Washington state's gubernatorial race is likely to lead to a change in the attention given to climate change-related policy as governor Jay Inslee (D) exits office.
The race between state attorney general Bob Ferguson (D) and former US representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) remains one-sided as it approaches election day 5 November, in a solidly Democrat-leaning state. Ferguson retains a wide lead over his opponent, with a Cascade PBS/Elway survey earlier this month showing 56pc of likely voters supporting the attorney general and 37pc backing Reichert.
Washington voters have not elected a Republican governor since 1980, backing Democrats in 10 straight elections.
"The numbers are going to be really hard for him because there is so many people that will see whoever's name has a ‘D' next to it and that is how they'll vote," said Todd Donovan, a professor of political science at Western Washington University.
While Democrats have a good chance of retaining the governor's seat, it is unlikely that a Ferguson administration will feature the same focus on climate change as his predecessor.
Inslee, a three-term governor, has been a vocal supporter of climate policies such as the state's Climate Commitment Act dating back to his time in the US House of Representatives. That includes an unsuccessful 2020 presidential bid, which focused heavily on climate and clean energy.
The state climate law authorized the "cap-and-invest" program, which launched in January 2023 and requires large industrial facilities, fuel suppliers and power plants to reduce their emissions by 45pc by 2030 and by 95pc by 2050, from 1990 levels.
But climate policies remain a distant-third campaign issue for both candidates, with each focusing more on abortion, housing and crime.
Climate is an area where Inslee led the conversation, and not the party, says Donovan.
"The Democrats are more in defensive mode defending [Inslee's] legacy and the climate policies in the face of these initiatives," he said of the current election.
This defense has centered around Initiative 2117, which would repeal the cap-and-trade program. Democrats have focused the campaign around stopping the initiative on how it could affect funding, including $3.3bn lawmakers appropriated for climate-related projects earlier this year, rather than the impacts of climate change, Donovan said.
Ferguson supports retaining the program but has called for changes, such as ensuring farmers receive the promised exemption from emissions obligations for fuel, which was a point of contention in the original rollout of the program.
Reichert supports the repeal of the program, citing it as adding to higher consumer fuel prices in the state while putting Washington on an unrealistic timeline for transitioning off fossil fuels, he said during an 18 September debate.
The move is part of Reichert's larger platform, which focuses on limiting state taxes and supporting small businesses.
"We can't put a predesignated date on when we are going to change things and expect things just to work," Reichert said.
Ferguson has tried to position his opponent as a climate change denier in recent campaign appearances and materials, citing a recording of Reichert denying human impact on the climate.
Recent polling in the state shows a softening of support for Initiative 2117, suggesting voters will decide to retain the cap-and-trade program.
If that happens, a Ferguson administration may seek to change the shape of the Washington's carbon market on the other side of the election.
