24/11/20
China to quit coal baseload power by 2050: Think tank
China to quit coal baseload power by 2050: Think tank
Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — Coal power in China will shift from being a
baseload to a backup power source by 2050, according to a government-linked
think tank last week. China is expected to move to a cleaner energy system with
solar and wind power as its core, displacing coal as the main power source,
according to the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 released on 13
November at the Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Energy
Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, a think
tank under China's National Development and Reform Commission, was the key
contributor to this report. Installed renewable power capacity is projected to
account for 95pc of China's potential total capacity of 10,530-11,820GW in 2060,
before which China aims to achieve carbon neutrality, according to the report.
Renewable sources are expected to generate 93pc of power in 2060. This would be
a significant change from the current mix in China. Renewables made up 52pc of
total capacity of 2,920GW in 2023, while thermal power capacity was 48pc,
according to China's National Energy Administration. Renewable sources and
thermal power, which is mainly coal-fired, generated 30pc and 70pc of power
respectively in 2023, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics.
"By 2050, coal power will preliminarily serve as an emergency and backup
resource for the grid, providing essential support in critical power events,"
the report said. Solar and wind Significant growth in solar and wind
installations is expected to lead China's energy transition, supported by lower
costs. Solar power capacity is projected to reach 6,370-7,240GW in 2060,
accounting for two-thirds of total capacity, while wind power capacity could
reach 2,950-3,460GW, according to the report. Among the installed solar
capacity, 70pc will be distributed systems, which are smaller power generation
systems compared to large, utility-scale systems. Costs of solar and wind power
generation in China have fallen by 80pc and 60pc respectively over the past
decade, the report said. The report elaborated on ways to manage the volatility
of renewable sources via various energy storage systems. Solar power output
usually increases rapidly during the day with abundant sunlight. When output
exceeds the power load, energy is stored in pumped hydro, chemical, hydrogen and
electrofuels, electric vehicles and industry demand response storages. These
storage systems can then discharge electricity to generate power in the evening
when solar output stops, and when wind output is low. New energy storage
solutions are expected to support increased electrification in China, which will
play a key role in reducing the country's carbon emissions, the report said.
Electrification involves replacing technologies or processes that use fossil
fuels with electrically-powered equivalents, such as electric vehicles. By Jinhe
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