Stellantis cuts 2024 US forecast

: Metals, Petrochemicals
24/10/02

Global automaker Stellantis has cut its 2024 guidance for its US operations.

The company plans to accelerate its inventory drawdown strategy, aiming to reduce dealer inventory to 330,000 units by the end of 2024, from a previous goal of the first quarter of 2025.

So far in the second half of 2024, Stellantis has reduced its US inventories by 40,000 vehicles, Ed Ditmire, head of investor relations, said on 30 September.

To achieve this, Stellantis is reducing North American shipments by more than 200,000 vehicles in the second half of 2024, up from a previous goal of a 100,000-vehicle cut.

Stellanties released the new guidance after it made changes to its production schedules, Ditmire said.

Ditmire added that Chinese competition in Europe is challenging Stellantis' operations, and he estimated that in 2024 over 10pc of electric vehicle (EV) volumes and over 20pc of total vehicle sales in Europe will be from Chinese car companies.

By Rye Druzchetta

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25/01/02

Pure green steel costs almost double NW EU HRC price

London, 2 January (Argus) — Zero emission hydrogen-fed electric arc furnace-produced crude steel would currently cost almost double the price of northwest EU hot-rolled coil (HRC), according to data launched by Argus today. The opex cost of green hydrogen-fed direct reduced iron/electric arc furnace (EAF) route steel was €1,074/t at the end of December, compared to a northwest EU HRC price of €558.25/t ex-works. That is also €544/t more than the cost of blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BOF)- produced crude steel, showing genuinely green steel would require a much higher finished product price than current blast furnace-based output, assuming a similar cost structure to today. Most current green offerings from EU mills are still produced via the blast furnace, with emissions reductions achieved through mass balancing, offsetting, or by reductions achieved elsewhere in the supply chain. Buy-side desire to pay premiums for this material has been limited, particularly given the downturn in the European market in the second half of 2024. This has contributed to the market for premiums remaining immature, illiquid and opaque, and complicated by the lack of a commonly agreed definition for green steel. Automakers have shown the most interest in greener steel, given their need to reduce emissions from the wider supply chain, as well as vehicle tailpipe emissions. Some automotive sub-suppliers suggest certain mills have been willing to reduce their green premiums to move tonnes — one reported paying a €70/t premium for EAF-based cold-rolled coil for a 2025 contract, but this was not confirmed. Europe's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, said over the second half of last year it would pause its direct reduced iron (DRI) investment decisions ahead of the European Commission's Steel and Metals Action Plan, and as it called for an effective carbon border adjustment mechanism and more robust trade defence measures. Market participants largely agree that natural-gas fed EAF-based production is the greenest form of output currently available to EU mills, substituted with imports of greener metallics and semi-finished steels from regions with plentiful and competitively priced energy. Argus ' new costs show BOF steel is currently just over €31/t more expensive than scrap-based EAF production fed with renewable energy. Europe's comparatively high cost of energy is one key issue for transitioning to DRI/EAF fed production. Last month, consultancy Mckinsey said mills could rely on "green iron" hubs going forward, with iron-making decoupled from production of crude steel, enabling DRI production to be located in regions with low-cost gas and ore, and raw steel production in regions with access to renewable energy. The range of production costs, launched today, include five crude steel making pathways and are calculated using consumption and emissions data provided by [SteelStat](https://steelstat.com), in combination with Argus price data, including hydrogen costs. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: North American BZ, SM output to dip in 2025

25/01/02

Viewpoint: North American BZ, SM output to dip in 2025

Houston, 2 January (Argus) — North American benzene (BZ) and derivative styrene monomer (SM) production and operating rates may decline in 2025 as production costs climb. SM and derivative output will likely see a drop due to the permanent closure of a SM plant in Sarnia and an acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plant in Ohio. In 2024, SM operating rates averaged about 71-72pc of capacity, up by 1-2 percentage points from the year prior, according to Argus data. In 2025, operating rates are expected to pull back closer to 70pc due to lackluster underlying demand, offsetting the impact of the two plant closures. Many SM producers on the US Gulf coast are entering 2025 at reduced rates due to high variable production cash costs against the SM spot price. The BZ contract price and higher ethylene prices recently pushed up production costs for SM producers. A heavy upstream ethylene cracker turnaround season in early 2025 will keep derivative SM production costs elevated in Louisiana, stifling motivation for some downstream SM operators to run at normal rates. Gulf coast BZ prices typically fall when SM demand is weak. But imports from Asia are projected to decline, leading to tighter supply in North America that could keep BZ prices elevated. BZ imports from Asia are expected to decline in 2025 because of fewer arbitrage opportunities, as Asia and US BZ prices are expected to remain near parity in the first half of the year. The import arbitrage from South Korea to the Gulf coast was closed for much of the fourth quarter of 2024. Prices in Asia have garnered support because of demand from China for BZ and derivatives, as well as from aromatics production costs in the region that have increased alongside higher naphtha prices. In January-October 2024, over 60pc of US BZ imports originated from northeast Asia, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Losing any portion of those imports typically tightens the US market and drives up domestic demand for BZ. But tighter BZ supply due to lower imports may be mitigated by SM producers, if they continue to run at reduced rates in 2025. The US Gulf coast is around 100,000 metric tonnes (t) net short monthly on BZ, but market sources say the soft SM demand outlook for 2025 will cut US BZ import needs almost in half. Despite fewer BZ imports to North America, reduced SM consumption could hamper run rates for BZ production from selective toluene disproportionation (STDP) unit operators. The biggest obstacle for STDP operators in 2025 will like be paraxylene (PX) demand. Since STDP units produce BZ alongside PX, there needs to be domestic demand for PX. But demand has been weak due to PX imports and derivative polyethylene terephthalate (PET). STDP operations increased at the end 2025 after running at at minimum rates or being idled since 2022. This came as BZ prices consistently eclipsed feedstock toluene prices. The BZ to feedstock nitration-grade toluene spread averaged 30.5¢/USG in 2024 and the BZ to feedstock commercial-grade toluene (CGT) spread averaged 49.25¢/USG, according to Argus data. This means that for much of the year STDP operators could justify running units at higher rates to produce more BZ and PX. But another challenge to consider on STDP run rates in 2025 is the value of toluene for gasoline blending compared to its value for chemical production. In 2022 and 2023, the toluene value into octanes was higher than going into an STDP for BZ and PX production. Feedstock toluene imports are poised to fall in 2025, a factor that would narrow STDP margins and further hamper on-purpose benzene production in the US in 2025. By Jake Caldwell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Gallium nitride to expand into auto industry

25/01/02

Viewpoint: Gallium nitride to expand into auto industry

London, 2 January (Argus) — Gallium nitride (GaN) is already used in power devices for consumer electronics, but manufacturers are now developing the technology for use in the automotive sector, with the compound set to make its way into vehicles in the coming year. GaN semiconductors are currently used in consumer and industrial applications, including alternating current adapters and server power supply units. But use of GaN semiconductors in automotive applications is at an early stage — unlike silicon carbide (SiC) chips, which are increasingly being incorporated into electric vehicle (EV) power electronics. GaN has a similar crystalline structure to silicon but can deliver greater efficiency, faster switching speeds and higher thermal conductivity. Lower resistance, smaller form factors and the ability to operate at higher voltages mean GaN semiconductors consume less power than silicon semiconductors. Integrating GaN into silicon substrates rather than sapphire is opening up new uses for GaN in vehicle power devices and light detection and ranging (LiDAR). GaN is suitable for low and high-voltage applications for EVs, including on-board chargers (OBCs), power inverters and traction motors. US-based semiconductor firms Navitas Semiconductor and Texas Instruments (TI), and Chinese-owned Nexperia have been developing GaN chips for automotive for several years and are now moving quickly into higher voltages. Several manufacturers have now started producing devices and expect to gain traction over the next year. Navitas has been producing GaN devices since 2018 and expects to begin making the product for the automotive industry in 2025. Japan's ROHM Semiconductor in December partnered with the world's largest semiconductor company, Taiwan-based TSMC, to develop and produce GaN power devices for EVs. The companies will integrate ROHM's device development technology with TSMC's GaN-on-Si process technology and provide control integrated circuits to maximise performance. Israeli firm VisIC Technologies is developing GaN products for automotive and industrial uses. It announced plans in December to partner with Austrian automotive technology developer AVL to advance inverter technology for EVs. The firms aim to produce devices that offer higher performance and lower costs at both the device and system level, compared with SiC devices. VisIC's GaN-on-silicon power devices consume less energy during production and can be manufactured in 200mm and 300mm silicon foundries to scale up output. VisIC plans to work with AVL to expand the platform to include 800V power modules — the next generation of EV charging technology. China's Innoscience Technology is developing GaN-on-Si power products and recently launched two 100V automotive-grade devices optimised for LiDAR for advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving applications, as well as DC-DC converters and automotive audio applications. The company has started mass production and is fulfilling batch orders to meet demand. Several manufacturers and foundries are now building out capacity to accommodate commercial-scale output of GaN devices. US-based GlobalFoundries said in early December it has received $9.5mn in federal funding to continue adding new tools, equipment and prototyping capabilities at its Vermont facility, as it moves closer to full-scale manufacturing of its 200mm GaN-on-Si chips. And TI started producing GaN-based power semiconductors at its factory in Aizu, Japan, in October. As the site ramps up, TI's internal capacity will quadruple between its US and Japanese factories. The company has also piloted manufacturing 300mm wafers to increase volumes. Limitations in manufacturing have so far hampered the widespread adoption of GaN in EVs. Cost, supply-chain issues and concerns around thermal management and voltage spikes remain hurdles that manufacturers must overcome. The technology has yet to be proven for automotive applications, which have stringent standards for quality and safety. For this reason, manufacturers are starting with GaN in OBCs and converters to establish confidence. Companies such as Germany's Infineon and Swiss chipmaker STMicroelectronics anticipate there will be room for both SiC and GaN in the automotive sector, depending on the power, efficiency and cost requirements of the application. The availability of gallium compared with silicon may also become a factor as demand increases, given export restrictions out of primary supplier China. By Nicole Willing Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Strong fundamentals to support Nb columbite

25/01/02

Viewpoint: Strong fundamentals to support Nb columbite

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Viewpoint: US maintenance to limit EO, derivatives

24/12/31

Viewpoint: US maintenance to limit EO, derivatives

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — Multiple ethylene oxide (EO) and derivative turnarounds may limit US supply in the first half of 2025. At least six producers of EO and derivatives are expected to be down for maintenance in February-June. Some are just two weeks while others are 30-45 days. Most US EO producers are integrated to produce derivatives such as monoethylene glycol (MEG), diethylene glycol (DEG) and triethylene glycol (TEG). This dynamic has market participants anticipating the derivatives will feel the supply squeeze in the first half of the year. The producers with planned maintenance have the capacity to produce over 3mn metric tonnes (t) of ethylene glycol during the five months of turnarounds, according to Argus data. These supply limitations are expected to tighten the spot market more than the contracted volumes, as the US is a typically a net exporter of MEG, DEG and TEG. Any delays in restarts or unplanned outages could quickly change the US ethylene glycol supply picture. Additionally, multiple steam-cracker maintenance projects are planned for the first quarter of 2025, which will limit supply of feedstock ethylene and likely raise feedstock costs in the short term. Some market participants see the US entering the heavy turnaround season at minimum inventories. The US is still rebuilding stocks of EO derivatives such as MEG, DEG and TEG after constraints in September and October tightened supply. Some planned and several unplanned outages occurred in September that were not resolved until mid-October. During this time, spot supply was harder to find but seasonal demand was starting to slow, according to market participants. Despite these supply constraints, exports of MEG rose by 32pc to 312,800t in September compared to a year earlier. The US exported 317,900t of MEG in October, a 53pc increase on the year. Overlapping turnarounds in the first half of 2025 could slow exports as the US is typically a net exporter of MEG, DEG and TEG. Market participants anticipate first-quarter demand to be similar to the last three months of the year with the addition of some restocking activity. By Catherine Rabe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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