Finnish, Baltic gas demand up by 13pc on year in July
Combined Finnish and Baltic gas consumption increased on the year in July, but remained firmly below pre-2022 levels.
Combined demand in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last month rose to 2.37TWh from 2.1TWh in July 2023, although it was still well below the 2018-21 average of roughly 3.7TWh (see graph, data and download). This was a second consecutive month-on-month increase following demand at a near two-year low in May. Demand increasing between May and July is an unusual pattern, as pre-2022 consumption in the region tended to decline over the course of the summer before reaching a nadir in July or August.
The power sector was probably the main contributing factor to higher overall gas demand, as year-on-year increases in Latvian and Lithuanian gas-fired output more than offset lower Finnish generation (see table). In Latvia in particular, gas-fired generation jumped more than seven times compared with a year earlier, despite power demand remaining stable and hydropower output nearly doubling. Instead, Latvian gas-fired production displaced some net imports, which fell to 258GWh from 372GWh in July last year. Latvian gas demand peaked over the month at 27 GWh/d on 22-26 July, drastically above the average for other days of just 8 GWh/d. These were the same days that Latvia produced the majority of July's gas-fired power.
Prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange averaged €37.84/MWh in July, down by 5pc on the month but up by 3pc on the year. July broke the three-month trend of consecutive month-on-month increases, with prices having fallen in all four markets. Firms traded 500GWh on the exchange, up from 358GWh in July last year. Lithuania accounted for 40pc of trades, followed by the joint Latvian-Estonian market at 35pc and Finland with the remaining quarter.
Maintenance to change flows
Maintenance at the pivotal Kiemenai interconnection point on the Latvia-Lithuania border for most of August will change regional flow dynamics.
No capacity will be available in either direction at Kiemenai on the 3-25 August gas days, making it impossible to send regasified LNG from Lithuania's Klaipeda LNG terminal northward to Latvia for storage at the Incukalns facility. Klaipeda sendout consequently has dropped since 3 August, averaging 29 GWh/d on 3-8 August, compared with 101 GWh/d in July.
Despite the maintenance and demand remaining stable, an additional LNG delivery for 10 August was added to Klaipeda's schedule. This half-cargo may be mostly destined for reloads, as four small-scale reloads are planned at Klaipeda after the 10 August delivery. Some of these reloads could potentially go to Finland's off-grid terminals at Tornio and Pori, which are no longer supplied with Russian LNG after Gasum halted its purchases in late July because of sanctions.
But while maintenance at Kiemenai has started, restrictions further north on the Balticconnector have ended, enabling sendout from the Inkoo terminal to step up significantly to 85 GWh/d on 1-8 August from a much lower 32 GWh/d in July. Planned maintenance reduced capacity from Finland to Estonia on the Balticconnector to just 5 GWh/d for all of July, limiting sendout from Inkoo only to what could be absorbed by the domestic market and the small amount that could be sent southward. Maintenance also will reduce Finnish exit capacity to Estonia to zero on 14-27 October and 4-17 November.
| Finnish + Baltic July gas-fired power generation | GWh | ||||
| Jul-24 | Jul-23 | Jun-24 | ± Jul 23 | ± Jun 24 | |
| Estonia | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvia | 79 | 11 | 3 | 68 | 76 |
| Lithuania | 74 | 31 | 53 | 43 | 21 |
| Finland | 28 | 117 | 40 | -89 | -12 |
| Total | 183 | 161 | 98 | 22 | 85 |
| — Fraunhofer ISE | |||||
Related news posts
German court stops N05-A gas field construction again
German court stops N05-A gas field construction again
London, 8 August (Argus) — A German court has annulled the permit for a seafloor cable necessary for the planned gas drilling platform N05-A in the Dutch and German North Sea on environmental grounds. Lower Saxony state water authority NLWKN had upheld an earlier permit decision on 19 July against a complaint by environmental organisation DUH, which had argued that stone reefs discovered in the area deserved additional environmental protection. The administrative court at Oldenburg annulled the permit today after DUH had sued NLWKN, saying that the permit was "likely to be unlawful upon summary examination of the factual and legal situation". NLWKN had ordered a compensation payment without sufficiently weighing up conservation interests against other interests, the court said. The underwater power cable is intended to connect the gas extraction platform in the Dutch North Sea with a nearby wind farm on the German side of the border. DUH has repeatedly called on the Lower Saxony authorities to withdraw the permit on the grounds of new information for the environmental impact assessment. The N05-A gas project has been met with continuous opposition from environmental groups as well as local municipal authorities. They had achieved a temporary stop to construction in early June at a Dutch court, which was subsequently lifted . Greenpeace protested at the construction site on 31 July, before operator firm ONE-Dyas achieved an injunction at a Dutch court to stop Greenpeace from obstructing the installation. ONE-Dyas "has received all necessary permits to start gas extraction" from the Dutch side, the firm told Argus in June. But no permit is in place to extract any gas from the German side of the gas field as yet. And any further delay would probably move the timeline for first gas substantially back from December this year, ONE-Dyas said previously. The Dutch government granted an extraction and construction permit for the N05-A field in 2022. The field could produce about 2bn m³/yr in its initial phase, ONE-Dyas said previously. NLWKN or ONE-Dyas can escalate the decision to the next higher court for an appeal, the court said. By Till Stehr Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's Bndes to finance state power distributor
Brazil's Bndes to finance state power distributor
Sao Paulo, 8 August (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R1.394bn ($247mn) in financing for Rio Grande do Sul state's largest power distributor, in yet another effort to aid the flood-hit state. The bank will award the money to power distributor RGE Sul to "adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects from the extreme weather events that affected Rio Grande do Sul in May," it said, referring to the devastating floods that hit the state earlier this year. RGE Sul is responsible for around 65pc of the power in Rio Grande do Sul, with approximately 7.1mn clients. The financing will also allow the state to maintain power prices stable until 2026, Bndes said. "This Bndes support will be essential to ensure that Rio Grande do Sul's population does not suffer from any adjustments to their electricity tariffs," mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira said. That is the latest in a series of government measures to aid the flood-ravaged state. In early May, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a decree to ease relief spending . The country also launched a R50.9bn multi-step program to aid victims. Bndes created a R15bn fund — dubbed the Bndes emergency program for Rio Grande do Sul — of which it has approved R4.8bn, it said. The heavy rains in late April and early May left around 150 dead and more than 500,000 displaced, according to Rio Grande do Sul's civil defense. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s 1H large-scale renewable approvals rise
Australia’s 1H large-scale renewable approvals rise
Sydney, 8 August (Argus) — Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) approved 24pc more large-scale renewable energy capacity in this year's first half compared with a year earlier, while large-scale generation certificates (LGCs) held in the local registry also increased. The CER approved 1,175MW under the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) scheme over January-June, up from 949MW in the same period of 2023 and the highest for a first half since 2020 when 2,146MW was accredited, CER data show. Total approved capacity in 2023 reached 2,206MW , slightly above 2022 but almost half of the record highs of 4,110MW in 2019 and 4,070MW in 2020. LRET-accredited plants can issue LGCs and sell them to liable entities under Australia's Renewable Energy Target, mainly electricity retailers that need to surrender the certificates to the CER on an annual basis. LGCs can also be sold to companies and individuals looking to support their emissions reduction claims. Total LGCs in the local renewable energy certificate registry reached 28.45mn at the end of June this year, or the equivalent of 28.45TWh, with each certificate representing 1MWh of renewable power. This is up from 24.66TWh in the same period of 2023, according to CER data. Accounts held by major utilities including Origin Energy, Alinta Energy, AGL and EnergyAustralia were among the largest LGC holders at the end of the first half of the year ( see table ). Total operational accredited capacity under the LRET reached 20,971MW in June. The CER also reported 7,853MW of committed capacity from large-scale renewable projects that received all development approvals and reached a final investment decision by the end of the first half. There was also 4,391MW of "probable" projects, or those that have announced power purchase agreements with strong counterparties or provided other evidence of funding. By Juan Weik Australia top 10 LGC account holdings* Origin Energy 4,247,730 AquaSure 1,772,066 Alinta Energy - GreenPower account 970,732 AGL HP2 933,377 EnergyAustralia 916,174 Synergy 843,747 Stanwell 719,831 Alinta Energy 652,988 Origin Energy - GreenPower account 635,489 Snowy Hydro - GreenPower account 628,376 Source: CER * as of 30 June 2024 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
North Sea pipe outage reshapes Danish, Polish gas flows
North Sea pipe outage reshapes Danish, Polish gas flows
London, 7 August (Argus) — Unplanned maintenance halving capacity on the pipeline that takes Norwegian gas to Denmark and Poland has led to a reconfiguration of flows and prompted unseasonal withdrawals from Danish storage. Leaking internal valves at the Europipe II terminal will halve Baltic Pipe's capacity to 161 GWh/d until the end of the 12 August gas day, Danish system operator Energinet said on 2 August. Europipe II carries gas to Germany's Dornum terminal and a spur links it to Baltic Pipe, which crosses Denmark and ends in Poland. Norwegian deliveries to Denmark at Nybro initially collapsed to 201GWh on 31 July, down from 317 GWh/d in the previous seven days. Nybro flows continued lower at 161 GWh/d on 2-6 August. Denmark can easily meet its limited summer consumption — about 28 GWh/d in the past week — using domestically produced natural gas and biogas. But Poland consumes much more — 360 GWh/d on 30 July-5 August. The remaining Norwegian gas delivered through Baltic Pipe, plus sendout from Poland's Swinoujscie LNG terminal, are insufficient to meet this demand and support storage injections, so gas has to reach Poland from other sources. Direct deliveries to Poland from Germany at the Mallnow interconnection point have risen in recent days, reaching 22GWh on 6 August, up from 5 GWh/d in the last week of July. But a high tariff for using the Yamal-Europe pipeline in Poland, as well as an additional entry fee into the Polish grid from the pipeline, limits the attractiveness of the Mallnow route, so flows there have not picked up enough to meet demand. But Poland's receipts from Denmark at Faxe have held stable even as Denmark's Norwegian receipts have dropped ( see Nybro v Faxe graph ). Danish deliveries to Poland have been supplemented by an unseasonal switch to withdrawals from Danish storage. Danish storage has reacted flexibly to meet Poland's import demand during the Norwegian shortfall ( see storage movements graph ). The stockbuild in Poland has continued, although it has fallen to 120 GWh/d since Europe II maintenance began from 212 GWh/d the week before. Polish storage sites are already about 90pc full. But firms active in Denmark and Poland may have decided to withdraw from Danish storage as these facilities are faster cycling, allowing scope for summer withdrawals while still making it possible to refill sites ahead of winter. Many European companies use Danish storage, including Polish state-controlled PGNiG. Germany takes more Norwegian gas Europipe II flows that would otherwise have headed to Denmark have been redirected to Germany's Dornum, pushing Germany to export more to its neighbours. Receipts of Norwegian gas at Dornum have risen substantially since the drop in flows to Denmark ( see Europipe II graph ). The Danish day-ahead price has shot up relative to Germany's THE , reaching the highest premium on Argus record at nearly €5/MWh on Tuesday ( see prices graph ). For Polish firms seeking to avoid the expensive Mallnow import route, the alternative of importing from Germany through Denmark comes with capacity constraints. German exports to Denmark have resumed after halting in February, but averaged just 15 GWh/d on 31 July-6 August. Little firm German exit capacity is available at the Ellund point and this capacity is frequently interrupted, market participants have said. The surplus gas arriving in Germany has weighed on THE relative to other European markets. The German day-ahead price has remained consistently below the Dutch TTF in recent weeks. Gas-hungry Germany typically holds a premium to the TTF to attract gas, including LNG arriving in the Netherlands. But well-filled storage sites in Germany — these stood at over 90pc of capacity over the weekend — combined with low summer demand mean the country cannot absorb all the additional Norwegian supply. Besides an uptick in exports to Denmark and Poland, gross German exports to the Netherlands have stepped up in recent days. Imports from the Netherlands, as well as Belgium, have waned over the last week, while exports to Austria and the Czech Republic have risen. By Till Stehr Baltic pipe Nybro imports vs. Faxe exports €/MWh Danish storage movements vs. net Baltic pipe flows GWh/d Danish and German prices €/MWh Europipe II deliveries split GWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more