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Seca no Brasil: Níveis dos rios voltam a subir

  • : Agriculture, Fertilizers
  • 24/10/25

Os embarques brasileiros de grãos e fertilizantes seguem em risco devido ao baixo nível dos rios ao longo das principais hidrovias, uma vez que a pior seca na história do Brasil continua dificultando a navegação. Porém, os rios registraram recuperação esta semana, devido ao aumento das chuvas no país, com seus níveis subindo novamente após quase um mês de quedas consecutivas.

Hidrovia do Madeira

A hidrovia Madeira liga Porto Velho, capital do estado de Rondônia, ao porto de Itacoatiara, no estado do Amazonas, e é a segunda maior da região Norte. Em outubro, o porto de Itacoatiara deve receber cerca de 70.634 toneladas (t) de fertilizantes, de acordo com dados de lineup da agência marítima Unimar.

O nível do rio Madeira em Porto Velho aumentou para 91cm em 23 de outubro, ante 46cm em 18 de outubro, de acordo com dados do monitoramento do Serviço Geológico Brasileiro (SGB). Porém, a navegação permanece suspensa no porto, depois da Sociedade de Portos e Hidrovias do estado (SOPH) interromper as operações em 23 de setembro porque o Rio Madeira registrou seu menor nível desde que o monitoramento começou em 1967.

Hidrovia do Solimões-Amazonas

A hidrovia Solimões-Amazonas é a principal do Norte do Brasil, movimentando cerca de 65pc dos volumes da região, segundo o Departamento Nacional de Infraestrutura de Transportes (DNIT). Ela liga a capital do Amazonas, Manaus, à capital do Pará, Belém.

Em 23 de outubro, o nível do Rio Negro estava em 12,56m no ponto de monitoramento do SGB em Manaus, acima dos 12,46m de 18 de outubro. Isso ainda supera o menor nível histórico de 12,7m registrado em 121 anos de monitoramento.

Hidrovia do Tapajós-Teles Pires

É uma hidrovia importante para transportar os volumes produzidos na porção norte do estado de Mato Grosso até o porto de Santarém, no Pará. O porto de Santarém deve receber 130.234t de fertilizantes em outubro, de acordo com dados de lineup da agência marítima Unimar.

A hidrovia Tapajós-Teles Pires também enfrenta uma situação crítica. A Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA) declarou escassez hídrica no Rio Tapajós em 23 de setembro. O clima mais seco do que o normal reduziu os níveis dos rios — especialmente no trecho entre as cidades de Itaituba e Santarém, no Pará — para abaixo dos níveis mínimos históricos.

O nível do Rio Tapajós no ponto de monitoramento de Itaituba, onde está localizado o ponto de transbordo para a hidrovia em Miritituba, estava em 1,03m em 23 de outubro, acima dos 92cm em 18 de outubro, mas ainda abaixo da mínima recorde de 1,32m, de acordo com dados do SBG.

No ponto de monitoramento de Santarém, o Rio Tapajós estava em 27cm, um nível considerado de seca. O nível era de 28cm em 18 de outubro. O mínimo histórico no local é de -55cm abaixo do ponto de referência do porto. Um nível abaixo de zero não significa que o rio está seco, mas indica condições extremamente baixas.

Hidrovia Tocantins-Araguaia

A hidrovia Tocantins-Araguaia abrange os Rios Araguaia e Tocantins. Ela vai da cidade de Barra do Garças, em Mato Grosso, pelo Rio Araguaia, ou da cidade de Peixes, no estado do Tocantins, pelo Rio Tocantins, até o porto de Vila do Conde, no Pará.

Soja, milho, fertilizantes, combustíveis, óleos minerais e produtos derivados são transportados pelas hidrovias do Norte. O porto de Vila do Conde deve receber 245.500t de fertilizantes em outubro, de acordo com a Unimar.

O SGB possui dois pontos de monitoramento no Rio Araguaia. Na cidade de Nova Crixás, em Goiás, o rio estava em 3,11m em 23 de outubro, acima dos 2,85m de 18 de outubro e superando o mínimo histórico anterior de 3,10m. Na cidade de São Félix do Araguaia, em Mato Grosso, o rio estava a 2,71m, acima dos 2,56m de 18 de outubro, se recuperando dos níveis extremos de seca e se afastando da mínima histórica de 2,51m.


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25/05/08

HSFO defies the green tide

HSFO defies the green tide

New York, 8 May (Argus) — High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization. The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use. Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO. In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months. Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend. While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight. By Stefka Wechsler Selected ports marine fuel demand t % Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24 1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 Singapore HSFO 1.0% 33,160.0 4,898,372.0 4,865,212.0 VLSFO/ULSFO -13.0% -1,005,951.0 6,829,667.0 7,835,618.0 MGO/MDO -5.0% -49,012.0 907,874.0 956,886.0 biofuel blends 187.0% 237,552.0 364,418.0 126,866.0 LNG 34.0% 25,935.0 101,856.0 75,921.0 Rotterdam HSFO 1.0% 11,169.0 829,197.0 818,028.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 14.0% 118,670.0 976,249.0 857,579.0 MGO/MDO 3.0% 9,662.0 393,071.0 383,409.0 biofuel blends -60.0% -158,597.0 104,037.0 262,634.0 LNG 7.0% 7.0 104.0 97.0 Panama HSFO 22.0% 65,266.0 362,388.0 297,122.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 25.0% 177,296.0 878,776.0 701,480.0 MGO/MDO 22.0% 27,097.0 150,980.0 123,883.0 — Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sells DAP at $720/t cfr India


25/05/08
25/05/08

Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sells DAP at $720/t cfr India

London, 8 May (Argus) — Saudi Arabian phosphates producer Ma'aden has sold around 55,000t combined of DAP to two Indian importers at $720/t cfr for loading on one vessel in May. Argus understands that the buyers are Indorama and Chambal. The price is broadly in line with the sale of 45,000t of Jordanian DAP to Hindalco at $719.50/t cfr , and nets back to $708-709/t fob Ras al-Khair. It is up by $20/t from Ma'aden's last sales to India earlier this week . By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US, Mexico reach deal to continue cattle imports


25/05/08
25/05/08

US, Mexico reach deal to continue cattle imports

Sydney, 8 May (Argus) — The US has agreed to keep ports open to livestock imports from Mexico after the Latin American nation agreed to waive restrictions on efforts to curb the spread of New World Screwworm (NWS). US agricultural secretary Brooke Collins met with her Mexican counterpart Julio Berdegue in Washington on 7 May and discussed solutions to eradicate NWS. The countries reached agreements that will be beneficial to both parties, Berdegue said on 7 May. This comes after Mexico agreed on 30 April to remove restrictions on specialty aircraft and duties on eradication equipment that are part of the emergency response to curb the spread of NWS. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) threatened to ban live cattle imports from 30 April if Mexico did not eliminate restrictions and duties impeding NWS eradication efforts. NWS can kill infected livestock and was detected in southern Mexico in late 2024, leading to a US ban on Mexican cattle imports in November 2024-January 2025. The ban was lifted in early February after Mexico enforced new cattle screening measures. The threatened port closures could have pressured the already tight US beef supply, with slaughter down by 6pc and beef production down by 2pc on the year as of 2 May, according to USDA Federal Inspection estimates. The US imports feeder cattle to support beef production and is looking to fill beef supply shortages caused by a historically small US herd. Cattle imports from Mexico reached 1.25mn head in the 2024 calendar year, representing about 4pc of total cattle slaughtered, according to USDA data. By Edward Dunlop Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia


25/05/07
25/05/07

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

New York, 7 May (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices. Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit. Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart) . This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price. Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol. To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

High sulphur prices pressure Indonesian buyers


25/05/07
25/05/07

High sulphur prices pressure Indonesian buyers

Singapore, 7 May (Argus) — Steep increases in sulphur prices, against expectations of lower future nickel demand, and falling nickel prices since last year are pressuring metals producers in Indonesia, and some are considering postponing new projects. Sulphur is used as a raw material in the production of nickel intermediates such as nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), through the rotary kiln-electric furnace (RKEF) and high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) processes, respectively. Producing 1t of MHP or nickel matte requires an estimated 10t and 15t of sulphur, respectively. Global sulphur prices began to rise in mid-2024 on firmer demand from Morocco and Indonesia. Morocco's OCP started up two sulphur burners last year that will consume 967,000 t/yr of sulphur at capacity. In Indonesia, newly commissioned HPAL production lines at QMB New Energy Materials and Halmahera Persada Lygend also added an estimated 830,000 t/yr of sulphur demand. Uncertainty over Kazakh and Russian sulphur export availability because of EU sanctions also created uncertainty over available supply in the region. Tighter supply, compounded by competing Chinese and Indonesian demand after the Lunar New Year holidays, spurred a rally in sulphur prices in the first quarter of the year. Fob Middle East sulphur prices more than tripled to $285.5/t fob as of 1 May from $86/t a year earlier, Argus assessments show. Cfr Indonesia granular sulphur prices rose by $185/t to $297/t cfr over the same period. While sulphur prices have risen significantly over the past year, prices for Indonesian-origin nickel intermediates have been largely rangebound at $12,000-14,000/t of nickel contained since January 2024. The comparatively flat nickel prices and the rising raw material prices mean that producers' margins are narrowing further. Gross profit margins for MHP products were close to $10,000/t in 2023 before falling to around $7,000/t in 2024, according to Argus estimates. Current sulphur prices take up around 40pc of the total production cost of nickel matte, the largest portion out of other raw materials such as caustic soda, according to one metals producer. And the increased adoption of non-nickel containing battery chemistries such as lithium-iron-phosphate and higher demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have led the industry to revise its expectation of future nickel demand from the battery section. The International Nickel Study Group has forecast a nickel market surplus of 198,000t for 2025 , rising from 179,000t in 2024. But new ternary precursor cathode active materials projects will support a rise in nickel usage in the medium term, the group said. As higher raw material prices continue to chip away at producer margins, upcoming projects including QMB New Energy Materials' phase 3 in Morowali, and developments by Guangqing and Blue Sparkling Energy in Weda Bay may have to be postponed, market participants said. The three projects are expected on line this year, adding 844,000 t/yr of sulphur demand at capacity. By Chi Hin Ling, Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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