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US election could shift climate action to states

  • : Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen
  • 24/09/30

Significant policy shifts on market-based actions to address climate change could come from US states if former president Donald Trump is re-elected.

A Trump administration is expected to be much less friendly to environmental markets, with the Republican nominee pledging on the campaign trail to repeal major tax incentives and other policies that support emissions-reduction efforts. That could open the door to more action by Democratic-led states, according to speakers Monday at the Environmental Markets Association (EMA) annual meeting in Scottsdale, Arizona.

"When Republicans win the White House, you tend to see the blue and purple states lean more aggressively into getting in the driver's seat on climate action," said Eric Scheriff, Capstone senior managing director of sustainability practice.

Scheriff highlighted eight states that increased their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets during the first Trump administration and said there is further potential for programs to expand and set more ambitious mandates in response to a second Trump presidency. A Republican-led White House would likely catalyze further development of New York's proposed cap-and-trade program, while spurring a more aggressive Low Carbon Fuel Standard program in California.

Expectations are that vice president Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, would continue President Joe Biden's climate policies. But a Harris administration has the potential to create a more durable voluntary carbon market, according to Janet Peace, head of policy for Anew Climate.

"You could have the enshrinement on a government principle of what is high quality carbon," Peace said.

Action by the US Congress could give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission the authority needed to create a more transparent voluntary carbon market, Peace said.

But the voluntary market could have the opportunity to expand under either administration, she said.

Meanwhile, the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) remains a point of contention under a Trump administration.

Trump has pledged to repeal many of the energy tax credits in the IRA, while Harris has promised to create "America forward tax credits" that focus on growth for certain industries.

While money from the IRA has flowed to Republican states, this is unlikely to stem appetites to go after the provisions in a Trump administration, according to Kevin Poloncarz, partner and co-chair of the environmental and energy practice group at the law firm Covington & Burling.

"There's lots of ways it could be nibbled around the edges," Poloncarz said.

This could come in the form of how the US Treasury and Internal Revenue Service go about implementing provisions of the IRA since the final rules for some have not yet been issued, such as what qualifies for the 45V clean hydrogen tax credit.

A rush by the Biden administration to finalize the rules before the election would not necessarily remove any uncertainty, Poloncarz said. Congress under a Trump administration could pass a Congressional Review Act resolution, scuttling the rules and effectively prohibiting the agencies from adopting similar rules without the express permission of lawmakers.


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25/03/10

Brazil ignores fossil fuel phase-out in Cop 30 letter

Brazil ignores fossil fuel phase-out in Cop 30 letter

Sao Paulo, 10 March (Argus) — Climate activists praised Brazil's stance of making UN Cop 30 a "turning point" for real climate change commitments but criticized the presidency's letter for turning a blind eye to fossil fuels' leading role in global warming. The summit's president Andre Correa do Lago unveiled on Monday a letter addressing the event's goals and outlooks, which includes boosting climate financing to $1.3 trillion/yr from the target stipulated at Cop 29 of $300bn/yr. "Lago calls on foreign countries — especially the US — to leave individuality and irresponsibility behind in exchange for cooperation and our planet's future," scientist Karin Bruning — a graduate of the University of Heidelberg and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology — said. "However, the letter has no use if Brazil does not pull its own weight." Bruning recalled Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's [public feud](http://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2657369 with the country's environmentalist watchdog Ibama regarding the exploration in Brazil's equatorial margin region. "A country with so much renewable energy available cannot look at past solutions such as exploring and pushing for fossil fuels," Bruning said. She also highlighted the importance of respecting technical and scientific decisions on matters such as oil exploration. Environmental concerns have always been at the center of the equatorial margin debate, as it stands near a freshwater barrier reef. State-controlled Petrobras has long been trying to explore the area's Foz do Amazonas basin — which holds an estimated 10bn bl of crude, according to energy research bureau Epe — but has struggled to receive the environment licenses to do so. Ibama last denied the company a request to drill in the area in May 2023. Brazilian climate think tank Observatorio do Clima called the letter "inspiring," but added that it "excludes the elephant in the room." It recognized the letter as a "relief for giving the Paris Agreement negotiations to professionals who understand the gravity of the moment" but bashed it for keeping fossil fuels' gradual stoppage out of Cop 30's priorities list. Still, Correa do Lago's letter was celebrated for recognizing "the scale of the challenge and the urgency of response," according to climate change think-tank E3G's associate director Kaysie Brown. Holding on to past pledges Previous Cop agreements and global stocktakes (GST) — a five-yearly checkpoint agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Agreement — were ignored and pushed back against in Baku's final text. Correa do Lago's letter focused on rolling back decisions regarding developing countries and increasing financing for them, which has long been one of the Brazilian government's priorities. This includes the climate financing target of $1.3 trillion. "We do have pending issues to solve at Cop 30, notably the UAE dialogue on implementing the GST outcomes and the just transition work programme," Correa do Lago said in his letter. "The GST is an invaluable legacy that unites us. We must all continue to subscribe to it as the ultimate benchmark for climate implementation." By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ontario adds fee for electricity exports to US: Update


25/03/10
25/03/10

Ontario adds fee for electricity exports to US: Update

Updates with comments from US utilities Calgary, 10 March (Argus) — Ontario is imposing a 25pc tariff on electricity exports to the US starting today, carrying through on its threatened retaliation for a trade war started by US president Donald Trump. "We will apply maximum pressure to maximize our leverage, that's why today we're moving forward with a 25pc surcharge on electricity exports for the 1.5mn American homes and business that Ontario powers," Ontario premier Doug Ford said today in Toronto. Ontario was the largest exporter of electricity to the US in 2023, sending 15.2 TWh to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. The neighbouring province of Quebec, which exported 13.4 TWh the same year to New York and New England, has said it is also considering its options amid the trade war. Ford said he feels "terrible" because average consumers will pay when it is really Trump who is responsible. The surcharge will cost the US up to $400,000/d, amounting to an increase of $100 for consumers each month, according to Ford. "I will not hesitate to increase this charge," said Ford. "If necessary, if the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely." Trump on 4 March imposed a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. But executive orders that he signed on 6 March exempted North American trade covered by the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement from new tariffs after 12:01am eastern time on 7 March. Trump has said he is delaying the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until 2 April, but his executive orders make no mention of that restart date. Minnesota Power, a subsidiary of Allete, imports "a small portion" of its electricity from Ontario but expects the impact to be "negligible", the utility said. Minnesota Power receives 11pc of its of its energy supply from Manitoba Hydro, but Manitoba has not followed Ontario's lead and imposed a surcharge. Michigan's largest utility, Consumers Energy — which serves 6.8mn of the state's 10mn residents — does not purchase power from Ontario. Xcel Energy, which serves customers in Minnesota and Michigan, also said it did not buy power from Ontario. By Brett Holmes and Anna Harmon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France's energy plan to allow new fossil-fired plants


25/03/10
25/03/10

France's energy plan to allow new fossil-fired plants

London, 10 March (Argus) — A revised version of France's 10-year energy plan, released for final public consultation, cuts a pledge to no longer build any more fossil fuel-fired power plants, while the government is pushing a bill that allows coal-fired plants to be converted to gas firing rather than shut down. The PPE3 plan, which sets out a roadmap for how France will change its energy system out to 2035 in order to comply with the country's goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is now in the last stage of public consultation, several years after it was due to be finalised. The latest version maintains a pledge to phase out coal, with France's last two remaining coal-fired power plants set to close by 2027. But the pledge included in the previous version to "not build new electricity generation sites based on fossil energy" has been removed. And a pledge to "launch studies or pilot projects" to convert existing or build greenfield thermal plants using 100pc decarbonised energy has been watered down. It now promises simply to "help" operators of such plants launch studies or projects, and on fuels that are "less emitting" rather than completely decarbonised. A bill is currently passing through the French parliament that allows the country's two remaining coal-fired plants to be converted to gas operation. Gazelenergie, operator of one of the plants, hailed the bill when it was announced last month. It has the backing of the government, as well as of parliamentarians from across the political spectrum in the Moselle region, where one of the coal-fired plants is located. The new version of the plan also cuts ambitions for solar power as revealed last month , in light of views that the previous aim was too high given France's extensive nuclear fleet. The government now aims for 65-90GW by 2035, down from 75-100GW in the previous plan. It hopes to achieve this aim by launching two tenders per year of 1GW each for ground-mounted solar and three tenders of 300MW each for roof-mounted solar. The roof-mounted tenders "may be adjusted" according to changes made to subsidies, the government said. And one technologically neutral 500MW tender per year will be held. In the past, these tenders typically have been dominated by solar projects. The government has not explicitly decided on a separate tender for agrivoltaic projects, as the solar sector had called for, but it may decide to hold them, deducting any capacity called for from other solar buckets. The trajectory for solar is set at 5GW of projects assigned per year, for 4GW constructed, assuming 20pc of projects do not advance. This then could be modified upwards from 2028-29, to a maximum of 7 GW/yr, if increases in demand and flexibility justify it. On onshore wind, two tenders of 900MW each will be held every year in order to hold the trajectory of construction at roughly 1.5 GW/yr. France's electricity is already substantially decarbonised, thanks to its large nuclear fleet and renewables installations. Fossil fuel-fired plants will only be needed to cover demand spikes and ensure energy security, the government said in the consultation. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ontario adds 25pc tariff on electricity exports to US


25/03/10
25/03/10

Ontario adds 25pc tariff on electricity exports to US

Calgary, 10 March (Argus) — Ontario is imposing a 25pc tariff on electricity exports to the US starting today, carrying through on its threatened retaliation to a trade war started by US president Donald Trump. "We will apply maximum pressure to maximize our leverage, that's why today we're moving forward with a 25pc surcharge on electricity exports for the 1.5mn American homes and business that Ontario powers," Ontario premier Doug Ford said Monday in Toronto. Ontario was the largest exporter of electricity to the US in 2023, sending 15.2 TWh to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. The neighbouring province of Quebec, which exported 13.4 TWh the same year to New York and New England, has said it is also considering its options amid the trade war. Ford added he feels "terrible" because average consumers will pay when it is really Trump who is responsible. The surcharge will cost the US up to $400,000 each day, amounting to an increase of $100 for consumers each month, according to Ford. "I will not hesitate to increase this charge," said Ford. "If necessary, if the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely." Trump on 4 March imposed a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. But executive orders that he signed on 6 March would exempt North American trade covered by the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement from new tariffs after 12:01am eastern time on 7 March. Trump has said he is delaying the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until 2 April, but his executive orders make no mention of that deadline. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

I-REC, I-Track demand soars in Feb alongside supply


25/03/10
25/03/10

I-REC, I-Track demand soars in Feb alongside supply

London, 10 March (Argus) — Both redemptions and issuances of international renewable energy certificates (I-RECs) and non-renewable I-Track certificates were nearly 40pc higher year on year in February, with Brazil driving most of the increase. Global I-REC and non-renewable I-Track redemptions totalled 45.1TWh last month, up from 32.8TWh in February 2024, according to data from global registry Evident. Demand last month was at its highest since March last year, when it reached 47TWh. The 12-month rolling average for redemptions was 1TWh higher on the month at 20.6TWh in February. Total demand in January-February stood at 71TWh, nearly a third of the 233TWh cancelled in the whole of last year. Issuances hit 46.2TWh in February, which was up by 38pc year on year and also the highest since 54TWh in March 2024. The 12-month rolling average for issuances rose to 26TWh last month from 25TWh in January. Latin America The number of cancelled I-RECs more than doubled on the year in Latin America to 29.1TWh in February, with issuances having risen by 43pc year on year to 27.4TWh. Both demand and supply in Brazil climbed to about 21TWh last month, compared with less than 10TWh a year earlier. Total demand in January-February reached 23.4TWh, making Brazil the largest I-REC market so far in 2025 ahead of China, which accounted for the largest share last year. Brazil is seeking to address slowing growth in its onshore wind sector, with new legislation expected to speed up the development of the country's first offshore wind projects. The government also has planned several auctions to boost the hydroelectric sector . Argus assessments for current-year Brazilian wind and hydropower I-RECs averaged $0.20/MWh and $0.18/MWh, respectively, in February, each steady on the month. Demand in Chile was at 1.6TWh last month, more than five times higher than a year earlier. Redemptions in Mexico and Colombia increased by about 55pc and 85pc on the year to 2.1TWh and 4TWh, respectively, in February. Mexican prices continued to be volatile, with 2025 wind and solar I-RECs valued at $3.25/MWh at the end of last month, with offers in a wide range of $3.50-4.50/MWh and small volumes having changed hands at $4.15/MWh. South Asia I-REC cancellations in south Asian countries last month nearly tripled on the year to 1.83TWh. India led most of this increase, with demand in the country having risen to 1.79TWh in February compared with just 565GWh a year earlier. Issuances rose more slowly, to 890GWh from 678GWh, with solar power accounting for more than half of the certificates issued last month and taking over from wind, which had accounted for the largest share in February last year. Argus assessments for wind, solar and hydro I-RECs last month averaged $0.79/MWh and $0.86/MWh for the 2024 and 2025 vintages, respectively, having inched down by $0.01-0.03/MWh from January. Asia-Pacific Overall I-REC redemptions slipped by 22pc on the year in Asia-Pacific to 10.2TWh in February, although they edged up from 9.7TWh in January. The decline was driven largely by Malaysia, where demand fell to 2.1TWh last month from 3.5TWh in February 2024. Redemptions also decreased in Singapore, by 80pc year on year to 136GWh last month. Singapore and Malaysia in January agreed to study the formation of a credible framework that recognises renewable energy certificates (RECs) associated with cross-border electricity trade. But policy and regulatory gaps are hampering cross-border REC transactions in the region, according to the Asean Centre for Energy. Argus assessed current-year Malaysian solar I-RECs at an average of $5.55/MWh in February, $0.24/MWh lower on the month. Average assessments for 2025 Singaporean solar I-RECs were down by $3.10/MWh on the month to $75/MWh in February. Demand in China, where the use of I-RECs will officially cease after 31 March, was at about 6TWh in February, broadly steady on the month and on the year. By Giulio Bajona Global I-REC redemptions, Feb 2025 TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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