Mexico’s oil products by rail up 11pc Jan-Aug

: Oil products
24/10/03

Mexico transported 11pc more gasoline, diesel and petrochemicals by rail in the first eight months of 2024 than in the same period a year prior.

Mexico's railroads moved 11.8mn metric tonnes (t) of those products year to date August, up from 10.7mn t in the same period a year earlier, according to national railway association (ARTF) data. Year-to-date August growth slowed this year from the 12pc annual growth in the same period in 2023.

ARTF said that oil and related products accounted for 13pc of the total 91mn t of cargo shipped from January-August 2024, but it did not disclose shipment data by specific product. The products share of overall cargo is just above the 12pc of all cargo shipped in the first eight months of 2023.

The Tamaulipas state petrochemical hub transported most of Mexico's oil products by rail from January-August, with about 3.49mn t, or 30pc, of the total volume.

The hub, adjacent to key US export centers, is home to state-owned Pemex's 190,000 b/d Madero refinery.

The state of Veracruz, where Pemex operates its 285,000 b/d Minatitlan refinery, was the second-largest transporter of oil and refined products by rail, at 22pc, or 2.6mn t.

Pemex typically transports around 4pc of its refined products — imported or domestically produced — by rail. Private-sector data are not available.

Diesel demand for cargo transport reached 485mn l (12,600 b/d) from January-August, a 3.2pc hike from the same period last year. Meanwhile, demand for diesel used for passenger rail transport more than doubled to 4.1mn l.

Passenger rail boom?

Diesel consumption for passenger rail is set to rise in coming years with President Claudia Sheinbaum promising to add more than 3,000km (1,865 miles) of passenger rail during her six-year term.

This is in addition to the 1,460km Maya railroad, which is expanding operations across the Yucatan peninsula. Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, has pledged to complete expansion of this line, introduce cargo traffic and complete projects like the Inter-oceanic railway and its extension to the Guatemala border.

Other projects will connect passenger rail to key cities in central Mexico, among them the Mexico-Queretaro route.

By James Young

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24/10/03

US light vehicle sales surged in September

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases. Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023. The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy. Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend. Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

24/10/02

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

Updates throughout with more detail on revisions. Houston, 2 October (Argus) — California regulators advanced stricter limits on crop-based biofuels as revisions to a key North American low-carbon incentive program drew closer to a vote. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) late yesterday added sunflower oil — a feedstock with no current approved users or previous indicated use in the program — to restrictions first proposed in August on canola and soybean oil feedstocks for biomass-based diesel. The new language maintained a proposal to make the program's annual targets 9pc tougher in 2025 and to achieve by 2030 a 30pc reduction from 2010 transportation fuel carbon intensity levels. Board decisions that could come as early as 8 November may reconfigure the flow of low-carbon fuels across North America. The state credits anchor a bouquet of incentives that have driven the rapid buildout of renewable diesel capacity and dairy biogas capture systems far beyond California's borders, and inspired similar, but separate, programs along the US west coast and in Canada. CARB staff's latest proposals, published a little before midnight ET on 1 October, offer comparatively minor adjustments to the shock August revisions that spurred a nearly $20 after-hours rally in LCFS prompt prices. Prompt credits early in Wednesday's session traded higher by $3 than they closed the previous trading day before slipping back by midday. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new US renewable diesel production capacity, swamping west coast fuel markets and inundating the state's LCFS program with compliance credits. CARB reported more than 26mn metric tonnes of credits on hand by April this year — more than enough to satisfy all new deficits generated in 2023. Staff have sought through this year's rulemaking to restore incentives to more deeply decarbonize state transportation than thought possible during revisions last made in 2019. Participants have generally supported tougher targets, with some fuel suppliers warning about potential price increases and credit generators urging CARB to take a still more aggressive approach. But proposals to limit credit generation to only 20pc of the volume of fuel a supplier made from canola, soybean and now sunflower has found little public support. Environmental opponents have argued that the CARB proposals fall short of what is necessary to add protections against cropland expansion and fuel competition with food supply. Agribusiness and some fuel producers have warned the concept, proposed in August, ran counter to the premise of a neutral, carbon-focused program and against staff's own view last spring. The proposal exceeded what CARB could do without beginning a new rulemaking, some argued. CARB yesterday proposed a grace period for facilities already using the feedstocks to continue generating credits while seeking alternatives. Facilities certified to use those feedstocks before changes are formally adopted could continue using those sources until 2028, compared to a 2026 cut off proposed in August. No facilities currently supplying California have certified sunflower feedstock, and it was not clear that any were planned. "We're not aware of any proposed pathway or lifecycle analysis for sunflower oil, so that addition is just baffling," said Cory-Ann Wind, Clean Fuels Alliance America director of state regulatory affairs. "Clearly not based in science." The latest revisions include a change to how staff communicate a new, proposed automatic adjustment mechanism (AAM). The mechanism would automatically advance to tougher, future targets when credits exceed deficits by a certain amount. Supporters consider this a more responsive approach to market conditions than the years of rulemaking effort already underway. Opponents argue such a mechanism cedes important authority and responsibility from the board. Staff proposed quarterly, rather than annual, updates on whether conditions would trigger an adjustment, and to use conditions during the most recent four quarters, rather than by calendar year. Obligations and targets would continue to work on a calendar-year basis. CARB staff clarified that verifying electric vehicle charging credits would not require site visits to the thousands of charging stations eligible to participate in the program. Staff also clarified how long dairy or swine biogas harvesting projects could continue to generate credits if built this decade, with a proposed reduction in credit periods only applying to projects certified after the new rules were adopted. California formally began this rulemaking process in early January after publishing draft proposals in late December. Regulators initially proposed adjusting 2025 targets lower by 5pc for 2025 — a one-time decrease called a stepdown — to work toward a 30pc reduction target for 2030. CARB set its sights on 21 March for adoption. But staff pulled that proposal in February as hundreds of comments in response poured in. Updated language released on 12 August proposed a steeper stepdown for 2025 of 9pc while keeping the 30pc target for 2030. Public comment on yesterday's publication will continue to 16 October. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US dockworkers, shippers strike positions entrenched

24/10/02

US dockworkers, shippers strike positions entrenched

New York, 2 October (Argus) — The US dockworker strike gripping east coast and Gulf coast container terminals may not be short-lived given the wide gap between union demands and the offer from an alliance of containership owners, terminal operators and port associations. The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) said its latest proposal for a 50pc wage increase, made on 30 September just before the strike started, "exceeds every other recent union settlement while addressing inflation". But the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) rebuked USMX's characterization of the offer late Tuesday, saying it fails to address the many years it takes for the port workers it represents to realize the higher wages, and factors like workers being on unpaid on-call status. The last-minute timing of the 50pc wage increase offer itself undermines the USMX's position as good faith negotiators, ILA said. "[The] USMX's claim that they are ready to bargain rings hollow when they waited until the eve of the potential strike to present this offer," the ILA said. "The last offer from [the] USMX was back in February 2023." Dockworkers started to picket container terminals in New England, New York, New Jersey, Houston, Texas, New Orleans, Louisiana, and other locations on 1 October . Containership loading and unloading has come to a halt at those terminals, while no trucks where queued at unmanned loading checkpoints. The union has pointed to a perceived unfairness in record profits reported by shipping companies since the Covid-19 pandemic not being shared with ILA members who were "keeping ports open and the economy moving" during that time. The union is also sticking to demands for no new automation technology at US ports that would replace workers, describing this position as "non-negotiable", and the right to 100pc of the "container royalties" funds, a type of welfare paid out by employers to protect US longshoremen from the loss of work brought on by the containerization of cargo. No fed intervention expected US president Joe Biden continued to indicate the federal government would not intervene in the strike, saying collective bargaining between the ILA and the USMX is the best way for workers to achieve their goals. In a statement this week Biden also pointed out that the USMX "represents a group of foreign-owned [ocean] carriers" and insisted that they should "present a fair offer" to the ILA. "It is time for [the] USMX to negotiate a fair contract with the longshoremen that reflects the substantial contribution they've been making to our economic comeback," Biden said. Vice-president Kamala Harris, who is running to replace Biden, doubled-down on that position today. "This strike is about fairness," Harris said in a statement. "Foreign-owned shipping companies have made record profits and executive compensation has grown. The Longshoremen, who play a vital role transporting essential goods across America, deserve a fair share of these record profits." Few commodities curtailed for now Ports and the companies that rely on them have been anticipating the strike for many weeks . Movements of dry bulk cargo, such as coal and grains, are expected to be less affected by the work stoppage, though there could be side effects from the congestion of other products being rerouted to ports not affected by the strike. Movement of crude, refined products and many petrochemicals are not expected to be interrupted, but some polymers that are moved by container, including polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyethylene (PE), and polypropylene (PP), could be disrupted. A segment of US steel imports could also be disrupted by the strike, as about 9pc of those imports come in via containers , according to data from Global Trade Tracker. A prolonged strike could begin to curtail some downstream manufacturing of equipment that requires parts that move by containers. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

California eyes more oilseed limits as LCFS vote nears

24/10/02

California eyes more oilseed limits as LCFS vote nears

Houston, 2 October (Argus) — California regulators proposed late Tuesday expanding limits on the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits certain oilseeds may generate while keeping the program's tougher targets and adoption schedule unchanged. The latest proposed California Air Resources Board (CARB) revisions add sunflower oil — a feedstock with no current approved users or previous indicated use in the program — to restrictions first proposed in August on canola and soybean oil feedstocks for biomass-based diesel. The new language maintained a proposal to make the program's annual targets 9pc tougher in 2025 and to achieve by 2030 a 30pc reduction from 2010 transportation fuel carbon intensity levels. CARB staff's latest proposals, published a little before midnight ET on 1 October, offer comparatively minor adjustments to the shock August revisions that spurred a nearly $20 after-hours rally in LCFS prompt prices. Prompt credits early in Wednesday's session traded higher by $3 than they closed the previous trading day. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new US renewable diesel production capacity, swamping west coast fuel markets and inundating the state's LCFS program with compliance credits. CARB reported more than 26mn metric tonnes of credits on hand by April this year — more than double the number of new program deficits generated in all of 2023. Staff have sought through this year's rulemaking to restore incentives to more deeply decarbonize state transportation than thought possible during revisions last made in 2019. California formally began this rulemaking process in early January after publishing draft proposals in late December. Regulators initially proposed adjusting 2025 targets lower by 5pc for 2025 — a one-time decrease called a stepdown — to work toward a 30pc reduction target for 2030. CARB set its sights on 21 March for adoption. But staff pulled that proposal in February as hundreds of comments in response poured in. Updated language released on 12 August proposed a steeper stepdown for 2025 of 9pc while keeping the 30pc target for 2030. The proposal also added a limit on credit generation from certain crop-based feedstocks, to 20pc of the associated volume delivered to California in certain cases. Respondents generally supported the tougher targets, though fuel suppliers warned of higher prices and some credit generators argued that the state should be even more ambitious. No one praised the proposed limits on credit generation. Environmental advocates said the proposal fell short of the protections they sought against crop conversion and other risks; agribusiness warned that the concept distorted the LCFS and could spark lawsuits. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Asian gasoline market in contango as supply surges

24/10/02

Asian gasoline market in contango as supply surges

Singapore, 2 October (Argus) — The Asian gasoline market structure flipped into contango — where later deliveries are priced at a premium to prompt arrivals — on 1 October because of an influx of cargoes from Saudi Arabia and China. The balance October and November spread was assessed around $0.05-0.10/bl in contango. The last time the market structure was in contango was on 20 June when the spread fell to -$0.05/bl. The gasoline crack spread, or the Argus Singapore 92R gasoline spot assessments against Ice Brent, also reflected the weakness as it fell to $3.05/bl yesterday, the lowest since 20 October 2023 when the crack spread was at $3.01/bl. The reason for the drop could be because of an influx in gasoline cargoes from Saudi Arabia, market participants said. There are a number of gasoline cargoes loading from Jizan, Saudi Arabia in September and are making their way towards Singapore, gasoline traders said. This could be related to the fall in spreads, said a Dubai-based gasoline trader. About 113,000t (955,000 bl) of gasoline could be loading from the Jizan refinery around 9-13 September and is expected to arrive in end-September, according to global trade analytics platform, Kpler. This marks a significant increase from August's volumes of just 12,000t and is the highest since February, Kpler data show. This increase was also reflected in data from oil analytics firm Vortexa, which showed about 85,000t expected to ply the route in September as compared to below 10,000t in August. The Jizan refinery has been exporting gasoline cargoes but mainly to the US. The US accounted for 61pc and 28pc of total export volumes in July and August respectively, according to Kpler. An anticipated surge in Chinese gasoline exports in October also placed a cap on crack spreads. Exports are expected to increase in October because of improved export economics and the rapid development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) which reduces domestic demand and margins for gasoline. Chinese companies plan to export 190,000 b/d of gasoline in October, a rise of 60,000 b/d or 44pc from September, although the volume is 20,000 b/d or 11pc lower from a year earlier. The release of Chinese export quota also eased concerns of a tight market in the fourth quarter. China exported around 26.17mn t of clean products from January to August 2024, GTT customs data show. An Argus survey suggests that China could also be exporting an estimated 5.29mn t from September to October 2024, bringing the total export volume to around 31.46mn t, which means about 9.54mn t quota left will remain for November to December 2024. Based on the January-September clean product export split, there should be more than 1mn t/months of quota for gasoline exports during November to December. In comparison, China exported an average of 750,000t of gasoline each month from January to October 2024. By Aldric Chew Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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