction target for 2040. Her political guidelines also call for scaling up and prioritising investment in clean technologies, including grid infrastructure, storage capacity, transport for captured CO2, energy efficiency, power digitalisation and a hydrogen network. She plans to extend aggregate demand mechanisms beyond gas to include hydrogen and critical raw materials, and notes the dangers of dependencies and fraying supply chains — from Putin's energy blackmail to China's monopoly on battery and chip raw materials. Majority report Passing the necessary legislation to implement her stated policies will now require approval from EU states and parliament. Unless amplified by Germany's election next year, election victories by far-right parties in France and elsewhere appear not to threaten EU state majorities for specific legislation. Parliament's political centre-left S&D and liberal Renew groups, as well as von der Leyen's own centre-right European People's Party (EPP), have elaborated key policy requests. These broadly call for the continuation of the European Green Deal — a set of legislation and policy measures aimed at 55pc GHG emissions reductions by 2030 compared with 1990. A symbolic issue for von der Leyen to decide on — or compromise on — is that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. EPP wants to stick to technological neutrality and revise the current mandate for sales of new ICE cars to be phased out by 2035, if they cannot run exclusively on carbon-neutral fuels. The EPP wants an e-fuel, biofuel and low-carbon fuel strategy. Von der Leyen's guidelines reflect the need to gain support from centre-right, centre-left and greens. She says the 2035 climate neutrality target for new cars creates investor and manufacturer "predictability" but requires a "technology-neutral approach, in which e-fuels have a role to play". She has not mentioned carbon-neutral biofuels. It will be impossible for von der Leyen to satisfy all demands in her second mandate. This includes policy requests put forward by the EPP, ranging from a "pragmatic" definition of low-carbon hydrogen and market rules for carbon capture and storage, to postponing the EU's deforestation regulation. EU member states are expected to propose their candidates for commissioners in August, including for energy, climate and trade policy, with von der Leyen's new commission subject to a final vote in parliament in late October. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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