Works to stop Leuna refinery bitumen output in October
Bitumen production at TotalEnergies' 240,000 b/d Leuna refinery in northeast Germany will be halted for the duration of a major planned month-long maintenance shutdown at the refinery starting in early October, market participants said today.
With the halt having been planned well in advance, the market sources indicated stocks of the heavy oil product used for road paving and other construction work were currently being built up to manage supply during the shutdown period. That will help meet peak season requirements for road and other project work during the autumn and mitigate the impact of the bitumen stoppage at one of Germany's key bitumen-producing refineries.
German market participants have indicated over the past few days that some maintenance work began at the refinery on 6 September ahead of the planned shutdown of oil products units there at the start of October, with diesel stocks being raised ahead of the turnaround.
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IEA cuts global refinery runs forecast
IEA cuts global refinery runs forecast
London, 12 September (Argus) — The IEA has trimmed its forecast for global refinery runs in 2024-25 as weakening refining margins weigh on throughput. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the IEA said it expects global crude throughput at 83mn b/d this year, down from its previous projection of 83.3mn b/d. The agency puts throughput in 2025 at 83.7mn b/d, down from 83.9mn b/d previously. Economic run cuts are expected in the second half of this year as a result of a deterioration in refining margins, the IEA said. Some operators may not cut runs quickly enough in concert with other refiners to support margins, it said, although it noted that Atlantic basin refinery turnarounds this autumn should boost refined product values. The IEA forecasts that refinery runs will contract by 100,000 b/d each in OECD and non-OECD Europe this year compared with 2023, as refineries in the region temper throughput to support margins. Throughput in the former Soviet Union is projected to fall by 200,000 b/d, partly reflecting planned maintenance at Russian refineries in September and a power-related outage at Belarus' 240,000 b/d Mozyr refinery. The agency expects Chinese throughput to drop by 450,000 b/d in 2024, as lacklustre margins prompt independent refiners in Shandong to rein in activity. Chinese throughput declined by 960,000 b/d on the year in July alone, the IEA said. But an uptick in run rates may emerge ahead of the Golden Week holidays at the start of October and a seasonal peak in construction activity at the end of the third quarter, it added. Non-OECD runs are forecast to increase by 640,000 b/d this year, underpinned by new refineries in the Middle East ramping up throughput. The IEA now expects Middle East crude runs to rise by 800,000 b/d this year compared with 2023, which is 200,000 b/d more than its previous projection last month. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Czech Litvinov refinery bitumen loadings resume
Czech Litvinov refinery bitumen loadings resume
London, 12 September (Argus) — Bitumen truck loadings have resumed at the 108,000 b/d Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic after the discovery of an unexploded World War 2 bomb caused an unplanned shutdown last month, market sources said. The refinery was forced to shut on 21 August to enable the bomb to be removed. It restarted over the 31 August-1 September weekend , but bitumen truck supply only resumed this week, market participants said. The refinery's operator, Orlen Unipetrol, has been offering spot truck volumes at around €450/t ex-works, with discounts of around €20/t for sales to key buyers in domestic and inland export markets. Argus assessed Czech truck bitumen prices at €495-505/t ex-works for the week ending 6 September, with those values largely notional in the absence of bitumen supplies from Litvinov. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tanker freight rates expected to rise from 4Q: Appec
Tanker freight rates expected to rise from 4Q: Appec
Singapore, 12 September (Argus) — Tanker freight rates are expected to pick up in October-December and into next year's first quarter on recovering demand for dirty tankers, delegates said at the S&P Global Commodity Insights Appec conference in Singapore. Clean tanker freight rates for Long Range (LR) 2 and LR1 vessels fell in the third quarter because of competition from dirty tankers, Rohit Radhakrishnan, general manager, tanker and gas, Pacific Carriers, said at the conference on 11 September. Rates were dampened on higher competition from increased vessel supply, largely because several dirty tankers such as very large crude carriers (VLCCs) switched to ship clean products. A fully laden VLCC equates to slightly more than three LR2 cargoes, which are the vessels normally used to ship diesel and gasoil from the Middle East to Europe. This was in line with a trend since July when several dirty tankers such as VLCCs were booked to carry clean petroleum products from the Mideast Gulf and Asia to Europe, given weak seasonal demand for VLCCs in the northern hemisphere and higher time-charter equivalent (TCE) rates for clean LR vessels. But the dirty tanker freight market has risen since late last week. With the recent increase in demand for dirty tankers, its $/t discount with clean tankers has decreased, said Peter Kolding, vice president of commercial and pool management at Hafnia, a tanker company. As the winter season is also coming up, demand should increase, lending a general recovery in the fourth-quarter rates, Kolding added. VLCC freight rates have steadily moved higher from about 11 months-low because of active chartering activity late last week, with several freight participants also noting that they have already touched a bottom and should continue rebounding. The Argus -assessed rate for a VLCC carrying a dirty cargo from the Mideast Gulf to southeast Asia rose to $7.52/t on 11 September, from the 11 months-low of $6.49/t on 4 September. Tanker freight rates in 2025 will still be strong compared with past years, Radhakrishnan said, but might be slightly weaker than in 2024. With freight rates in the first quarter being seasonally strong, the market should be off to a good start, Kolding added, but noted that "we still got to keep an eye on geopolitical effects." The Red Sea conflict has played a huge part in freight rates this year because of increased tonne-mile demand and costs as vessels reroute through the Cape of Good Hope, said Kolding, adding that it would take a while for the conflict to be resolved. Rates could also find further support if crude prices continue to fall, attracting charterers to book tankers such as VLCCs as offshore storage for oil, the conference moderator said. By Sean Zhuang Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Production cuts lift Asian seaborne bitumen values
Production cuts lift Asian seaborne bitumen values
Singapore, 12 September (Argus) — Tighter export supplies from production cuts and firmer import demand from southeast Asia has lifted seaborne Asian bitumen prices to their highest level since last year's final quarter. Argus assessed the weekly fob Singapore ABX 1 at $452.50/t on 6 September, the highest since early December 2023 and up by $7/t from the previous week. Argus assessed the weekly fob South Korea ABX 2 at $446/t on 6 September, the highest since the end of October 2023 and up by $3.50/t from a week earlier. Argus assessed weekly fob Thailand and fob Taiwan prices at $450/t on 6 September, up by $7.50/t from the previous week. This was their highest since mid-November and early December respectively. Export supplies have been curbed from Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan since this year's second quarter because of strong high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices and weaker export margins . The daily fob Singapore ABX 1 was trading at a discount of about $75-80/t to 3.5pc 380cst HSFO fob Singapore values in March. The discount widened to $107.75/t to HSFO on 5 July, the widest this year. Enquiries were weak especially from monsoon-hit Vietnam , with higher availability of relatively cheaper Middle East-origin cargoes also depressing domestic values and reducing buying capacity. Import demand from south China continues to be weak from higher inventories and limited consumption. This is despite its existing production cuts. Only Indonesia was seeking some volumes to restock. Some Indonesian importers have been seeking October-December laycan cargoes in advance before Singapore's export supplies dry up, ahead of the year-end peak demand season. At least two importers have issued import tenders to secure October cargoes. But drier weather and the return of some national highway and maintenance projects in central and north Vietnam, along with unusually higher domestic demand in Thailand , increased enquiries for Singapore and Taiwan cargoes this quarter that supported prices. Importers from southeast Asia are also seeking other Asia-origin cargoes. This strengthened enquiries for South Korea-origin cargoes , for which southeast Asia is not a major market. Prolonged weak demand from traditional importer east China because of competitive domestic offers made South Korean cargoes available for southeast Asian buyers but demand continued to outpace supplies. Limited output At least two of three refineries in Singapore were under partial turnaround this quarter. The Singapore Refining Company's 290,000 b/d refinery is expected to return towards the end of September, while Shell's 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery is estimated to resume around mid-October. A Yeosu-based refiner in South Korea issued a tender to sell about 5-6 cargoes each month for loading across the fourth quarter from its 800,000 b/d refinery. But an Onsan-based 669,000 b/d refiner did not issue an export tender for September-laycan cargoes for unspecified reasons. Market participants are unsure if an export tender for October cargoes will be issued. Export supplies from Taiwan were also limited with refiners mostly catering to their term commitments. Thailand's 275,000 b/d Sriracha refinery and 215,000 b/d Rayong refinery limited production, while the 175,000 b/d Map Ta Phut refinery has opted to produce more fuel oil. A refinery in Malaysia had halted bitumen sales since mid-June because of limited production and is likely to return next month. This increased demand for Singapore-origin tank truck cargoes and some Singapore refiners allocated more volumes for tank truck sales, further limiting export supplies. Export supplies in Asia are expected to be tight in the short term despite seaborne prices currently trading at a premium to HSFO values, market participants close to refiners told Argus , indicating that bitumen production might not increase soon. Bitumen has been at a premium to HSFO values since the end of August. Argus assessed the daily fob Singapore ABX 1 at $460/t on 11 September, at a $48.25/t premium to 3.5pc 380cst HSFO fob Singapore that was assessed at $411.75/t. By Sathya Narayanan, Claire Ng and Chloe Choo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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